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1 Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for October 18. Dollar strengthening continues
The bearish divergence of the MACD indicator allowed the pair to eventually fall to the correction level of 61.8% -...
4h The bearish divergence of the MACD indicator allowed the pair to eventually fall to the correction level of 61.8% - 1.1497. Reversing the quotations from the Fibo level of 61.8% will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the European currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 50.0% - 1.1558. There is no one indicator of the emerging divergences today. Fixing the pair below the Fibo level of 61.8% will increase the chances for a further fall in the...

4h

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The bearish divergence of the MACD indicator allowed the pair to eventually fall to the correction level of 61.8% - 1.1497. Reversing the quotations from the Fibo level of 61.8% will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the European currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 50.0% - 1.1558. There is no one indicator of the emerging divergences today. Fixing the pair below the Fibo level of 61.8% will increase the chances for a further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 76.4% - 1.1424.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 24, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the US currency and began the process of falling in the direction of the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.1285. Over the current chart, no indicator has maturing divergences. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 100.0% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the EU currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1789 is expected.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair can be opened with the target of 1.1558 and a Stop Loss order under the Fibo level of 61.8% if the pair bounces off of the 1.1497 correction level.

Sales of the EUR / USD currency pair can be carried out with the target of 1.1424 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 61.8% if the pair closes below the correction level of 1.1497.

Forex analysis 18 Oct 2018, 09:33 UTC+00
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2 Control zones of GBP/USD pair 10/18/18
Yesterday, a reversal pattern was formed, which indicates a change of priority to a downward one. Any increase in...
Yesterday, a reversal pattern was formed, which indicates a change of priority to a downward one. Any increase in today's European and American sessions will be corrective. The a control zone was broken yesterday, the lower limit of which is located at the level of 1.3126. The closure of the American session was below this mark, which allows us to consider selling the instrument in any upward movement. The level of 1.3126 will be the first resistance in the way of growth, and its test can...

Yesterday, a reversal pattern was formed, which indicates a change of priority to a downward one. Any increase in today's European and American sessions will be corrective.

The a control zone was broken yesterday, the lower limit of which is located at the level of 1.3126. The closure of the American session was below this mark, which allows us to consider selling the instrument in any upward movement. The level of 1.3126 will be the first resistance in the way of growth, and its test can be used to search for favorable prices for sale.

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The first goal of the downward movement will be the weekly control zone, where the lower limit of which is at the level of 1.2995. Reaching this zone requires closing a part of the position for sale, as the likelihood of demand increases. The rest can be transferred to breakeven.

To cancel the bearish impulse, it is necessary to absorb yesterday's fall and close trades at the previous day's high. The probability of the formation of this model is 30%, which makes it auxiliary. In the case of having a long position from last week or the week before last, it is better to completely eliminate it and consider selling options.

Forex analysis 18 Oct 2018, 11:33 UTC+00
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3 GBP / USD: plan for the American session on October 18. The lack of a solution for Brexit puts pressure on the pound
There is no news on Brexit and, accordingly, there is no large buyer either, which did not allow us to consolidate...
To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need: There is no news on Brexit and, accordingly, there is no large buyer either, which did not allow us to consolidate above 1.3119 in the first half of the day. At the moment, it is best to rely on pound purchases after the formation of a false breakdown at the low of the day at 1.3075 or open long positions after updating the weekly support at 1.3032. The main task for the second half of the day will be the return and consolidation above the...

