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1 Gold is waiting for the verdict of the Fed
Will the results of the March FOMC meeting be able to clarify the fate of the precious metal
The best start of the American stock market since 1991 and unwilling to break the "bullish" trend provoked the USD index to a 3% gold correction. Investors began to doubt that the 14% rally from August lows levels could continue. Its key drivers were concerns about the slowdown of the global economy under the influence of trade wars and the low rates of the global debt market. If the States and China agree, and the global GDP, headed by the Celestial Empire, goes to a V-shaped recovery, the...

The best start of the American stock market since 1991 and unwilling to break the "bullish" trend provoked the USD index to a 3% gold correction. Investors began to doubt that the 14% rally from August lows levels could continue. Its key drivers were concerns about the slowdown of the global economy under the influence of trade wars and the low rates of the global debt market. If the States and China agree, and the global GDP, headed by the Celestial Empire, goes to a V-shaped recovery, the precious metal will have a hard time. However, other trumps can play on his side.

Goldman Sachs believes that different sectors of the American and world economy will lead to a weakening of the US dollar, which will allow the bulls to restore the uptrend by XAU / USD. A leading indicator from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank indicates a decline in US GDP growth to less than 1% in the first quarter. At the same time, investors believe that the eurozone has reached the bottom, and large-scale fiscal and monetary stimulus will help China. The situation abroad begins to look better than in the States, which, as a rule, leads to a weakening of the USD index.

Enough exchange funds react sensitively to the change of the gold market conjuncture. Their reserves have declined since the beginning of the year from 73.3 million to 71.8 million ounces. At the same time, the sluggish dynamics of the European economy and the negative rates of the German debt market contribute to the high demand for ETF products from the Old World. It has been increasing for three years in a row, and, most likely, will continue to do so. This circumstance allows us to count on the recovery of the uptrend on XAU / USD.

Gold dynamics and ETF stocks

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Structure and dynamics of demand for ETF products

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If we proceed from the assumption that the economy of the Middle Kingdom will not be restored V, but U-shaped and the US stock market will soon change fear, then the medium-term outlook for the precious metal looks optimistic. Moreover, the rates of the global debt market amid slower GDP growth and inflation are more likely to remain at historically low levels, and the completion of the Fed's monetary policy normalization cycle will help the dollar to weaken.

In the short term, the fate of the precious metal will be determined by Jerome Powell and the company. Fed concerns about the state of the US and world economy, lower FOMC forecasts for the federal funds rate and GDP are the "bearish" factors for the US dollar. On the other hand, the dovish rhetoric of the Fed chairman will support US stocks, improve global risk appetite, and continue to put pressure on safe-haven assets. Gold risks falling into consolidation in anticipation of new drivers capable of leading it from this state.

Technically, the correction to the CD wave continues as part of the transformation of the "Shark" pattern at 5-0. Rebound from the levels of $ 1307 and $ 1315 per ounce will allow the "bears" to continue the attack. To restore the "bullish" trend, confident assaults of resistances at $ 1333 and $ 1340 are required.

Forex analysis 20 Mar 2019, 13:41 UTC+00
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2 EUR / USD plan for the US session on March 20. All attention to the Fed meeting
The situation in the euro has not changed in comparison with the morning forecast, however, buyers managed to show...
To open long positions in EUR / USD pair, you need: The situation in the euro has not changed in comparison with the morning forecast, however, buyers managed to show themselves from the support level of 1.1337, to which I paid attention. The main task of the bulls remains a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1370, which will lead to a new wave of growth in the area of 1.4107 maximum, where I recommend fixing the profit. With the scenario of EUR/USD decline in the...

To open long positions in EUR / USD pair, you need:

The situation in the euro has not changed in comparison with the morning forecast, however, buyers managed to show themselves from the support level of 1.1337, to which I paid attention. The main task of the bulls remains a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1370, which will lead to a new wave of growth in the area of 1.4107 maximum, where I recommend fixing the profit. With the scenario of EUR/USD decline in the second half of the day, long positions can only be expected after a false breakdown in today's low of 1.1337 or a rebound from the larger support area of 1.1301 and 1.1278.

