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1 EUR/USD. 20 November. Results of the day. New problem for the euro - possible EU sanctions for Italy
On the second trading day of the week, the EUR/USD currency pair finally completed the upward movement or at least...
4-hour timeframe The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 78 p-85 p-91 p-98 p-71 p. The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 85 p (94 p). On the second trading day of the week, the EUR/USD currency pair finally completed the upward movement or at least started to adjust. "Finally", because there were no significant fundamental reasons for strengthening the European currency. Moreover, tomorrow the verdict of the European Commission regarding Italy's failure to comply with EU...

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 78 p-85 p-91 p-98 p-71 p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 85 p (94 p).

On the second trading day of the week, the EUR/USD currency pair finally completed the upward movement or at least started to adjust. "Finally", because there were no significant fundamental reasons for strengthening the European currency. Moreover, tomorrow the verdict of the European Commission regarding Italy's failure to comply with EU rules on the budget will be known. And, most likely, Italy is waiting for any sanctions and measures. This is unlikely to support the European currency, and most likely, traders began to get rid of the euro in advance. No important macroeconomic report has been published in Europe and the United States to date. Thus, two main topics remain for the euro: Brexit and the Italian budget. Both not in favor of the euro. Of course, we can assume that the British Parliament will still adopt Theresa May's plan, and most likely it will. But while there is no reliable and official information on this issue, there is a possibility of a complete failure of the entire procedure, the resignation of Theresa May, a new referendum and new parliamentary elections. The goal for the pair at the moment is the Kijun-sen line, a rebound from it can provoke the resumption of an uptrend, but most likely, will provoke only a small rollback. But overcoming the critical line with almost 100% probability will return the pair to the downtrend.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair began a downward correction. The price rebound from the critical line or the MACD indicator reversal upward will be a signal for the resumption of long positions with the target of 1.1486, but it should be remembered that the fundamental background remains not in favor of the euro.

Short positions will become relevant after traders overcome the critical line. In this case the pair will return to the downtrend with the first target of 1.1281.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen-red line.

Kijun-sen – blue line.

Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.

Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.

Chikou span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

Forex analysis 20 Nov 2018, 21:47 UTC+00
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2 Technical analysis for Gold for November 21, 2018
Gold price made a higher high yesterday at $1,228.40 exactly at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and got rejected....
Gold price made a higher high yesterday at $1,228.40 exactly at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and got rejected. Price has pulled back towards $1,220 and the RSI is showing bearish divergence signs. Red rectangle - major resistance area Blue lines - bearish divergence Green line - trend line support Gold price is trading at important resistance area according to our Fibonacci levels. The RSI bearish divergence gives us a warning strengthening our expectations for a bearish reversal...

Gold price made a higher high yesterday at $1,228.40 exactly at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and got rejected. Price has pulled back towards $1,220 and the RSI is showing bearish divergence signs.

analytics5bf5096f43fe2.png

Red rectangle - major resistance area

Blue lines - bearish divergence

Green line - trend line support

Gold price is trading at important resistance area according to our Fibonacci levels. The RSI bearish divergence gives us a warning strengthening our expectations for a bearish reversal in Gold prices. Support is at $1,219. Major support is at the green trend line and rising at $1,204. Breaking below the green trend line will confirm our bearish view. Stop for bears is at the red resistance area. They do not want to see that level broken. In the short-term we could see another minor new higher high towards $1,230-33. If this higher high gives us a lower RSI high, bulls need to be very careful as it will increase the chances of a bearish reversal.

Forex analysis 21 Nov 2018, 06:33 UTC+00
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3 EUR / USD: plan for the European session on November 21. The pressure on the euro may remain
EUR / USD: plan for the European session on November 21. The pressure on the euro may remain
To open long positions on EURUSD you need: Today, the decision of the European Commission for Italy will be published, which is unlikely to surprise traders with something. Most likely, the EU will apply disciplinary measures against the Italian authorities. It is best to consider long positions after the formation of a false breakdown in the region of the intermediate support level of 1.1365, since its breakdown will lead to a further decline in the euro. It is possible to buy EUR / USD...

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Today, the decision of the European Commission for Italy will be published, which is unlikely to surprise traders with something. Most likely, the EU will apply disciplinary measures against the Italian authorities. It is best to consider long positions after the formation of a false breakdown in the region of the intermediate support level of 1.1365, since its breakdown will lead to a further decline in the euro. It is possible to buy EUR / USD immediately to rebound from a larger area of 1.1329, where most likely, the lower limit of the new upward price channel will be formed. The main task of buyers today will be a breakthrough and consolidation above resistance 1.1409, There will be a maximum of 1.1468, where I will go.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Open short positions in the euro is best with an upward correction on the rebound from the resistance of 1.1409, where the average moving is now concentrated. The main task of the bears will be a breakthrough and consolidation below 1.1365 support, which will lead to the formation of a new downward wave with the renewal of minima in the area of 1.1329 and 1.1286, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of the EUR / USD growth above resistance 1.1409, it is the best to consider new short positions to rebound from a weekly high of 1.1468.

