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1 Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on July 18
Dear colleagues. For the euro / dollar pair, we are watching the formation of the downward structure of July 15. The...
Forecast for July 18: Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs: For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1283, 1.1251, 1.1233, 1.1195, 1.1169, 1.1137 and 1.1116. Here, the price is in the correction zone from the downward structure on July 15. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown at 1.1195. In this case, the goal is 1.1169. Consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level 1.1169 should be accompanied by a...

Forecast for July 18:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

analytics5d2fd0c58281d.png

For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1283, 1.1251, 1.1233, 1.1195, 1.1169, 1.1137 and 1.1116. Here, the price is in the correction zone from the downward structure on July 15. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown at 1.1195. In this case, the goal is 1.1169. Consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level 1.1169 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 1.1137. For a potential value at the bottom, we consider the level 1.1116, after reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 1.1233 - 1.1251. The breakdown of the last value will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle. Here, the potential target is 1.1283.

The main trend - the formation of potential for the bottom of July 15

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1335 Take profit: 1.1250

Buy 1.1253 Take profit: 1.1280

Sell: 1.1195 Take profit: 1.1170

Sell: 1.1167 Take profit: 1.1140

analytics5d2fd0dfdb4db.png

For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2492, 1.2458, 1.2434, 1.2395, 1.2364 and 1.2337. Here, we are following the downward trend of July 12. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown at 1.2395. In this case, the target is 1.2364. For the potential value at the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2337, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the corridor 1.2434 - 1.2458. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2492. This level is a key support for the downward structure of July 12.

The main trend - the downward structure of July 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2435 Take profit: 1.2457

Buy: 1.2460 Take profit: 1.2492

Sell: 1.2395 Take profit: 1.2365

Sell: 1.2362 Take profit: 1.2337

analytics5d2fd0fc439e7.png

For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9952, 0.9902, 0.9881, 0.9841, 0.9820, 0.9797 and 0.9779. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of July 9. At the moment, the price is in the correction zone. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of 0.9841. In this case, the goal is 0.9820. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow us to count on the movement to 0.9797. There is a potential value for the downward trend, while we consider the level of 0.9779, and upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the correction.

Consolidated movement is possible in the corridor 0.9881 - 0.9902. We expect the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle to the level of 0.9902.

The main trend is the formation of the downward structure of July 9, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9881 Take profit: 0.9902

Buy : 0.9910 Take profit: 0.9950

Sell: 0.9840 Take profit: 0.9822

Sell: 0.9818 Take profit: 0.9797

analytics5d2fd11657c89.png

For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.42, 108.12, 107.94, 107.58, 107.41, 106.98 and 106.68. Here, we are following the downward structure of July 10. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 107.58 - 107.41. In this case, the goal is 106.98. For the potential value at the bottom, we consider the level of 106.68. From which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 107.94 - 108.12. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 108.42. This level is a key support for the bottom.

The main trend: the downward structure of July 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.94 Take profit: 108.12

Buy : 108.14 Take profit: 108.40

Sell: 107.40 Take profit: 107.00

Sell: 106.96 Take profit: 106.70

analytics5d2fd135140e8.png

For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3141, 1.3105, 1.3090, 1.3041, 1.3016, 1.3001, 1.2964 and 1.2937. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of July 9. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown level at 1.3041. In this case, the first goal is at level 1.3016. The price passage within the noise range 1.3016 - 1.3001 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. In this case, the target is 1.2964. For the potential value at the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2937, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

The range 1.3090 - 1.3105 is a key support for the downward structure. Its price passage will have to form an upward structure. In this case, the potential target is 1.3141.

The main trend - the downward structure of July 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3105 Take profit: 1.3140

Sell: 1.3041 Take profit: 1.3016

Sell: 1.3000 Take profit: 1.2965

analytics5d2fd1515be73.png

For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.7111, 0.7091, 0.7063, 0.7050, 0.7030, 0.7013, 0.6991 and 0.6969. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of July 10. The resumption of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of 0.7030. In this case, the first target is 0.7050. Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor of 0.7050 - 0.7063. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. In this case, the target is 0.7091. For the potential value to the top, we consider the level of 0.7111, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 0.7013 - 0.6991. The breakdown of the latter value will have to form the initial conditions for the downward cycle. Here, the goal is 0.6969.

