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1 Gold price back tests break out area
Gold price after it broke above the short-term resistance of $1,415-20 has reached $1,430 and is now back testing the...
Gold price after it broke above the short-term resistance of $1,415-20 has reached $1,430 and is now back testing the break out area around $1,420. Failure to stay above the break out level will be a bearish sign and a sign of a false break out. Yellow rectangle - major resistance and double top Black line -resistance trend line Red rectangle - support area Gold price has managed to break above short-term resistance area and above the black downward sloping trend line resistance....

Gold price after it broke above the short-term resistance of $1,415-20 has reached $1,430 and is now back testing the break out area around $1,420. Failure to stay above the break out level will be a bearish sign and a sign of a false break out.

analytics5d307c5ad8ad3.png

Yellow rectangle - major resistance and double top

Black line -resistance trend line

Red rectangle - support area

Gold price has managed to break above short-term resistance area and above the black downward sloping trend line resistance. Price made a new short-term high but still below the 2019 highs of $1,440. Price is now back testing the black trend line resistance that is broken. A bounce of this trend line would be a bullish sign and a confirmation of the breakout. Failure to stay above it and break back below $1,410 would not be good news for bulls. Bears on the other hand want to see price reverse and break below the $1,400 low. Until then there are more chances of an upward continuation.

Forex analysis 18 Jul 2019, 14:06 UTC+00
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2 GBP/USD. July 18th. Results of the day. An unexpected statement by Michel Barnier resurrected the pound
Also, the British currency was supported by reports on retail sales in the UK. There were ghostly hopes for an...
4-hour timeframe The amplitude of the last 5 days(high-low): 74p – 60p – 67p – 125p – 75p. The average amplitude over the last 5 days: 80P(81p). The British pound is finally able to breathe more or less freely after a report on retail sales in the UK in July showed an increase and was higher than the forecast values, which predicted another decline. Also, support for the British currency was provided by the speech of Michel Barnier, chief negotiator for Brexit from the...

4-hour timeframe

analytics5d309ee15bb7d.png

The amplitude of the last 5 days(high-low): 74p – 60p – 67p – 125p – 75p.

The average amplitude over the last 5 days: 80P(81p).

The British pound is finally able to breathe more or less freely after a report on retail sales in the UK in July showed an increase and was higher than the forecast values, which predicted another decline. Also, support for the British currency was provided by the speech of Michel Barnier, chief negotiator for Brexit from the European Union, in which he said that the EU is open to an alternative proposal for the Northern Ireland border. But this point is very indicative, from our point of view. The pound sterling is growing again on rumors. That is, by and large, Barnier only gave hope to the market that London and Brussels will still be able to agree, and then the pound began to be in demand. Last year and at the beginning of this year, the pound has repeatedly shown growth solely on the expectations of traders, on the expectations of the imminent completion of the entire Brexit procedure, on the expectations of the adoption of the "deal" and each time hopes were not justified, the British currency then fell even lower. What did Barnier essentially say? Only that the EU is still willing to consider an alternative plan for the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. This does not mean that the terms of the agreement reached with Theresa May will be revised, that this proposal will be approved by the EU countries, the European Commission and the European Parliament. That is, in fact, nothing has changed in the Brexit procedure at the moment, only a new information branch has appeared, which can now also be monitored, since the Forex market reacts to it. Now, we are waiting for the statements of Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt regarding the possible alternative on the most fundamental issue.

Trading recommendations:

The pound/dollar currency pair continues its upward correction. Thus, traders are advised to wait until it is completed and re-trade down with the targets at 1.2400 and 1.2391, if the pair rebounds from the line Kijun-Sen.

It will be possible to buy the British currency after the reverse consolidation of the pair above the Kijun-Sen line, which will lead to a change of trend to an upward one. Targets – Senkou Span B line and the level of 1.2621, the minimum lots.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-Sen – red line.

Kijun-Sen – blue line.

Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B – light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

A red line and a histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

Forex analysis 18 Jul 2019, 16:03 UTC+00
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3 EUR/USD. July 18th. Results of the day. European Central Bank prepares to lower rates and resume QE
In connection with this news, the European currency is again under pressure from traders. Mario Draghi can finally...
4-hour timeframe The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 41p – 37p – 31p – 62p – 34p. Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 41p (47p). From a technical point of view, the downward movement of the EUR/USD pair is absolutely logical. The price has fulfilled the critical Kijun-Sen line, and as the bulls remain extremely weak, the pendulum has outweighed the bears. It so happened that this event coincided with the hit in the media and online publications information...

4-hour timeframe

analytics5d309d75aa0b6.png

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 41p – 37p – 31p – 62p – 34p.

Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 41p (47p).

From a technical point of view, the downward movement of the EUR/USD pair is absolutely logical. The price has fulfilled the critical Kijun-Sen line, and as the bulls remain extremely weak, the pendulum has outweighed the bears. It so happened that this event coincided with the hit in the media and online publications information that the ECB as well as the Fed, is preparing to reduce the key rate. The only difference is that monetary policy will be eased, most likely in September. But the European Central Bank can reduce the rate by 0.5% at once, to a historic low. Many experts believe that in July (25th), Mario Draghi will give a specific signal to the market that the rate will be lowered. Thus, at the end of his term of office, Draghi is preparing for a very decisive action regarding monetary policy. The main reason for the reduction of the key rate lies, of course, in the lower rates of economic growth and GDP, as well as in weak inflation, which is much lower than the target level of the ECB. Moreover, there is talk among traders that the ECB can go to the resumption of the QE program and will again begin to buy up assets, flooding the economy with freshly printed money. The question is, will it happen during Mario Draghi's reign or already under Christine Lagarde? Anyway, this is another factor that can put pressure on the euro in the long term. As you can see, the Fed is preparing to lower the rate, the ECB is preparing to lower the rate and resume the program of quantitative easing. The Fed will lower the rate from 2.5%, the ECB – from 0.0%. Low inflation in the EU is 1.3%, in the States – 1.6%. Wherever you throw, everywhere America feels much better than Europe, which can be a defining moment in the prospects of the euro/dollar pair.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair completed an upward correction near the Kijun-Sen line. Thus, sales of the euro currency with targets at 1.1175 and 1.1157 are now relevant.

We recommend buying the euro/dollar pair not earlier than fixing the price above the critical line with the first target of 1.1306, but with the minimum lots, as the bulls remain extremely weak.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-Sen – red line.

Kijun-Sen – blue line.

Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B – light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

A red line and a histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

Forex analysis 18 Jul 2019, 16:03 UTC+00
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4 USDCAD challenges long-term lower channel boundary
USDCAD at 1.3030 has challenged the lower boundary of its long-term upward sloping channel from September of 2017...
USDCAD at 1.3030 has challenged the lower boundary of its long-term upward sloping channel from September of 2017 lows. Price has the potential to stage a bullish reversal especially if price breaks above 1.3140. Blue upward sloping lines - long-term bullish channel The decline from 1.3550 could already be over. Price has reached the lower channel boundary and is showing reversal signs as support levels at 1.30 are being respected. Short-term resistance is found at 1.31 and next at...

USDCAD at 1.3030 has challenged the lower boundary of its long-term upward sloping channel from September of 2017 lows. Price has the potential to stage a bullish reversal especially if price breaks above 1.3140.

analytics5d307e5b18bfe.png

Blue upward sloping lines - long-term bullish channel

The decline from 1.3550 could already be over. Price has reached the lower channel boundary and is showing reversal signs as support levels at 1.30 are being respected. Short-term resistance is found at 1.31 and next at 1.3150. Breaking above these two levels will increase the chances of a bullish reversal in medium-term trend. At 1.3225 we find the first important medium-term target if the reversal is confirmed.