To open short positions in EUR / USD pair, you need:

If the Fed announces a return to soft monetary policy in the afternoon, the pressure on the US dollar will increase. In this scenario, it is best to rely on short positions after the update of the maximum around 1.1407 and 1.1460. If the main approaches of the Fed does not change, the bears can return to the market. The unsuccessful consolidation above the resistance of 1.1370 will be the first signal to open short positions in order to break and consolidate below support 1.1337. A breakthrough of 1.1337 will lead to a larger sale of EUR/USD and lows in the area of 1.1301 and 1.1278, where I recommend taking profits.

More in the video forecast for March 20

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade has moved to the area of 30 and 50 day moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market before the release of important data.

Bollinger bands

Volatility in the Bollinger Bands indicator is very low, which does not give signals on market entry.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

Forex analysis 20 Mar 2019, 13:02 UTC+00
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3 Analysis of Gold for March 20, 2019
Broken upward trendline and failed test of the high. Watch for selling opportunities with the target at the price of...
Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1.304.77. Bearish momentum is still going on, be careful with buying. According to the M30 time – frame, I have found double fail tests of the high at $1.310.65, which is a sign that buyers don't have power for any strong push. Gold did break the rising trendline, which is another sign of weakness. Bearish divergence on the MACD oscillator is another sign of waning buying power. Resistance level is seen at the price of...

Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1.304.77. Bearish momentum is still going on, be careful with buying.

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According to the M30 time – frame, I have found double fail tests of the high at $1.310.65, which is a sign that buyers don't have power for any strong push. Gold did break the rising trendline, which is another sign of weakness. Bearish divergence on the MACD oscillator is another sign of waning buying power. Resistance level is seen at the price of $1.310.65 and the support is seen at $1.292.40. Watch for a bearish flag before you sell.

Trading recommendation: We closed our long position on Gold on the breakeven and we are looking to short Gold. If you are aggressive, you can sell from $1.302.00 with the take profit at $1.292.50 and protective stop at $1.311.00.

Forex analysis 20 Mar 2019, 15:19 UTC+00
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4 EUR/USD analysis for March 20, 2019
Upward momentum on EUR. Watch for buying opportunities. The main target is set at the price of 1.1500
EUR/USD has been trading sideways at around 1.1358. Demand is still buoyant, so be careful when selling. According to the H1 time – frame, I have found a potential bullish Wolfe wave pattern in progress. The projected target for the upside is at the price of 1.1500. The price should go towards the estimated target level. Currently there is a running flat bearish correction in creation and bearish divergence on the macd oscillator, which are signs that EUR/USD might trade a bit lower...

EUR/USD has been trading sideways at around 1.1358. Demand is still buoyant, so be careful when selling.

analytics5c925c7fc15fd.png

According to the H1 time – frame, I have found a potential bullish Wolfe wave pattern in progress. The projected target for the upside is at the price of 1.1500. The price should go towards the estimated target level. Currently there is a running flat bearish correction in creation and bearish divergence on the macd oscillator, which are signs that EUR/USD might trade a bit lower before new buyers join the market. Support level is seen at the price of 1.1293 and the key resistance is seen at the price of 1.1512.

Trading recommendation: We are bullish on the EUR from 1.1358. Protective stop is placed at the price of 1.1495 and the main target is set at the price of 1.1500

Forex analysis 20 Mar 2019, 15:31 UTC+00
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5 Technical analysis for Gold for March 20, 2019
Gold price tried to break above short-term resistance yesterday but instead it got rejected. Not only were the bulls...
Gold price tried to break above short-term resistance yesterday but instead it got rejected. Not only were the bulls unable to break resistance, price has broken through the short-term support together with the RSI. It seems that new selling pressure could start again for the next leg down to $1,250. Red rectangle - short-term resistance Blue rectangle - target if short-term resistance is broken Blue lines - short-term support trend lines Red line - RSI support trend line broken Gold...