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

There is no news on Brexit and, accordingly, there is no large buyer either, which did not allow us to consolidate above 1.3119 in the first half of the day. At the moment, it is best to rely on pound purchases after the formation of a false breakdown at the low of the day at 1.3075 or open long positions after updating the weekly support at 1.3032. The main task for the second half of the day will be the return and consolidation above the resistance of 1.3119, from where the maximum of 1.3152 and 1.3186, where I recommend fixing the profit.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

As long as trading is conducted below the resistance level of 1.3119, the pressure on the pound will continue. The main goal of the sellers remains at least this week 1.3075, a breakthrough of which will lead to a larger sale of GBP / USD with a minimum of 1.3032 and 1.2982, where I recommend fixing the profits. At any time, the results of the next Brexit negotiations can be published, so that we do not forget to place stop orders, since the volatility of the pound may increase significantly. In the case of an upward correction to short positions, you can again return to the false breakdown from the resistance of 1.3152 or to the rebound from 1.3186.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

The pair has fixed below the moving average, which indicates the formation of a downtrend.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3078 will lead to the sale of a pound. The upper limit around 1.3134 today stands in the form of resistance.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
Forex analysis 18 Oct 2018, 10:30 UTC+00
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4 Fractal analysis of Gold, Silver, and Oil for October 18
According to Silver, we expect further development of the upward trend from October 11 after the breakdown of 14.73....
Analytical review of Gold, Silver, and Oil According to Silver, we expect further development of the upward trend from October 11 after the breakdown of 14.73. At the moment, the price is in the zone of initial conditions. According to Gold, we are following the development of the ascending structure of September 28 and we expect further uptrend after the breakdown of 1228.50. According to oil, we continue to monitor the downward structure of October 3 and the subsequent movement downwards...

Analytical review of Gold, Silver, and Oil

According to Silver, we expect further development of the upward trend from October 11 after the breakdown of 14.73. At the moment, the price is in the zone of initial conditions. According to Gold, we are following the development of the ascending structure of September 28 and we expect further uptrend after the breakdown of 1228.50. According to oil, we continue to monitor the downward structure of October 3 and the subsequent movement downwards is expected after the breakdown of 69.50.

Forecast for October 18:

Analytical review on the scale of H1:

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According to Silver, the main key levels on the H1 scale are: 15.13, 14.98, 14.88, 14.73, 14.58, 14.49, 14.43 and 14.34. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of October 11. The continuation of the movement upward is expected after the breakdown of 14.73. In this case, the target is 14.88 and the breakdown of which will allow us to count on the movement towards 14.98, consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 15.13, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

We expect a departure in the correction after the breakdown of 14.58. In this case, the target is 14.49 and the range of 14.49 - 14.43 is the key support for the top. Its price will have to form the initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the target is 14.34.

The main trend is the upward structure of October 11.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 14.74 Take profit: 14.87

Buy: 14.89 Take profit: 14.97

Sell: 14.58 Take profit: 14.50

Sell: 14.42 Take profit: 14.36

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According to Gold, the main key levels on the H1 scale are: 1245.82, 1235.96, 1228.48, 1224.37, 1213.81, 1208.96 and 1201.07. Here, we are following the development of the ascending cycle of September 28. The movement upwards is expected after the price passes the range of 1224.37 - 1228.48. In this case, the target is 1235.96 and consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1245.82, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1213.81 - 1208.96 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1201.07.

The main trend is the upward cycle of September 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1228.50 Take profit: 1235.00

Buy: 1237.00 Take profit: 1245.00

Sell: 1213.50 Take profit: 1209.50

Sell: 1208.00 Take profit: 1202.00

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According to #Cl, the main key levels on the H1 scale are: 72.92, 71.84, 71.16, 70.60, 69.52, 68.66, 68.22 and 67.13. Here, we are following the downward structure of October 3rd. The downward movement is expected after breakdown of 69.52. In this case, the goal is 68.66 and in the range of 68.66 - 68.22 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 67.13, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 70.60 - 71.16 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 71.84 and this level is the key support for the downward structure. Its price passage will have to form the initial conditions for the top. In this case, the potential target is 72.92.

The main trend is the downward structure of October 3, the stage of correction.

The tool serves to determine the key trend. Its confirmation or cancellation by GOLD. Often has the opposite correlation with GOLD.

