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1 GBP/USD: plan for the European session on January 17. Parliament voted against Brexit agreement
GBP/USD: plan for the European session on January 17. Parliament voted against Brexit agreement
To open long positions on GBP/USD you need: The British pound regained its position after yesterday's decline. The British Parliament voted against the Brexit agreement, which was quite expected and did not lead to significant changes in the market. Purchases of GBP/uSD today can be seen after the formation of a false breakdown in the area of 1.2812 or a rebound from the support of 1.2743. However, the main task remains a breakthrough above the resistance of 1.2883, which will resume the...

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

The British pound regained its position after yesterday's decline. The British Parliament voted against the Brexit agreement, which was quite expected and did not lead to significant changes in the market. Purchases of GBP/uSD today can be seen after the formation of a false breakdown in the area of 1.2812 or a rebound from the support of 1.2743. However, the main task remains a breakthrough above the resistance of 1.2883, which will resume the uptrend and will allow to reach the highs of 1.2964 and 1.3016. Much will depend on the data on inflation in the UK, which is expected to be released today in the morning.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

An unsuccessful consolidation above the resistance of 1.2883 will be the first signal to open short positions in the pound, but the main task will be the breakdown and consolidation under the support of 1.2812, which will sharply pull down GBP/USD to the lows in the area of 1.2743 and 1.2672, where I recommend to fix the profit. In case of a further uptrend after the release of good data on inflation in the UK, it is best to consider short positions from the new highs of 1.2964 and 1.3016.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving, which indicates the uncertain nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In case the pound increases, the upward movement may be limited by the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.2935. Purchases of pounds can be viewed after the test of the lower border of the indicator 1.2743.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
Forex analysis 16 Jan 2019, 07:13 UTC+00
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2 Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 16, 2019
The EUR/USD pair opened below the weekly pivot point (1.1440). It continued to move downwards from the level of...
Overview: The EUR/USD pair opened below the weekly pivot point (1.1440). It continued to move downwards from the level of 1.1440 to the bottom around 1.1378. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.1471 followed by 1.1516, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.1371. Furthermore, the moving average (100) starts signaling a downward trend; therefore, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 1.1440. So it will be good to sell at 1.1440 with the first target of...

Overview:

The EUR/USD pair opened below the weekly pivot point (1.1440). It continued to move downwards from the level of 1.1440 to the bottom around 1.1378. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.1471 followed by 1.1516, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.1371.

analytics5c3f0f0f81e09.png

Furthermore, the moving average (100) starts signaling a downward trend; therefore, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 1.1440. So it will be good to sell at 1.1440 with the first target of 1.1371. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 1.1308. The strong daily support is seen at the 1.1371 level, which represents the double bottom on the H1 chart. According to the previous events, we expect the EUR/USD pair to trade between 1.1440 and 1.1371 in coming hours. The price area of 1.1471 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend is still bearish as long as the level of 1.1471 is not broken. On the contrary, in case a reversal takes place and the EUR/USD pair breaks through the resistance level of 1.1471, then a stop loss should be placed at 1.1503.

Comment:

  • The daily pivot is seen at the level of 1.1440.
  • Major resistance is see at the level of 1.1471.
  • The market is still in a downtrend. We still prefer the bearish scenario.
Forex analysis 16 Jan 2019, 10:12 UTC+00
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3 EUR/USD. January 16. Results of the day. In the evening, Theresa May can be dismissed
The EUR/USD currency pair on Wednesday, January 16, dropped to the support level of 1.1386 and by and large stood all...
4-hour timeframe The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 121p - 85p - 83p - 31p - 108p. Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 86p (76p). On Wednesday, January 16, the EUR/USD currency pair plummeted to the support level of 1.1386 and, by and large, stood all day in one place. Despite the fact that yesterday an event took place, which in terms of importance is unparalleled, today the activity of traders is practically zero, and the instrument's volatility is rather low. During...

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 121p - 85p - 83p - 31p - 108p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 86p (76p).