The main trend - the rising structure of July 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7030 Take profit: 0.7050

Buy: 0.7063 Take profit: 0.7090

Sell : 0.7011 Take profit : 0.6993

Sell: 0.6988 Take profit: 0.6972

analytics5d2fd1ad831ff.png

For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.66, 121.35, 121.18, 120.92, 120.62, 120.48, 120.14 and 119.91. Here, we are following the downward structure of July 10. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of 120.90. In this case, the target is 120.62. Price consolidation is in the corridor 120.62 - 120.48. The breakdown of the level of 120.46 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 120.14. For the potential value at the bottom, we consider the level of 119.91, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 121.18 - 121.35. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 121.66. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend - the downward structure of July 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.18 Take profit: 121.33

Buy: 121.37 Take profit: 121.66

Sell: 120.90 Take profit: 120.62

Sell: 120.46 Take profit: 120.14

analytics5d2fd1c8c1a46.png

For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 135.04, 134.70, 134.44, 133.56, 133.24 and 132.91. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure from July 9, and at the moment we expect a movement to the level of 133.56. The breakdown of this value will allow us to expect a movement to the level of 133.24, near which, we expect consolidation. We consider the level 132.91 to be a potential value for the bottom. And after reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the correction.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 134.44 - 134.70. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 135.04. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of July 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 134.45 Take profit: 134.65

Buy: 134.72 Take profit: 135.04

Sell: 133.50 Take profit: 133.25

Sell: 133.20 Take profit: 132.91

Forex analysis 18 Jul 2019, 02:39 UTC+00
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2 Overview of GBP/USD on July 18th. The forecast for the "Regression Channels". The British economy may fall by 3% in 2020
The consumer price index in the UK did not fail. Today, we are waiting for the retail sales report for June
4-hour timeframe Technical data: The upper linear regression channel: direction – down. The lower linear regression channel: direction – down. The moving average (20; smoothed) – down. CCI: -65.0080 The British pound also began to adjust at the trading on Wednesday, July 17. This correction is still very weak. Meanwhile, the Office for Budget Responsibility of the UK is preparing to publish a report, according to which, the country's economy as a result of the "hard" Brexit...

4-hour timeframe

analytics5d30043d8cd58.png

Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -65.0080

The British pound also began to adjust at the trading on Wednesday, July 17. This correction is still very weak. Meanwhile, the Office for Budget Responsibility of the UK is preparing to publish a report, according to which, the country's economy as a result of the "hard" Brexit will lose 3% of GDP in 2020. Something similar was previously voiced by the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney. It seems that the economy of the Kingdom will have a hard time in the case of disordered Brexit, everyone understands. But there is no alternative to this option. Only to abandon Brexit in general, which indirectly and covertly sought by Laborites, calling for a second referendum. In general, the epic with the release of Britain from the EU continues and will occupy the front pages of publications at least until October 31. Is it worth saying once again that all this uncertainty and economic forecasts do not add strength to the pound, and that traders are confident that the British currency is worth buying? Both channels of linear regression eloquently show the direction of the current trend. The UK retail sales report for June may affect the course of trading, especially if the real value is worse than forecasts. Then the bears will be happy to resume selling the pound/dollar pair.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2421

S2 – 1.2390

S3 – 1.2360

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2451

R2 – 1.2482

R3 – 1.2512

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair started a weak upward correction. Thus, now, it is recommended to wait for its completion(Heiken Ashi turn down) and sell the pound sterling with the goals of 1.2390 and 1.2360.

It will be possible to buy the pound/dollar pair with the goals of 1.2543 and 1.2573 not earlier than the price consolidation above the moving average line, but with the minimum lots.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – blue line unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – purple line unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Forex analysis 18 Jul 2019, 05:57 UTC+00
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3 Overview of EUR/USD on July 18th. The forecast for the "Regression Channels". An impeachment procedure was initiated against Donald Trump
The US dollar fell slightly during the past day, Trump got involved in a racism scandal, the EU inflation report...
4-hour timeframe Technical data: The upper channel of linear regression: direction – up. The lower channel of linear regression: direction – down. The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways. CCI: -29.2804 On Wednesday, July 17, the EUR/USD pair showed an upward movement with grief in half. The overall strengthening of the euro was about 30 points. It seems that traders have worked out a conditionally positive report on inflation in the European Union for June. At the...

