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1 GBP/USD. "Single-tasking" Boris Johnson. Part two.
All this led Britain to the first place in Europe in the number of deaths from COVID-2019, and Boris Johnson and his...
All this led Britain to the first place in Europe in the number of deaths from COVID-2019, and Boris Johnson and his government – to the minimum approval ratings. According to YouGov, which is famous for its statistics and social research, as well as the accuracy of their results, support for the Prime Minister and the government has fallen from 70% to 30% over the past six months. Now the second "wave" of the pandemic has begun. In other words, we can expect a new drop-in British...

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All this led Britain to the first place in Europe in the number of deaths from COVID-2019, and Boris Johnson and his government – to the minimum approval ratings. According to YouGov, which is famous for its statistics and social research, as well as the accuracy of their results, support for the Prime Minister and the government has fallen from 70% to 30% over the past six months. Now the second "wave" of the pandemic has begun. In other words, we can expect a new drop-in British confidence in the government since the number of cases in the country "caught up" with the maximum values of spring. On September 23, 6,187 cases were recorded in the UK, which is the absolute maximum. However, this is only the beginning of the second wave. British tabloids counted about 10 situations when Boris Johnson simply disappeared from view during difficult and crisis moments. Further, this is not our opinion. This is the opinion of British journalists. Thus, Johnson's main trump card remained Brexit, which was still moving towards its logical conclusion.

Johnson was also defeated on this issue. All his attempts to show "strength and stubbornness" did not have any impact on the European Union. Johnson probably thought that if he stood his ground as a statue carved out of stone, Brussels would start to give way. However, Michel Barnier and other top EU officials have repeatedly said that it is London that needs a deal in the first place. In general, the European Union did not make any concessions. Johnson went all-in and submitted a bill that allows violation of agreements with the EU on the Northern Ireland border. His party members immediately approved it (in the second reading and sent it for revision) and no one else in the world or the UK approved this bill except for Johnson's party members. Five former Prime Ministers of the Kingdom criticized any initiatives of Johnson, which may cast a shadow on the reputation of the UK. Also, Johnson does not care what Tony Blair or Theresa May thinks. He has all the power in Britain in his hands, thus, he can do what he wants.

Let us briefly recall the essence of the agreement between London and Brussels on the border on the island of Ireland. The parties agreed at the end of last year that Northern Ireland would effectively remain inside the European single market and comply with EU rules. The customs border between Ireland and Northern Ireland will run in the Irish sea rather than by land, avoiding a hard land border that was impossible to allow due to the Belfast Agreement of 1998, which ended 30 years of the bloody war that involved Ireland, Northern Ireland, and England. Boris Johnson's new bill proposes to cancel certain points of the agreement on Northern Ireland under a fictitious and hastily invented pretext and allow Parliament to make any decisions regarding the regime between Ireland and Northern Ireland. The pretext seems to have been invented within a very short period, as it sounds like this: "To prevent a food blockade by the European Union." In the same way, Johnson can rewrite any agreement with any country. For example, referring to intelligence, Luxembourg is preparing a military invasion of the territory of Great Britain, thus, all contracts are broken with it. It is very convenient, guided by pseudo-national interests, to act in their interests. However, this idea of Johnson is doomed to failure. We have repeatedly asked the question, how is it that 66-million-strong Britain puts forward ultimatums and sets conditions for the European Union, which has the second or third most powerful economy in the world? More than 50% of UK exports go to the European Union. In other words, it is Britain that needs an agreement with the EU, not the other way around. And the British tabloids, meanwhile, even began to write sarcastically that Boris Johnson managed the impossible – to unite five former Prime Ministers at once, who together criticized the "Johnson bill".

From America, Johnson also receives only bad news. First, Donald Trump's compliments to the British Prime Minister have abruptly decreased recently. Second, there has been a sharp decline in the talk of negotiating a trade deal. It is understandable since Trump is preparing for the election and is only busy figuring out how to increase his political ratings. But more calm Democrats have already warned Johnson that breaking the Brexit agreement with the EU will put an end to future negotiations with America. This was stated by both Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi.

