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1 EUR/USD: real weakness of the greenback or vain hopes for progress in the negotiations?
In recent weeks, the greenback has shown quite an impressive rally. However, an ambiguous statistical data from the...
In recent weeks, the greenback has shown quite an impressive rally. However, an ambiguous statistical data from the United States, and then positive news about the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing, forced it to switch to defense mode against most of the currencies from the G10. Against the background of improving global risk appetite, the EUR/USD pair fell to the bottom of the level of 1.1250, recovered above the level of 1.1300 and today is trying to gain a foothold...

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In recent weeks, the greenback has shown quite an impressive rally. However, an ambiguous statistical data from the United States, and then positive news about the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing, forced it to switch to defense mode against most of the currencies from the G10.

Against the background of improving global risk appetite, the EUR/USD pair fell to the bottom of the level of 1.1250, recovered above the level of 1.1300 and today is trying to gain a foothold above this mark.

Last week, the dollar received the main blow from the internal statistics, which turned out to be significantly worse than the forecast values. In particular, in December, retail sales in the United States declined at the fastest rate in almost a decade, which has led to renewed talk about preparing for a slowdown in the US economy and the best times for the greenback are over.

It is assumed that this week a weak report on retail sales will continue to put pressure on the dollar, especially since the minutes of the Fed's January meeting, which will be published this Wednesday, are likely to confirm the regulator's intention to maintain a wait-and-see position in March.

At the same time, the main negative factor for the single European currency is the fact that the ECB and the European Commission have recently revised downward forecasts for GDP growth and inflation in the region, which in turn postpones the ECB interest rate hike to a later date. In addition, there is still tension on the political scene: the UK's uncontrolled exit from the EU is still on the agenda. Investors are not optimistic about the possibility of introducing trade duties on European cars from the United States.

Currently, positive market expectations regarding the course of trade negotiations between the US and China are the main factor supporting the euro.

Last Saturday, US President Donald Trump announced significant progress in this direction.

It should be noted that previously something similar could already be observed. One can only hope that the White House's comments on the "good pace" of the talks (which, by the way, only two weeks are left) are a sign of a real breakthrough, not false promises.

Thus, to some extent, the further growth of the EUR/USD pair will depend on whether the parties enter into a trade agreement or the United States will extend the deadline for signing it.

However, according to experts, the "bulls" on the euro are not particularly counting on anything, since only a breakthrough above the mark of 1.15 will be a sign of upward dynamics.

News 19 Feb 2019, 00:49 UTC+00
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2 EUR/USD analysis for February 19, 2019
Potential end of the upward correction. Watch for selling opportunities. The first downward target is set at the...
EUR/USD is trading sideways at the price of 1.1283. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, we found potential end of the upward correction (running flat) at the price of 1.1333, which is a sign that buying looks risky. EUR failed to test the high at 1.1340, which is a sign that buyers are weak. We also found the breakout of the intraday support trendline inside of the running flat trendlines, which is another sign of weakness. We expect re-test of the lower diagonal and potential even...

analytics5c6bea9504c4c.png

EUR/USD is trading sideways at the price of 1.1283. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, we found potential end of the upward correction (running flat) at the price of 1.1333, which is a sign that buying looks risky. EUR failed to test the high at 1.1340, which is a sign that buyers are weak. We also found the breakout of the intraday support trendline inside of the running flat trendlines, which is another sign of weakness. We expect re-test of the lower diagonal and potential even the breakout.

Trading recommendation: We are bearish on EUR/USD from 1.1285 and protective stop at 1.1345. Profit targets are set at the price of 1.1233 and 1.1130.