4-hour timeframe

analytics5d2ffc1d7786a.png

Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: -29.2804

On Wednesday, July 17, the EUR/USD pair showed an upward movement with grief in half. The overall strengthening of the euro was about 30 points. It seems that traders have worked out a conditionally positive report on inflation in the European Union for June. At the moment, the euro/dollar pair has adjusted to the moving average line and cannot overcome it yet. The pair's rebound from the moving average can provoke a resumption of the downward movement, and overcoming it will give the bulls a chance to form an upward trend. From a fundamental point of view, Thursday is a very boring day, as no important macroeconomic events are planned for today. Meanwhile, a new scandal involving Donald Trump broke out in America. During one of the interviews, the US President allowed himself to speak unflattering about several democratic women in a racist context, for which he immediately received a portion of criticism. However, the procedure for the removal of the President from his post, initiated by a Congressman from Texas, was immediately blocked by the House of Representatives of the US Congress. Trump himself called this procedure "the funniest project in his life." Thus, traders still had two weak reasons to reduce the "dollar" position. Now, we are waiting for how the market will behave around the MA.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1169

S2 – 1.1108

S3 – 1.1047

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1230

R2 – 1.1292

R3 – 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair has adjusted to the moving average. Now, therefore, it is recommended to wait for the price rebound from the moving and re-sell the euro/dollar pair with a target of 1.1169.

It is recommended to buy the euro in small lots if the bulls manage to consolidate above the moving average line, which will change the trend to the upward one, and the target, in this case, will be the level of 1.1292.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Forex analysis 18 Jul 2019, 05:57 UTC+00
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4 CAD is trading in a range, JPY remains the market leader
Complacency from the proposed Fed rate hike on July 31 may not have the expected effect. The threat of trade wars...
Complacency from the proposed Fed rate hike on July 31 may not have the expected effect. The threat of trade wars objectively contributes to the strengthening of the dollar since the economies of the main US trading partners look weak. The dollar bears the burden of the main world currency, so if the Central Bank of Europe, Japan, the United Kingdom, and China are aimed at easing financial conditions, then in order to stop the strengthening of the dollar under these conditions, you...

Complacency from the proposed Fed rate hike on July 31 may not have the expected effect. The threat of trade wars objectively contributes to the strengthening of the dollar since the economies of the main US trading partners look weak.

The dollar bears the burden of the main world currency, so if the Central Bank of Europe, Japan, the United Kingdom, and China are aimed at easing financial conditions, then in order to stop the strengthening of the dollar under these conditions, you need to pursue your own incentive policy much more actively, and by reducing the rate The situation is not correct.

If the Central Bank of Europe, Japan, the United Kingdom, and China are aimed at easing financial conditions, the dollar bears the burden of the main world currency. Then in order to stop the strengthening of the dollar under these conditions, you need to pursue your own incentive policy much more actively and by reducing the rate as the situation is not correct.

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Corporate incomes are unlikely to increase significantly after reducing the rate by 0.25%, tax reform allowed to raise corporate profits after 2.5 years of stagnation, however, the dynamics of the negative quarter and stock indices have exhausted their sources of growth. Then in order to stop the strengthening of the dollar under these conditions, you need to pursue your own incentive policy much more actively and by reducing the rate as the situation is not correct.

According to Mizuho, the US stock market is highly overvalued compared to fundamental indicators and is at risk of serious correction, so in order to keep the indices at current levels. Companies need to offer something more than a one-time reduction in the rate.

Thus, the Fed meeting on July 31 may lead to the fact that the markets will react with the dollar growth and market expectations on the rate will be adjusted in favor of another one or even two cuts in the current year.

USD/CAD pair

The report on inflation in June, published by the Bank of Canada on Wednesday, turned out to be negative for loonies. The core inflation showed zero growth as the figure dropped from 2.1% to 2.0% on an annualized basis instead of the expected growth to 2.6%.

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Growing inflation, combined with a consistently high level of oil prices, supported the Canadians for two months. However, both factors seem to be losing their influence. Oil prices fell to the lows of July, which was largely supported by statistics from the US Department of Energy, a sharp increase in gasoline and distillate stocks is occurring against the background of a steady decline in demand from refineries, which may indicate a reduction in consumption. Also, quotes were lowered by reports of possible negotiations between the US and Iran, which helps to relieve tension.