As a result, the final decision on the bill will be made by the Parliament, not the government, and the British media immediately began to ask the question: "Will there be any justification for London if China approves the intention to tear up the British-Hong Kong Declaration at the People's Congress?" It should be recalled that relations with China in Britain also did not work out from the very first day of Johnson at the helm of the country. At first, he and some other top officials of the country said that "now they don't know how to do business with China" (because of the "coronavirus" pandemic). Then Boris Johnson (as many believe, under the patronage of Washington) refused the Chinese company Huawei to develop 5G networks in the UK, although initially this company was entrusted with the development. And then there was the resonant law "on the internal security of Hong Kong", which canceled the autonomy of this city, which is spelled out in the British-Chinese agreement.

The apotheosis of the absurd was the statement of the British government about reaching a trade agreement with Japan, which is estimated at an "unrealistic" 15 billion pounds. This is about 0.1% of GDP. Recall that the membership fee from the EU Treasury from the UK was 70 billion a year. After that, it became known that London removed many of the trade barriers that were in effect against many other countries in the world to encourage exports and imports after Brexit. However, all these actions are still regarded as a trade agreement with Uganda for the supply of two tons of sand.

In general, Boris Johnson and Donald Trump are leading their countries into the abyss. Instead of the mass of declared improvements, both countries are rapidly and confidently moving on a downward path. Trump may lose his post in January. Will British MPs wait for the end of Boris Johnson's Premiership?

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Recommendations for the GBP/USD pair:

The pound/dollar pair continues its downward movement. In the 24-hour timeframe, traders managed to lower the pair to the area of the Senkou Span B line and even overcome the Ichimoku cloud. However, the further movement of the pound depends entirely on the fundamental background of the UK. Overcoming the support level of 1.2683 will increase the likelihood of further movement to the south. But do not forget that the fundamental background in the United States is also far from the most optimistic. Therefore, the US dollar may again begin to fall in price.

Forex analysis 26 Sep 2020, 16:03 UTC+00
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2 GBP/USD. "Single-tasking" Boris Johnson. Part one
The media and periodicals are very fond of talking about Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister of Great Britain. As early...
The media and periodicals are very fond of talking about Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister of Great Britain. As early as the very first day of his reign, Boris Johnson showed a surprising resemblance to his American counterpart, Donald Trump. Johnson looks a bit like Trump (though he is younger than the American President), and behaves in a similar way in the political arena. Namely, it simply expels all those who do not want to obey him and his opinion, and in the international arena –...

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The media and periodicals are very fond of talking about Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister of Great Britain. As early as the very first day of his reign, Boris Johnson showed a surprising resemblance to his American counterpart, Donald Trump. Johnson looks a bit like Trump (though he is younger than the American President), and behaves in a similar way in the political arena. Namely, it simply expels all those who do not want to obey him and his opinion, and in the international arena – conducts negotiations from a position of strength. Trump and Johnson have repeatedly called each other "friends". We have never heard Trump refer to any other world leader as a friend. He admired Xi Jinping, paid tribute to Vladimir Putin, calling him a "smart and strong leader", however, he did not call anyone "friend" except Johnson. The same goes for the British Prime Minister. We are interested in the most significant and odious figures of modern politics. Trump spent his entire presidential term walking on a knife's edge. The number of times he was impeached was probably not the total number of presidents in the entire history of the United States. He repeatedly "got involved" in scandals, made scandalous statements and generally looked more like a "ringleader" at some rally, rather than the president of a country with the strongest economy in the world. We have already listed the results of his 4 years of rule many times, and there are very few positive things and moments among them.

