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1 Technical analysis for EUR/USD for January 23, 2019
We have presented the daily chart view for EUR/USD as a bigger picture view is required for medium term outlook....
Technical outlook: We have presented the daily chart view for EUR/USD as a bigger picture view is required for medium term outlook. EUR/USD dropped from 1.2550 levels through 1.1300 levels between February and August 2018 and unfolded into 5 waves as depicted here. Ideally, after a 5-wave movement towards the larger trend, one can expect a 3-wave counter trend movement which has been depicted as (A)-(B)-(C) on the chart view here. A higher probability could is that of an expanded flat,...

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Technical outlook:

We have presented the daily chart view for EUR/USD as a bigger picture view is required for medium term outlook. EUR/USD dropped from 1.2550 levels through 1.1300 levels between February and August 2018 and unfolded into 5 waves as depicted here. Ideally, after a 5-wave movement towards the larger trend, one can expect a 3-wave counter trend movement which has been depicted as (A)-(B)-(C) on the chart view here. A higher probability could is that of an expanded flat, which could reach 1.1800 levels at least. Please note that resistance is at 1.1815 levels while interim support is seen at 1.1270, followed by 1.1213 levels respectively. For the above discussed structure to remain valid, prices should stay above 1.1213 levels from here on. Also note that the fibonacci 0.618 resistance of drop between 1.2550 and 1.1300 levels is seen at 1.2042 levels, hence possibility remains for a push until those limits.

Trading plan:

Long now @ 1.1360/70, stop at 1.1213, target @ 1.1800/20

Good luck!

Forex analysis 23 Jan 2019, 03:18 UTC+00
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2 Trading plan for 23/01/2019
Markets remain stable in most cases, waiting for new events. The decision of the Bank of Japan did not surprise and...
Trading plan for 23/01/2019: Markets remain stable in most cases, waiting for new events. The decision of the Bank of Japan did not surprise and passed unnoticed. The growth leader in the currency market is NZD after a better-than-forecast CPI reading. Indices in Asia were almost still, Shanghai Composite is at Tuesday's closing level. Japanese Nikkei225 loses 0.1 percent. On Wednesday, the 23rd of January, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the global investors...

Trading plan for 23/01/2019:

Markets remain stable in most cases, waiting for new events. The decision of the Bank of Japan did not surprise and passed unnoticed.

The growth leader in the currency market is NZD after a better-than-forecast CPI reading. Indices in Asia were almost still, Shanghai Composite is at Tuesday's closing level. Japanese Nikkei225 loses 0.1 percent.

On Wednesday, the 23rd of January, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the global investors might want to keep an eye on Retail Sales data from Canada, House Prices Index data from the US and Consumer Confidence data from the Eurozone. Moreover, there is a speech from BOE Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Ben Broadbent scheduled early in the morning.

USD/JPY analysis for 23/01/2019:

The main event of the night was the Bank Of Japan Interest Rate Announcement, Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes release and BoJ Press Conference.

BoJ has maintained the interest rate at the negative level of -0.10% as expected and the target for 10-year bond yields remained at 0.0%. BoJ cut GDP growth forecasts for the current fiscal year 2018/19 to 0.9%. from 1.4%, and slightly raised forecasts for the next two years. The inflation forecast for 2021 was also lowered.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The BoJ interest rate decision did not have too much impact on the market behavior as the price has bounced from the technical support at the level of 109.15 after the Pin Bar candlestick was made. The bulls have managed to rally towards the level of 109.80 but the last H4 candle looks like a Shooting Star, which might indicate a trend reversal. That's why, despite the fact that the trend is still bullish and the target is seen at the level of 110.18, the bears might take more control over the market once the price break through the local support at the level of 109.48. Then the technical support at 109.15 will be tested again (red arrow scenario). Otherwise, the uptrend should remain intact as the momentum is still positive and strong.

analytics5c4814425a7b4.jpg

Forex analysis 23 Jan 2019, 06:13 UTC+00
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3 Technical analysis for Gold for January 23, 2019
Gold price has been in the uptrend since August and has managed to rise from $1,160 to nearly $1,300 where we find an...
Gold price has been in an up trend since August and has managed to rise from $1,160 to nearly $1,300 where we find an important Fibonacci retracement level. Although technically we remain in a bullish trend and this price pull back is considered corrective in nature, we should not ignore the bearish scenario. Green rectangle - next target if resistance at $1,300 breaks Red rectangle - Fibonacci resistance Gold price has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of resistance and...

Gold price has been in an up trend since August and has managed to rise from $1,160 to nearly $1,300 where we find an important Fibonacci retracement level. Although technically we remain in a bullish trend and this price pull back is considered corrective in nature, we should not ignore the bearish scenario.

analytics5c48103d970ac.png

Green rectangle - next target if resistance at $1,300 breaks

Red rectangle - Fibonacci resistance

Gold price has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of resistance and got rejected. This is a very important Fibonacci level because around this level we usually see changes in trend. So as long as price remains below the $1,300 resistance area, we remain cautious and the bearish scenario for a deeper pullback remains in play. If price breaks above resistance we should then expect price to reach $1,320. Short-term support is found at $1,270 and any break below it will be a sign of weakness. A move below $1,250-25 will increase the chances of a bigger downtrend in play targeting below $1,160.

