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1 April 23, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
Significant bearish rejection was demonstrated earlier around the price level of 1.3120 Since then, Short-term...
On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380. A weekly bearish gap pushed the pair below the uptrend line (almost reaching 1.2960) before the bullish breakout above short-term bearish channel was achieved on March 11. Shortly after, the GBPUSD pair demonstrated weak bullish momentum towards 1.3200 then 1.3360 where the GBPUSD failed to achieve a higher high above the previous top achieved on February 27. Instead, the depicted recent bearish channel was...

analytics5cbf2ba92a97d.jpg

On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380.

A weekly bearish gap pushed the pair below the uptrend line (almost reaching 1.2960) before the bullish breakout above short-term bearish channel was achieved on March 11.

Shortly after, the GBPUSD pair demonstrated weak bullish momentum towards 1.3200 then 1.3360 where the GBPUSD failed to achieve a higher high above the previous top achieved on February 27.

Instead, the depicted recent bearish channel was established.

Significant bearish pressure was demonstrated towards 1.3150 - 1.3120 where the depicted uptrend line failed to provide any bullish support leading to obvious bearish breakdown.

On March 29, the price levels of 1.2980 (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel) demonstrated significant bullish rejection.

This brought the GBPUSD pair again towards the price zone of (1.3160-1.3180) where the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel as well as the backside of the depicted uptrend line came to meet the pair.

Bearish rejection was anticipated around the mentioned price levels (1.3150-1.3180). However, the GBPUSD bullish pullback failed to pursue towards the mentioned zone.

Instead, significant bearish rejection was demonstrated earlier around the price level of 1.3120.

Since then, Short-term outlook has turned into bearish towards 1.2900, 1.2850 then 1.2800 where the lower limit of the depicted channel comes to meet the GBPUSD pair.

Forex analysis 23 Apr 2019, 14:16 UTC+00
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2 Bitcoin analysis for April 23, 2019
BTC is approaching key resistance at the price of $5.700. Watch for potential reversal
From America to the United Kingdom and from Russia to Australia, cryptocurrency taxation in major bitcoin strongholds is complicated. Contradictory or non-existent laws, excessive red tape, and maddeningly vague guidelines have conspired to make the tax-paying process more arduous than it need be. Now, a number of advocates are pushing for simplified crypto tax guidelines. Fixing the taxation will be main focus in the next period for cryptos. Technical picture: According to the H4...

From America to the United Kingdom and from Russia to Australia, cryptocurrency taxation in major bitcoin strongholds is complicated. Contradictory or non-existent laws, excessive red tape, and maddeningly vague guidelines have conspired to make the tax-paying process more arduous than it need be. Now, a number of advocates are pushing for simplified crypto tax guidelines. Fixing the taxation will be main focus in the next period for cryptos.

Technical picture:

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According to the H4 time-frame, as we mentioned yesterday, the potential for bull move and re-test of upper channel diagonal was in the play and that exactly happened. Since the BTC is trading near the critical resistance at $5.700, our advice is to watch for potential reversal and confirmation of reversal. To confirm reversal, you want to see series of lower lows and lower highs. For now, buyers are in control and the next upward station is set at $5.700. In case of reversal, watch for supports at $5.327, $5.191 and $4.650.

Forex analysis 23 Apr 2019, 12:36 UTC+00
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3 USD/CHF. The franc drops to multi-year lows
Today, the US dollar is showing steady growth across the market amid favorable corporate reporting for the first...
Today, the US dollar is showing steady growth across the market amid favorable corporate reporting for the first quarter of this year. Such dynamics is reflected in all dollar pairs, but among them we can separately distinguish the USD/CHF. The weakness of the franc has been celebrated for more than a month. In early April, the greenback overcame the level of parity against the Swiss currency for the first time since January 2017. Today, the pair has updated a two-year high, jumping to the...

Today, the US dollar is showing steady growth across the market amid favorable corporate reporting for the first quarter of this year. Such dynamics is reflected in all dollar pairs, but among them we can separately distinguish the USD/CHF.