Forex analysis 18 Jul 2019, 14:15 UTC+00
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5 July 18, 2019 : EUR/USD maintains short-term bearish outlook below 1.1235.
The recent bullish pullback towards the depicted key zone around 1.1235 was suggested be considered as a valid SELL...
Back in June, Temporary Bullish breakout above 1.1335 was demonstrated (suggesting a high probability bullish continuation pattern). However, the EURUSD looked overbought around 1.1400 facing a confluence of supply levels. Thus, a bearish movement was initiated towards 1.1275 followed by a deeper bearish decline towards 1.1235 (the lower limit of the newly-established bullish channel) which failed to provide enough bullish support for the EUR/USD. Recent bearish breakdown below 1.1235...

analytics5d3091ce7b112.jpg

Back in June, Temporary Bullish breakout above 1.1335 was demonstrated (suggesting a high probability bullish continuation pattern).

However, the EURUSD looked overbought around 1.1400 facing a confluence of supply levels.

Thus, a bearish movement was initiated towards 1.1275 followed by a deeper bearish decline towards 1.1235 (the lower limit of the newly-established bullish channel) which failed to provide enough bullish support for the EUR/USD.

Recent bearish breakdown below 1.1235 invited further bearish momentum to move towards 1.1175.

However, significant bullish momentum was earlier demonstrated around 1.1200 bringing the EUR/USD pair again above 1.1235.

That's why, the recent bullish pullback was expected to pursue towards the price zone around 1.1275 where a confluence of resistance/supply levels came to meet the pair.

A recent double-top Bearish pattern was demonstrated around the price zone of 1.1275 where a valid Intraday SELL position was suggested in previous articles.

Recent Bearish breakdown of the pattern neckline around (1.1235) confirms the short-term trend reversal into bearish towards 1.1175.

The recent bullish pullback towards the depicted key zone around 1.1235 was suggested be considered as a valid SELL entry.

Fortunately, evident bearish rejection (bearish engulfing H4 candlestick) was recently expressed around 1.1235. This supports the suggested bearish trade which is running in profits.

On the other hand, any bullish breakout above (1.1235-1.1250) should be watched as it brings the EUR/USD pair again between depicted price-zones (1.1235-1.1275) until another breakout attempt is demonstrated in either directions (More probably to the downside).

Trade recommendations :

For Intraday traders, a valid SELL entry can be offered at retesting of the broken neckline around 1.1235.

Initial Target levels to be located around 1.1200 and 1.1175.

Stop Loss should be placed above 1.1260.

Forex analysis 18 Jul 2019, 15:37 UTC+00
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6 EUR/USD: ECB rumors, Mnuchin's refutation, and Italy again
The euro/dollar pair cannot determine the vector of movement. The weakness of the euro pulls the price down to the...
The euro/dollar pair cannot determine the vector of its movement. The weakness of the European currency pulls the price down to the borders of the 11th figure, but the uncertainty of traders in the development of further dollar rally does not allow the EUR/USD bears to identify new price horizons. In general, the fundamental picture is not in favor of the euro, especially in light of the rumors published today about the possible actions of the ECB. At the same time, the dollar also cannot...

The euro/dollar pair cannot determine the vector of its movement. The weakness of the European currency pulls the price down to the borders of the 11th figure, but the uncertainty of traders in the development of further dollar rally does not allow the EUR/USD bears to identify new price horizons.

In general, the fundamental picture is not in favor of the euro, especially in light of the rumors published today about the possible actions of the ECB. At the same time, the dollar also cannot gain universal support against the background of incomprehensible prospects for US-China relations, as well as against the background of possible actions of the White House regarding the overvalued greenback. In the end, the pair is forced to trade in a flat, although the general trend is directed toward reducing the price of EUR/USD. However, to consolidate the pair within the 11th figure, bears need a strong information occasion. At the moment, the fundamental background of the pair is very controversial.

analytics5d308d2e2509a.jpg

Let's start with the problems of the single currency. Actually, traders have not learned anything new today – the information published by Bloomberg once again reminded investors that they need to prepare for the easing of monetary policy on the part of the ECB. According to insider information, the members of the European regulator are ready at the July meeting to update the ECB's mandate on inflation. According to rumors, the Central Bank will revise (reduce) the target inflation level, which is now "slightly below" two percent in the medium term. The euro/dollar pair, which this morning rose almost to the middle of the 12th figure, reacted instantly, falling by 45 points. After all, the information that the ECB can revise its inflation target is a warning signal for traders. Such a step will create conditions for a long period (longer than the market assumes) of application of incentive programs. Although this is just a rumor, traders "believed" them, hurrying to get rid of the euro.