Forex analysis 23 Jan 2019, 06:00 UTC+00
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4 Burning forecast 01/23/2019
EURUSD: On the threshold of movement. The volatility of the pair has fallen to its lowest levels in recent days - the...
The volatility of the EURUSD pair has fallen to the lowest values in recent days - the market is preparing to move. There are still three main subjects - and none is resolved until the end: 1) the Shutdown in the US - the vote in the Senate on the way out of the budget crisis will begin in the near future; 2) the EU-Britain Agreement - it is most likely that they will accept the Labour Party's proposal and postpone the deadline of Brexit - it's now March 29th. And finally (3) - the ECB...

The volatility of the EURUSD pair has fallen to the lowest values in recent days - the market is preparing to move.

There are still three main subjects - and none is resolved until the end: 1) the Shutdown in the US - the vote in the Senate on the way out of the budget crisis will begin in the near future; 2) the EU-Britain Agreement - it is most likely that they will accept the Labour Party's proposal and postpone the deadline of Brexit - it's now March 29th.

And finally (3) - the ECB monetary policy meeting: there is no reason for the ECB to change its course to super-soft policy - but even a slight deviation from the soft rate could blow up the market - the ECB's decision on Thursday January 24th.

We are preparing purchases from 1.1415.

Alternative: sell from 1.1300.

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Forex analysis 23 Jan 2019, 07:27 UTC+00
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5 Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for January 23, 2019
GBP/JPY dipped to a low of 140.63 before moving higher again as expected. We are looking for upside acceleration...
GBP/JPY dipped to a low of 140.63 before moving higher again as expected. We are looking for upside acceleration towards the 145.17 and likely even closer to 147.71 as the next hurdles on the way towards 151.90 in wave iii. Support is now seen at 141.35 with key support at 140.63, which should be able to protect the downside for the acceleration higher. R3: 143.81 R2: 142.71 R1: 142.29 Pivot: 141.35 S1: 141.05 S2: 140.63 S3: 140.25 Trading recommendation: We are long GBP from...

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GBP/JPY dipped to a low of 140.63 before moving higher again as expected. We are looking for upside acceleration towards the 145.17 and likely even closer to 147.71 as the next hurdles on the way towards 151.90 in wave iii.

Support is now seen at 141.35 with key support at 140.63, which should be able to protect the downside for the acceleration higher.

R3: 143.81

R2: 142.71

R1: 142.29

Pivot: 141.35

S1: 141.05

S2: 140.63

S3: 140.25

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 140.90 and we will move our stop higher to 140.50.

Forex analysis 23 Jan 2019, 04:54 UTC+00
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6 Wave analysis of EUR / USD for January 23. The pair keeps hoping for growth
On Tuesday, January 22, trading ended for EUR / USD by 10 bpts. Thus, the tool remains within the framework of the...
Wave counting analysis: On Tuesday, January 22, trading ended for EUR / USD by 10 bpts. Thus, the tool remains within the framework of the construction of the proposed wave 4, in s. If this is true, then the increase in quotations will resume in the near future as part of wave 5 with targets located around 16 figures. At the same time, a successful attempt to break through the minimum of wave 2 will result in the need to clarify the entire wave marking, and the tool will most likely...

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Wave counting analysis:

On Tuesday, January 22, trading ended for EUR / USD by 10 bpts. Thus, the tool remains within the framework of the construction of the proposed wave 4, in s. If this is true, then the increase in quotations will resume in the near future as part of wave 5 with targets located around 16 figures. At the same time, a successful attempt to break through the minimum of wave 2 will result in the need to clarify the entire wave marking, and the tool will most likely move on to building a new downward trend.

Sales targets:

1.1345 - 38.2% Fibonacci

1.1315 - 23.6% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1599 - 161.8% Fibonacci

1.1677 - 200.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair remains in the construction stage of the proposed wave 4, in s. However, a sluggish tool reduction can lead to the need to correct the current markup. The main option is to increase within wave 5. If you make a purchase, you must with protective orders under the minimum of wave 2, c, with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.1599 and 1.1677, which corresponds to 161.8% and 200, 0% Fibonacci.

Forex analysis 23 Jan 2019, 06:53 UTC+00
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7 GBP/USD: plan for the European session on January 23. No news on Brexit
GBP/USD: plan for the European session on January 23. No news on Brexit
To open long positions on GBP/USD you need: The pound continues to show a slight increase against the background of statements by the British Prime Minister Theresa May on the changes in Brexit, but there is no support from the major players yet. While trading is above support at 1.2944, the demand for the pound will remain, which will lead to an update of the monthly high around 1.3006, where I recommend taking profits. Any positive news on Brexit could lead to a more dramatic...

