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1 Analysis and trading signals for beginners. How to trade the EUR/USD pair on August 10? Analysis of Friday. Preparation for trading on Monday
Nonfarm Payrolls report provided strong support for the US currency. Now we are waiting for the US dollar to continue...
Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair The EUR/USD pair still resumed to go down last Friday, August 7. In our morning article, we mentioned that you are not yet advised to consider buying, since three attempts to overcome the 1.1903 level at once were unsuccessful. Sellers also showed no desire to buy the dollar until Thursday and Friday of last week. Nevertheless, the last two trading days of last week still allowed the US dollar to rise by 120 points. Thus, after overcoming the...

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair still resumed to go down last Friday, August 7. In our morning article, we mentioned that you are not yet advised to consider buying, since three attempts to overcome the 1.1903 level at once were unsuccessful. Sellers also showed no desire to buy the dollar until Thursday and Friday of last week. Nevertheless, the last two trading days of last week still allowed the US dollar to rise by 120 points. Thus, after overcoming the 1.1824 level, novice traders could remain in the sales of the pair (or open new ones) with the targets of 1.1772 and 1.1726, the first of which was eventually successfully reached. Therefore, it was possible to earn about 40-50 points, which is an excellent result for the not very volatile EUR/USD pair. The MACD indicator did not turn upward during Friday, so there was no reason to close sales during the day. The day turned out to be absolutely "bearish" (bears are the players of the foreign exchange market, which sell this or that instrument, while bulls - buy).

Fundamentally, as we said in our morning review of August 7, the Nonfarm Payrolls report was of great importance. As a result, the forecast value of this report has exceeded by around 150-200,000, so traders more actively bought the US dollar during the day. In addition, the unemployment rate in America fell to 10.2%, which also supported the dollar. We can say that, in principle, all the reports on Friday were in favor of the dollar. And we remind novice players that the stronger data from a particular country, the more likely that the national currency of that country will grow. Investors and traders love the currencies of strong economies.

No important news or macroeconomic reports are expected in America or the European Union on August 10, Monday. This means that trading on Monday can be rather sluggish and slightly volatile (this means that during the day the pair can pass a small number of points from the low to the high of the day). The attitude of the sellers is also not clear now. Either they are set for strong sales of the pair, since before that the price had been growing for about three months, therefore, a downward correction by at least 30-50% of the upward movement is necessary. Either the big epidemiological, political and economic problems in the United States will still outweigh and bulls will return to the market. Let's remember that despite the good US data on Friday, the American economy contracted by 33% in the second quarter, while the European one lost only 12.1%.

The following scenarios are possible on August 10:

1) Buying the pair remains irrelevant, since the price was unable to overcome the 1.1903 level. Thus, traders are now simply deprived of buy signals. Based on this, we do not recommend trading the pair up on Monday. An important point: the MACD indicator could move upward at the opening of trading on Monday, but the price may continue to decline. This indicator is now very low and due to its capabilities, it cannot fall constantly. Thus, even an upward reversal of the indicator may not signal the beginning of the pair's growth.

2) Selling the currency pair is still more promising now, at least with the target of 1.1696 (the previous local low). However, there are about 90 points to this goal, so the price will hardly be able to cover such a distance in one day. Especially if it's Monday. In the current situation, it would be best to wait for a slight upward price pullback, after which, upon a downward reversal of the MACD indicator, reopen sales with targets at 1.1726 and 1.1696.

What's on the chart:

Support and Resistance Price Levels - Levels that are targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.

Red lines - channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction it is preferable to trade now.

Arrows up/down - indicate when you reach or overcome which obstacles you should trade up or down.

MACD indicator is a histogram and a signal line, the crossing of which is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use in combination with trend lines (channels, trend lines).

Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners in the forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

Forex analysis 9 Aug 2020, 20:40 UTC+00
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2 Underestimated US economy startles EUR
Despite the resurgence in the coronavirus rates, experts have spotted the green shoots of recovery
Sometimes, it happens that the market is moving in the direction opposite to expectations. This is exactly what is going on now. The S&P 500 had been on track to historic highs before the publication of the ADP National Employment Report. The ADP payroll processor released downbeat data on the private sector employment. It seemed to crush resistance of the EUR/USD bears. Nevertheless, the US Labor Department posted better-than-expected data on initial unemployment claims. On Friday,...

Sometimes, it happens that the market is moving in the direction opposite to expectations. This is exactly what is going on now. The S&P 500 had been on track to historic highs before the publication of the ADP National Employment Report. The ADP payroll processor released downbeat data on the private sector employment. It seemed to crush resistance of the EUR/USD bears. Nevertheless, the US Labor Department posted better-than-expected data on initial unemployment claims. On Friday, the US nonfarm payrolls revealed similar data on employment in the public and private sectors like in the ADP report. This assured EUR bulls to take profit. Now they are thinking about a downward correction.

The milestone event for EUR is the EU-backed recovery fund which provides a long-term support to the single European currency. In addition, EUR found support from the move of central banks towards diversification of their gold and forex reserves as well as investors' revision of their portfolios in favor of the euro-denominated assets. Another argument for investors in favor of EUR is different prospects of the EU and US economies. On the one hand, the eurozone plunged into a deeper recession in Q2 than the US. On the other hand, the better coronavirus picture, more efficient social programs on the labor market, and coordinated efforts of the EU leaders suggest a more rapid GDP recovery to the pre-crisis level than in the US.

US and eurozone GDP

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No wonder EUR is shining now with prospects for sustaining strength in the long term. Nevertheless, it would be a good idea to take notice of two important points. First, US stock indexes have been advancing higher than European ones. Why? The US stock market owes its steady rally to unexpectedly strong financial reports from large US companies for Q2. Second, the assumption about a growing EUR share in central banks' gold and forex reserves has not been confirmed yet. Apparently, central banks will rush pumping up their reserves with EUR in case Washington decides to resume its trade war with China.

It makes sense to stay sober amid the EUR stunning rally. Indeed, the second COVID-19 wave in Spain and lower virus rates in the US assure some EUR/USD bulls to take profit. Remarkably, the US economy released unexpectedly upbeat metrics which come as a surprise. This prompts investors to make a conclusion that the downturn in the US economy is not as dismal as believed. For instance, the US outpaces the eurozone and Japan in terms of business activity.

Manufacturing PMI

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Meanwhile, some EUR fans are willing to exit long positions for several reasons such as uncertainty around the new stimulus package in the US, escalating jitters in the US – China relations, and the presidential elections. Hardly anyone doubts that the White House and Congress will eventually come to the common denominator and pass the bill until the first week of August. So, the second stimulus package will be good news for the US dollar. The meeting between Washington and Beijing is scheduled for August 15. The parties are due to discuss to what extent they have fulfilled their commitments under the first phase trade deal made in January. Citing well-informed sources, Bloomberg reported that China intends to revise the trade deal due to the pandemic. However, if something goes wrong for Donald Trump, the trade war is likely to spark off again.

Back to the chart. The overall trend of EUR/USD is quite steady but the time is ripe for a downward correction. It would be a nice idea to enter the market with long deals on retracements to 1.1755, 1.169, and 1.1635.

EUR/USD, daily chart

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Forex analysis 7 Aug 2020, 13:42 UTC+00
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3 Comprehensive analysis of movement options for #USDX vs EUR/USD & GBP/USD & USD/JPY (Daily) on August 10, 2020
Are the peaks conquered? Correction? Options for the development of the movement #USDX vs EUR/USD & GBP/USD &...
Minor operational scale (Daily) Are the peaks conquered? Correction? Options for the development of the movement #USDX vs EUR/USD & GBP/USD & USD/JPY (Daily) on August 10, 2020. ____________________ US dollar index From August 10, 2020, the movement of the dollar index #USDX will continue depending on the direction of the breakout of the range: resistance level of 93.35 - the lower limit of the channel 1/2 Median Line of the Minute operational scale fork; support level of...