Forex analysis 19 Feb 2019, 10:39 UTC+00
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3 GBP/USD: plan for the European session on February 19. The growth of the British pound depends on Theresa May's negotiations in Brussels
GBP/USD: plan for the European session on February 19. The growth of the British pound depends on Theresa May's...
To open long positions on GBP/USD you need: Today, all attention will be focused on the report on the UK labor market. Good fundamental data will lead to a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2926, which will give new impetus to growth in the area of highs of 1.2986 and 1.3047, where I recommend taking profits. In case of a downward correction, which can be observed today in the first half of the day, amid lack of clarity in negotiations between the British prime...

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Today, all attention will be focused on the report on the UK labor market. Good fundamental data will lead to a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2926, which will give new impetus to growth in the area of highs of 1.2986 and 1.3047, where I recommend taking profits. In case of a downward correction, which can be observed today in the first half of the day, amid lack of clarity in negotiations between the British prime minister and EU representatives, long positions in GBP/USD can be returned to a false breakdown from the support of 1.2868 or rebound from a low of 1.2812, where the lower limit of the ascending channel passes.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

The formation of a false breakdown in the area of the resistance of 1.2926 will be the first signal to open short positions in the pound in order to reduce and test the support of 1.2868, where I recommend to take profits. However, the main goal of sellers will be at least in the area of 1.2812, but even its test will not lead to the resumption of the downward trend. This requires an update of the level of 1.2769. In case of further growth of GBP/USD, after a good report on the labor market is released, you can take a closer look at short positions at the rebound from the high of 1.2986.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving, which indicates the formation of the lateral nature of the market and bullish advantage.

Bollinger bands

The pound's growth for today may limit the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.2940. A break of the lower border around 1.2895 may lead to a larger decrease in the pair.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
Forex analysis 19 Feb 2019, 07:25 UTC+00
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4 Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Feb 19, 2019
When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as ZEW Economic Sentiment and German ZEW...
When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as ZEW Economic Sentiment and German ZEW Economic Sentiment. The US will also publish the economic data such as NAHB Housing Market Index, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1360. Strong Resistance: 1.1354. Original Resistance: 1.1344. Inner Sell Area: 1.1334. Target Inner Area: 1.1311. Inner Buy Area:...

analytics5c6b6f0613f10.jpg

When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as ZEW Economic Sentiment and German ZEW Economic Sentiment. The US will also publish the economic data such as NAHB Housing Market Index, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1360. Strong Resistance: 1.1354. Original Resistance: 1.1344. Inner Sell Area: 1.1334. Target Inner Area: 1.1311. Inner Buy Area: 1.1287. Original Support: 1.1277. Strong Support: 1.1267. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1261. (Disclaimer)

Forex analysis 19 Feb 2019, 01:51 UTC+00
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5 Trading recommendations for the currency pair GBPUSD - placement of trading orders (February 18)
At the end of the last trading week, the pound / dollar currency pair showed a high volatility of 112 points. As a...
At the end of the last trading week , the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed a high volatility of 112 points. As a result, it had a full-fledged working out of the predicted level and a corrective movement. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have the execution of the previously set forecast, wherein the price still managed to find a pivot point in the surface of the level 1.2770. After the correction phase came, it rolled back to a periodic value of 1.2920. What was the...

At the end of the last trading week , the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed a high volatility of 112 points. As a result, it had a full-fledged working out of the predicted level and a corrective movement. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have the execution of the previously set forecast, wherein the price still managed to find a pivot point in the surface of the level 1.2770. After the correction phase came, it rolled back to a periodic value of 1.2920. What was the reason for this kind of amplitude? Of course, we can say that there was a technical correction, which we had been waiting for a long time, and this might be true, but you should not forget about the news and news background, which made a significant contribution to this correction. Meanwhile, we have a fairly wide news flow on Friday, wherein the British retail sales statistics first come out, which surprised the market with its growth: Prev. 3, 1% ---> Forecast 3.4% ---> Fct. 4.2%. This news has already set the inertial course for buyers. After that, there is a statistics on industrial production in the United States, where there is a decline from 4.1% to 3.8. Along with that, data on retail sales in the United States was released on Thursday (from 4.1% to 2.3%). Thus, we have a pretty strong negative background on the dollar. Now, we understand why this kind of movement has taken place.