Gold price tried to break above short-term resistance yesterday but instead it got rejected. Not only were the bulls unable to break resistance, price has broken through the short-term support together with the RSI. It seems that new selling pressure could start again for the next leg down to $1,250.

analytics5c91edb51dd0f.png

Red rectangle - short-term resistance

Blue rectangle - target if short-term resistance is broken

Blue lines - short-term support trend lines

Red line - RSI support trend line broken

Gold price has broken below the blue upward sloping support trend line. This is a bearish sign. However price is still above $1,300 and this implies that bulls have not given up yet. The RSI is also showing reversal signs. Gold bulls should hold above $1,300 and especially above $1,292. Breaking below $1,292 will increase dramatically the chances for a move towards $1,250-60. Only a break above $1,312 will bring bulls back in control of the short-term trend. Until then bears can still hope for a new round of selling pressure.

Forex analysis 20 Mar 2019, 07:40 UTC+00
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6 Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (March 20)
For the last trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed a low volatility of 69 points. As a result, it...
For the last trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed a low volatility of 69 points. As a result, it remained within the previously formed range. From the point of view of technical analysis, nothing has changed. The quotation continues to move in the range of 1,3200 / 1,3300, consistently working out the boundaries. Looking at the news background, we see that the speaker of the British Parliament, John Bercow, refused to vote for Brexit for the third time, referring to the...

For the last trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed a low volatility of 69 points. As a result, it remained within the previously formed range. From the point of view of technical analysis, nothing has changed. The quotation continues to move in the range of 1,3200 / 1,3300, consistently working out the boundaries. Looking at the news background, we see that the speaker of the British Parliament, John Bercow, refused to vote for Brexit for the third time, referring to the agreement of 1604, according to which the question is not "voted on" again and again, unless there are key changes in its formulation. Now, London must request a deferment from Brussels until March 21. In turn, the European Union has already declared that any delay in the process to Brexit will cost the EU expenses, and urged London to present a clear plan. From the point of view of the information background, we see that there was data on unemployment in Britain yesterday, where there is a decline from 4.0% to 3.9%. In turn, the number of applications for unemployment benefits for February show an increase from 15.7K to 27.0K with a forecast of 13.1K. As a result, with such background and statistics, the pound remains within the range.

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Today, we can say that the key day of the week, is the meeting of the Federal Commission on open market operations. Experts suggest that the Fed may demonstrate some measures to mitigate monetary policy, and, of course, at least say something about the fate of the rate. In any outcome, the current lull in the trading schedule can be replaced by an increase in volatility for this event. In Britain, waiting for data on inflation, where, according to forecasts, its level will not change, which is 1.8%.

United Kingdom 12:30 MSK - Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y / y) (Feb): Prev. 1.8% ---> Forecast 1.8%

United States 21:30 MSK - FOMC press conference

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we continue to observe the swing at 1.3200 / 1.3300, where the quote is currently working off the upper limit, heading down. It is probably assume that the current amplitude is maintained, with a movement towards 1.3220. What to expect next? Meetings of the Fed, where it is better to take a wait-and-see position, tracking the breakdown of existing boundaries.

Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:

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- We consider buying positions in the case of a lower limit of 1.3220, with a smaller volume.But due to the meeting, this tactic can be risky. Most of the traders took a waiting position, tracking clear fixes higher than 1.3300.

- Positions for sale were initially considered after working out the border of 1.3300. Now, the transaction is being led towards 1.3220. If we do not have deals, then it is better not to twitch and take a waiting position and monitor the lower limit of 1.3200 for breakdown.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing the different timeframe (TF) sector, we see that there is a variable upward interest in the short term. Intraday perspective is set to fall while the medium-term perspective maintains the upward interest against the background of the past

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(March 20, was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 24 points, which is an extremely low value for a given time segment. It is likely to assume that due to the upcoming meeting, the volatility of the day may increase.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1,3200 *; 1.3130 *; 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

Forex analysis 20 Mar 2019, 07:33 UTC+00
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7 Markets are stable in anticipation of the outcome of the Fed meeting
TOM FOMC will present updated macroeconomic forecasts for the markets tonight and is expected to leave the target...
TOM FOMC will present updated macroeconomic forecasts for the markets tonight and is expected to leave the target rate in the range of 2.25% -2.50% unchanged. The Fed has no reason to change the tone of the accompanying comment for a more hawkish one. Moreover, there are well-founded concerns in which the Fed plans to have a one rate increase this year. At the end of the meeting, the dollar index runs the risk of going down, but volatility is unlikely to increase significantly, unless, of...