Minor operational scale (Daily)

Are the peaks conquered? Correction? Options for the development of the movement #USDX vs EUR/USD & GBP/USD & USD/JPY (Daily) on August 10, 2020.

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US dollar index

From August 10, 2020, the movement of the dollar index #USDX will continue depending on the direction of the breakout of the range:

  • resistance level of 93.35 - the lower limit of the channel 1/2 Median Line of the Minute operational scale fork;
  • support level of 93.05 - upper bound of ISL38.2 balance zone of the Minor operational scale fork.

In case of a breakdown of the resistance level of 93.35, the movement of the dollar index will continue in the 1/2 Median Line Minute channel (93.35 - 93.65 - 94.00) with the possibility of continuing the development of the movement already in the equilibrium zone (94.25 - 94.80 - 95.30) of the Minute pitchfork with the prospect of reaching the initial SSL lines (96.25) of the Minor operational scale forks and the FSL Minute end lines (97.10).

If the support level of 93.05 breaks at ISL38.2 Minor, the #USDX movement will continue its development in the equilibrium zone (93.05 - 91.90 - 90.80) of the Minor operational scale fork.

The markup of the #USDX movement options from August 10, 2020 is shown on an animated chart.

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Euro vs US dollar

The single European currency EUR/USD from August 10, 2020 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the range:

  • resistance level of 1.1835 - the lower border of ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minute operational scale fork;
  • support level of 1.1735 - the upper border of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minute.

In case of a breakdown of the support level of 1.1735, the movement of the single European currency will continue in the channel 1/2 Median Line (1.1735 - 1.1685 - 1.1645) of the Minute operational scale fork, and in the event of a breakdown of the lower boundary (1.1645) of this channel, the downward movement of this instrument can continue to the control line LTL Minute (1.1510) and the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.1345 - 1.1245 - 1.1135) of the Minor operational scale fork.

A breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1835 at ISL38.2 and Minute will return the development of the EUR/USD movement to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.1835 - 1.1940 - 1.2010) of the Minute operational scale fork with the prospect of reaching the control line UTL (1.2120) of the Minor operational scale fork.

The EUR/USD movement options from August 10, 2020 are shown on the animated chart.

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Great Britain pound vs US dollar

The development of the movement of Her Majesty's currency GBP/USD from August 10, 2020 will also be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of the range:

  • resistance level of 1.3150 - the lower border of ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minute operational scale fork;
  • support level of 1.3070 - the final Shiff Line Minute.

The breakdown of the final Shiff Line Minute - support level of 1.3070 - will determine the continuation of the downward movement of the currency of Her Majesty to the goals:

  • initial SSL line (1.2880) of the Minute operational scale fork;
  • channel 1/2 Median Line Minute (1.2845 - 1.2775 - 1.2695);
  • with the prospect of reaching the control lines - UTL Minor (1.2550) and LTL Minute (1.2460).

A breakdown of the 1.3150 resistance level at ISL38.2 Minute will make the development of the GBP/USD movement in the equilibrium zone relevant (1.3150 - 1.3300 - 1.3400) of the Minute operational scale fork.

Options for the movement of GBP/USD from August 10, 2020 are shown on the animated chart.

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US dollar vs Japanese yen

The development of the movement of the currency of the "Land of the Rising Sun" USD/JPY from August 10, 2020 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (104.80 - 105.45 - 105.90) of the Minute operational scale fork - details of movement within this zone are shown on the animated chart of the Minute operational scale fork.

The breakdown of the resistance level of 105.90 at the upper boundary ISL38.2 zone equilibrium of the Minute operational scale fork will be relevant in the development of the upward movement of the currency "Land of the Rising Sun" to the ultimate Shiff Line Minute (106.65), the lower boundary ISL38.2 (107.35) fork operational scale Minor, and the borders of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minute (108.10 - 108.50 - 109.00).