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Today, in terms of the economic calendar , we have a lull, there is no news, and the States are celebrating the "Presidential Day" holiday. Therefore, trading volumes can be reduced. Of course, in the absence of news, you should not forget about the information background, which is always enough around Brexit. For example, on weekends, Prime Minister Theresa May sent a letter to the members of the Conservative Party, in which she urged them to rally in front of Brexit. "Without an agreement on withdrawal, we run the risk that there will be a force in parliament that will stop Brexit completely," the letter says from May. Now, Theresa May intends to return to Brussels for the next discussion with Jean-Claude Juncker, where she will persuade him to make at least some changes to the agreement once again.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see how the quotation with positive accuracy reached a periodic level of 1.2920, which previously played the role of a pillar in the market. It is likely to assume that the quotation will try to slow down in an attempt to work out this level in a downward direction. In return, traders try to consider both variations at once. The first one is to rebound from the level, while the second will be a possible breakdown in case of fixation above.

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Based on the available data, it is possible to break down a number of variations. Let's consider them:

- Positions to buy, as we said in the previous review, traders considered buying positions from a slowdown of 1.2770, and when all predicted coordinates were reached. Now, traders monitor the level of 1.2770 for breakdown. And in the case of a clear price fixing above, with the preservation of bullish interest, long positions can resume.

- We consider selling positions in the case of mining level 1.2920, lower than 1.2890. Perspective 1.2850--1.2800 --- 1.2770.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing the different sector of timeframes (TF ), we see that there was a downward interest against the background of the primary level of 1.2920 in the short term. On the other hand, intraday perspective focuses on the recent corrective movement while the medium term perspective maintains a downward interest against the background of the market.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(February 18 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 31 points. If stagnation occurs at the level of 1.2920, then the volatility will be fixated on a small amplitude. But in the case of a test or breakdown, we can see an increase in in volatility to the daily average.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.2920 *; 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1,3200 *; 1.3300; 1.3440 **; 1.3580 *; 1.3700.

Support areas: 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

Forex analysis 18 Feb 2019, 23:37 UTC+00
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6 EUR/USD: the next resistance level is 1.1370
The dollar index goes down, while the euro rises in price for almost all currency pairs: the first trading day of the...
The dollar index goes down, while the euro rises in price for almost all currency pairs: the first trading day of the week continued the trend from Friday, when the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the annual low and restored all lost positions. Today, the downward price dynamics have continued. The main driving force behind the EUR/USD's price growth is the news background on the prospects for trade relations between the US and China. Let me remind you that this week the parties will resume...

The dollar index goes down, while the euro rises in price for almost all currency pairs: the first trading day of the week continued the trend from Friday, when the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the annual low and restored all lost positions. Today, the downward price dynamics have continued.

The main driving force behind the EUR/USD's price growth is the news background on the prospects for trade relations between the US and China. Let me remind you that this week the parties will resume the negotiation process, which may culminate in the conclusion of a "truce" between the two countries. To be more precise, the parties can only come to a framework agreement, where only the main positions of the future document will be indicated. This "letter of intent" will form the basis of a future deal, the details of which will be discussed between the leaders of the People's Republic of China and the United States during a personal meeting.

Over the weekend, Donald Trump said that "great progress" had already been made on the issue of concluding a trade deal, and he is optimistic about the prospects for the upcoming talks. A similar position was voiced by the leader of China Xi Jinping. According to him, the parties managed to achieve significant success in resolving trade disputes. In unison with their leaders, the negotiations and high-ranking officials, in particular, the US Treasury Secretary, the US Trade Representative, and the Vice-Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, Liu He, appreciated the negotiations.