TOM FOMC will present updated macroeconomic forecasts for the markets tonight and is expected to leave the target rate in the range of 2.25% -2.50% unchanged. The Fed has no reason to change the tone of the accompanying comment for a more hawkish one. Moreover, there are well-founded concerns in which the Fed plans to have a one rate increase this year.

At the end of the meeting, the dollar index runs the risk of going down, but volatility is unlikely to increase significantly, unless, of course, the Fed finds some ways to surprise the players.

EURUSD

Investor confidence in the German economy rose to -3.6p in March against -13.4p a month earlier. The similar index for the eurozone as a whole rose from -16.6p to -2.5p. The dynamics are positive, reflecting serious changes in the prospects for the eurozone.

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Investors hope that the failure of 2018 will be surpassed, since a number of external factors for the eurozone provide grounds for such optimism. The probable postponement of Brexit reduces the risks. The announcement of the imminent completion of the US-China trade negotiations gives hope that the "world trade war" will not take place.

At the same time, optimism about the prospects for the eurozone remains cautious. The ECB recently lowered its forecast for economic growth. On Tuesday, advisers to the German government lowered their GDP forecast for 2019, from 1.6% to 0.8%, while noting that risks to the economy remain high. Nevertheless, the threat of recession, quite real a couple of months ago, is already over. This factor will contribute to the growth in demand for the euro amid uncertainty in the UK, the threat of China's slowdown and weak US tax reform results.

EURUSD reached the upper boundary of the downward channel, which was formed in the first months of this year. And with a high probability, today, there will be an attempt to overcome this border. The resistance zone is 1.1360 / 70, it is expected that after the announcement of the FOMC meeting results, the euro will resume growth and be able to gain a foothold with the intention to test the previous maximum of 1.1420 for stability.

GBPUSD

The unemployment rate in the UK for 3 months to January inclusively fell to 3.9% , which is the absolute minimum for 44 years. The result was unexpected for experts, while the number of employees has increased by 222 thousand, which serves as the maximum since 2015, and a record high employment rate of 76.1% was also noted.

Also during this period, the average wage rose above the forecasts. The result is 3.4% higher than the expected 3.2%.

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A noticeable improvement in the labor market has a simple explanation - the influx of labor migrants into the country has declined, fearing toughening labor legislation due to Brexit, despite the fact that the prepared agreement preserves the principles of labor migration for EU citizens. Reducing the amount of cheaper labor than UK citizens, labor objectively contributes to the growth of average wages and record levels of unemployment.

There is no doubt that the Bank of England will not react in any way to improve the employment situation. This will leave the monetary policy unchanged at the meeting on Thursday. The issue with Brexit is still on the agenda. There is no clarification on its decision, which means that we should not expect a resumption of investment inflows, and under these conditions, the Bank of England cannot plan any measures to tighten monetary policy.

On Thursday, Theresa May will ask for a postponement at the EU summit, since there are simply no other scenarios left after the speaker of the House of Commons of Berkou blocked an attempt to bring the agreement to a new vote. According to rumors, London will ask for a delay of 9 to 12 months, which means an extension of the period of uncertainty, thus ultimately will not allow the pound to resume growth.

The likelihood of increased volatility on the basis of the environment remains high, but the chances of the pound to consolidate above the recent high of 1.3379 are very little. More likely, trade in the range, support 1.3180. The pound will wait for the outcome of the EU summit.