A breakout of the lower border ISL61.8 zone equilibrium of the Minute operational scale fork - support level 104.80 - confirm the further development of the movement of USD/JPY in the channel 1/2 Median Line (105.20 - 103.90 - 102.50) of the Minor operational scale fork.

The markup of USD/JPY movement options from August 10, 2020 is shown on an animated chart.

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The review is compiled without taking into account the news background, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers and is not a guide to action (placing "sell" or "buy"orders).

Formula for calculating the dollar index:

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

Where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of currencies in the basket:

Euro — 57.6 %;

Yen — 13.6 %;

Pound sterling — 11.9 %;

Canadian dollar — 9.1 %;

Swedish Krona — 4.2 V %;

Swiss franc — 3.6 %.

The first coefficient in the formula brings the index value to 100 on the starting date-March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

Forex analysis 7 Aug 2020, 16:20 UTC+00
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4 Dollar rises ahead of Non-farm Payrolls report
Things have not been going well for the dollar
Things have not been going well for the dollar lately. In the second quarter, US GDP fell at a record, with which the Fed showed a pessimistic attitude in the July meeting. In addition, the US government couldn't find a consensus regarding new programs that would help the national economy. Meanwhile, the coronavirus continues to spread in the United States. The number of COVID-19 cases in the country has already reached almost 5 million, and the death rate has exceeded 161 thousand. The...

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Things have not been going well for the dollar lately. In the second quarter, US GDP fell at a record, with which the Fed showed a pessimistic attitude in the July meeting. In addition, the US government couldn't find a consensus regarding new programs that would help the national economy.

Meanwhile, the coronavirus continues to spread in the United States. The number of COVID-19 cases in the country has already reached almost 5 million, and the death rate has exceeded 161 thousand. The uncertainty associated with the presidential elections in November also adds fuel to the fire.

Nevertheless, the US dollar bounced off a new two-year low at a price level of 92.52 ahead of the July US labor market report, recovering some of its losses since the start of the week.

"The dollar moved away from the brink, but for the bulls, this is only of tactical interest unless risk sentiment falls," strategists at Saxo Bank said.

According to experts, the upcoming US employment report poses a serious risk for the dollar, which explains its recent decline against most of its major competitors.

The US economy is projected to create 1.48 million jobs in July, quite a bit from 4.8 million in June.

Authorities in some of the most populous states in the United States have tightened social distancing policies as coronavirus cases hit record levels.

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Forecasts for the July US labor market report were very disappointing. Layoffs are projected to grow about 576.1% against the 305.5% noted a month earlier, mainly due to the weak report published by the ADP, which showed an increase in jobs by only 167 thousand against the expected 1.5 million. Employment components of the ISM and PMI indices also remained below 50 points, separating growth from contraction.

If these assumptions turn out correct, with which the number of jobs created in July does not meet expectations, the US dollar is certain to face a new round of decline.

However, a rise in the dollar could still occur, if the number of new jobs exceeds forecasts, the average salary increases, and Congress nevertheless agrees on the next stimulus package.

Some experts, though, are skeptical that the dollar will rise, especially against the euro, amid rapidly dying hopes for a V-shaped economic recovery.

UBS specialists even revised their forecast for the EUR / USD pair upward, from 1.17 to 1.20.

"In the long term, the rise in US government debt is likely to affect the US dollar, so the risk of a depreciation should not be neglected," UBS said.

"Amid uncertainty over the upcoming presidential elections in the United States, and expectations that the Fed will implement another easing in the fall, the US dollar is likely to weaken by the end of the year," analysts at ANZ also commented.

"We expect the EUR / USD pair to enter a price range of 1.20-1.25. However, if the US Congress fails to agree on further stimulating the national economy, demand for the dollar will decrease even further in the short term. In this case, the weakening of it will be more significant, and the EUR / USD pair may reach a range of 1.25-1.30," they added.