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Such optimism was reflected in market sentiment. The US dollar, which is usually in demand against the backdrop of increasing global problems, began to actively slow down. The dollar index moved away from local highs in the area of 96.9, not finding the strength to test the 97th figure. And although the decline in this indicator is fairly smooth, the causal link is obvious: the closer Beijing and Washington are to the deal, the weaker the position of dollar bulls.

However, the EUR/USD did not increase only because of this factor. The Brexit theme also concerns traders of the pair, given the approaching deadline. It is worth noting that the news flow regarding the prospects of the "divorce process" does not always affect the pair (unlike the pound, where this topic is in indisputable priority). The single currency reacts to Brexit news mainly when the parties closely approach the red lines of the negotiation process. This week Theresa May will hold talks with the EU leadership (in particular, with Juncker) and with the leaders of the EU countries.

The central issue is the regime of the Irish border, namely, the mechanism of the backstop, which is the main irritating factor for the majority of British deputies. During the weekend there were rumors that the representatives of France offered Brussels to make some certain concessions on this issue, so that the negotiations would move from a dead point. Although journalists later denied this information, traders are still optimistic about the future, in the hope of a long-awaited compromise on the backstop issue. The European currency follows the pound, although at the moment there are no significant reasons for the price increase: there are a lot of rumors around the upcoming talks, which sometimes contradict each other.

In such circumstances, it is impossible to make any clear predictions, so this fundamental factor can not be called reliable. By the way, a UK government spokesman said today that following a European voyage by the prime minister, the Cabinet could change the terms of the deal or even delay Brexit. This suggests that London doubts that Theresa May will be able to convince her colleagues that the terms of the deal need to be revised. But traders are still inclined to believe optimistic rumors, so both the pound and the euro show a positive trend.

The Bundesbank report published today also provided indirect support to the EUR/USD pair. Recently, news from Germany does not please investors: economists of the German government revised the forecast of GDP growth downwards, and macroeconomic indicators for December and January were released in the "red zone".

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The report of the German central bank also acknowledged the slowdown of the main parameters of the national economy. But at the same time, members of the regulators stressed that they did not observe any signs that a slowdown in GDP growth would turn into a decline in the economy. Such an unexpected conclusion was supported by the European currency, especially against the background of Monday's nearly empty economic calendar. During the European session, the Bundesbank report became the only more or less significant source of news, while the American sites are closed today on the occasion of the celebration of Presidents Day.

Thus, the euro-dollar pair has the potential for further correctional growth: today, the price tested the first resistance level of 1.1340 (the Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart). If the pair bulls overcome this barrier, they will approach a stronger level - 1.1370 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands on the same timeframe).

Forex analysis 19 Feb 2019, 00:19 UTC+00
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7 Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, Feb 19, 2019
In Asia, Japan will release the Current Account and the US will publish some economic data such as NAHB Housing...
In Asia, Japan will release the Current Account and the US will publish some economic data such as NAHB Housing Market Index. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance. 3: 111.10. Resistance. 2: 110.88. Resistance. 1: 110.67. Support. 1: 110.41. Support. 2: 110.19. Support. 3: 109.97. (Disclaimer)

analytics5c6b6e73e41c1.jpg

In Asia, Japan will release the Current Account and the US will publish some economic data such as NAHB Housing Market Index. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance. 3: 111.10. Resistance. 2: 110.88. Resistance. 1: 110.67. Support. 1: 110.41. Support. 2: 110.19. Support. 3: 109.97. (Disclaimer)

Forex analysis 19 Feb 2019, 01:49 UTC+00
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8 Technical analysis for Gold for February 19, 2019
Gold price is making higher highs as expected after breaking above the short-term resistance at $1,317. In our past...
Gold price is making higher highs as expected after breaking above the short-term resistance at $1,317. In our past analysis I mentioned that $1,317 was the key resistance for more upside. Breaking above it would provide a bullish signal. Purple lines - bullish channel Yellow rectangle - major support Black line - resistance Gold price remains in a bullish trend as price continues to make higher highs and higher lows. Support remains at $1,300 and if broken we could see the end of the...

