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1 Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 23. COT report. Powell's speech did not stop the dollar from appreciating
EUR/USD 1H The EUR/USD pair finally fell into the support area of 1.1702-1.1726 on the hourly timeframe on September...
EUR/USD 1H The EUR/USD pair finally fell into the support area of 1.1702-1.1726 on the hourly timeframe on September 22, where it had not been in for a long time. However, this area is the lower border of the $1.17-1.19 horizontal channel, which we have mentioned every day for almost two months now. We say that because the euro/dollar pair spent 90% of these two months within this channel. The quotes continue to trade in flat and even fell during the last two trading days, and this...

EUR/USD 1H

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The EUR/USD pair finally fell into the support area of 1.1702-1.1726 on the hourly timeframe on September 22, where it had not been in for a long time. However, this area is the lower border of the $1.17-1.19 horizontal channel, which we have mentioned every day for almost two months now. We say that because the euro/dollar pair spent 90% of these two months within this channel. The quotes continue to trade in flat and even fell during the last two trading days, and this still does not change the overall technical picture. If the bears manage to confidently overcome the 1.1702-1.1726 area, then one can expect quotes to fall towards targets of 1.1663 and 1.1588. Globally, such a downward correction has been brewing a long time ago, since after rising by 1300 points, the pair corrected by only 200, which is very little.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels are directed to the downside on the 15 minute timeframe, signaling a downward movement. The EUR/USD pair continued to trade in the horizontal channel of 1.17-1.19 last week. Therefore, even if there were changes in the mood of large traders, it did not show on the pair's chart. And there were changes. Non-commercial traders closed as many as 17,000 Buy-contracts (longs) and only 1,500 Sell-contracts (shorts) during the reporting week (September 9-15). Thus, the sentiment of the most important group of traders, "non-commercial", has shifted towards bearish. The net position for this group also decreased by 15,000 contracts. In turn, this means that professional traders began to look towards buying the US dollar and selling the euro. Commercial traders actively closed both types of contracts. However, we are less interested in this group. We still haven't seen results from all these changes. And the nature of the pair's movement hasn't changed much from September 16 to 22. We still failed to get out of the horizontal channel, and falling towards the 1.1700 level is not something extraordinary. Thus, the new COT report, which will be released on Friday, may signal new changes, but there were none on the foreign exchange market during the reporting period.

No important speeches or publications in the European Union on Tuesday, September 22. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a speech in the US Congress, but traders were not that impressed, who, in principle, were anticipating the speech. Powell reiterated that economic recovery entirely depends on the success of the fight against the coronavirus epidemic and called on Congress to approve a new package of assistance to all the most affected areas of the economy. Powell is scheduled to make another speech in Congress today, which will most likely repeat yesterday's one with accuracy. Thus, traders can pay more attention to the indexes of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors of Germany, the European Union and the United States. Changes in these indicators are expected to be minimal, therefore, most likely, market participants will ignore all these reports.

We have two trading ideas for September 23:

1) Buyers released the EUR/USD pair to the lower area of the $1.17-1.19 horizontal channel. Therefore, we recommend considering long positions if the pair remains inside the horizontal channel, and the bulls manage to settle above the Kijun-sen line (1.1782), while aiming for the Senkou Span B line (1.1835) and the resistance area of 1.1894-1.1910... Take Profit in this case will be from 40 to 90 points.

2) Bears pulled down the pair in half to the lower area of the 1.17-1.19 horizontal channel, but now they have to overcome the lower border. If this attempt is successful, we recommend trading down with targets at the support levels of 1.1663 and 1.1588. The potential Take Profit in this case is from 25 to 90 points. Otherwise, the pair will start a new round of upward movement inside the horizontal channel.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Forex analysis 23 Sep 2020, 01:42 UTC+00
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2 Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 23. Joe Biden's victory will lead to a change in US trade policy.
4-hour timeframe Technical details: Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward. Lower linear regression...
4-hour timeframe Technical details: Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward. Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward. Moving average (20; smoothed) – down. CCI: -156.3390 The EUR/USD pair continued its downward movement for the second trading day, although the pair's quotes are located near the lower border of the side channel of 1.17-1.19, where it is more logical to consider long positions. However, market participants decided otherwise. In any case, the...

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -156.3390

The EUR/USD pair continued its downward movement for the second trading day, although the pair's quotes are located near the lower border of the side channel of 1.17-1.19, where it is more logical to consider long positions. However, market participants decided otherwise. In any case, the flat should end sooner or later. Why not now? We are not saying that it has already been completed, however, the fall in the euro currency quotes should not cause too much surprise either. Recall that after the European currency rose by 1300 points, which caused almost a panic in the ranks of the European Central Bank, there was no normal correction. All the traders managed to do was lower the pair by 200 points, which is very small to be called a "correction". Moreover, the euro/dollar pair has been trading in a 200-point sideways range for two months, thus, it is too early to talk about the end of the flat because the pair is declining for the second day in a row.