News 7 Aug 2020, 11:06 UTC+00
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5 Analysis of EUR/USD and GBP/USD for August 7. Markets are starting to believe in the US currency, which is linked to strong Non-farm in the US
Important economic reports will be released in America in the coming minutes, which will reflect the state of the...
EUR / USD On August 6, the EUR/USD pair gained about 20 pips, but still presumably completed the construction of a 5 in 5 in C in B. Today, August 7, a new departure of quotes from the reached highs began. The current wave markup looks completely complete. Thus, I expect the completion of the construction of the uptrend section and the transition to a new downward set of waves, which may stretch for several months in the time aspect. Fundamental component: Yesterday was...

EUR / USD

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On August 6, the EUR/USD pair gained about 20 pips, but still presumably completed the construction of a 5 in 5 in C in B. Today, August 7, a new departure of quotes from the reached highs began. The current wave markup looks completely complete. Thus, I expect the completion of the construction of the uptrend section and the transition to a new downward set of waves, which may stretch for several months in the time aspect.

Fundamental component:

Yesterday was fairly neutral in terms of information. There was only one report on claims for unemployment benefits in America, which turned out to be somewhat more optimistic than forecasts. Nevertheless, the demand for the US currency did not change during the past day, that is, it remained rather low. It should be noted once again that the wave counting implies a long rise in the US currency. However, will the markets only have enough wave counting as reasons? The hopes of the US currency are mainly associated with the Nonfarm Payrolls report today, which reflects the number of jobs created outside the agricultural sector. If the value of the report is higher than the forecast (+1.6 million), then the demand for the dollar may grow significantly in instruments with the European and the British currencies. There is nothing more to hope for the dollar. On the other hand, the epidemiological situation in America remains quite difficult, with no significant improvement observed. Moreover, Donald Trump continues to discourage Americans almost every day with his "misleading" statements regarding the coronavirus. It is so discouraging that his posts have already begun to be deleted by social networks Twitter and Facebook. For a second: American social networks are deleting messages from the president of the country, as they are "knowingly false." Nonsense, but this is the American reality now. The situation in the economy is no better than the situation with the epidemic. Economists are predicting a serious recession for America, from which the country will take a very long time, perhaps several years, in contrast to Trump's promises to "lift the economy almost by 2021." We have already seen the GDP report for the second quarter.

General conclusions and recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair has presumably completed the construction of the upward wave C in B. Thus, at this time, I do not recommend new purchases of the instrument, but I recommend closing the old ones. I also recommend starting to look closely at sales with the first targets, which are around 15 and 16 figures, since the instrument can now move on to building a global wave C.

GBP / USD

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On August 6, the GBP/USD pair gained about 20 pips, however, an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 127.2% Fibonacci mark indicates that the markets are not ready for new purchases of the pound, and the current wave counting implies the construction of a new downtrend section, as wave 5 took a fully completed view. Thus, before a successful breakout of the 127.2% Fibonacci mark, I believe that the instrument will try to start building a downward set of waves.

Fundamental component:

The demand for the US currency declined yesterday, paired with the pound, although the results of the meeting of the Bank of England and the subsequent speech of its governor Andrew Bailey cannot be called too optimistic for the British currency. Nevertheless, the current wave counting implies the beginning of a decline in the instrument, respectively, the dollar should start to grow, unless the American reports that will be released in the next few minutes spoil everything. The main thing is that if the Nonfarm report is strong, then you can really expect a strong increase in the dollar. No news is expected from the UK today.

General conclusions and recommendations:

The pound/dollar instrument is expected to have completed an upward wave 5 around 1.3183. Therefore, I recommend at this time to close all purchases at least until a successful attempt to break through the 127.2% Fibonacci level and tune in to a possible long-term decline in quotes within a new downward trend section with the first targets around 27 and 28 figures.