The weakness of the franc has been celebrated for more than a month. In early April, the greenback overcame the level of parity against the Swiss currency for the first time since January 2017. Today, the pair has updated a two-year high, jumping to the level of 1.0227. Such dynamics is caused not only by the revaluation of the US currency - the "chief" also becomes cheaper for its own reasons, which can be clearly seen from the dynamics of the EUR/CHF cross pair.

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As you know, the Swiss regulator often looks back on its European counterparts - the economic interrelation forces one to consider (or at least take into account) their maneuvers. For example, after easing the monetary policy of the ECB, the SNB decided to introduce a negative rate, subsequently reducing the list of so-called "beneficiaries."

Now, when the European regulator actually announced its intention to start the reverse process (having completed QE and talking about the possibility of raising the rate next year), a similar reaction was expected from the SNB. But today the chairman of the central bank of Switzerland empathically and categorically rejected this opportunity. Thomas Jordan said that such a decision was dictated primarily by low inflation, which still cannot reach even the one percent mark. So, according to the latest data, the consumer price index in March rose to 0.7% in annual terms and to 0.5% on a monthly basis. The structure of the indicator suggests that a slight growth in inflation is due to the increase in prices for international tours and air travel. However, despite the positive dynamics, the rate of inflation growth looks extremely weak. For example, from May to October last year, the CPI fluctuated in the range of 1% -1.2% (y/y). Then the index began to gradually decline, and in January it reached a low of 0.6%. Therefore, an increase in the indicator to 0.7% cannot be considered a positive trend, since inflation is too far from its target level.

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In addition, there is still a negative gap between actual and potential production, while the Swiss franc remains "significantly overvalued." In other words, Jordan hinted rather transparently that in the foreseeable future the Swiss regulator is not going to follow the path of the ECB, nor, especially, the path of the Fed. Moreover, during his speech, the head of the SNB allowed further softening of the parameters of monetary policy. Firstly, we are talking about intervention in the foreign exchange market (to be applied with almost a 100% probability), , and secondly, about reducing the interest rate further into the negative area: Jordan did not rule out this option today. Indeed, according to the SNB representative, besides the problems voiced above, there are a few more. In particular, it is the low profitability of companies and the associated "caution in hiring new employees." Thus, the regulator conducts a causal relationship between the expensive franc, the profitability of enterprises, unemployment and consumer activity, which ultimately affects the dynamics of inflation. The similar rhetoric of the head of the SNB puts a lot of pressure on the franc. In addition, the demand for Swiss currency declined due to the risk-taking against the background of positive statistics from China and progress in trade negotiations between Beijing and Washington. Such a fundamental picture pushes the pair to new price highs - especially against the background of the growth of the US currency. In this context, Friday will play a special role for the USD/CHF pair. First, the United States will publish data on the growth of the American economy. In the 4th quarter of 2018, the GDP index reached 2.2% - and according to the forecasts of most experts, in the first quarter of this year the US economy will show a similar result. If the real figures do not coincide with the forecast, then the dollar will fall into the zone of price turbulence - especially if the result is higher than expected. In such a case, the rhetoric of Fed members may again become tougher. In addition, the head of the SNB, Thomas Jordan, will again speak on Friday - he will give a speech at the general meeting of shareholders of the central bank. If he confirms the intention to reduce the interest rate, the franc will receive another informational reason for further devaluation.

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From a technical point of view, the situation is as follows. The pair on all "higher" timeframes (from H4 and above) is on the top line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which indicates the priority of an upward direction. On these timeframes, the Ichimoku indicator has formed a bullish "Parade of lines" signal. The strongest resistance level is at 1.0250 - this is the top line of the Bollinger Bands on the monthly chart. If the pair consolidates above it, then the probability of growth to multi-year high of 1.0350 will increase in many ways.

Forex analysis 23 Apr 2019, 21:50 UTC+00
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4 EUR/USD: The greenback made a comeback
The EUR/USD pair started a new trading week with moderate growth, but then it pulled back to the area of monthly lows...
The EUR/USD pair started a new trading week with moderate growth, but then it pulled back to the area of monthly lows after an unsuccessful attempt to stay above 1.1250. According to experts, the recent growth of EUR/USD was mainly due to a relaxed holiday atmosphere, but now the market is gradually returning to its normal operations, and its participants recall that the macroeconomic reality of the eurozone has not changed at all. Today, the EUR/USD pair has resumed its downward...