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

The pound continues to show a slight increase against the background of statements by the British Prime Minister Theresa May on the changes in Brexit, but there is no support from the major players yet. While trading is above support at 1.2944, the demand for the pound will remain, which will lead to an update of the monthly high around 1.3006, where I recommend taking profits. Any positive news on Brexit could lead to a more dramatic strengthening of GBPUSD, with the update levels 1.3064 and 1.3127. In the event of a decrease under the support area of 1.2944, it is best to look closely at long positions around 1.2894 and at a rebound from 1.2833.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

The update of yesterday's highs with confirmation of the divergence on the MACD indicator will be a direct signal to the opening of short positions in the British pound. However, the main task for the bears will be to return to the support level of 1.2944, which will lead to the formation of a downward trend and the sale of GBP/USD in the area of lows 1.2894 and 1.2833, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of good news on Brexit and the breakdown of the high of 1.3006, I recommend to consider short positions in GBP/USD only after updating the levels of 1.3064 and 1.3127.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted slightly above the 30-day and 50-day moving, but in the current environment it does not mean the continuation of the upward trend in the pound.

Bollinger bands

In case of a decrease in the pound in the first half of the day, the intermediate support will be the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.2900.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
Forex analysis 23 Jan 2019, 07:09 UTC+00
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8 Technical analysis for EUR/USD for January 23, 2019
EUR/USD reached very close to our 1.1320 target. This target was given once 1.14 failed to hold. Price now seems to...
EUR/USD reached very close to our 1.1320 target. This target was given once 1.14 failed to hold. Price now seems to be turning upwards. In the weekly chart we see price respecting the weekly trend line support and this is a bullish sign. Red rectangle - major resistance Black line - major support trend line EUR/USD continues to make higher lows since November. Major resistance is at 1.1470-1.15. A beak above it will open the way for a move towards 1.17 at least. Support is critical at...

EUR/USD reached very close to our 1.1320 target. This target was given once 1.14 failed to hold. Price now seems to be turning upwards. In the weekly chart we see price respecting the weekly trend line support and this is a bullish sign.

analytics5c4811714d068.png

Red rectangle - major resistance

Black line - major support trend line

EUR/USD continues to make higher lows since November. Major resistance is at 1.1470-1.15. A beak above it will open the way for a move towards 1.17 at least. Support is critical at 1.13 and if price breaks below it I expect to eventually see a move towards 1.10-1.11. I continue to favor the bullish scenario as long as we trade above 1.13. Risk reward favors bulls now.

Forex analysis 23 Jan 2019, 06:04 UTC+00
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9 Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 23/01/2019
The market bounces from technical support, time for the rally
Technical market overview: The EUR/USD market has hit the technical support at the level of 1.1336 and bounced nicely towards the technical resistance at the level of 1.1371. Moreover, the price has broken through the orange trend line as well, which might indicate the bulls are treating this bounce seriously and might even start to rally once the resistance zone between the levels of 1.1371 - 1.1318 is clearly violated. The market conditions are extremely oversold and the momentum is...

Technical market overview:

The EUR/USD market has hit the technical support at the level of 1.1336 and bounced nicely towards the technical resistance at the level of 1.1371. Moreover, the price has broken through the orange trend line as well, which might indicate the bulls are treating this bounce seriously and might even start to rally once the resistance zone between the levels of 1.1371 - 1.1318 is clearly violated.

The market conditions are extremely oversold and the momentum is negative, which supports the short-term bullish outlook. The larger time frame trend is still bearish, so the ease of movement is to the downside.

Recommendations:

The bulls are trying to take over the market control, so once the technical resistance zone between the levels of 1.1371 - 1.1380 is clearly violated, there might be another move up towards the level of 1.1414.

analytics5c480d17acd18.jpg

Forex analysis 23 Jan 2019, 05:43 UTC+00
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10 EUR/USD: plan for the European session on January 23. There is no reference point for further movement
EUR/USD: plan for the European session on January 23. There is no reference point for further movement
To open long positions on EURUSD you need: Yesterday's weak data for the euro area led to selling the European currency, but a larger downward movement did not happen. At present, the first signal to buy EUR/USD will be a breakdown and consolidation above the resistance level of 1.1376, which will lead to a stronger upward correction in the region of the high of 1.1411 and 1.1451, where I recommend taking profits. The formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.1339 will also...

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday's weak data for the euro area led to selling the European currency, but a larger downward movement did not happen. At present, the first signal to buy EUR/USD will be a breakdown and consolidation above the resistance level of 1.1376, which will lead to a stronger upward correction in the region of the high of 1.1411 and 1.1451, where I recommend taking profits. The formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.1339 will also be the reason for buying the European currency. Otherwise, it is best to open long positions to rebound from this year's low around 1.1307.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The release of fundamental statistics for the eurozone in the morning is not planned. Therefore, only the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.1376 will be the first signal to open short positions with the main purpose of returning and consolidating below yesterday's low in the area of 1.1339, which will lead to a larger sale of EUR/USD with an exit to the level of 1.1307, where I recommend to fix the profit. In the case of the euro growth scenario, it is best to return to short positions to rebound from a high of 1.1411.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the formation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator is low, which does not give signals to enter the market.

-uY7CpKD4BeCHd0RtAgQrcROrLFzQP2aDLiKbcg8

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
Forex analysis 23 Jan 2019, 07:03 UTC+00
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