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1 Control zones USDJPY 03/25/19
Last week, the pair formed a downward impulse model, which makes it possible to keep sales open at the main...
Last Friday, the US session closed below the weekly KZ 110.37-110.20, which indicates a high probability that the downward movement will continue. Re-sales are possible if the pair forms an upward corrective movement. Favorable prices for selling are at levels 110.16-110.29. The target of the downward movement is the NKZ 1/2 109.33-109.25, formed from a weekly short-circuit. Achieving this zone will make it possible to consolidate a large part of the profit. An alternative model will...

Last Friday, the US session closed below the weekly KZ 110.37-110.20, which indicates a high probability that the downward movement will continue. Re-sales are possible if the pair forms an upward corrective movement. Favorable prices for selling are at levels 110.16-110.29.

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The target of the downward movement is the NKZ 1/2 109.33-109.25, formed from a weekly short-circuit. Achieving this zone will make it possible to consolidate a large part of the profit.

An alternative model will be developed if the close of today's trading occurs above the level of 110.29. This will make it possible to form a local accumulation zone, where favorable prices for selling will be located at the NKZ 1/2 10.65-110.57. It is important to understand that the probability of continuing the downward impulse is at 70%, which makes any sales of the instrument profitable at a distance. In order for the risk-to-profit ratio to be profitable, you will need to wait for favorable prices to open a short position.

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Daily KZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly KZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly KZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

Forex analysis 25 Mar 2019, 05:09 UTC+00
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2 Trading plan for EUR/USD for March 25, 2019
The H4 chart for EUR/USD has been presented here with potential wave counts which could reflect the medium-term...
Technical outlook: The H4 chart for EUR/USD has been presented here with potential wave counts which could reflect the medium-term outlook. Please note that the EURUSD pair has reached the support range between the 1.1280 and 1.1340 levels, respectively. On Friday, an intraday low was made at the 1.1273 levels before pulling back towards 1.1300. The potential wave structure could be defined as an impulse wave between 1.1175 and 1.1443, labelled as Wave 1 on the chart here. The drop can...

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Technical outlook:

The H4 chart for EUR/USD has been presented here with potential wave counts which could reflect the medium-term outlook. Please note that the EURUSD pair has reached the support range between the 1.1280 and 1.1340 levels, respectively. On Friday, an intraday low was made at the 1.1273 levels before pulling back towards 1.1300. The potential wave structure could be defined as an impulse wave between 1.1175 and 1.1443, labelled as Wave 1 on the chart here. The drop can be seen as corrective (a-b-c), but we have kept the alternate count open which could produce a 5 wave drop from the 1.1443 levels. If the prices manage to hold above the 1.1273 levels, the next move should be bullish towards the 1.1700/1.1800 levels. As an alternative, if the prices drop below the 1.1273 levels producing an impulse, we would look out for a potential short opportunity on a pullback rally. For now, we remain on the higher side.

Trading plan:

Remain long, stop below the 1.1273 levels, the target is open.

Good luck!

Forex analysis 25 Mar 2019, 04:45 UTC+00
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3 Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 25/03/2019
The bounce towards the middle of the range was made, what's next
Technical market overview: The GBP/USD pair has bounced from the level of 1.3012 and went straight up towards the level of technical resistance at 1.3207. Despite the bullish efforts, the price is still trading below the orange trendline, so the bears are still in control over this market. The momentum remains neutral and so are market conditions, so the price might be trading sideways for some time until one of the important levels if violated. Weekly Pivot Ponts: WR3 - 1.3650 WR2 -...

Technical market overview:

The GBP/USD pair has bounced from the level of 1.3012 and went straight up towards the level of technical resistance at 1.3207. Despite the bullish efforts, the price is still trading below the orange trendline, so the bears are still in control over this market. The momentum remains neutral and so are market conditions, so the price might be trading sideways for some time until one of the important levels if violated.