Meanwhile, the "battle for the seat" continues in the States. We are talking about the presidential election, which will be held on November 3. We have repeatedly written about this event, stating that this event is now the most important and significant for the country and the dollar. This is not an event that can have a momentary impact on the movement of the US currency. However, for a long-term perspective, it is of great importance. In the last two trading days, the US currency has become more expensive, but if the flow of negative news resumes from overseas, the dollar's strengthening may be very short. In the meantime, Donald Trump and Joe Biden continue to mutually insult each other, believing that this will somehow increase their chances of winning in a month and a half. We have repeatedly conducted an analysis, during which it became clear that the upcoming elections will be one of the most interesting in the history of the United States. Neither Trump nor Biden will accept defeat, thus, there will probably be "foul play" and various "tricks", after which the fight for the president's seat can safely move to the courts.

Meanwhile, the democratic presidential candidate Biden said that the States suffered from the "coronavirus" more than other countries in the world because the current president did not take all the necessary measures. According to Biden, Donald Trump failed to keep his cool at an extremely important moment for a multi-million-strong country, which caused the loss of more than 200,000 human lives. However, this is far from the end, because, despite all Trump's promises to create a vaccine in the near future, the real vaccination of the population will begin at the beginning of next year. And in America, about 40,000 people are infected with the "coronavirus" every day. "All his life, Donald Trump has been running from the problems he faced. In light of this crisis, when it took the president to play a leading role, he failed, and all of America paid the price," Biden told supporters in Wisconsin. "More than 200,000 people have died in the past six months. So many lives have been lost because the only thing the president cares about is the stock markets and the election," Biden added. Joe Biden also calls the US president a "fool" who "does stupid things and shows false masculinity". To this insinuation, Trump responded as follows: "Look at sleepy Joe, how did he handle the swine flu? It was a failure, a nightmare." However, Trump did not say what exactly was the "failure" and "nightmare". Therefore, his accusations against Biden do look rather weak. Especially because Biden was not president at the time, which means that he can not be blamed completely for any events taking place in the United States when he was Vice President under Barack Obama.

Meanwhile, many US trade partners are counting on Joe Biden to win the election. They are counting on him because they hope for a change in US trade policy. According to sources close to Biden, it is unlikely to expect strong changes, however, it may become softer and more consistent. Although Biden also promises to reduce US dependence on China, he may still be more lenient in negotiations and strike a fairer deal that ends the trade war that is negatively affecting both the US and Chinese economies, as well as the global economy. By the way, a change in trade strategy would be in the hands of the States themselves. As we have said several times, the trade deficit has only increased under Donald Trump. Thus, it doesn't matter what deal was made with China or how much the trade deficit with that country has shrunk. In fact: the overall trade balance for America continues to shrink. If something doesn't work as expected, then you need to change your strategy. Trump can't provide a new strategy, however, Biden can. Joe Biden promises to use a wider range of tools in his trade policy. In general, Biden's proposals are in many ways similar to Trump, however, they are more loyal, which means they have a better chance of positive implementation. Because we once again remind you that negotiations are always at least two countries. While Washington can negotiate with weak and small countries from a position of strength, it cannot do so with Russia and China. Biden understands this and Trump doesn't.

Thus, we believe that if Joe Biden wins the election, the demand for the US dollar will automatically grow. Simply because it will mean the end of the war with American manufacturers, whose production has been operating for years in China, Taiwan, and other countries with cheap labor, as well as the possible end of the trade war with China, which is almost openly supporting the democratic candidate. As for the near-term perspective, until the euro/dollar pair leaves the channel of 1.17-1.19, there is no need to talk about any trend movement. Near the Murray level of "4/8" - 1.1719, an upward turn may occur and a new round of upward movement will begin inside the same side channel.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of September 23 is 91 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1621 and 1.1803. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back upward signals a round of upward movement in the remaining side channel of $ 1.17 - $ 1.19.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1719

S2 – 1.1658

S3 – 1.1597

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1780

R2 – 1.1841

R3 – 1.1902

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair is fixed below the moving average line but remains in the side channel. Thus, formally, you can now hold short positions with targets of 1.1658 and 1.1621 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns upward. It is recommended to re-consider options for opening long positions if the pair is fixed above the moving average with the first targets of 1.1841 and 1.1902.