Boris Johnson is another matter. He still behaves a little more modestly, however, he still tries to match his American counterpart. We can only guess who told Johnson that this manner of doing business is a winning one. Johnson has been Prime Minister for over a year, and he also has nothing to brag about. Moreover, like his "friend", he also completely failed the fight against the "coronavirus" that caused a storm of indignation in the UK. Of the merits, Johnson can only be credited with completing the Brexit epic. However, how and at what cost? The price of the British, who chose Johnson as head of government (and, unfortunately, those who did not), will find out very soon. Namely, in 2021, Britain will start trading with the European Union under the rules and regulations of the WTO. Although it can also be said that the British have been paying the price for Brexit for four years. They just started paying more under Boris Johnson. The British Prime Minister not only failed to reach an agreement with the European Union on a free trade agreement, but also intends to completely spoil relations with the alliance, which will put an end to any future negotiations, as well as greatly damage the UK's reputation in the international arena. Why is Johnson better than the same Theresa May, who resigned because parliament refused to approve her agreement with Brussels three times? May at least tried to negotiate. Johnson, from the first day of his rule, simply stated that there would be a "hard" Brexit and has been on this path for more than a year, sometimes pretending that he wants to negotiate with the Europeans. We would venture to assume that there was talk of a "divorce" with the EU soon, the majority of Britons still meant a civilized "divorce", after which they and the Europeans will remain in good relations and will be able to peacefully and mutually beneficial co-exist in the future. But 2020 shows that this option is unlikely. In addition, Johnson also failed to agree on a trade deal with the United States, however, his friend Donald Trump may leave his post in January 2021 and then have to negotiate with Joe Biden, who highly honors the Belfast Agreement of 1998 and condemns London's potential violation of agreements with the European Union concerning Northern Ireland.

However, let's look at the whole situation and what it can lead to from the very beginning. Recently, the British tabloids began to mercilessly and sarcastically criticize the British Prime Minister. The reason is banal and simple. In the UK, the second "wave" of the COVID-2019 epidemic began. As Boris Johnson himself stated. "Boris Johnson is moping", "Boris Johnson is confused", "Johnson lets Britain drift to another lockdown" - these are the newspaper headlines of the last week. Many British media outlets now have started calling Johnson's election victory exclusively "Brexit". We've been talking about this for the past year. This name suggests that the British in December last year in the parliamentary elections did not vote for Johnson and the conservatives, but for the early completion of Brexit. This is the only factor that brought Johnson to the Prime Minister's seat and the only factor that gave him the opportunity to form a "majority government". Naturally, Johnson bloomed like a "peony in hot June", making pretentious statements that "the era of Britain will soon come". At that time, Johnson seemed to strongly believe that he could conclude trade agreements with all countries of the world, without looking at Brussels, that with America and Donald Trump, he would be able to conclude an agreement that would completely offset the losses from leaving the European Union. Serious cooperation with China was also planned, plus we should not forget that London is still one of the main financial centers of the world, although until recently it was the largest. Thus, the prospects of Boris Johnson painted a very rosy picture. However, almost all of Johnson's global plans collapsed in the first year of his Premiership, and the further Johnson leads the country, the more fears appear for this country.

Of course, Johnson and the company were seriously "confused" by the "coronavirus". However, it confused the maps of many countries of the world and almost all EU countries left the first "wave" with GDP losses of less than 20%, unlike Britain. Also in the midst of the first "wave", it turned out that London sold medical supplies to China at the beginning of the year, and then faced a shortage of these medical supplies. It also later became clear that many stocks of protective equipment and medicines in British warehouses have long expired and are not suitable for use. All this led Britain to the first place in Europe in terms of the number of deaths from COVID-2019.

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Recommendations for the GBP/USD pair:

The pound/dollar pair continues its downward movement. In the 24-hour timeframe, traders managed to lower the pair to the area of the Senkou Span B line and even overcome the Ichimoku cloud. However, the further movement of the pound depends entirely on the fundamental background from the UK. Overcoming the support level of 1.2683 will increase the likelihood of further movement to the South. However, do not forget that the fundamental background in the United States is also far from the most optimistic. Therefore, the US dollar may again begin to fall in price.