Weekly Pivot Ponts:

WR3 - 1.3650

WR2 - 1.3473

WR1 - 1.3340

Weekly Pivot - 1.3164

WS1 - 1.3039

WS2 - 1.2867

WS3 - 1.2742

Trading recommendations:

The market is now under the technical resistance and under the trendline, so the bias for the daytraders remains bearish and only sell orders should be opened as close as possible to the level of 1.3207. The target would be the other side of the horizontal trading range, at 1.3012.

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Forex analysis 25 Mar 2019, 07:29 UTC+00
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4 Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 25/03/2019
The 61% Fibonacci retracement gets tested, what's next
Technical market overview: The EUR/USD pair has retraced 61% of the last wave up afte the false attempt to break throught the technical resistance zone located between the levels of 1.1406 - 1.1419 wa smade and the Three Red Soldiers candlestick pattern was made. The bounce was very shallow, about 20 pips so far, the momentum remains weak and negative despite the oversold market conditions, so another move down is still on the table. Weekly Pivot Ponts: WR3 - 1.1551 WR2 - 1.1500 WR1 -...

Technical market overview:

The EUR/USD pair has retraced 61% of the last wave up afte the false attempt to break throught the technical resistance zone located between the levels of 1.1406 - 1.1419 wa smade and the Three Red Soldiers candlestick pattern was made. The bounce was very shallow, about 20 pips so far, the momentum remains weak and negative despite the oversold market conditions, so another move down is still on the table.

Weekly Pivot Ponts:

WR3 - 1.1551

WR2 - 1.1500

WR1 - 1.1377

Weekly Pivot - 1.1325

WS1 - 1.1198

WS2 - 1.1148

WS3 - 1.1029

Trading recommendations:

The sell orders should be placed from the level of 1.1335 in a case of any pull-back upwards and the sell stop orders should be opened below the level of 1.1272, where the local low is. The targets are seen at the levels of 1.1249 and 1.1220.

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Forex analysis 25 Mar 2019, 07:19 UTC+00
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5 Technical analysis: Intraday levels for USD/JPY, Mar 25, 2019
In Asia, Japan will release the All Industries Activity m/m, while the US will not publish any economic data today....
In Asia, Japan will release the All Industries Activity m/m, while the US will not publish any economic data today. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 110.37. Resistance. 2: 110.16. Resistance. 1: 109.94. Support. 1: 109.68. Support. 2: 109.46. Support. 3: 109.25. (Disclaimer)

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In Asia, Japan will release the All Industries Activity m/m, while the US will not publish any economic data today. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 110.37. Resistance. 2: 110.16. Resistance. 1: 109.94. Support. 1: 109.68. Support. 2: 109.46. Support. 3: 109.25. (Disclaimer)

Forex analysis 25 Mar 2019, 02:07 UTC+00
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6 Trading Plan 03/25/2019
Big Picture: Brexit mixed cards again
The Fed's decision to halt the rate hike gave a clear boost to the market against the dollar. However, unexpectedly, the Brexit theme returned to the market - and everything is confusing again. Prime Minister Theresa May received a delay until April for new attempts to hold an agreement with the EU through Parliament - and now the release date for Britain is May 25. On Monday, the Parliament will once again hold another vote on May's plan. Most likely, May will see a new failure - and...

The Fed's decision to halt the rate hike gave a clear boost to the market against the dollar.

However, unexpectedly, the Brexit theme returned to the market - and everything is confusing again.

Prime Minister Theresa May received a delay until April for new attempts to hold an agreement with the EU through Parliament - and now the release date for Britain is May 25.

On Monday, the Parliament will once again hold another vote on May's plan. Most likely, May will see a new failure - and on Wednesday, the Parliament will vote for all possible options: including a new referendum and version of an agreement with the EU.

Thus, the Brexit theme will be in a fever in the market until Thursday for sure.