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The EUR/USD pair started a new trading week with moderate growth, but then it pulled back to the area of monthly lows after an unsuccessful attempt to stay above 1.1250.

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According to experts, the recent growth of EUR/USD was mainly due to a relaxed holiday atmosphere, but now the market is gradually returning to its normal operations, and its participants recall that the macroeconomic reality of the eurozone has not changed at all.

Today, the EUR/USD pair has resumed its downward movement amid a recovery in the US dollar and the release of rather negative comments from ECB board member Benoit Coeur. In particular, the official expressed concern about the low level of inflation in the eurozone, which is observed against the background of fairly good growth rates of average wages. Separately, B. Coeur dwelled on the situation in the German economy, noting a stronger than previously expected slowdown in economic activity in this country. "Forecasts of the ECB provide for the acceleration of the growth rate of the economy of the currency bloc in the second half of the year, but this scenario is realized only in case of successful resolution of trade conflicts," he said.

Recall that in March, the regulator downwardly revised it estimates of economic growth in the region for 2019 - from 1.7% to 1.1%.

"Now the overall picture is more positive for the dollar than for the euro, given the divergence of macroeconomic indicators in the US and the eurozone," says Ulmer Leuchmann, an analyst at Commerzbank.

Today, the USD index reached its highest level since March 11, amid rising US Treasury yields on the eve of weekly government auctions and corporate reporting in the United States.

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It should be noted that in reality, a currency revaluation occurs in anticipation of an increase in the interest rate by the central bank. However, if the Fed does not do this (even if the state of the US economy improves), then why should the dollar necessarily grow in the future?

The main reasons for the stability of the greenback seem to lie in the problems of its main competitors. For the euro, it's the eurozone's weak beginning, for the pound sterling - the situation around Brexit, for the Japanese yen - the super-soft policy of the Bank of Japan because of the "unwillingness" of inflation to reach the target level. It is assumed that as a result of solving these problems, the position of the dollar may seriously deteriorate. In this regard, the potential of a downard hike of the EUR/USD seems limited.

News 23 Apr 2019, 22:55 UTC+00
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5 EUR./USD analysis for April 23, 2019
Broken larger upward channel in the background plus the bearish flag pattern most recently. Watch for selling...
EUR/USD has been trading downwards as we expected. The price tested the level of 1.1210. Our short position on EUR/USD from yesterday is progressing good and we expect more downside. According to the H4 time-frame, we found the successful breakout of the bearish flag pattern, which is sign of the professional re-selling. Key support is seen at the price of 1.1183 and you should watch to at least scale half of the position there. In case the EUR/USD breaks the level of 1.1183, watch for...

EUR/USD has been trading downwards as we expected. The price tested the level of 1.1210. Our short position on EUR/USD from yesterday is progressing good and we expect more downside.

analytics5cbf12267526c.jpg

According to the H4 time-frame, we found the successful breakout of the bearish flag pattern, which is sign of the professional re-selling. Key support is seen at the price of 1.1183 and you should watch to at least scale half of the position there. In case the EUR/USD breaks the level of 1.1183, watch for potential test of 1.1065 (Fibonacci expansion 100%).

Our recommendation: We are bearish from 1.1230 with targets at 1.1183 and 1.1065. Protective stop is palced at 1.1280.

Forex analysis 23 Apr 2019, 12:25 UTC+00
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6 GBP/USD. April 23rd. Results of the day. Brussels: there will be no revision of the Brexit agreement
On Tuesday, April 23, the British pound sterling fell by 60 points against the background of the overall...
4-hour timeframe The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 58p - 38p - 74p - 29p - 23p. Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 44p (50p). On Tuesday, April 23, the British pound sterling fell by 60 points against the background of the overall strengthening of the US currency. Also, there was bad news for the pound sterling today. Bad, but expected. The European Commission today made a statement saying that the current version of the Brexit agreement is the best possible one....

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 58p - 38p - 74p - 29p - 23p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 44p (50p).