Forex analysis 7 Aug 2020, 12:38 UTC+00
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6 GBP / USD: Bank of England to still introduce negative rates despite Brexit deal
Over the past few weeks, the pound sterling was appreciated significantly. Although this was largely due to the...
Over the past few weeks, the pound sterling was appreciated significantly. This was largely due to the weakening of the greenback's position, but the increased hopes for a positive outcome of the Brexit negotiations also contributed to it. "A balanced and sustainable deal is still possible, even if it is less ambitious," said Michel Barnier, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator. The evidence that on a number of controversial issues the positions of the parties began to converge served as a...

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Over the past few weeks, the pound sterling was appreciated significantly. This was largely due to the weakening of the greenback's position, but the increased hopes for a positive outcome of the Brexit negotiations also contributed to it.

"A balanced and sustainable deal is still possible, even if it is less ambitious," said Michel Barnier, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator.

The evidence that on a number of controversial issues the positions of the parties began to converge served as a positive signal for the pound bulls. However, currency strategists at Bank of America believe that the reaction in the format "when there is a deal - sterling rises, no deal - the pound falls" looks primitive and does not take into account the nuances.

"The lack of a deal will be disastrous for the pound, especially in the current environment, when the British economy is very slowly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the conclusion of the deal does not guarantee growth for the pound sterling, "the bank's experts noted.

They draw attention to the fact that the rapprochement of positions of London and Brussels on the details of the separation became possible due to a noticeable softening of the requirements of the British side.

"Now everything is moving towards the fact that the deal will be very limited. This implies the restoration of a number of duty-free barriers and a reboot of the United Kingdom's relations with individual EU states. Such a development of events means that even with the conclusion of the deal, the British economy will feel a new blow, which increases the likelihood of further easing of the monetary exchange rate of the Bank of England, which may nevertheless decide to introduce negative interest rates, " BofA experts believe.

The bank revised its forecast for the GBP / USD pair at the end of 2020 downward - from 1.34 to 1.17.

On Thursday, the pound against the US dollar renewed five-month highs in the 1.3184 region.

Most of the pound's gain occurred shortly after the announcement of the results of the next meeting of the Bank of England.

The regulator left the interest rate unchanged at 0.1% and kept the size of the asset purchase program at £ 745 billion.

Commenting on the Central Bank's decision on monetary policy, the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, said that negative interest rates remain one of the possible instruments of monetary policy, but at the moment they are not on the agenda.

"The Bank of England will most likely prefer to refrain from applying a policy of negative interest rates until there is clarity on the issue of EU-UK relations from 2021. Now the derivatives market puts in the quotes the probability that interest rates may go into negative territory early next year, " analysts at ING said.

News 6 Aug 2020, 15:04 UTC+00
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7 End of US dollar hegemony
American dollar dominance is over
The US dollar has long been a dominant reserve currency and a symbol of reliability and economic prosperity. However, this is already in the past. The era of the US dollar is over. Due to the coronavirus pandemic, household incomes have plummeted and the US national debt has risen. Moreover, now China claims to be the leading economy in the world. It is not surprising since it was China that first emerged from quarantine and resumed the work of its economy. In this regard, many economists...

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The US dollar has long been a dominant reserve currency and a symbol of reliability and economic prosperity. However, this is already in the past. The era of the US dollar is over. Due to the coronavirus pandemic, household incomes have plummeted and the US national debt has risen. Moreover, now China claims to be the leading economy in the world. It is not surprising since it was China that first emerged from quarantine and resumed the work of its economy. In this regard, many economists predict a collapse of the US dollar. For example, the eminent economist Stephen Roach is confident that the American currency will collapse by 30-35% very soon.

For a very long time, the dollar was the world's leading currency. Its dominant position strengthened after the First World War thanks to US military superiority. However, in the early 2000s, there was a long-term tendency towards a weakening of the American currency, which is still observed today.