Forex analysis 26 Sep 2020, 16:03 UTC+00
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3 Technical analysis of EUR/USD and GBP/USD for September 25
EUR/USD Yesterday, the euro broke the daily low, but a decline slowed down by the end of the day which makes an...
EUR/USD Yesterday, the euro broke the daily low, but a decline slowed down by the end of the day which makes an upward correction possible. Under the current conditions, the key target levels for bulls lies in the area of 1.1740-64 indicated by the daily Tenkan-Sen+the upper boundary of the daily cloud+the lower boundary of the monthly cloud. Another key area is 1.1820-30 as defined by daily Kijun and the daily Tenkan-Sen. In case the price continues sliding, the support levels for...

EUR/USD

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Yesterday, the euro broke the daily low, but a decline slowed down by the end of the day which makes an upward correction possible. Under the current conditions, the key target levels for bulls lies in the area of 1.1740-64 indicated by the daily Tenkan-Sen+the upper boundary of the daily cloud+the lower boundary of the monthly cloud. Another key area is 1.1820-30 as defined by daily Kijun and the daily Tenkan-Sen. In case the price continues sliding, the support levels for euro can be found at 1.1567 (the lower boundary of the daily cloud), 1.1521 (weekly Fibo/Kijun), and 1.1486 (monthly Fibo/Kijun).

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According to smaller time frames, the EUR/USD pair is in the correction zone. It seems that market players intend to push the price above the central pivot point at 1.1660. The key target of the current correction is 1.1733 while intermediate resistance levels can be found at 1.1694 (R1) and 1.1721 (R2). Bulls have managed to break above 1.1733, reverse the moving average and overcome the resistance levels of bigger time frames (1.1740-64). Next, they are most likely to try to gain control on smaller time frames. At the same time, if the upward correction comes to an end, and the price declines below 1.1626, the downward targets will lie at 1.1599 (S2) and 1.1572 (S3).

GBP/USD

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The GBP/USD pair continued fluctuating near the support area 1.2111-77 (weekly Kijun + monthly Fibo/Kijun + the lower boundary of the daily cloud). Today is the last day of this trading week. The results of this day can help us forecast the future price movements, in particular, whether the price will break out of the lower boundary of the daily cloud and weekly short-term trend will reverse. The nearest target levels for the upward correction are the daily Tenkan-Sen (1.2840) and weekly Fibo/Kijun (1.2943). In case the downward trend recovers, bears will try to liquidate the Golden Cross the last border of which is the support at 1.2612.

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At the same time, bulls aim to gain control on smaller time frames in the course of an upward correction. The key upside targets are located at 1.2737 (the central pivot point) and 1.2796 (weekly trend). If the price breaks above these levels and the moving average reverses, the balance of power on smaller time frames will change, so we will shift our attention to the bigger time frames. The resistance levels are located at 1.2828 (R2) and 1.2877 (R3). If the pair fails to break the central point at 1.2737 and an upward trend with the target at 1.2674 recovers, the support levels at 1.2646 (S2) and 1.2604 (S3) will become valid again.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (classic), Moving Avarage (120)

Forex analysis 25 Sep 2020, 17:21 UTC+00
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4 Analysis of Gold for September 25,.2020 - Projected downside target of the broken symmetrical triangle is set at $1.818
Madrid just announced that they are raising the number of areas under lock down to 45 from 37 moments ago, adding...
The Spanish government recommends Madrid to extend lockdown restrictions to all parts of the region Madrid just announced that they are raising the number of areas under lock down to 45 from 37 moments ago, adding that about 1 million people in the region are reported to be in lockdown based on the latest restrictions. But Spain's health minister has come out to say that the region should go into total lock-down instead to curb the spread of the virus outbreak. For some context,...