More details about this is up in my video review.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade has moved below the 30- and 50-day average, which indicates the formation of a downward correction in the euro.

Bollinger bands

The upper limit of the Bollinger Bands is located in the 1.1422 area. It may limit the upward potential and with its test, I recommend selling the euro for a rebound. In the case of a decline in the euro, the lower limit of the indicator in the 1.1342 area will be a good level for taking profits on short positions.

analytics5bf4f6fc8a721.png

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
Forex analysis 21 Nov 2018, 05:35 UTC+00
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4 EUR / USD pair: plan for the US session on November 20. Euro buyers retreat before the decision of the European Commission tomorrow
It was not possible to break above resistance 1.1456, which led to the expected decline of the euro in the area of...
To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need: It was not possible to break above resistance 1.1456, which led to the expected decline of the euro in the area of support 1.1426. I indicated this in detail in my morning review . However, as we can see, the demand at 1.1426 is also absent. It is best to open new long positions in EUR / USD after reducing and updating the support level of 1.1393 or to rebound from a minimum of 1.1361. The main task of the euro buyers in the afternoon will...

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

It was not possible to break above resistance 1.1456, which led to the expected decline of the euro in the area of support 1.1426. I indicated this in detail in my morning review . However, as we can see, the demand at 1.1426 is also absent. It is best to open new long positions in EUR / USD after reducing and updating the support level of 1.1393 or to rebound from a minimum of 1.1361. The main task of the euro buyers in the afternoon will be a return to the resistance of 1.1426, which will maintain the upward potential.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The bears did not let the pair go above the resistance of 1.1456 and the formation of a false breakdown there, to which I paid attention in my morning forecast, led to a decline in the euro. The breakthrough of support for 1.1426 will allow sellers to count on a further downward correction in the area of minimums of 1.1393 and 1.1361, where I recommend taking profits. In case of EUR / USD growth in the second half of the day, it is possible to return to short positions on a rebound from the resistance of 1.1456.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade gradually moves under the 30- and 50-day moving average, which can lead to a change in the market trend to a downward one.

Bollinger bands

Trade gradually moves under the 30- and 50-day moving average, which can lead to a change in the market trend to a downward one.

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MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

Forex analysis 20 Nov 2018, 12:23 UTC+00
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5 Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for November 20
For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, we expect the upward movement to continue after the breakdown of 1.1470. For the...
Dear colleagues. For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, we expect the upward movement to continue after the breakdown of 1.1470. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the potential for the top of November 15 is still relevant as the initial structure. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the maximum value for the downward structure of November 13 is at the level of 0.9885. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we expect a further downward movement after the breakdown of 112.35. For the...

Dear colleagues.

For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, we expect the upward movement to continue after the breakdown of 1.1470. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the potential for the top of November 15 is still relevant as the initial structure. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the maximum value for the downward structure of November 13 is at the level of 0.9885. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we expect a further downward movement after the breakdown of 112.35. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the price is in equilibrium. For the Pound / Yen currency pair, we expect the move to the level of 143.41, and we consider the move to the top as a correction.

Forecast for November 20:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1544, 1.1494, 1.1469, 1.1430, 1.1401 and 1.1363. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of November 12. The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.1469 - 1.1494 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 1.1544, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1430 - 1.1401 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.1363 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of November 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1470 Take profit: 1.1492

Buy 1.1496 Take profit: 1.1540

Sell: 1.1430 Take profit: 1.1404

Sell: 1.1396 Take profit: 1.1370

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For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2966, 1.2928, 1.2878, 1.2843, 1.2729, 1.2691 and 1.2603. Here, the price forms a small potential for the top of November 15 in the correction of the downward structure. We expect the downward movement to continue after the price passes the range of 1.2729 - 1.2691. In this case, the potential target is 1.2603, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.2843 - 1.2878 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2928. The range of 1.2928 - 1.2966 is the key support for the downward movement. Before it, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formed.