On Wednesday, January 16, the EUR/USD currency pair plummeted to the support level of 1.1386 and, by and large, stood all day in one place. Despite the fact that yesterday an event took place, which in terms of importance is unparalleled, today the activity of traders is practically zero, and the instrument's volatility is rather low. During the last part of the day, not a single important macroeconomic report was published in the eurozone or in the United States. But in the next hour a report on retail sales in America will be released, which is considered to be quite important. It is expected that the increase in December, taking into account and excluding car sales will be 0.2%. Any value above this will support the American currency. At least a small one. However, an even more important event, comparable to yesterday's Brexit vote, will take place tonight in the same British parliament. Deputies will vote for a no-confidence vote for Theresa May. And according to the results of this vote, Theresa May can be dismissed. From our point of view, the probability of such a deplorable outcome for the current prime minister is about 90%. Too big and important defeat she suffered the day before. By and large, its negotiations with the EU now have no special meaning, since it is unclear what awaits the UK, even in the near future. It is also possible to hold parliamentary elections, the choice of a new prime minister. The new government can hold a new referendum or start new negotiations with the EU or even abandon Brexit altogether. In general, despite the fact that these events are more important for the pound, we believe that they can also affect the euro currency.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD pair retains the prospects of a downward movement, but it cannot overcome the level of 1.1386 yet. Thus, a correction may begin, and it is recommended to open new sell positions not earlier than overcoming the level of 1.1386 with the goal of 1.1314.

Long positions can be considered not earlier than the bulls overcoming the level of 1.1487. In this case, long positions with the target of 1.1560 will become relevant again.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen-red line.

Kijun-sen – blue line.

Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.

Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.

Chikou span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

Forex analysis 17 Jan 2019, 01:02 UTC+00
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4 Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 16, 2019
The current bearish decline below the key level of 1.1400 brings more sideway downward consolidations to 1.1250 again...
Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with a slight bearish tendency. Narrow sideway consolidations have been maintained within the depicted daily movement channel. On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower border of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair. Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market...

analytics5c3f2758d82e9.png

Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with a slight bearish tendency. Narrow sideway consolidations have been maintained within the depicted daily movement channel.

On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower border of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market demonstrated significant bearish rejection around 1.1420 a few times.

Last week, a recent attempt of a bullish breakout above 1.1520 (upper border of the depicted movement channel) was executed. However, early signs of a bearish rejection are being expressed below 1.1520 and 1.1420 on the daily charts.

This renders the recent bullish breakout above 1.1420 and 1.1520 as a false breakout. Hence, any bullish pullback towards 1.1420 can be considered as a valid SELL entry for intraday traders.

The current bearish decline below the key level of 1.1400 brings more sideway downward consolidations to 1.1250 again where bullish rejection may be anticipated for a valid BUY entry.

On the other hand, in case a successful bullish breakout above 1.1520 is achieved again, this enables further bullish advancement towards 1.1600 (October's High) and probably 1.1720 if enough bullish momentum is maintained.

Forex analysis 16 Jan 2019, 11:47 UTC+00
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5 Gold has chosen a trend
Despite a weak start, the precious metal is optimistic about the future
Taking off at 10% of the levels of the 18-month lows that occurred in August, gold held its horses. The current January could be the worst for it in the last 6 years, and a natural question arises for investors, will the precious metal be able to continue the rally? It has traditionally been used as a safe-haven and a hedge against inflation, but the slow dynamics of the latter and the increasing likelihood of ending the trade war between the United States and China force the bulls on XAU /...

Taking off at 10% of the levels of the 18-month lows that occurred in August, gold held its horses. The current January could be the worst for it in the last 6 years, and a natural question arises for investors, will the precious metal be able to continue the rally? It has traditionally been used as a safe-haven and a hedge against inflation, but the slow dynamics of the latter and the increasing likelihood of ending the trade war between the United States and China force the bulls on XAU / USD to be cautious.

The impressive spurt of gold at the end of 2018 was due to the favorable environment for it. The US dollar, the yield of Treasury bonds and stock indices fell, the demand for reliable assets grew. At the same time, market rumors were spreading about the end of the economic cycle. The Wall Street Journal experts have increased the likelihood of a recession in the US economy by up to 25%, the maximum mark since 2011, and weak statistics from China and Germany suggest serious problems with global GDP. As a rule, in such conditions, interest in precious metals grows, as evidenced by the increase in reserves of specialized exchange-traded funds to 71.9 million ounces, which is slightly less than the record high of 72 million ounces that occurred in May 2018.

Dynamics of the yield of US bonds and gold

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Gold ETF Stock Trends

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Currently, despite a sluggish start, gold has no shortage of bullish forecasts. For example, Goldman Sachs expects to see it at around $ 1,425 per ounce for 12 months. The main arguments buyers say are the potential weakening of the US dollar and the fall in the US debt market rates. If the Fed makes a long pause in the process of normalizing monetary policy or terminates it (the forward market assesses the odds of a single increase in the federal funds rate in 2019 to a modest 17%), bond yields and the USD index are unlikely to be able to restore the uptrend. Pressure on them has the longest in the history of a government shutdown in the States. Fitch Ratings warns that delaying the process may lead to a downgrade of the country's credit rating.