Indeed, July 2020 was the worst month for the US dollar in the past 10 years. It collapsed to multi-year lows. In just a month, the greenback lost six percent against the pound, five percent against the euro, and four percent against the Swiss franc and the Australian dollar.

The COVID-19 pandemic has clearly exposed the long-standing problems of the United States which have been accumulating for many years. So, the crisis became a catalyst for their development. The US economy is now facing a growing budget deficit, recession, and the risk of deflation.

Since there were no personal savings in the country for a "rainy day", and the economy had to be rescued, the American resorted to investments from outside, which led to a record national debt. Market participants have actively invested in the US dollar because of its special role in the global economy. However, now investors do not trust the US dollar due to the growing government deficit.

The US government spends trillions of dollars to support businesses and the population, but this is not enough. According to some reports, the US GDP fell by 32.9% compared to the same period last year.

Also the dollar is under pressure due to Donald Trump's policy. The American leader does not support globalization and seeks to distance from the other countries. America may soon lose its status as the world's leading economy and financial center.

This process has already begun as traders are actively investing in gold for fear of a military conflict between the United States and China. The founder and director of APS Asset Management Pte Kok Hoi Wong believes that it is time to withdraw money from American securities. The expert thinks that during the US presidential elections, political tensions may peak.

The US dollar is now losing ground against its main competitor, the Chinese yuan. While the pandemic is raging through the United States and the number of infected people is rapidly rising, China's economy has quickly recovered from the virus. In addition, the Chinese economy, according to the experts, is undergoing a stage of transformation from industrial to post-industrial. This means that China will focus on the domestic market and will be less dependent on exports. This, in turn, will push the yuan to a new level of a reserve currency.

Mr. Roach has also noted that the increase in oil demand will strengthen the Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar. Moreover, the euro, which has survived all the economic shocks over the past 10 years, has good prospects for further growth. This is enough to crash the US dollar.

At the same time, Charles Biderman, founder of the analytical company TrimTabs Investment Research, sees another danger. At the moment, unemployment in the US is rising, while savings are falling. However, new car sales are increasing, as well as the real estate prices. This signals that instead of saving money, Americans spend it instantly. If the world faces the second wave of coronavirus, the country will face a sharp decline in consumption.

Yet, this is not the worst thing. Stephen Roach noted that the US economy is recovering very slowly, and there are more and more unemployed people in the country. This will lead America into a deep hole of debt as the population has nothing to pay off its loans. The authorities will have no choice but to continue stimulating the economy by investing the next trillions of dollars. Therefore, the budget deficit and dollar depreciation are inevitable.

Former US Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson is also confident that the dollar's dominance is coming to an end. The role of the yuan will increase due to the integration of the China's economy into global processes. Indeed, the American currency has faced the most difficult situations in the entire post-war era.

News 7 Aug 2020, 12:46 UTC+00
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8 Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold
Gold price ended the week higher making new weekly all time highs and closed above $2,030. Trend remains bullish. The...
Gold price ended the week higher making new weekly all time highs and closed above $2,030. Trend remains bullish. The precious metal was under pressure on Friday as most probably profit taking by bulls took place. Gold price today made a new higher high but price closed below yesterday's lows. This is a warning sign of a short-term top. I do not expect price to form a major top. My first pull back target is at $1,990 and my second target is at $1,922. As we said in previous analysis, Gold...

Gold price ended the week higher making new weekly all time highs and closed above $2,030. Trend remains bullish. The precious metal was under pressure on Friday as most probably profit taking by bulls took place.