Forex analysis 18 Oct 2018, 09:32 UTC+00
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5 Control zones of EUR/USD pair 10/18/18
Yesterday the reversal pattern was formed. The American session closed below the a control zone.
Yesterday the reversal pattern was formed. The American session closed below the a control zone. It has been completed. This became possible after yesterday's US session closed below the a control zone. Anyone today will be a correction for profitable valuable instruments for sale. Returning to yesterday's support will be the first resistance to growth. The target zone is the weekly control zone. The lower limit of which is located at the level of 1.1428. Achievement of this zone will...

Yesterday the reversal pattern was formed. The American session closed below the a control zone.

It has been completed. This became possible after yesterday's US session closed below the a control zone. Anyone today will be a correction for profitable valuable instruments for sale. Returning to yesterday's support will be the first resistance to growth.

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The target zone is the weekly control zone. The lower limit of which is located at the level of 1.1428. Achievement of this zone will allow fixing a part of sales and transfer the rest to breakeven.

To cancel the descending pattern, it will be necessary to take over yesterday's fall and close the American session above the level of 1.1550. This will give up a short position and consider purchases tomorrow. The best deals are sales, however, a small correctional growth is required to get better prices. The ratio of risk to profit from sales from current levels will be unprofitable.

Forex analysis 18 Oct 2018, 11:24 UTC+00
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6 How will the dollar show itself in the foreseeable future?
Since the summer of this year, volatility has been reduced in the global currency market. In the main pairs, mostly...
Since the summer of this year, volatility has been reduced in the global currency market. In the main pairs, mostly quiet, oscillations closed in a narrow range. At the same time, the currency in recent months has pretty shocked. The currency pair EUR / USD has practically grown in the range of 1.14 - 1.17, but if you pay attention to the dollar index, the picture is clearer. Currently, the indicator is located around 95.5 points. The solid support is 94, and the critical resistance level...

Since the summer of this year, volatility has been reduced in the global currency market. In the main pairs, mostly quiet, oscillations closed in a narrow range. At the same time, the currency in recent months has pretty shocked.

The currency pair EUR / USD has practically grown in the range of 1.14 - 1.17, but if you pay attention to the dollar index, the picture is clearer. Currently, the indicator is located around 95.5 points. The solid support is 94, and the critical resistance level is in the range of 96.2 - 96.3. In the event of a breakthrough of this barrier, the American dollar can dial up to 4% and fly to a value of 100 points.

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From a technical point of view, everything is clear, in general, as with the fundamental. Now, the reason for the growth of the euro in the summer is clear. The Bank of Russia could make a definite contribution here. As noted in Goldman Sachs, there are indicators of the fact that the Central Bank converted dollars from US government bonds into Euros and placed them in different papers of the eurozone countries. Perhaps, this can explain the fact that the classic carry trade from euro to dollar did not work, despite the significant difference in rates by almost 300 basis points.

Then the situation changed, after the last increase in the US refinancing rate, yields on US government bonds skyrocketed. Even the "three-year-olds" exceeded 3%. Risks in global markets have increased significantly, investors rushed to dump shares. The process can still be controlled, and market participants are trying to buy dips. The VIX has grown, but there are no transcendental heights, there is a gradual upward movement.

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However, the situation can quickly get out of control. Published on Wednesday, the minutes of the September Fed meeting showed the absolute unanimity of officials in an effort to raise the rate gradually. They also hinted at the possibility of leaving the rate above the neutral level. In December, the Fed will again tighten the policy. This is almost one hundred percent guarantee. Thus, yields on the US Treasury debt market will increase.

According to JP Morgan, when the yield on 10-year securities increases to 3.4%, large institutional investors will have no sense in shares and they will be transferred to bonds.

So, in the near future, dips will become more frequent on the stock markets, and panic may come one day. In this scenario, the dollar has all the chances to rise significantly.