We are ready to join the euro's trend if it starts

We buy the euro from 1.1450

Sell the euro from 1.1175

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Forex analysis 25 Mar 2019, 08:26 UTC+00
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7 Bitcoin Elliott Wave analysis for 25/03/2019
The sideways horizontal trading continues
Technical market overview: The BTC/USD pair has been slowly trading inside of the narrow horizontal zone located between the levels of $3,967 - $4,048 with a little downside bias. The momentum remains weak and negative with clearly supports the current wave scenario of this pair, in which there is a missing sub-wave (c) in the wave 2 of a higher degree. The target level for wave 2 is way below the current price, at $3,813 and any violation of the level of $3,967 will be a first sigh that...

Technical market overview:

The BTC/USD pair has been slowly trading inside of the narrow horizontal zone located between the levels of $3,967 - $4,048 with a little downside bias. The momentum remains weak and negative with clearly supports the current wave scenario of this pair, in which there is a missing sub-wave (c) in the wave 2 of a higher degree. The target level for wave 2 is way below the current price, at $3,813 and any violation of the level of $3,967 will be a first sigh that the sub-wave (c) continues to unfold.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $4,204

WR2 - $4,154

WR1 - $4,072

Weekly Pivot - $4,017

WS1 - $3,925

WS2 - $3,867

WS3 - $3,781

Trading recommendations:

The market is still unfolding the wave (c) to the downside, so according to this bias only sell orders should be opened on every upwards correction up to the level of $4,048. The targets ( take profit levels) are seen at the levels of $3,967 and way lower at $3,813.

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Forex analysis 25 Mar 2019, 06:48 UTC+00
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8 Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for March 25, 2019
EUR/USD is trading in an impulsive manner amid bearish momentum despite downbeat economic data and dovish stance of...
EUR lost significant momentum recently after the price rejected off the 1.1450 area with a daily close. Despite downbeat economic reports, such gains on the USD side signal severe EUR weakness. According to Finnish Central Bank chief Olli Rehn, the risk of Britain leaving the EU without a deal is the biggest risk which could aggravate the eurozone's economic slowdown in the short term. BREXIT is a biggest threat to both economies. Ahead of the BREXIT vote on March 29 th , EUR is expected to...

EUR lost significant momentum recently after the price rejected off the 1.1450 area with a daily close. Despite downbeat economic reports, such gains on the USD side signal severe EUR weakness.

According to Finnish Central Bank chief Olli Rehn, the risk of Britain leaving the EU without a deal is the biggest risk which could aggravate the eurozone's economic slowdown in the short term. BREXIT is a biggest threat to both economies. Ahead of the BREXIT vote on March 29th, EUR is expected to lose further momentum against USD. Today, German Ifo Business Climate report is going to be published with the appropriate index to edge up to 98.7 from the previous figure of 98.5. The survey will hardly make a serious impact on EUR.

On the other hand, USD was hurt by recent economic events and reports. USD lost shine as the Federal Reserve states its intention to refrain from raising interest rates throughout this year. As a result, USD is losing favor with investors. This week, the US is due to release revised GDP data which is expected to decrease to 2.4% from the previous value of 2.6%. Nevertheless, USD is still gaining momentum. The US economy is losing steam as the $1.5 trillion tax cuts arise along with cuts in government spending. Moreover, there are other global factors which dent investor confidence: the trade war between the US and China, softening global growth, and uncertainty ahead of BREXIT.

This week is going to be very volatile for both EUR and USD as the economic calendar contains high impact economic reports and events. Though USD gained momentum amid EUR weakness, any negative reading in the US macroeconomic reports like GDP will affect USD momentum. Under the current economic conditions, USD has the upper hand over EUR to gain significant momentum ahead of possible BREXIT this week.