However, not only macroeconomics puts pressure on the single currency. Today, Italy reminded of itself again, where political passions have been boiling for several weeks. And if earlier, the foreign exchange market ignored these events (reasonably considering it a local conflict), today's statement by Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio (leader of the "5-star movement") sent a signal to a possible political crisis in the country. He accused his coalition partners – the League party – of provoking the collapse of the coalition government. In turn, the leader of the "League" Matteo Salvini allowed the possibility of early elections, putting forward similar accusations towards his colleagues. The fact is that the two leading parties of Italy have faced serious disagreements regarding the election of German Ursula von der Leyen to the post of head of the European Commission. According to preliminary agreements, representatives of both parties had to vote for her candidacy in the European Parliament. However, members of the "League" in the end, voted against it. With a minimum margin (only 9 votes) Leyen took her post, but this situation has exacerbated the conflict between the members of the Italian coalition.

Traders fear that if it really comes to early elections, the wave of anti-European sentiment in Italy will come to power more radical eurosceptics, which will only strengthen the political conflict between Rome and Brussels. Although the likelihood of the "Italexit" is small enough, the next political confrontation may have a negative impact on the dynamics of growth of the European economy, which is experiencing not the best times.

All of the above fundamental factors quite reasonably pull EUR/USD down to the borders of the 11th figure. But as soon as today, the pair approached the level of 1.1205, the southern momentum faded and the price actually returned to the opening level. This happened for several reasons. First, the dollar reacted strongly to the comments of the Minister of Finance of the USA Steven Mnuchin, which denied the rumors about the intentions of the White House to devalue the dollar. Perhaps the dollar bulls were confused by the very wording of this refutation. Mnuchin said that "at the moment" there is no change in the policy of a strong dollar, although this issue may be considered in the future. In other words, although the Minister denied such intentions in the short term, he did not rule them out in the future. Such rhetoric remains uncertain about the dollar's prospects, especially if the Fed at its July meeting takes a less "dovish" position than the market expects.

In addition, yesterday in the United States, quite disappointing macroeconomic data were published. The number of issued permits for housing construction decreased by 6% in June-this is the worst result in the last two years. This indicator is an important leading indicator of the health of the real estate market (and the economy as a whole), so such a weak dynamics suspended the growth of the dollar throughout the market.

analytics5d308d1d541f1.jpg

Thus, both the dollar and the euro continue to be under pressure of their own fundamental problems. The single currency in this confrontation looks, of course, weaker – but due to the lack of powerful info drivers, EUR/USD bears cannot develop a full-scale downward movement to the main support level of 1.1100. Therefore, the pair will continue to hang out in the flat in the near future, trading in the range of 1.1160-1.1280 (the lower and middle lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator on D1, respectively).

Forex analysis 18 Jul 2019, 16:03 UTC+00
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7 GBP and EUR: Great Britain will be able to avoid a recession, but the last word will come from the deal on Brexit. The ECB may lower rates already at the July meeting
The pound managed to continue its upward correction, which has been observed since yesterday. More than good data on...
GBPUSD The pound managed to continue its upward correction, which has been observed since yesterday. More than good data on the growth of retail sales in the UK returned to the market even pessimistic traders on bullish growth. The report, which was published today, indicated a sharp increase in retail sales after a decline for two consecutive months. Such data, though it does not affect the slowing UK economy in the 2nd quarter of this year, will avoid an impending recession. However,...

GBPUSD

The pound managed to continue its upward correction, which has been observed since yesterday. More than good data on the growth of retail sales in the UK returned to the market even pessimistic traders on bullish growth.

The report, which was published today, indicated a sharp increase in retail sales after a decline for two consecutive months. Such data, though it does not affect the slowing UK economy in the 2nd quarter of this year, will avoid an impending recession. However, much, of course, will depend on Brexit and the scenarios under which it will develop.