It doesn't matter who treats the US currency and what forecasts give, but it remains central to the calculations for various contracts. In the days of stress in the markets, the demand for the dollar increases, the risks are to its advantage.

Euro

In 2019, the euro should rise as the ECB will begin to raise rates.

The CIBC is advised to open a short position in the EUR / SEK pair at a break below 10.28, and also in the EUR / NOK pair at a break below 9.38. As for EUR / USD, the bank has to admit that the pair will decline. Experts urge euro buyers to be patient.

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The reasons for the decline of the euro are the following:

  • Next week, Italy's draft budget is likely to be rejected. The budget, which will fit into EU regulations, is unlikely to receive approval in the Italian parliament before the end of the year.
  • Forcing the euro to "defend" can "bad result of support" of Angela Merkel and her party in the upcoming state elections in Germany.
  • The quantitative easing program of the ECB ends in January. The regulator is "concerned about the consequences of lower liquidity and the consequences for assets," according to the bank.
News 18 Oct 2018, 13:15 UTC+00
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7 GBP/USD. 18 October. Results of the day. EU leaders canceled the summit on Brexit, scheduled for November.
The British pound on Thursday, October 18, fell to the lower limit of the Ichimoku cloud, but could not overcome it...
4-hour timeframe The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 66 p-111 p-98 p-95 p-93 p. The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 93 p (90 p). The British pound on Thursday, October 18, fell to the lower limit of the Ichimoku cloud, but could not overcome it on the first attempt. However, at the moment it seems that this is only a temporary stop. By all indications, talks on Brexit failed, a new round of negotiations was canceled by EU leaders. Thus, the probability that the UK...

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 66 p-111 p-98 p-95 p-93 p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 93 p (90 p).

The British pound on Thursday, October 18, fell to the lower limit of the Ichimoku cloud, but could not overcome it on the first attempt. However, at the moment it seems that this is only a temporary stop. By all indications, talks on Brexit failed, a new round of negotiations was canceled by EU leaders. Thus, the probability that the UK will leave the EU without any agreements is growing. But this is not the main thing now. The question is what will Theresa May do, who is at a certain crossroads. On the one hand, the lack of a "deal" with the EU is a serious blow to her image and political rating. In particular, Boris Johnson has already hinted that he is ready to accept the post of prime minister. On the other hand, to conclude a "deal" with the EU means to make new concessions, which the British Parliament will not understand and, most likely, will not support the vote. Thus, the current prospects of the pound sterling are again extremely weak. If we add to this the weak report released today on retail sales in the UK, the picture for the English currency becomes quite sad. On the technical side, further downward movement limits the Senkou Span B line, however, it seems that it will not stand under the onslaught of bears. If the price overcomes this line, the sell signal from Ichimoku will be strengthened, and the path will be open to the first support level of 1.3034.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair has tested the Senkou Span B line. If the price consolidates below it, then the sell-positions can be raised with the target of 1.3034. The reversal of the MACD indicator to the top, especially with the rebound from the Senkou Span B line, will signal an upward correction round.

Buy-positions can be considered again no earlier than the price fixing above the Kijun-Sen line. In this case, the trend will change to ascending, but in current conditions it is difficult to imagine what fundamental information will be able to support the pound.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

Forex analysis 18 Oct 2018, 22:19 UTC+00
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8 Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 19, 2018
The break below support at 1.7477 has forced us to review our count from the peak of red wave i/. The break below...
The break below support at 1.7477 has forced us to review our count from the peak of red wave i/. The break below 1.7477 indicates, that red wave ii/ still is in motion, but could just have completed or be very close to completion. The first good indication of a corrective low being in place, will be a break above resistance at 1.7557 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.7657. As long as resistance at 1.7557 stays untouched, we must accept the possibility of red wave ii/...

analytics5bc96b137e19b.png

The break below support at 1.7477 has forced us to review our count from the peak of red wave i/. The break below 1.7477 indicates, that red wave ii/ still is in motion, but could just have completed or be very close to completion. The first good indication of a corrective low being in place, will be a break above resistance at 1.7557 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.7657.