Standard Chartered notes an increase in the activity of central banks in the area of buying precious metals. At the end of 2018, their gold reserves increased by 500 tons. The shift occurred even in the Middle Kingdom (+10 tons), which for the past two years showed passivity. The protectionism policy pursued by Donald Trump forces affected countries to move away from the US dollar, and gold is a good alternative. At the same time, the weakening of the USD index and the growth of the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee can increase the demand for physical assets in Asian countries, the largest precious metal consumers in the world.

Technically, consolidating in the $ 1275-1300 per ounce area near the target by 200% using the AB = CD pattern looks logical. The Bulls reached the target and made a halt. A breakthrough of the psychologically important level of $ 1,300 will most likely lead to the continuation of the northern gold trek.

Gold, the daily chart

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Forex analysis 16 Jan 2019, 11:00 UTC+00
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6 Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for January 16, 2019
GBP/USD has been extremely volatile with the recent price action due to the Parliamentary Brexit Vote which is...
GBP/USD has been trading with higher volatility with extreme price swings since the Parliamentary Brexit Vote yesterday. After the defeat of British PM Theresa May's Brexit Divorce deal, the market turned volatile without a clear trend as the political chaos could be triggered in the coming days. Ahead of the Brexit deadline on March 29, the UK is facing the deepest political crisis which has not been observed for the last 50 years. PM May disagrees with the vote and states that the vote...

GBP/USD has been trading with higher volatility with extreme price swings since the Parliamentary Brexit Vote yesterday. After the defeat of British PM Theresa May's Brexit Divorce deal, the market turned volatile without a clear trend as the political chaos could be triggered in the coming days.

Ahead of the Brexit deadline on March 29, the UK is facing the deepest political crisis which has not been observed for the last 50 years. PM May disagrees with the vote and states that the vote does not tell about what exactly the House of Commons supports. So, there is still a dilemma about the overall decision. Meanwhile, GBP has lost favor with investors today. Citing well-informed sources, experts believe there is a strong liklihood that the Britons will insist on the second vote in a national ballot. As things are currently quite different from that of 2016, the Brexit deal is going to make a severe impact on GBP. Currently the Brexit deal is facing two scenarios. It could get delayed which will end up with certain positive outcome. Alternatively, immediate higher volatility may lead to severe weakness of GBP and in the long run it is going to extend softness. Today Bank of England Governor Carney is going to speak about monetary policy. His speech is expected to hold a key to further price development of GBP. Things are still quite indefinite, and GBP is going to trade firmly lower.

On the other hand, FED's Presidents of different states advocate for a pause in monetary tightening to observe the impact fo such a pause on the economy. Too rapid pace of rate hikes may create uncomfortable conditions for developing businesses in the country. US President Donald Trump has targeted the cycle of rate hikes. But the FED did not respond to it and took a paternalistic approach to the recent rate hikes. The FED has raised interest rate 9 times since 2015, including 4 times in 2018. FED's Dallas President Kaplan stated that some industries are being affected already by the rate hikes, which tightened financial conditions and slowed down global growth. Recently US PPI report was published with a decrease to -0.2% from the previous value of 0.1% which was expected to be at -0.1% and Core PPI also showed decrease to -0.1% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to be at 0.2%.

Meanwhile, ahead of UK CPI, RPI, and PPI reports to be published today which could be downbeat, the pair could make corrections amid higher volatility. USD has been affected by worse-than-expected economic reports. Though GBP may look weaker than USD in comparison, the pair is going to trade without a clear trend which will be evident in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below 1.30 area with a daily close while having extreme volatility in place. Though the price recently rejected off the 1.2700-50 support area with a daily close. The overall bias is bullish. As the price breaks below 1.2700 area with a daily close, the trend is going to face a counter-move with strong bearish momentum. As the price remains above 1.27 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 1.2500, 1.2700-50

RESISTANCE: 1.2930, 1.30

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5c3efb3adf6f9.png

Forex analysis 16 Jan 2019, 08:38 UTC+00
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7 Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, JAN 17, 2019
When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Spanish 10-y Bond Auction, Final Core CPI...
When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Spanish 10-y Bond Auction, Final Core CPI y/y, Final CPI y/y, and Italian Trade Balance. The US will also publish the economic data such as Natural Gas Storage, Unemployment Claims, and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move in a low to a medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1455. Strong Resistance: 1.1448. Original Resistance:...