Thus, loonies lost the growth momentum and went to the side range. Today, data on employment in the private sector from ADP will be published then retail sales on Friday. However, they are unlikely to be able to bring the Canadian out of the trading range. The USD/CAD pair found support at 1.3020, which confirms the previous forecast. But for its passage, we need weighty arguments but are not yet available. The Resistance level of 1.3092 looks less stable in light of the growing demand for the dollar before the FOMC meeting.

USD/JPY pair

Almost a year has passed since the Bank of Japan took measures to stimulate the economy, linking two fundamental indicators into a single program. On the one hand, BoJ began a program of "quantitative and qualitative mitigation" (QQE), which was reduced to large-scale purchases of government bonds. Then, when the measures taken failed to produce results, the Bank supplemented the QQE program with an attempt to "control the yield curve" (YCC), which was supposed to stimulate lending. This ensures the gap between short-term interest rates when banks borrow and when they lend for long-term.

These measures were primarily aimed at supporting production and trade balance. Is there a result? It is more likely a no than yes. The latest report of the Ministry of Finance of Japan for June recorded a decline in exports by 6.7% y/y, imports by 5.2% y/y. Japan does not have much room to maneuver.

The trade war between the United States and China did not bring the expected dividends to the Japanese economy but it largely stimulates the demand for the yen. In the near future, the yen remains the favorite against the dollar and a test of the support at 107.53 with an eye to 106.77 is likely.

Forex analysis 18 Jul 2019, 09:50 UTC+00
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5 AUD / USD vs USD / CAD vs NZD / USD vs #USDX. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from July 18, 2019. Analysis of APLs & ZUP
Let us consider the comprehensive options for the development of the AUD / USD vs USD / CAD vs NZD / USD vs #USDX...
Minuette (H4) Let us consider the comprehensive options for the development of the AUD / USD vs USD / CAD vs NZD / USD vs #USDX movement from July 18, 2019 in the Minuette operational scale (H4 time frame). ____________________ US Dollar Index On July 18, 2019, the development of the movement of the dollar index #USDX will be determined by the direction of the range breakdown : - resistance level of 97.50 (lower boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette...

Minuette (H4)

Let us consider the comprehensive options for the development of the AUD / USD vs USD / CAD vs NZD / USD vs #USDX movement from July 18, 2019 in the Minuette operational scale (H4 time frame).

____________________

US Dollar Index

On July 18, 2019, the development of the movement of the dollar index #USDX will be determined by the direction of the range breakdown :

- resistance level of 97.50 (lower boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operating scale fork);

- support level of 97.20 (1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operating scale).

The breakdown of the support level of 97.20 (1/2 Median Line Minuette) will cause the downward movement of the dollar index to continue to the targets - the initial SSL line (97.00) of the Minuette operational scale fork - the lower boundary of ISL38.2 (96.90) of the Minuette operational scale - local minimum 96.75 - and as an option - to reach the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (96.20).

In case of the breakdown of the lower boundary of ISL38.2 Minuette (resistance level of 97.50), the development of the #USDX movement will continue in the equilibrium zone (97.50 - 97.63 - 97.80) of the Minuette operational scale, and if ISL61.8 Minuette (97.80) will be broken down, then it would be important to continue the upward movement of the dollar index to the final Schiff Line Minuette (98.00), with the prospect of reaching the final FSL Minuette line (98.35).

The details of the options for movement #USDX on July 18, 2019 are presented at the animated graphics.

analytics5d2f338e22018.jpg

____________________

Australian dollar vs US dollar

The development of the movement of the Australian dollar AUD / USD from July 18, 2019 will be determined by the working out and direction of the breakdown of the 1/2 Median Line channel borders (0.7000 - 0.7015 - 0.7040) of the Minuette operating scale.

The breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (resistance level of 0.7040) will determine the development of the AUD / USD movement in the equilibrium zone (0.7040 - 0.7060 - 0.7085) of the Minuette operating scale with the prospect of reaching the final Schiff Line Minuette (0.7100).

In case of breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel ( support level of 0.7000), the operational scale of the Minuette operational scale fork will become topical for the Australian dollar to reach the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6985 - 0.6965 - 0.6940) of the Minute operating scale with the possibility of updating the minimum of 0.6912.