Now let us look at the technical view. The pair is currently trading at bear the psychological level of 1.1300 with higher volatility. The price is making corrections along the way. After the impulsive bearish pressure off the 1.1450 area, further bearish momentum is expected as per the preceding trend. The price is expected to move lower towards 1.1200 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.1500 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Forex analysis 25 Mar 2019, 05:46 UTC+00
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9 EUR / USD. March 25. Trading system "Regression Channels". Eurocurrency collapsed, but still retains good chances for growth.
The EUR / USD currency pair on Monday, March 25, maintains the prospects for a downward movement even after a two-day...
Technical details: Senior linear regression channel: direction - down. Junior linear regression channel: direction - down. Moving average (20; smoothed) - down. CCI: -135.0896 On Monday , March 25, the EUR / USD currency pair maintains the prospects for a downward movement even after the pair's two-day collapse. Despite the fact that Eurocurrency frankly collapsed in recent days, although there were no valid fundamental reasons for this, the market's main attention is still focused...

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Technical details:

Senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -135.0896

On Monday , March 25, the EUR / USD currency pair maintains the prospects for a downward movement even after the pair's two-day collapse. Despite the fact that Eurocurrency frankly collapsed in recent days, although there were no valid fundamental reasons for this, the market's main attention is still focused on the UK and the Brexit process. We will not touch on this topic right now and will try to determine what awaits the EUR / USD pair in the near future. Today, no important macroeconomic publications in the European Union and the United States will be published. A strong collapse of the euro in recent days means at least a change in for a downward trend and the need for a technical upward correction. Eurocurrency may again go down to the minima in the region of 1,1200 - 1,1300. The turning points up in this area were already as many as 7. Thus, in general, If you look at the higher timeframe, we are witnessing a long-term flat. Now, when the Fed, in fact, refused to continue the gradual tightening of monetary policy, the US dollar is losing one of its main trump cards in its opposition to the euro currency. Thus, we believe that in the coming weeks, the European currency has more chances for growth. However, technically, the instrument now needs to return to the area above the moving average line.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1,1292

S2 - 1.1261

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1322

R2 - 1.1353

R3 - 1.1383

Trading recommendations:

Currency pair EUR / USD continues to move down. Thus, it is now recommended to consider sell orders with targets at 1.1292 and 1.1261. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator up will signal the beginning of an upward correction.

Buy-positions will become relevant not earlier than fixing the pair back above the moving average line with targets at 1.1383 and 1.1414, as the trend for the pair in this case will change to ascending.

In addition to the technical picture, the fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel contains the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel contains the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes .

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that are colored bars in blue or purple.

Forex analysis 25 Mar 2019, 06:52 UTC+00
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10 EUR/USD: plan for the European session on March 25. Weak data on the eurozone put pressure on the euro
EUR/USD: plan for the European session on March 25. Weak data on the eurozone put pressure on the euro
To open long positions on EURUSD you need: On Friday, a series of weak reports on the eurozone economy led to the euro's decline. At the moment, buyers need to stay above support at 1.1294, and the formation of a false breakdown there will be a signal to open long positions in order to increase towards the area of 1.1324 and 1.1358, where I recommend taking profits. In case the EUR/USD declines due to reports from IFO for Germany, it is best to return to long positions after updating the...

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

On Friday, a series of weak reports on the eurozone economy led to the euro's decline. At the moment, buyers need to stay above support at 1.1294, and the formation of a false breakdown there will be a signal to open long positions in order to increase towards the area of 1.1324 and 1.1358, where I recommend taking profits. In case the EUR/USD declines due to reports from IFO for Germany, it is best to return to long positions after updating the previous week's low to the area of 1.1269 or to rebound from the support of 11247.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Sellers will try to prevent the pair from rising above the resistance of 1.1324, and the formation of a false breakout there will be a signal to sell the euro with a trend to break through and consolidate below the support of 1.1294, which will lead to forming a new downward wave and an update of the week lows in the area of 1.1269 and 1.1247, where I recommend taking profits. If the IFO reports are better than expected, short positions in EUR/USD can only be considered for a rebound from resistances of 1.1258 and 1.1388.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below the 30-day and 50-day moving average, which indicates the formation of a bearish trend in the market, and failure to consolidate above the moving average in the first half of the day will be a signal to sell the euro.

Bollinger bands

The euro's growth is limited by the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.1315, while the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1280 may limit the downward correction.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
Forex analysis 25 Mar 2019, 07:44 UTC+00
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