analytics5c3ffc7db534e.jpg

When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Spanish 10-y Bond Auction, Final Core CPI y/y, Final CPI y/y, and Italian Trade Balance. The US will also publish the economic data such as Natural Gas Storage, Unemployment Claims, and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move in a low to a medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1455. Strong Resistance: 1.1448. Original Resistance: 1.1437. Inner Sell Area: 1.1426. Target Inner Area: 1.1399. Inner Buy Area: 1.1372. Original Support: 1.1361. Strong Support: 1.1350. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1343. (Disclaimer)

Forex analysis 17 Jan 2019, 02:55 UTC+00
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8 Wave analysis of EUR / USD pair for January 16. Draghi and Brexit put pressure on the euro
On Tuesday, January 15, trading the EUR/USD pair ended with a decrease of 60 basis points. Thus, the current uptrend...
Wave counting analysis: On Tuesday, January 15, trading the EUR/USD pair ended with a decrease of 60 basis points. Thus, the current uptrend of the trend beginning on November 12, may take a more ambiguous and complex look, and although the whole wave may take the form of a diagonal triangle, such a strong instrument decline and support for this fall with news can lead to a continuation of the fall and transformation of the wave pattern. An important level is now the level of 23.6% on...

Wave counting analysis:

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On Tuesday, January 15, trading the EUR/USD pair ended with a decrease of 60 basis points. Thus, the current uptrend of the trend beginning on November 12, may take a more ambiguous and complex look, and although the whole wave may take the form of a diagonal triangle, such a strong instrument decline and support for this fall with news can lead to a continuation of the fall and transformation of the wave pattern. An important level is now the level of 23.6% on the small Fibonacci grid. Above it remain the chances of building a new rising wave of 5 in s.

Sales targets:

1.1345 - 38.2% Fibonacci

1.1315 - 23.6% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1599 - 161.8% Fibonacci

1.1677 - 200.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair turned out building wave 4 in c, which turns out pretty deep. Since the wave does not look complete but can take a diagonal view, I expect to resume raising the tool and from current levels or slightly lower. I recommend buying a pair with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.1599 and 1.1677. Protective orders suggest placing below the level of 23.6% Fibonacci.

Forex analysis 16 Jan 2019, 08:43 UTC+00
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9 Analysis of Gold for January 16, 2019
Watch for buying Gold if you see a breakout of the key resistance at $1,298.00
Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,292.00. Gold is in a big consolidation phase and the best thing to do is to wait for the confirmation and for a breakout. The overall trend is still bullish and I would advice you to watch for a bullish breakout. The key resistance level is set at the price of $1,298.00. I also found a rectangular pattern inside of a symmetrical triangle, which is a sign that we may see very soon expansion in price. Trading recommendations for...

analytics5c3f4cbdaf21c.png

Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,292.00. Gold is in a big consolidation phase and the best thing to do is to wait for the confirmation and for a breakout. The overall trend is still bullish and I would advice you to watch for a bullish breakout. The key resistance level is set at the price of $1,298.00. I also found a rectangular pattern inside of a symmetrical triangle, which is a sign that we may see very soon expansion in price.

Trading recommendations for today: We will buy gold at $1.299.00-$1.300 with the targets at $1,309.30 (rectangle projection) and $1.317.00 (symmetrical triangle projection)

Forex analysis 16 Jan 2019, 14:25 UTC+00
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10 GBP/USD analysis for January 16, 2019
Watch for a breakout of resistance to confirm further upward continuation. The first upward target will be set at the...
Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been extremely volatile in the last 24 hours due to the Brexit news. However, I found that buyers and sellers agreed to operate in a range within 1.2895 (resistance) and 1.2835 (support), which is a sign that market is in the balance regime. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of resistance to confirm further upward continuation. I also found very strong demand in the background and aggressive buyers. Trading recommendations for today: We will...

analytics5c3f529fc682e.png

Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been extremely volatile in the last 24 hours due to the Brexit news. However, I found that buyers and sellers agreed to operate in a range within 1.2895 (resistance) and 1.2835 (support), which is a sign that market is in the balance regime. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of resistance to confirm further upward continuation. I also found very strong demand in the background and aggressive buyers.

Trading recommendations for today: We will buy GBP/USD at 1.2910 with the targets at 1.2960 and 1.3040.

Forex analysis 16 Jan 2019, 14:51 UTC+00
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