The Spanish government recommends Madrid to extend lockdown restrictions to all parts of the region

Madrid just announced that they are raising the number of areas under lock down to 45 from 37 moments ago, adding that about 1 million people in the region are reported to be in lockdown based on the latest restrictions.

But Spain's health minister has come out to say that the region should go into total lock-down instead to curb the spread of the virus outbreak.

For some context, Madrid has a population of roughly 6.6 million but the concern is that the hospitalization capacity is starting to see another drastic increase recently with nearly 500 patients hospitalized per day in the past week.

Spain reported 10,600 new virus cases yesterday as the virus situation in Europe continues to see more negative developments with France reporting a record daily number of infections yesterday and Germany seeing its highest daily increase since April.

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As I discussed in the previous review, the Gold is still in the strong downward cycle and I see no evidence of any reversal yet.

Further Development

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Analyzing the current trading chart of Gold, I found that sellers are still in control and that Gold might trade to my projected target at the price of $1,818.

My advice is still to watch for selling opportunities with the target at $1,818

1-Day relative strength performance Finviz

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Based on the graph above I found that on the top of the list we got Sugar and Live Cattle today and on the bottom Lumber and Lean Hogs.

Key Levels:

Resistance: $1,863

Support level and downside target: $1,818

Forex analysis 25 Sep 2020, 12:58 UTC+00
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5 EUR/USD analysis for September 25 2020 - Sellers stil in control with potential for the test of 1.1545
Prior was +11.4% (revised to +11.7%) Durables ex transportation +0.4% vs +1.0% expected Prior ex transportation +2.6%...
US durable goods orders for August Prior was +11.4% (revised to +11.7%) Durables ex transportation +0.4% vs +1.0% expected Prior ex transportation +2.6% (revised to +3.2%) Capital goods orders non-defense ex-air +1.8% vs +1.0% expected Prior capital goods orders non-defense ex-air +1.9% (revised to +2.5%) Capital goods shipments non-defense ex-air +1.5% vs +0.8% expected Prior capital goods shipments non-defense ex-air +2.4% (revised to +2.8%) As I discussed in the...

US durable goods orders for August

Prior was +11.4% (revised to +11.7%)

  • Durables ex transportation +0.4% vs +1.0% expected
  • Prior ex transportation +2.6% (revised to +3.2%)
  • Capital goods orders non-defense ex-air +1.8% vs +1.0% expected
  • Prior capital goods orders non-defense ex-air +1.9% (revised to +2.5%)
  • Capital goods shipments non-defense ex-air +1.5% vs +0.8% expected
  • Prior capital goods shipments non-defense ex-air +2.4% (revised to +2.8%)

As I discussed in the previous review, the EUR is still in the strong downward cycle and I see no evidence of any reversal yet.

Further Development

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Analyzing the current trading chart of EUR, I found that sellers are still in control and tat EUR managed to hit my yesterday's target at 1,1625. The next downside target is set at the price of 1,1545

Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the target at 1,1545. The main cause of the most recent drop on EUR was the breakout of the rounding top formation in the background.

My advice is still to watch for selling opportunities with the target at $1,818

1-Day relative strength performance Finviz

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Based on the graph above I found that on the top of the list we got Sugar and Live Cattle today and on the bottom Lumber and Lean Hogs.

EUR is on the negative territory....

Key Levels:

Resistance: 1,1690

Support level and downside target: 1,1545

Forex analysis 25 Sep 2020, 13:12 UTC+00
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6 BTC analysis for September 25,.2020 - Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the target at $10.145
Further Development Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that BTC traded again into the key resistance...
Further Development Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that BTC traded again into the key resistance pivot at the price of $10,800 but it found resistance. My advice is still to watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the target at $10,145. Only in case of the stronger breakout of resistance at $10,800 there is the chance for the test of $11,050, which is also strong resistance pivot. Key Levels: Resistance: $10,800 and $11,050 Support levels and...

Further Development

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Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that BTC traded again into the key resistance pivot at the price of $10,800 but it found resistance.