The main trend is the downward structure of November 7, the formation of potential for the top of November 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2845 Take profit: 1.2876

Buy: 1.2880 Take profit: 1.2926

Sell: 1.2690 Take profit: 1.2610

Sell: Take profit:

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For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0013, 0.9985, 0.9959, 0.9943, 0.9923, 0.9909 and 0.9885. Here, we continue to follow the development of the downward structure of November 13. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9923 - 0.9909 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 0.9885, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9943 - 0.9959 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9985 and the breakdown of which, in turn, will begin to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the downward cycle of November 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9944 Take profit: 0.9957

Buy: 0.9962 Take profit: 0.9982

Sell: 0.9923 Take profit: 0.9910

Sell: 0.9907 Take profit: 0.9887

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For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale are: 113.33, 113.12, 112, 82, 112.64, 112.37, 112.10, 111.91 and 111.50. Here, we continue to monitor the downward structure of November 12. The downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 112.35. In this case, the goal is 112.10 and in the range of 112.10 - 111.91 is the short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 111.50, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 112.64 - 112.82 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 113.12 and this level is the key support. Its breakdown will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the medium-term descending structure of November 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 112.64 Take profit: 112.80

Buy: 112.85 Take profit: 113.10

Sell: 112.33 Take profit: 112.10

Sell: 112.08 Take profit: 111.95

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3363, 1.3314, 1.3279, 1.3218, 1.3194, 1.3151, 1.3115 and 1.3074. Here, the price forms the potential for a downward trend in the correction zone from the upward pattern on November 7. We expect a short-term upward movement in the range of 1.3194 - 1.3218 and the breakdown of the last value will resume the upward trend. In this case, the target is 1.3279 and in the range of 1.3279 - 1.3314, we expect a short-term upward movement. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 1.3363.

The continuation of the development of the downward structure of November 14 is expected after the breakdown of 1.3151. In this case, the target is 1.3115 and consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.3074, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The main trend is a local ascending structure of November 7, the formation of potential for the bottom of November 14.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3194 Take profit: 1.3216

Buy: 1.3220 Take profit: 1.3275

Sell: 1.31548 Take profit: 1.3120

Sell: 1.3113 Take profit: 1.3080

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For the Australian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.7426, 0.7391, 0.7344, 0.7292, 0.7265 and 0.7238. Here, we are following the ascending structure of November 13. The upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.7344. In this case, the goal is 0.7391 and consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the top is considered to be the level of 0.7426, after reaching which we expect a departure to a correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7292 - 0.7265 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.7238 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of November 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7346 Take profit: 0.7390

Buy: 0.7393 Take profit: 0.7424

Sell: 0.7290 Take profit: 0.7267

Sell: 0.7263 Take profit: 0.7240

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For the Euro / Yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 129.63, 129.17, 129.00, 128.23, 127.98, 127.22, 126.95 and 126.41. Here, the situation is in equilibrium. The passage of the range of 129.00 - 129.17 will lead to the cancellation of the downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 129.63.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 128.23 - 127.98. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced movement to the level of 127.22 and in the range of 127.22 - 126.95 is the short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 126.41.

The main trend is the equilibrium state.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 129.20 Take profit: 129.60

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 128.23 Take profit: 128.00

Sell: 127.93 Take profit: 127.30

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 147.33, 146.43, 145.79, 144.60, 143.41, 142.51 and 141.28. Here, we are following the November 8 downward cycle. The downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 144.60. In this case, the target is 143.41 and in the range of 143.41 - 142.51 is the short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 141.28, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 145.79 - 146.43 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 147.33 and this level is the key support for the downward movement.

The main trend is the downward structure of November 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 145.80 Take profit: 146.40

Buy: 146.50 Take profit: 147.30

Sell: 144.55 Take profit: 143.45

Sell: 143.36 Take profit: 142.60

Forex analysis 20 Nov 2018, 11:18 UTC+00
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6 GBP / USD pair: plan for the American session on November 20. The pound remains in the side channel
The bears did not allow the pound buyers to break through the resistance level of 1.2877, which I talked about in...
To open long positions on GBP / USD you need: The bears did not allow the pound buyers to break through the resistance level of 1.2877, which I talked about in more detail in my morning review. At the moment, the challenge is still the breakthrough of 1.2877, which will open a direct road to the area of maximum 1.2962, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a decrease in the pound in the second half of the day, support is expected at the level of 1.2799. However, it is best to...

To open long positions on GBP / USD you need:

The bears did not allow the pound buyers to break through the resistance level of 1.2877, which I talked about in more detail in my morning review. At the moment, the challenge is still the breakthrough of 1.2877, which will open a direct road to the area of maximum 1.2962, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a decrease in the pound in the second half of the day, support is expected at the level of 1.2799. However, it is best to open long positions immediately on the rebound from the low of 1.2725.