According to official data, in June this year, retail sales increased by 1.0% compared to May. The largest growth was achieved by sales of clothing and footwear. As for the three-month reporting period, sales increased by 0.7% from April to June.

analytics5d308f76ccf96.png

However, as noted above, the problems with the UK's withdrawal from the EU remain quite serious, and the postponement of the break-in trade relations from March 29 to October 31, in fact, only complicates everything.

This was also mentioned today in the report on the management of fiscal responsibility in the UK, where it was pointed out that a high probability of an annual recession in the case of Brexit without an agreement. In this scenario, GDP will fall by 2.1%. Additional damage to tax revenues is also predicted in the case of the most severe Brexit scenario. The office also noted that to maintain the UK economy in a more or less normal position, additional borrowing of 30 billion pounds a year would be required.

As for the technical picture of the pair GBPUSD, the further growth of the pound is unlikely to continue as the trading instrument approaches the highs around 1.2520 and 1.2560. In the area of these levels, bears, putting on the toughest scenario for Brexit and the new British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, will show themselves most actively, and this will be done in order to keep the current downward trend, formed on June 25 this year.

EURUSD

The European currency in the absence of important fundamental statistics declined in the morning after the news that the European Central Bank may revise the inflation target. Such messages appeared on Bloomberg Television. Let me remind you that the current target level of inflation now stands at a little less than 2%.

It is not surprising that the euro failed in this news, as many traders and economists expect stimulus measures from the European regulator, which it can announce at its next meeting on monetary policy.

There are also rumors on the market that the ECB will adjust its statement following the July meeting and announce that in the coming months it may need to reduce interest rates – and this is a very bad sign for the euro and further growth prospects. With this development of the situation, it is possible to lay on a medium-term decline of the EURUSD trading instrument in the area of 1.1000 and 1.0900 levels.

As for the current short-term picture, a large support level of 1.1190 remains, and its breakthrough will lead to a further bearish trend and a test of the lows of 1.1130 and 1.1070.

Forex analysis 18 Jul 2019, 14:15 UTC+00
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8 July 18, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
Recently, quick bearish decline was expected to occur towards 1.2450-1.2400 (the lower limit of the current movement...
Since May 17, the previous downside movement within the depicted bearish channel came to a pause allowing the recent sideway consolidation range to be established between 1.2750 - 1.2550 with a prominent key-level around 1.2650. In June , temporary bullish consolidation patterns were demonstrated above 1.2650 for a few trading sessions. However, the price level of 1.2750 (consolidation range upper limit) has prevented further bullish advancement few times so far. Moreover, signs of...

analytics5d309b4dc339b.jpg

Since May 17, the previous downside movement within the depicted bearish channel came to a pause allowing the recent sideway consolidation range to be established between 1.2750 - 1.2550 with a prominent key-level around 1.2650.

In June , temporary bullish consolidation patterns were demonstrated above 1.2650 for a few trading sessions.

However, the price level of 1.2750 (consolidation range upper limit) has prevented further bullish advancement few times so far.

Moreover, signs of bearish rejection have been manifested (Head & Shoulders reversal pattern with neckline located around 1.2650).

Bearish breakdown below 1.2650 (reversal pattern neckline) confirmed the reversal pattern with bearish projection target located at 1.2550, 1.2510 and 1.2450.

Intermediate-term technical outlook remains under bearish pressure as long as the market keeps moving below 1.2650 (mid-range key-level and neckline of the reversal pattern).

Moreover, the recent Bearish breakdown below 1.2570 - 1.2550 (the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range) confirms a trend reversal into bearish on the short-term.

On the other hand, the recent bullish pullback towards 1.2550-1.2570 was recommended as a valid SELL opportunity for Intraday traders. All bearish Target levels have already been reached.

Recently, quick bearish decline was expected to occur towards 1.2450-1.2400 (the lower limit of the current movement channel) where recent bullish rejection and a bullish pullback was initiated.

Further bullish advancement was demonstrated towards the depicted price zone 1.2480-1.2500 (61.8% - 50% Fibonacci levels) where bearish pressure is expected to be demonstrated.