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Gold price today made a new higher high but price closed below yesterday's lows. This is a warning sign of a short-term top. I do not expect price to form a major top. My first pull back target is at $1,990 and my second target is at $1,922. As we said in previous analysis, Gold price justifies a pull back. Any pull back is seen as buying opportunity. We expect Gold price to continue higher over the coming months.
Forex analysis 7 Aug 2020, 20:57 UTC+00
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9 Comprehensive analysis of movement options for Palladium & Platinum (H4) on August 7, 2020
I will continue to prepare the situation for Palladium & Platinum - an overview of the options for the movement...
Minute operational scale (H4) I will continue to prepare the situation for Palladium & Platinum - an overview of the options for the movement of these instruments from August 7, 2020. ____________________ #PAF (Palladium) Current Month From August 7, 2020, the movement of #PAF (Palladium) will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the range: resistance level of 2275.00 - the lower border of the channel 1/2 Median Line of the Minuette operational...

Minute operational scale (H4)

I will continue to prepare the situation for Palladium & Platinum - an overview of the options for the movement of these instruments from August 7, 2020.

____________________

#PAF (Palladium) Current Month

From August 7, 2020, the movement of #PAF (Palladium) will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the range:

  • resistance level of 2275.00 - the lower border of the channel 1/2 Median Line of the Minuette operational scale fork;
  • support level of 2238.00 - the upper border of the ISL38.2 balance zone of the Minuette operational scale forks.

If the resistance level of 2274.00 is broken, the development of the Palladium movement will begin in the 1/2 Median Line channel (2274.00 - 2323.00 - 2370.00) of the Minuette operational scale fork with the prospect of reaching the equilibrium zone boundaries (2424.00 - 2505.00 - 2586.00) of the Minute operational scale fork.

In case of breakdown of ISL38.2 Minuette - support level of 2238.00, the development of the #PAF movement will return to the equilibrium zone (2238.00 - 2181.00 - 2120.00) of the Minuette operational scale fork and the 1/2 Median Line channel (2166.00 - 2120.00 - 2072.00) of the Minute operational scale fork with the prospect of reaching the warning line LWL61.8 Minute (2003.00).

The markup of #PAF (Palladium) motion options from August 7, 2020 is shown in an animated chart.

analytics5f2be221dc69e.jpg

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#PLF (Platinum) Current Month

The development of the #PLF (Platinum) movement from August 7, 2020 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1040.0 - 1020.3 - 1005.0) of the Minuette operational scale fork - details of the movement marking in this equilibrium zone are shown on the animated chart.

The breakdown of the support level of 1005.0 at the lower border of ISL38.2 of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork will make it possible (with the subsequent breakdown of the support level 1000.0) the development of the Platinum movement in the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (1000.0 - 990.0 - 977.0) with the prospect of reaching the initial SSL line Minuette (967.0) and channel boundaries of 1/2 Median Line (958.0 - 937.0 - 915.0) pitchfork Minute.

If the resistance level of 1040.0 breaks at the upper border of ISL61.8 of the balance zone of the Minuette operational scale forks, confirmation of the development of the #PLF movement in the balance zone will be received (1020.3 - 1057.0 - 1093.0) of the Minute operational scale fork.

Details of the #PLF (Platinum) movement options from August 7, 2020 are shown in the animated chart.

analytics5f2be1e58d6fc.jpg

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The review is compiled without taking into account the news background, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers and is not a guide to action (placing "sell" or "buy" orders).

Forex analysis 6 Aug 2020, 11:22 UTC+00
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10 AUDUSD looking for short term push up above trendline!
Price holding above both moving average and ascending trendline support. A further push up above 1st support at...
Trading Recommendation Entry: 0.72028 Reason for Entry: Ascending trendline support, moving average support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement Take Profit: 0.72412 Reason for Take Profit: Graphical swing high Stop Loss: 0.71743 Reason for Stop Loss: 100% Fibonacci extension

analytics5f2cd385efc81.jpg

Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.72028

Reason for Entry: Ascending trendline support, moving average support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit: 0.72412

Reason for Take Profit: Graphical swing high

Stop Loss: 0.71743

Reason for Stop Loss: 100% Fibonacci extension

Forex analysis 7 Aug 2020, 04:08 UTC+00
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