On Tuesday, April 23, the British pound sterling fell by 60 points against the background of the overall strengthening of the US currency. Also, there was bad news for the pound sterling today. Bad, but expected. The European Commission today made a statement saying that the current version of the Brexit agreement is the best possible one. Therefore, there will be no revisions. Thus, the United Kingdom and Theresa May remain, in principle, in the same position as a few months ago. The government only needs to accept the option of an agreement by Theresa May, follow the path of a "hard" Brexit, or abandon it altogether with the use of a repeated referendum or without it. Now the UK has half a year to still take a majority of one of these options. For the pound sterling, this news, as well as the possible resignation of Theresa May, is a negative background. In principle, there can be no other background, given the entire political confusion in 2019. Thus, we still believe that the British pound has only one road – down. By the way, unlike the euro currency, the pound sterling has overcome an important support level of 1.3000 today, significantly increasing its chances for a further downward trend. Thus, the technique fully supports the continuation of the downward movement. No news from the UK or the USA is expected tomorrow, however, volatility may remain at today's level, amid the overcoming of the psychological level of 1.3000.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair resumed its downward movement. Thus, short positions with targets at levels 1.2939 and 1.2889 are relevant at the moment. A reversal of the MACD indicator to the top will indicate a new round of correction.

It is recommended to consider long positions not earlier than overcoming the Kijun-sen line with the goal of the Senkou Span B line. However, the bulls will obviously need serious fundamental support, which is not yet available.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

Forex analysis 23 Apr 2019, 22:31 UTC+00
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7 Is best over for eurozone?
Pundits of economics are nostalgic about the booming years in the eurozone the recent past. However, the robust...
Pundits of economics are nostalgic about the booming years in the eurozone in the recent past. However, the robust economic growth was followed by a protracted slowdown. Some pessimistic analysts even discovered signs of a looming crisis. One thing is obvious: the most advanced economies in the eurozone will not be able to perform at full steam as they did in 2017. The question is still open when the eurozone will revive its steady GDP rates. “I am not surprised...

Pundits of economics are nostalgic about the booming years in the eurozone in the recent past. However, the robust economic growth was followed by a protracted slowdown. Some pessimistic analysts even discovered signs of a looming crisis.

One thing is obvious: the most advanced economies in the eurozone will not be able to perform at full steam as they did in 2017. The question is still open when the eurozone will revive its steady GDP rates. “I am not surprised that growth is coming down because in 2017 the growth rate in the euro area was almost twice the potential growth rate, that could not continue very long,” Chief Executive Officer of the European Financial Stability Facility Klaus Regling told in an interview to CNBC. “The output gap — the amount by which the actual output of an economy falls short of its potential output — is now closed,” he added. He expected such developments. “The IMF revised down the growth figure for the euro area to 1.3%. There was some temporary effect, particularly in Germany in the second half of the last year which has a negative overhang in 2019,” the head of the bailout fund noted.

"We will not see in the next two, three years the growth rates of 2017. It's quite OK to say that the best is over, but it doesn't mean that there is a crisis," the expert commented on lackluster fundamentals in the eurozone.   

Forex Humor 23 Apr 2019, 13:43 UTC+00
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8 April 23 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
Conservative traders should be waiting for a bullish pullback towards the newly-established supply zone around 1.1235...
On January 10th, the market initiated the depicted bearish channel around 1.1570. Since then, the EURUSD pair has been moving within the depicted channel with slight bearish tendency. On March 7th, recent bearish movement was demonstrated towards 1.1175 (channel's lower limit) where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated. On March 18, a significant bullish attempt was executed above 1.1380 (the upper limit of the Highlighted-channel) demonstrating a false/temporary bullish...

analytics5cbf2f85506ff.jpg

On January 10th, the market initiated the depicted bearish channel around 1.1570.

Since then, the EURUSD pair has been moving within the depicted channel with slight bearish tendency.

On March 7th, recent bearish movement was demonstrated towards 1.1175 (channel's lower limit) where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated.

On March 18, a significant bullish attempt was executed above 1.1380 (the upper limit of the Highlighted-channel) demonstrating a false/temporary bullish breakout.