However, any bullish breakout above 1.2500 (61.8% Fibonacci level) enhances further bullish pullback towards the backside of the broken consolidation range (1.2550) where another valid SELL entry will probably be offered.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders can wait for a pullback towards the backside of the broken consolidation range (1.2550) for a valid SELL Entry.

T/P levels to be located around 1.2480 and 1.2430.

S/L should be placed above 1.2590.

Forex analysis 18 Jul 2019, 16:18 UTC+00
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9 What will the Fed do and why the Australian dollar is growing
Expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut dominate the money markets, and some investors forecast a decline of 50...
The dollar is falling steadily against the basket of major currencies on the second day against the background of weak data on US Treasury bonds and the housing sector. Now, investors are likely to estimate the Fed's interest rate cut for the first time in a decade. Expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut dominate the money markets, and some investors forecast a 50 basis point cut. It is expected that by the end of the year the Fed will cut a total of almost 75 basis points. "We...

analytics5d3089bde3ff5.jpg

The dollar is falling steadily against the basket of major currencies on the second day against the background of weak data on US Treasury bonds and the housing sector. Now, investors are likely to estimate the Fed's interest rate cut for the first time in a decade. Expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut dominate the money markets, and some investors forecast a 50 basis point cut. It is expected that by the end of the year the Fed will cut a total of almost 75 basis points.

"We certainly see that both from the Fed and the ECB, there are more specific signals regarding policy easing, the question is how much the Fed will cut the rate next week," – Commerzbank said. Morgan Stanley notes that the overall outlook for risky assets remains bearish due to disappointing earnings reports in the US and weak prospects for world trade. "All this gives good reasons for the fact that the Fed will consider the possibility of reducing the rate by 50 b.p. at the end of this month," the note to customers said, adding that a 50-point reduction would sharply weaken the dollar, especially against high-yield currencies.

Despite rising expectations of lower interest rates in the US, the euro is stuck in a narrow trading range around $ 1.12, while investors expect the ECB to go for the Fed. Currently, the probability of a rate cut of 10 basis points next week is 50%. The weakness of the dollar pushed other currencies.

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The Australian dollar led the growth thanks to a positive report on jobs. Unemployment remained stable at 5.2% for the third month in a row. The Australian dollar rose 0.3% to 0.7031 dollars. At the same time, the rate of part-time employment in June fell from 8.6% to 8.2%. The underemployment rate has a higher correlation with interest rate and wages than the unemployment rate, and is likely to push the Australian even higher.

News 18 Jul 2019, 15:10 UTC+00
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10 EURUSD rejected at 1.1250 resistance
EURUSD tried to bounce of the 1.12 support area towards the critical 1.1250 resistance. Price reached 1.1244 but got...
EURUSD tried to bounce of the 1.12 support area towards the critical 1.1250 resistance. Price reached 1.1244 but got sharply rejected and price fell back towards 1.12. So far support remains intact. Bulls need to recapture 1.1250 in order to hope for a move towards 1.1350-1.14. Red rectangle -major short-term resistance Black line -resistance trend lines Green line -support trend line Green area - horizontal support area EURUSD is trading above crucial support. Bulls need to take out...

EURUSD tried to bounce of the 1.12 support area towards the critical 1.1250 resistance. Price reached 1.1244 but got sharply rejected and price fell back towards 1.12. So far support remains intact. Bulls need to recapture 1.1250 in order to hope for a move towards 1.1350-1.14.

analytics5d307d4f66f5d.png

Red rectangle -major short-term resistance

Black line -resistance trend lines

Green line -support trend line

Green area - horizontal support area

EURUSD is trading above crucial support. Bulls need to take out 1.1250 resistance area in order to challenge the major resistance area of 1.1280. Inability to break above 1.1250 will eventually lead to a break of 1.12 and a push lower towards 1.10. Support is crucial at 1.12-1.1180. Also keep a close eye on the RSI and its black trend line. A break above the trend line would imply more strength is coming for EURUSD. Staying below the black trend line will result in bears retaining control of the trend.

Forex analysis 18 Jul 2019, 14:11 UTC+00
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