The details of the options for the movement of AUD / USD from July 18, 2019 can be seen at the animated graphics.

analytics5d2f33a969679.jpg

____________________

New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar

The development of the movement of the New Zealand dollar NZD / USD from July 18, 2019 will be determined by the direction of the range breakdown :

- resistance level of 0.6725 (lower boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operating scale fork);

- support level of 0.6710

The breakdown of the resistance level of 0.6725 (ISL38.2 Minuette) will confirm the development of the movement of the New Zealand dollar in the equilibrium zone (0.6725 - 0.6755 - 0.6785) of the Minuette operational scale fork with the possibility of reaching the final FSL line (0.6845) of the Minuette operational scale.

On the other hand, in the event of the breakdown of the support level of 0.6710, the movement of the NZD / USD will continue to the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6710 - 0.6688 - 0.6666) Minuette operational scale fork with the possibility of the continuation of this movement (after the breakdown of the support level of 0.6666) is already in the zone of equilibrium (0.6688 - 0.6640 - 0.6595) Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the options for the movement of NZD / USD from July 18, 2019 are presented at the animated graphics.

analytics5d2f33c9a9ccd.jpg

____________________

US Dollar vs Canadian dollar.

Range Breakdown Direction :

- resistance level of 1.3085 (the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale);

- support level of 1.3050 (boundary of the red zone of the Minuette operational scale fork);

will begin to determine the development of the movement of the Canadian dollar USD / CAD from July 18, 2019.

After the support level of 1.3050 breaks down at the boundary of the Minuette operational scale fork, the development of the movement of the Canadian dollar will continue to the goals - local minimum 1.3017 - control line LTL (1.2985) of the Minuette operational scale - warning line LWL38.2 (1.2915) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

As a result of the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.3085, the development of the movement of the Canadian dollar will continue in the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (1.3085 - 1.3115 - 1.3140), and during the breakdown of the upper boundary (1.3140) of this channel, it will be possible to reach the boundaries of the equilibrium zone of USD / CAD (1.3165 - 1.3215 - 1.3260) Minuette operating scale.

The details of the options for the movement of USD / CAD from July 18, 2019 can be seen at the animated graphics.

analytics5d2f33eb188aa.jpg

____________________

The review was compiled without regard to the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders " sell " or " buy ").

The formula for calculating the dollar index is

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where power ratios correspond to the weights of currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6%;

Yen - 13.6%;

Pound sterling - 11.9%;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula gives the index value to 100 on the starting date - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

Forex analysis 18 Jul 2019, 00:52 UTC+00
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6 Wave analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for July 18. Market focus is on UK retail sales.
The UK retail sales report may give the market grounds for closing a portion of sales for the pound-dollar pair
EUR / USD On Wednesday, July 17, trading ended for EUR / USD with a 15 bp increase. It can be assumed that the pair nevertheless, proceeded to build a new downward trend. However, before breaking the minimum of the expected wave 1 or wave 2 or b, it is not time to talk about the readiness of the foreign exchange market for further sales. The fact is that the markets are not sure that further sales of the instrument are expedient in the light of a possible and very likely reduction...

EUR / USD

analytics5d3034de79c77.png

On Wednesday, July 17, trading ended for EUR / USD with a 15 bp increase. It can be assumed that the pair nevertheless, proceeded to build a new downward trend. However, before breaking the minimum of the expected wave 1 or wave 2 or b, it is not time to talk about the readiness of the foreign exchange market for further sales. The fact is that the markets are not sure that further sales of the instrument are expedient in the light of a possible and very likely reduction in the Fed rate. At the same time, there are no reasons to buy Eurocurrency from the markets either. Therefore, it can be noted that the waiting period has come. There is a mutual closing of positions on both sides, which leads to averaging of prices. Yesterday's report on inflation in the European Union can be interpreted in different ways. On one hand, it slightly exceeded market expectations, and meanwhile, inflation remains at a very low level, which can make the European Central Bank not only lower the rate, but also re-launch a program to stimulate the economy and the banking system. All this will be regarded as a weakness of monetary policy.

Purchase goals:

1.1412 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.1106 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.1025 - 127.2% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The euro / dollar pair still holds hopes for the upward trend. I still recommend small purchases of euros with targets located near the estimated mark of 1.1412, which equals to 0.0% Fibonacci, and an order restricting possible losses, under a minimum of wave 2 or b. Leaving the tool below the mark of 1.1179 will indicate that the tool is ready to build a downward trend.