My advice is still to watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the target at $10,145.

Only in case of the stronger breakout of resistance at $10,800 there is the chance for the test of $11,050, which is also strong resistance pivot.

Key Levels:

Resistance: $10,800 and $11,050

Support levels and downside target: $10,140 and $9,820

Forex analysis 25 Sep 2020, 14:00 UTC+00
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7 Analysis of GBP/USD for September 25, 2020
In the most global terms, the construction of a new downward section of the trend continues. The continued decline in...
In the most global terms, the construction of a new downward section of the trend continues. The continued decline in quotes suggests the completion of the construction of wave 2 or b as part of this section, which, therefore, has taken a rather shortened form. A successful attempt to break through the minimum of the expected wave 1 or a allows us to conclude that the markets are ready for further sales of the GBP/USD. The chart clearly shows the drop in demand for the pound sterling in...

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In the most global terms, the construction of a new downward section of the trend continues. The continued decline in quotes suggests the completion of the construction of wave 2 or b as part of this section, which, therefore, has taken a rather shortened form. A successful attempt to break through the minimum of the expected wave 1 or a allows us to conclude that the markets are ready for further sales of the GBP/USD. The chart clearly shows the drop in demand for the pound sterling in recent weeks, which is caused by a whole list of different reasons and factors.

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Over the past trading day, the GBP/USD instrument gained several basis points. Thus, the construction of a new downward section of the trend continues within the expected wave 3 or C, since the minimum increase in the instrument cannot violate the current wave marking. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 61.8% suggests that the markets are ready for a small departure of quotes from the lows reached.

So far the pound has made a small success in its attempt to recover. According to the latest news from the UK, it is quite difficult to rely on a strong increase in the price of the pound sterling. At the same time, no currency can move in one direction all the time. The second correction wave turned out to be quite weak, so now there are actually quite a large number of options for further development of events. Thus, it is possible to conclude that the upward section of the trend is really complete. And the grounds are quite simple. Right now, UK goes not just at the edge of a precipice called "Brexit no bargain", but it already walks on the edge of a precipice called "the Quarrel with the EU."

Representatives of the European Union have already stated that the actions arranged by London are lawlessness, as well as weak attempts to intimidate. This simply means, no one in the European Union believed Boris Johnson and is not going to make concessions to him in the negotiations.

The official position of the EU is clearly seen in the comments of its representatives. If London wants to violate international law and the agreement with the EU, let it go. Brussels will go to court with this, impose sanctions on Britain, which will already be drained of blood by leaving the bloc, and may eventually start its own trade war.

It is unlikely that Europe will simply agree with Johnson's desire to violate the current agreement, and even such an important and principled one. For the European Union, Northern Ireland is a window that needs to be closed to avoid illegal movements of people from Britain to its territory, to avoid the flow of contraband in both directions. The mechanism stipulated in the agreement seems to satisfy both sides, but in the end, Boris Johnson is going to violate this agreement. Or at least he says he's going to.

General conclusions and recommendations:

The Pound-Dollar instrument presumably completed the construction of the upward trend section. At the same time, there is a high probability of building a correction wave 2 or b, which could also have already completed its construction near the level of 38.2%. An unsuccessful attempt to break this mark allows the markets to start selling the instrument with targets located around 1.2721 and 1.2539. Based on the construction of the third wave, this is equal to 61.8% and 76.4% Fibonacci.

Forex analysis 25 Sep 2020, 13:05 UTC+00
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8 EUR/USD: US dollar is not in a rush to dismiss doubts, leaving the euro under pressure
The USD index is trading near a two-month peak today, which was reached yesterday in the area of 94.6 points. As we...
The USD index is trading near a two-month peak today, which was reached yesterday in the area of 94.6 points. As we can see, the dollar is close to showing the best weekly performance in almost six months. James Bullard, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said that the US economy may fully recover by the end of 2020. However, his forecast looks overly optimistic, since there are only few now who believe that the Democrats and Republicans will compromise on the...