On March 22, significant bearish pressure was demonstrated towards 1.1280 then 1.1220.

Few weeks ago, a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated around 1.1200. This enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1300-1.1315 (supply zone) where recent bearish rejection was being demonstrated.

Short-term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.1280 (61.8% Fibonacci) followed by further bearish decline towards 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci).

For Intraday traders, the price zone around 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci) stood as a temporary demand area which paused the ongoing bearish momentum for a while before bearish breakdown could be executed today.

Conservative traders should be waiting for a bullish pullback towards the newly-established supply zone around 1.1235 for a valid SELL entry.

Moreover, bearish persistence below 1.1235 enhances further bearish decline towards 1.1170 then 1.1115.

Trade recommendations :

A valid SELL entry can be taken around 1.1235 when a bullish pullback occurs.

TP levels to be located around 1.1170 and 1.1115. SL should be placed above 1.1260.

Forex analysis 23 Apr 2019, 14:33 UTC+00
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9 The US following China may surprise markets with unexpectedly high GDP growth in the first quarter
Another temporary government shutdown, trade conflicts and a slowdown in global growth — against this background, the...
The latest temporary government shutdown, trade conflicts and a slowdown in global growth — against this background, the prospects for the first quarter for the US economy did not look promising. However, GDP data for the first three months of 2019 may surprise. After the Chinese economy unexpectedly grew during this period, it is expected that the United States will see a growth of 2.1 percent, although previously the range of analysts' estimates began from 1 percent. In the forecasts...

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The latest temporary government shutdown, trade conflicts and a slowdown in global growth — against this background, the prospects for the first quarter for the US economy did not look promising. However, GDP data for the first three months of 2019 may surprise. After the Chinese economy unexpectedly grew during this period, it is expected that the United States will see a growth of 2.1 percent, although previously the range of analysts' estimates began from 1 percent. In the forecasts of the Atlanta Fed, the range is even more optimistic, between 2.2 and 3.4 percent. If recently most experts spoke about the weakness of the US economy, now they are expecting strong growth in the first quarter. In addition, companies have increased investment, in March, retail sales in the country grew at the fastest rate in 1.5 years - all opposed to the version of the beginning of a recession.

The unexpected reduction in the US trade deficit in February is also evidence of higher growth rates, and only weak production volumes — recall the recent first quarterly decline in industrial output after the election of Donald Trump — can explain such a wide range of estimates.

News 23 Apr 2019, 22:43 UTC+00
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10 Is best over for eurozone?
Pundits of economics are nostalgic about the booming years in the eurozone the recent past. However, the robust...
Pundits of economics are nostalgic about the booming years in the eurozone in the recent past. However, the robust economic growth was followed by a protracted slowdown. Some pessimistic analysts even discovered signs of a looming crisis. One thing is obvious: the most advanced economies in the eurozone will not be able to perform at full steam as they did in 2017. The question is still open when the eurozone will revive its steady GDP rates. “I am not surprised...

Pundits of economics are nostalgic about the booming years in the eurozone in the recent past. However, the robust economic growth was followed by a protracted slowdown. Some pessimistic analysts even discovered signs of a looming crisis.

One thing is obvious: the most advanced economies in the eurozone will not be able to perform at full steam as they did in 2017. The question is still open when the eurozone will revive its steady GDP rates. “I am not surprised that growth is coming down because in 2017 the growth rate in the euro area was almost twice the potential growth rate, that could not continue very long,” Chief Executive Officer of the European Financial Stability Facility Klaus Regling told in an interview to CNBC. “The output gap — the amount by which the actual output of an economy falls short of its potential output — is now closed,” he added. He expected such developments. “The IMF revised down the growth figure for the euro area to 1.3%. There was some temporary effect, particularly in Germany in the second half of the last year which has a negative overhang in 2019,” the head of the bailout fund noted.

"We will not see in the next two, three years the growth rates of 2017. It's quite OK to say that the best is over, but it doesn't mean that there is a crisis," the expert commented on lackluster fundamentals in the eurozone.


Forex Humor 23 Apr 2019, 13:45 UTC+00
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