GBP / USD

analytics5d3027257760f.png

The GBP / USD pair rose on July 17 by 30 basis points, and the current wave counting assumes the completion of the construction of the downward trend section, in particular, its fifth wave e. If this is true, then from the current position, the quotation increase will continue with targets located about 28 figures and above. Everything will depend on whether a 3-wave corrective part of the trend will be built or a full-fledged impulse. Despite the expected completion of the downside, this does not mean that now the pound will breathe freely, as the news background remains extremely unfavorable for this currency. Thus, in the best case, the news will allow the pound-dollar tool to build up three waves, which can be quite weak, at worst, the e waves or the entire downward trend section will become more complicated, which can be identified by the breakthrough of the current minimum of the e wave.

Sales targets:

1.2334 - 200.0% Fibonacci

1.2194 - 261.8% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.2783 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern of the pound / dollar instrument assumes the completion of the construction of the downward wave e. Thus, I recommend small purchases of a pair with targets located around 28 figures and with an order restricting losses under the minimum of wave e. I do not recommend to return to sales yet.

Forex analysis 18 Jul 2019, 08:51 UTC+00
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7 The decrease in USD rates is decided, but what do they think on Wall Street?
The response of the market to the strong US retail sales was negligible; traders preferred to focus on the next...
The response of the market to the strong US retail sales was negligible; traders preferred to focus on the next comments of the Fed. Therefore, on Wednesday, the dollar was only able to fix the growth of the previous session just above the level of 97. Speaking in Paris, Jerome Powell intervened in market expectations again, hinting at the risks of lowering inflation expectations, which requires a more flexible policy adjustment from officials. At the same time, the Federal...

analytics5d2fbbb776dc5.png

The response of the market to the strong US retail sales was negligible; traders preferred to focus on the next comments of the Fed. Therefore, on Wednesday, the dollar was only able to fix the growth of the previous session just above the level of 97.

analytics5d2fbbd520dc5.png

Speaking in Paris, Jerome Powell intervened in market expectations again, hinting at the risks of lowering inflation expectations, which requires a more flexible policy adjustment from officials. At the same time, the Federal Reserve persists in ignoring traditional fundamental data, showing its concern with leading indicators. After Powell's speech on Tuesday, the odds of a 50 bps rate cut increased to 31%. At the same time, the head of the Central Bank was able to convince the market that the Central Bank would be able to stimulate inflation, since the market metrics of inflationary expectations turned into growth from the end of June.

Thus, pressure on the American economy comes from trade relations with partners. Inflation expectations declined after the announcement of an increase in tariffs for Chinese goods. Powell has pointed out on this for more than once. It cannot be ruled out that the reaction of inflation expectations to the bottom was a "foresight" of the new cycle of mitigation of policy in response to the escalation of tariff tension. In this case, the Central Bank is led, as it responds to a false signal and ignores strong economic reports.

Be that as it may, it is difficult to consider a reduction in the rate of half a percent at once as a reasonable precautionary measure. The labor market and retail volume are growing quite confidently.

Next week, the ECB is expected to give a strong stimulus signal, which will reduce the risks of a further slowdown in growth abroad. This is one of the reasons for the Fed's concerns, along with the trade war. Friday's report on US GDP may contain a positive surprise, at least there are prerequisites for this. In this scenario, traders are unlikely to sell dollars.

Estimates and expectations of the world's largest banks about the Fed rate cut

The Goldman Sachs are waiting for the reduction of 25 basis points in July and another by the same amount until the end of this year. A similar opinion is shared by experts JPMorgan.

Everyone understands that the Fed is set to soften the policy in July, they write. The situation in the world remains alarming, business sentiment continues to deteriorate, and deflation signals from a slowdown in producer price pressure put pressure on corporate profits. The combination of these factors has a negative effect on the increase in capital expenditures in the world.

Representatives of Morgan Stanley and UBS predict an aggressive policy easing - immediately by 50 basis points without an additional reduction before the end of the year. In their opinion, the current situation requires decisive action. Over the past 12 months, the global economy has noticeably slowed down, aided by trade conflicts. US GDP also risks slowing growth.