Forex analysis 20 Mar 2019, 07:28 UTC+00
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8 Forecast for GBP/USD on March 20, 2019
On March 20, the pound sterling could shift uncertainty in the direction of lowering quotations
GBP/USD Yesterday, the British pound failed to reach a Fibonacci correction level of 110.0% at a price of 1.3321, the situation remained unchanged at the end of the day - the price still lies on the MACD four-hour chart, the double divergence with the Marlin oscillator did not change on a daily scale. On the four-hour chart, the marlin oscillator slightly entered the decline territory. Consolidating the price below the signal level 1.3210 (high of January) opens up the possibility of a...

GBP/USD

Yesterday, the British pound failed to reach a Fibonacci correction level of 110.0% at a price of 1.3321, the situation remained unchanged at the end of the day - the price still lies on the MACD four-hour chart, the double divergence with the Marlin oscillator did not change on a daily scale. On the four-hour chart, the marlin oscillator slightly entered the decline territory.

Consolidating the price below the signal level 1.3210 (high of January) opens up the possibility of a sharper fall to support the MACD line on the daily chart 1.3000.

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Forex analysis 20 Mar 2019, 07:23 UTC+00
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9 Technical analysis for EUR/USD for March 20, 2019
EUR/USD has reached our target area but there is still no sign of a reversal. Our medium-term view remains bearish as...
EUR/USD has reached our target area but there is still no sign of a reversal. Our medium-term view remains bearish as long as price is below 1.14, but bulls could still hope for a longer-term reversal as long as price holds above 1.13. Blue line - bearish divergence Red line -major resistance trend line Green line - support trend line Orange rectangle -short-term support Red rectangle - resistance area EUR/USD is trading above 1.1330 inside our target area, but still below the...

EUR/USD has reached our target area but there is still no sign of a reversal. Our medium-term view remains bearish as long as price is below 1.14, but bulls could still hope for a longer-term reversal as long as price holds above 1.13.

analytics5c91eebacb393.png

Blue line - bearish divergence

Red line -major resistance trend line

Green line - support trend line

Orange rectangle -short-term support

Red rectangle - resistance area

EUR/USD is trading above 1.1330 inside our target area, but still below the important long-term resistance trend line. As long as price is below this trend line I will remain bearish. The bearish RSI divergence supports my bearish view for a pullback at least towards 1.13 over the coming days. Breaking below 1.1290-1.13 support will open the way for a move towards 1.12 and lower. I prefer to be bearish at the current levels with stops above 1.14.

Forex analysis 20 Mar 2019, 07:49 UTC+00
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10 Wave analysis of EUR / USD for March 20. All attention to the Fed and Jerome Powell
On Tuesday, March 19, trading ended on EUR / USD by 15 bp increase for the pair EUR / USD. Thus, even at a very slow...
Wave counting analysis: On Tuesday, March 19, trading ended on EUR / USD by 15 bp increase for the pair EUR / USD. Thus, even at a very slow pace, wave a continues its construction with targets located near the 50.0% level on the older Fibonacci grid. A very important event for the couple will take place tonight - the Fed's press conference following a two-day meeting. Markets do not expect any changes in monetary policy, but they expect important statements from Jerome Powell. Thus,...

analytics5c91ec573f150.png

Wave counting analysis:

On Tuesday, March 19, trading ended on EUR / USD by 15 bp increase for the pair EUR / USD. Thus, even at a very slow pace, wave a continues its construction with targets located near the 50.0% level on the older Fibonacci grid. A very important event for the couple will take place tonight - the Fed's press conference following a two-day meeting. Markets do not expect any changes in monetary policy, but they expect important statements from Jerome Powell. Thus, Powell's strong statements can lead to the beginning of the construction of a correctional wave b, and the weak ones - to the lengthening of wave a.

Sales targets:

1.1269 - 38.2% Fibonacci (small grid)

1,1234 - 23.6% Fibonacci (small grid)

Purchase goals:

1.1373 - 50.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair presumably continues to build the first wave of the upward trend. Now I recommend buying a pair with targets located near the mark of 1.1373, which corresponds to 50.0% Fibonacci, but take into account that the construction of a correctional wave b may soon begin. Special care will be needed tonight, as important news from the Fed can lead to sharp reversals on the instrument.

Forex analysis 20 Mar 2019, 08:52 UTC+00
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