Forex analysis 23 Sep 2020, 00:59 UTC+00
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3 Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 23. The speeches of Jerome Powell and Andrew Bailey did not add clarity to the markets.
4-hour timeframe Technical details: Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward. Lower linear regression...
4-hour timeframe Technical details: Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward. Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward. Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward. CCI: -178.8262 On the third trading day, the British pound traded in a downward movement again, although it made a significant upward leap during the day. Such versatile trading and sharp changes in the direction of the pair's movement during the day were caused by two speeches by the heads of...

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -178.8262

On the third trading day, the British pound traded in a downward movement again, although it made a significant upward leap during the day. Such versatile trading and sharp changes in the direction of the pair's movement during the day were caused by two speeches by the heads of central banks (America and the UK). Recall that last week, with a difference of one day, meetings of the Bank of England and the Fed were held, during which all the parameters of both monetary policies remained unchanged. But if Jerome Powell was optimistic enough in his statements, Andrew Bailey was not. However, neither the first nor the second event had a special impact on the movement of the pound/dollar pair. For the British currency, the topic of the lack of a free trade agreement with the European Union, as well as the resonant bill of Boris Johnson, which can finally divide Brussels and London, remains much more important. Thus, we can make almost one hundred percent conclusion that the British pound resumed falling based on this fundamental background, although there have been no new reports on the two above-mentioned topics in recent days. We also remind you that the euro/dollar remains flat for two months, which is not observed for the pound/dollar pair.

Jerome Powell's speech to the US Congress was expected by traders, as well as any of his other speeches. However, we have warned in our recent articles that it is unlikely that Jerome will report anything fundamentally important and new, since just recently the Fed meeting took place, after which he could report everything that was required. According to Powell, the risks to the US economy remain extremely high. Financial assistance ($4 trillion approved by the US Congress in March) has had a mitigating effect on the consequences of the "coronavirus epidemic". However, the future of the US economy depends entirely on how well the fight against the epidemic is conducted in the future. Powell stressed that the pandemic has not gone anywhere, and there was no end to the "wave". States continue to be in a permanent state of development of the epidemic. The head of the Fed also noted that recently there has been an improvement in macroeconomic indicators, which, however, should not be misleading, since the "lockdown" is over, and the economy would have revived after that in any case. Powell is very concerned about the country's unemployment rate, which remains well above pre-crisis levels. The head of the Federal Reserve has also stated several times that before the complete victory over the "coronavirus", it makes no sense to expect a full recovery in business and economic activity. In other words, the US economy will not be able to return to pre-crisis levels until there is a complete victory over the pandemic. Powell also called on the US Congress to consider and approve a new package of assistance to the US economy, which will go to support those industries that have suffered the most from the pandemic.

In principle, Powell's speech fairly accurately reflects our own opinion. We have repeatedly stated that the most important thing for America is the confrontation with the "coronavirus". Donald Trump failed to fight the epidemic, perhaps Biden will be able to cope with it. In any case, the approach needs to be changed, as 40-45 thousand new cases of the disease continue to be recorded daily in the United States.

Jerome Powell's colleague Andrew Bailey also made an interesting statement. The head of the Bank of England said that in the near future, the regulator is not going to resort to the introduction of negative rates, although this topic has been discussed by traders and economists for several months. Recall that many market participants believe that sooner or later the Bank of England will have to resort to this step since the economy fell by a record 20% in the second quarter, and the risks of the UK leaving the EU without a "deal" are growing every day. Moreover, thanks to Boris Johnson and his new bill "on the national market of Great Britain", the chances of a quarrel with the alliance are also growing, which will undoubtedly affect the British economy. Thus, many traders are waiting for new stimulating steps from the BA. They are equally waiting for a reduction in the key rate and an expansion of the quantitative stimulus program. Thus, Andrew Bailey refuted traders' expectations for the rate in the near future. "It would be a mortal sin to say that we have a tool that we can't put into practice," the BA chief said. Bailey also added that the regulator's statement following the September meeting was only intended to make sure that banks are ready to switch to negative rates.

Meanwhile, the most famous American publication the Washington Post reports that during the reign of Donald Trump, the "prestige" of the United States fell. Although the President regularly declares in his interviews that he has returned America to its "former greatness", practice shows that the opposite is more likely the case. A study conducted this summer shows that the attitude of countries such as France, Canada, Japan, Australia, France and other "first players" of our world has fallen to the lowest level in the last 20 years. The approval rating, therefore, is 34%, although in 2016 it was less than 52%. 86% of respondents said that America has completely lost the fight against the epidemic. Further, the biggest reason for the unpopularity of the United States is called Donald Trump. It should also be noted that all the leaders of the "Big Eight" scored more approval ratings than Trump.