Citigroup, on the other hand, forecasts a quarter percent decline in July and the same in September. According to them, a decrease of 25 basis points is a kind of compromise on the committee. Although, it is possible that some officials will vote to reduce by 50 basis points.

There is a consensus in Bank of America and Barclays. Jerome Powell made it clear that at the next meeting, the rate will be reduced regardless of statistics, they comment. The cost of lending will decline by at least 0.25% in July and another 0.5% by the end of the year.

News 18 Jul 2019, 00:08 UTC+00
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8 Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (July 18)
Over the past trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed volatility close to the average daily 74 points,...
Over the past trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed volatility close to the average daily 74 points, as a result of having a rollback in the market. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the recent impulse movement led us to the values of 2017, where we felt a foothold near the support level of 1.2350 and, as a fact, went into the rollback stage. As written in the previous review, many traders entered short positions even after the breakdown of the value...

Over the past trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed volatility close to the average daily 74 points, as a result of having a rollback in the market. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the recent impulse movement led us to the values of 2017, where we felt a foothold near the support level of 1.2350 and, as a fact, went into the rollback stage. As written in the previous review, many traders entered short positions even after the breakdown of the value of 1.2500, and in the area of 1.2430 / 1.2400, they began to partially fix to regroup trade transactions against the background of a possible retracement. Considering the trading chart in general terms (daily timeframe), we see that the global downward trend remains in the market, trying to go into the correction phase after the initial pullback at a given time.

The information and news background of the past day had statistics on inflation in the UK, where, as expected, its level was 2.0%. For the United States, we have published data on the construction sector, but in here, we have a decline. The number of building permits issued in June decreased from 1,299M to 1,220M, with a forecast of 1,300M. The volume of construction of new homes also shows a decline from 1.265 to 1.253. Thus, against the general background of overbought dollar, we saw its weakening. Moving on to the information background, here, as was discussed in the previous review, there are worries about the divorce process between the United Kingdom & European Union. The new European Commission President for Ursula von der Leyen said that she was ready to revise the release date from October 31 to a later date if there are objective reasons. At the same time, there are no real concessions in the agreement plan, and the policy of actions will continue along the same lines as Jean-Claude Juncker. Now we recall the statement of Boris Johnson, who aims to withdraw from the EU on October 31, if he does not make concessions. Thus, once again, we have to hang on place.

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Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on retail sales in Britain, where it is expected to increase from 2.3% to 2.6%, which can certainly spur an oversold pound. In the afternoon, there will be data on initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States, where growth is expected from 209K to 216K.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that overheating of short positions has led to the formation of a corrective move, where the quotation is actively trying to recover. It is likely to assume that the tact of "Correction" will lead us to the area of values 1.2480-1.2490, which will serve as a regrouping of trading forces. The existing short positions are better covered for now, unless, of course, you have already closed them.

analytics5d302165a1062.png

Based on the available information, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's specify them:

- Positions to buy are considered in the correction plan to 1.2480-1.2490.

- Positions for sale are considered in two versions: The first one, after the finish correction, where we will identify the optimal point to enter; The second option, below the value of 1.2400, if the current picture changes.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that the indicators in the short term have changed to the ascending side due to the current correction. Meanwhile, intraday and mid-term perspectives still maintain a downward interest, against the backdrop of a recent rally.

analytics5d3032448f190.png

Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.

(July 18 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 46 points. It is likely to assume that volatility can still grow on the background of the structure of the correction.

analytics5d30325b696fa.png

Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.2500; 1.2620; 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 *; 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1,3300.

Support areas: 1.2430; 1.2350 **; 1.2100 **; 1.2000.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

*** The article is based on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment

Forex analysis 18 Jul 2019, 08:18 UTC+00
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9 GBP / USD. July 17th. Results of the day. Holiday for the pound sterling. The day ended without loss.
The pound sterling began to be corrected, but the prospects remain far from bright. The date of the announcement of...
4-hour timeframe The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 77p - 74p - 60p - 67p - 125p. Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 81p (72p). On Wednesday, July 17, the British pound sterling managed without loss against the US currency. Whether the traders are tired of selling the British currency, or decided to take profits on the "dollar" positions, or the market reacted to inflation in the UK, which in June was 2.0% in annual terms and 0.0% in the monthly, so fully consistent with...

4-hour timeframe

analytics5d2fea5eca94c.png

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 77p - 74p - 60p - 67p - 125p.

Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 81p (72p).

On Wednesday, July 17, the British pound sterling managed without loss against the US currency. Whether the traders are tired of selling the British currency, or decided to take profits on the "dollar" positions, or the market reacted to inflation in the UK, which in June was 2.0% in annual terms and 0.0% in the monthly, so fully consistent with the forecasts of experts. One way or another, the correction has begun for the pound / dollar pair. It is true that the balance of power between the US and UK currencies has not changed a bit. The British currency had a chance to go up when Jerome Powell hinted by all available means that the Fed rate would be lowered in an expected meeting which will be held on July 30-31. And there is no more reason for growth in the pound sterling. Only one factor can be a stretch to bring in a positive British currency. On July 23, the name of the new Prime Minister of the country and the leader of the Conservative Party will be known. It is true that there is every reason to expect no surprises and if Boris Johnson will become the prime minister. There is also every reason to expect that his rhetoric regarding Brexit will not change and he will struggle to push the only possible way out for the UK from the EU on October 31 - without a "deal". And what does it give to the pound sterling? Nothing. The "hard" scenario could hit the pound's position even more, since it means a crushing blow to the UK economy. Even Mark Carney, the head of the British regulator, spoke of this. So it turns out that the pound can only hope that the Fed will begin easing monetary policy at every meeting,

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair pound / dollar began an upward correction. Thus, traders are advised to wait for it to complete and trade again for a fall with the targets of 1.2391 and 1.2350.

It will be possible to buy the British currency after the pair is re-consolidated above the Kijun-Sen line, which will lead to a change of trend to ascending. The targets are the Senkou Span B line and the 1.2621 level.

The fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account in addition to the technical picture.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - red line.

Kijun-sen - blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

A red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

Forex analysis 18 Jul 2019, 03:26 UTC+00
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10 Trading Plan for EUR / USD and GBP / USD pairs as of 07/18/2019
Both the European and American statistics clearly favored the weakening of the dollar. Today, this trend will...
Of course, a rebound on the dollar was quite predictable and expected but always needs at least some reason. Yesterday, such an occasion was provided by European statistics. British statistics came out without any surprises, which fully coinciding with the forecasts and inflation in the United Kingdom remained unchanged. On the continent, everything was somewhat more interesting as inflation refused to stand still and moved forward, accelerating from 1.2% to 1.3%. Not only Mario Draghi has...

Of course, a rebound on the dollar was quite predictable and expected but always needs at least some reason. Yesterday, such an occasion was provided by European statistics. British statistics came out without any surprises, which fully coinciding with the forecasts and inflation in the United Kingdom remained unchanged. On the continent, everything was somewhat more interesting as inflation refused to stand still and moved forward, accelerating from 1.2% to 1.3%. Not only Mario Draghi has the actions of a heart balm but also on the hearts of all investors in the world. American statistics also fueled interest in getting rid of portraits of dead presidents, as the number of construction permits issued decreased by 79 thousand and the number of construction projects started decreased by 12 thousand waited for a slightly different result. In particular, the number of issued construction permits decreased, instead of an increase of only 1 thousand. The Number of existing buildings had to decline but only by 4 thousand. The general mood of investors who do not particularly believe in the bright future of the European economy.

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Nevertheless, the dollar may continue its progressive decline and the beginning of this process will put data on retail sales in the UK, where inflation has not increased, but sales may accelerate the growth rate from 2.3% to 2.6%. In other words, prices remained the same and they began to buy more. Consequently, the profits of sellers and manufacturers are still growing. The American statistics will continue to disappoint market participants since the total number of applications for unemployment benefits may increase by 5 thousand. In particular, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits should increase by 2 thousand and repeated ones by another 3 thousand.

analytics5d30130a9e2c9.png

The euro/dollar currency pair has once again found support in the area of 1.1180, where it slowed down and turned around. It is likely to assume that the quotation will still be able to strengthen slightly towards 1.1260/1.1275, however, stagnation is possible.

analytics5d301323cdb04.png

The pound/dollar currency pair went to the retracement stage in the general overheating of short positions after the impulse movement and the break of the two-year minimum found a foothold around the 1.2380 mark. It is likely to assume that due to overheating, we can see a corrective move in the direction of 1.2480-1.2490.

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Forex analysis 18 Jul 2019, 06:53 UTC+00
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