To open short positions on GBP / USD you need:

Failure to consolidate above the resistance of 1.2877 led to the sale of the British pound, which I spoke about in my morning forecast. A decline and breakdown of support at 1.2799, where the GBP/USD pair is currently aiming, will lead to a larger sale of testing 1.2725 and 1.2662 minimum, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of positive news on Brexit, a break of 1.2877 will lead to an increase in pounds. In such a scenario, it is best to open short positions to rebound from the highs of 1.2962 and 1.3039.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the 30- and 50-day average, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The Bollinger Bands indicator indicates a decrease in volatility and does not give signals on market entry.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

Forex analysis 20 Nov 2018, 12:23 UTC+00
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7 Forecast for EUR / USD for November 21, 2018
On November 21, the euro may overcome support for 1.1348 and head for 1.1190.
EUR / USD On Tuesday, the Euro fell steadily from the technical resistances - the graphic trend line of the price channel and the indicator balance line on the daily graph. The data on construction in the USA for October came out at the level of expectations: the number of new housing bookmarks was 1.23 million and the number of permits issued for the construction of a new house was 1.26 million. More so, September data was revised upwards. On the daily and four-hour charts , technical...

EUR / USD

On Tuesday, the Euro fell steadily from the technical resistances - the graphic trend line of the price channel and the indicator balance line on the daily graph. The data on construction in the USA for October came out at the level of expectations: the number of new housing bookmarks was 1.23 million and the number of permits issued for the construction of a new house was 1.26 million. More so, September data was revised upwards.

On the daily and four-hour charts , technical conditions are not yet fully in favor of the dollar; on the day it is the finding of the signal line of the Marlin oscillator above zero, on the four-hour scale, it is the finding of the price above the indicator lines. But probably, the price departure is below 1.1348 (Krusenstern line and 50% correction) is a matter of the near future. The purpose of the reduction is the Fibonacci reaction level 110.0% (1.1190). Next, we wait for the price to reach the subsequent price channel line in the 1.1110 area.

analytics5bf4e1513584d.png

analytics5bf4e15fb55bf.png

Forex analysis 21 Nov 2018, 05:13 UTC+00
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8 Technical analysis for EUR/USD for November 21, 2018
As expected the EUR/USD pair has reversed from 1.1450-1.15 back below 1.14. This is a bearish sign. However...
As expected the EUR/USD pair has reversed from 1.1450-1.15 back below 1.14. This is a bearish sign. However short-term trend remains bullish and will only change on a daily close below 1.1350. Blue line - important support trend line Black dots - medium strength resistance Dark blue dots -maximum strength support EUR/USD tried to break out of the bearish channel yesterday but got rejected and price came back down. Resistance is at 1.1430-1.1450 area and support at 1.1350-1.1330....

As expected the EUR/USD pair has reversed from 1.1450-1.15 back below 1.14. This is a bearish sign. However short-term trend remains bullish and will only change on a daily close below 1.1350.

analytics5bf50ad25f36f.png

Blue line - important support trend line

Black dots - medium strength resistance

Dark blue dots -maximum strength support

EUR/USD tried to break out of the bearish channel yesterday but got rejected and price came back down. Resistance is at 1.1430-1.1450 area and support at 1.1350-1.1330. Breaking below support will increase the chances of success of our bearish longer-term view. As long as price holds above the trend line, bulls remain in control. Next target is at 1.15. If however price breaks below 1.1350-1.1330 support area we should confirm a top is in and we are starting the next leg down.

Forex analysis 21 Nov 2018, 06:38 UTC+00
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9 GBP/USD analysis for November 21, 2018
Broken support trendline in the background. Watch for selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price...
Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.2776. According to the H1 time – frame, I found a potential end of the upward correction in the background (expanded flat), which is a sign that buying looks risky. Most recently, I have found the breakout of the intraday bearish flag, which is a sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.2722.

analytics5bf52cb0b3c8e.png

Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.2776. According to the H1 time – frame, I found a potential end of the upward correction in the background (expanded flat), which is a sign that buying looks risky. Most recently, I have found the breakout of the intraday bearish flag, which is a sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.2722.

Forex analysis 21 Nov 2018, 09:01 UTC+00
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10 Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 20, 2018
Bullish fixation above 1.1420 enhances further bullish movement towards 1.1520 and probably 1.1600 where the upper...
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress. On the Daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency. Recent bearish movement is maintained within the depicted daily movement channel. On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came...

analytics5bf3fc400e44b.png

On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On the Daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency. Recent bearish movement is maintained within the depicted daily movement channel.

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

Quick bullish advancement was demonstrated towards 1.1420. To be noted that prominent supply zone as well as the previous wave high are located around 1.1420-1.1520.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 enhances further bullish movement towards 1.1520 and probably 1.1600 where the upper limit of the daily channel comes to meet the EUR/USD pair.

Thus, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within a narrow price range (1.1275-1.1400) until breakout occurs in either directions.

Forex analysis 20 Nov 2018, 11:21 UTC+00
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