Gold price is making higher highs as expected after breaking above the short-term resistance at $1,317. In our past analysis I mentioned that $1,317 was the key resistance for more upside. Breaking above it would provide a bullish signal.

analytics5c6bb795c5f70.png

Purple lines - bullish channel

Yellow rectangle - major support

Black line - resistance

Gold price remains in a bullish trend as price continues to make higher highs and higher lows. Support remains at $1,300 and if broken we could see the end of the up trend since August. Resistance and previous highs were broken yesterday but price remains around this area. As long as price is above $1,311 we continue to expect to see $1,330-40 area.

Forex analysis 19 Feb 2019, 07:02 UTC+00
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9 EUR/USD: plan for the European session on February 19. The eurozone consumer sentiment report might help the euro
EUR/USD: plan for the European session on February 19. The eurozone consumer sentiment report might help the euro
To open long positions on EURUSD you need: The unsuccessful attempt to consolidate above the high around 1.1325 led to the euro's downward correction in the afternoon. Currently, buyers are counting on a good report on consumer sentiment in Germany and the eurozone, which may lead to the formation of a false breakdown in the first half of the day in the support area of 1.1288. This will be the first signal to buy euros, based on age and the test of yesterday's high in the area of 1.1332,...

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

The unsuccessful attempt to consolidate above the high around 1.1325 led to the euro's downward correction in the afternoon. Currently, buyers are counting on a good report on consumer sentiment in Germany and the eurozone, which may lead to the formation of a false breakdown in the first half of the day in the support area of 1.1288. This will be the first signal to buy euros, based on age and the test of yesterday's high in the area of 1.1332, where I recommend taking profits. The main target of the bulls will be the new resistance 1.1366. In case of a decline below the support level of 1.1288, I recommend that you look at long positions in EUR/USD on the support test of 1.1262 or on the rebound from the low of the month in the region of 1.1235.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Euro sellers can use eurozone statistics, and in case of weak reports, break below support at 1.1288, which will increase pressure on the pair and lead to a return to the area of a low of 1.1262 and 1.1235, where I recommend taking profits. In the upward correction is preserved in the first half of the day, the signal for opening short positions in the euro will be an unfortunate consolidation above the resistance of 1.1332. In a different scenario, it is possible to sell EUR/USD on a rebound from a large high around 1.1366.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade returned to the area of 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the formation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In case of growth, the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1332 will limit the upward potential of the euro. A break of the lower border in the area of 1.1288 will increase the pressure on the pair.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
Forex analysis 19 Feb 2019, 07:20 UTC+00
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10 Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 19, 2019
The complex correction in wave ii continues to use up time as it moves sideways. To break out of this deadlock, we...
The complex correction in wave ii continues to use up time as it moves sideways. To break out of this deadlock, we need a clear break above minor resistance at 125.54 that will yield a rally higher to 125.95 on the way higher to 129.48 and ultimately towards 133.54. Support is seen at 124.67 and key-support is at 124.38 a break below the later, will extend the correction in wave ii even more. R3: 125.95 R2: 125.46 R1: 125.09 Pivot: 124.85 S1: 124.67 S2: 124.38 S3: 124.15 ...

analytics5c6b9eaeb01b3.png

The complex correction in wave ii continues to use up time as it moves sideways. To break out of this deadlock, we need a clear break above minor resistance at 125.54 that will yield a rally higher to 125.95 on the way higher to 129.48 and ultimately towards 133.54.

Support is seen at 124.67 and key-support is at 124.38 a break below the later, will extend the correction in wave ii even more.

R3: 125.95

R2: 125.46

R1: 125.09

Pivot: 124.85

S1: 124.67

S2: 124.38

S3: 124.15

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 124.65 with our stop placed at 124.15

Forex analysis 19 Feb 2019, 05:15 UTC+00
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