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The USD index is trading near a two-month peak today, which was reached yesterday in the area of 94.6 points. As we can see, the dollar is close to showing the best weekly performance in almost six months.

James Bullard, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said that the US economy may fully recover by the end of 2020. However, his forecast looks overly optimistic, since there are only few now who believe that the Democrats and Republicans will compromise on the agreement about a new economic stimulus package before the US presidential election.

According to State Street Bank experts, it is not yet clear whether another economic package will be adopted. At least no one expects the deal to be concluded before the elections, but the economy really needs some help by the end of the year, as recently announced by Feds' representatives.

Yesterday's released data showed that the number of Americans who filed new applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased last week. This signals that the US economic recovery is getting worn out.

Moreover, Goldman Sachs experts revised their forecast for US GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2020 — from 6% to 3%.

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This week, the USD index rose by 1.4%,but there are doubts whether US lawmakers will be able to overcome the differences to agree on another package of support for the national economy.

State Street Bank said that the dollar's rise and risk aversion may continue, since news in the United States is dominated by elections. At the same time, it is likely that political uncertainty will put pressure on the markets.

Nomura strategists also expect the dollar to strengthen in the short term and recommend selling the euro.

They said that there are several factors indicating that the dollar will continue to rise. The risk sentiment is deteriorating as the chances of US fiscal stimulus decline. In addition, it is not yet clear whether the market has fully considered the threat of the second wave of COVID-19.

So technically, breaking through below 1.1700 seems to signal the end of the upward trend of EUR/USD. Thus, they advise to sell the main currency pair with the target at 1.1400 and the stop at 1.1850.

In turn, analysts at JPMorgan note that while the EUR/USD pair remains below the level of 1.1700, the path of least resistance for it looks like a movement to new lows, and the nearest target is the level of 1.1500.

Meanwhile, Danske Bank expects that the pressure on the single European currency is unlikely to disappear until the end of this year.

"The euro is unable to receive support from the recent change in the Fed's approach to the inflation target. At the same time, a new wave of restrictions due to the increase in cases of coronavirus infection in the EU can undermine the economic growth of the region," Bank experts said.

So, they forecast that the EUR/USD pair will trade within the levels of 1.1500-1.1900 by the end of the year.

News 25 Sep 2020, 12:20 UTC+00
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9 EUR/USD analysis on September 25. Donald Trump got jeered on by the crowd while visiting the funeral of Judge Ruth Ginsburg
The wave marking of the EUR/USD instrument in global terms still looks quite convincing in everything that concerns...
The wave marking of the EUR/USD instrument in global terms still looks quite convincing in everything that concerns the upward section of the trend, which presumably ended with wave 3 on the first of September. After this day, the construction of the proposed wave 4 began, which at first took a three-wave form, but the decline in quotes this week led to a complication of the internal structure of this wave. Thus, the entire wave that begins on September 1 takes on a more complex and...

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The wave marking of the EUR/USD instrument in global terms still looks quite convincing in everything that concerns the upward section of the trend, which presumably ended with wave 3 on the first of September. After this day, the construction of the proposed wave 4 began, which at first took a three-wave form, but the decline in quotes this week led to a complication of the internal structure of this wave. Thus, the entire wave that begins on September 1 takes on a more complex and extended form and may even be not wave 4, but the first wave as part of a new downward trend section.

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The wave marking of a smaller scale shows that two smaller waves have already been built inside the assumed wave 4, while the assumed wave 3 or C in 4 is currently being built, within which smaller-scale waves are also being viewed. The entire downward wave, which began its construction on September 1, is unlike an impulse wave. If this assumption is correct, then we are now seeing the construction of wave 4, which takes a complex and extended form. A successful attempt to break through the level of 23.6% suggests that the instrument is ready for further decline.