As long as resistance at 1.7557 stays untouched, we must accept the possibility of red wave ii/ moving a little lower towards 1.7357, but we think the potential downside is limited to here.

R3: 1.7598

R2: 1.7557

R1: 1.7493

Pivot: 1.7476

S1: 1.7455

S2: 1.7400

S3: 1.7357

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.7465 has been hit. We will only buy a break above 1.7557.

Forex analysis 19 Oct 2018, 03:29 UTC+00
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9 The dollar will rise, the euro will fall, and China avoided the title of currency manipulator of the year
The dollar has updated the weekly high, and the stock market fell amid signs that the Fed will continue to raise...
The dollar has updated the weekly high, and the stock market fell amid signs that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates until 2019. China's stock markets were hit hard. The stock base index fell to a four-year low. The yuan was close to a two-month low. Chinese Prime Minister warned about the risks to the economy from the escalation of the tariff war with the United States. At the same time, European markets did not succumb to provocation. London FTSE traded 0.1 percent higher,...

analytics5bc86b67305c0.jpg

The dollar has updated the weekly high, and the stock market fell amid signs that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates until 2019.

China's stock markets were hit hard. The stock base index fell to a four-year low. The yuan was close to a two-month low. Chinese Prime Minister warned about the risks to the economy from the escalation of the tariff war with the United States. At the same time, European markets did not succumb to provocation. London FTSE traded 0.1 percent higher, German DAX and French CAC rose 0.3 percent. The overall European stock index rose 0.4 percent.

The minutes of the last Fed meeting showed that the regulator unanimously supported the increase in interest rates last month, and that, in general, everyone agrees on the need for further increases. This reinforces the expectation that rates will rise, despite the opinion of President Donald Trump that the Fed is in too much of a hurry.

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One thing is clear, as if we are entering a period of tightening US monetary policy. The dollar looks more than confident against this background, it rebounded after the recent recession and is likely to continue its rise. Euro can not boast of such dynamics. In general, over the past three weeks, the euro has lost a little less than 3 percent of its value against the dollar. Other major currencies showed a limited reaction after the US government refused to call China a currency manipulator.

In its currency report, the US Treasury Department reported that the recent depreciation of the yuan in China is likely to exacerbate the US trade deficit, but Beijing cannot be blamed for directly affecting the value of the currency.

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News 18 Oct 2018, 13:14 UTC+00
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10 Technical analysis of Gold for October 19, 2018
Gold price pulled back below $1,220 but prices moved back up again towards $1,230. Gold price is in a short-term...
Gold price pulled back below $1,220 but prices moved back up again towards $1,230. Gold price is in a short-term consolidation phase. We cannot rule out a move lower towards $1,210 as long as price is below $1,233. Red lines - long-term bearish channel Green rectangle - support area Red rectangle - resistance area Green lines - expected price path Gold price is consolidating above the break out area of $1,207-12. Price has given us a bullish signal and the first target of $1,220 has...

Gold price pulled back below $1,220 but prices moved back up again towards $1,230. Gold price is in a short-term consolidation phase. We cannot rule out a move lower towards $1,210 as long as price is below $1,233.

analytics5bc96dc20968f.png

Red lines - long-term bearish channel

Green rectangle - support area

Red rectangle - resistance area

Green lines - expected price path

Gold price is consolidating above the break out area of $1,207-12. Price has given us a bullish signal and the first target of $1,220 has been achieved. Now we expect prices to move sideways or lower towards $1,210 for a back test of the break out area. Resistance is at $1,232-33. Breaking above this level will decrease dramatically any chances for a pull back towards $1,210. Next target is at $1,250-60.

Forex analysis 19 Oct 2018, 03:40 UTC+00
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