The movements of the Euro/Dollar instrument this week fully corresponded to the current wave marking. Despite the fact that there were quite a lot of important events this week, there was not enough important information. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke to various congressional committees three times during the week. However, their performances only led to a weak increase in the US dollar. It is not even certain that these speeches could have caused the growth of the US currency. As mentioned before, the wave marking, even without the speeches, suggested a decrease in the instrument's quotes.

America does not have any other news at the moment. Markets are still very much interested in two topics. The first - the coronavirus - has faded into the background as the epidemiological situation improved slightly in recent weeks. However, this opinion is ambiguous since 40,000 new cases of infection are recorded daily. On the contrary to this, what came to the fore is the second topic - the upcoming presidential election case. The last important information says that the case may reach the US Supreme Court, as either Donald trump or Joe Biden may not recognize the election results. Trump opposes voting by mail, while Biden believes that his opponent will try to rig the election. In general, it is very probable that the case will have to go to court, in which one of the judges, Ruth Ginsburg, who was not a fan of Trump and opposed him, recently died at the age of 87. Now, Donald is going to replace her with a new candidate before the election, and experts say that in this case, as many as six of the nine judges will be appointed by Republican presidents. Therefore, if the election case does go to court, it is Trump who can count on a decision in his favor.

General conclusions and recommendations:

The Euro-Dollar pair presumably completed the construction of the global wave 3 or C and the second corrective wave as part of the trend section that begins on September 1. Thus, at this time, It is still recommended to sell the instrument with targets located near the estimated 1.1520 mark, corresponding 38.2% Fibonacci, for each MACD signal down.

Forex analysis 25 Sep 2020, 13:01 UTC+00
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10 US oil producers do not care about future
The coronavirus pandemic has forced many countries to cut production. However, American oil producers think only...
The coronavirus pandemic has forced many countries to cut production. However, American oil producers think only about their own profit. It seems that they are not interested in the world market situation. Despite the forced reduction in oil output, massive layoffs, and a series of bankruptcies, they still prefer to maintain and increase production, rather than cutting costs and obligations to creditors. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas made an analysis, according to which 16% of oil...

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The coronavirus pandemic has forced many countries to cut production. However, American oil producers think only about their own profit. It seems that they are not interested in the world market situation. Despite the forced reduction in oil output, massive layoffs, and a series of bankruptcies, they still prefer to maintain and increase production, rather than cutting costs and obligations to creditors.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas made an analysis, according to which 16% of oil executives intend to reduce debt. Another 16% intend to increase production, while 19% prefer to keep production at current levels.

Meanwhile, 32 companies have filed for bankruptcy since the beginning of the year, including Whiting Petroleum and Chesapeake Energy. In total, the company owed $49.7 billion, including $29 billion in unsecured debt.

Also, 66% of analysis's participants believe that the US oil market has peaked and will never reach the levels of early 2020 when the oil output exceeded 13 million barrels per day. Moreover, American oil workers fear the US presidential election. They believe that Biden's policies will deal a further blow to their sphere.

In other words, the leaders of oil companies prefer to live in the present day, as there is no hope for a bright future. The main thing for them is to sell as much oil as possible while there is such an opportunity. And when the money runs out, they will declare themselves bankrupt. As simple as that.

In the meantime, oil prices are rising as investors hope for a recovery in demand. Earlier this week, the US Department of Energy reported a decrease in oil reserves in the country for the past week. Investors also hope that the second wave of coronavirus will not do as much damage as the first did.

Brent oil futures for November rose by 0.55% to trade at $42.17 per barrel, while November futures for WTI grew by 0.6% to settle at $40.55 per barrel.

However, prices may fall amid risks around the coronavirus and the resumption of oil production in Libya, which could lead to an oversupply. However, Iraq intends to reduce production as part of the OPEC+ deal. In other words, the market situation will not change. This has an impact on oil prices, Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA, said.

News 25 Sep 2020, 12:17 UTC+00
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