As for the near-term outlook for the pound/dollar pair, it is likely to remain downward. Too many negative things are happening in the Foggy Albion right now. In the United States, as we have repeatedly noted, there are also enough problems, however, the UK managed to "surpass" America. At the same time, almost all the problems in Britain are "short-playing" in nature. In other words, they may start to have an impact (or they already do) on the economy in the very near future. Thus, the outlook for the pound remains even bleaker than for the US dollar. However, both of these currencies are still absolute outsiders in 2020. From a technical point of view, the downward trend resumed after a minimal upward correction. Bulls finally left the market as the pound has been rising since March 20. Further, we have repeatedly said that its growth cannot be called fully justified.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 141 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Wednesday, September 23, thus, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2593 and 1.2876. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top signals the beginning of an upward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2695

S2 – 1.2634

S3 – 1.2573

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2756

R2 – 1.2817

R3 – 1.2878

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair resumed a strong downward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to keep open short positions with targets of 1.2695 and 1.2634 as long as the Heiken Ashi indicator is directed downward. It is recommended to trade the pair for an increase with targets of 1.2939 and 1.3000 if the price returns to the area above the moving average line.

Forex analysis 23 Sep 2020, 00:59 UTC+00
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4 Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on September 23. COT report. Andrew Bailey failed to affect the markets with his optimism
Foreign exchange market participants did not believe the governor of the Bank of England and still believe that the...
GBP/USD 1H The GBP/USD pair continued to trade with a downward bias on September 22. A new descending channel appeared, within which trading is taking place at this time. Thus, after pausing for about a week, bears began to put pressure on the pound/dollar pair again. We saw an expressive rebound from the Kijun-sen line yesterday, which increases the likelihood of the pair's decline. The bulls have completely released the initiative from their hands, due to the UK's fundamental...

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD pair continued to trade with a downward bias on September 22. A new descending channel appeared, within which trading is taking place at this time. Thus, after pausing for about a week, bears began to put pressure on the pound/dollar pair again. We saw an expressive rebound from the Kijun-sen line yesterday, which increases the likelihood of the pair's decline. The bulls have completely released the initiative from their hands, due to the UK's fundamental background. But more on that below. Traders will only get a chance of a small upward movement if they manage to gain a foothold above the descending channel.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels are directed downward on the 15-minute timeframe, which fully corresponds to the pair's current trend. The new Commitments of Traders (COT) report for the British pound, which came out last Friday, was very expressive. The previous report shows that professional traders became more bullish despite the fact that the British currency fell 700 points in price. The new COT report turned out to be much more logical. Non-commercial traders closed 4,500 Buy-contracts (longs) and opened 7,000 Sell-contracts (shorts) from September 9 to 15. Thus, the net position for the "non-commercial" category of traders decreased by 11,500 contracts at once. This is very significant, since this group has 81,000 contracts. Therefore, this time the data of the COT report coincides with the nature of trading in the foreign exchange market. Commercial traders were even more interesting, as they closed 37,000 Buy-contracts and 45,000 Sell-contracts in just a week. This suggests that many large players are currently not interested in the pound as an investment currency. The future of the UK and its economy is so uncertain that traders are not interested in buying or selling. Commercial traders are hedgers and, judging by the COT report, they simply switch to other currencies rather than use the pound in their accounts. The new COT report, to be released this Friday, may show minor changes, however, the sentiment of non-commercial traders is likely to become even more bearish.

The fundamental background for the pound/dollar pair was fairly neutral on Tuesday, despite the speeches of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. The speeches were interesting, but they didn't really influence the general trend. Bailey tried to convince the markets that the British central bank is not going to apply negative rates in the near future, but this still did not save the pound sterling from new short positions. On Wednesday, traders are advised to pay attention to the indices of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors in the UK, as traders traditionally react to these reports more readily than to European or American ones. However, no major changes are expected in these figures. Therefore, if there are no surprises, then it is unlikely that traders will work out these numbers.

We have two trading ideas for September 23:

1) Buyers have let go of the initiative and now they have to work hard enough to get it back. We can talk about long positions on the British currency, but first the price should settle above the descending channel with the first target at the resistance level of 1.3020. However, given the fundamental background and the general mood of market participants, it is unlikely for the trend to change to an upward one in the near future. Take Profit in this case will be about 120 points.

2) On the other hand, sellers can only trade down at this time. The nearest targets are support levels 1.2667 and 1.2558. It is best to sell the pair from the upper area of the descending channel, however, to do this, the quotes should rise in that area. Price rebounds from the Kijun-sen line (1.2857) or the upper channel line can be used to open new positions. Take Profit in this case can range from 50 to 170 points.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Forex analysis 23 Sep 2020, 01:43 UTC+00
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5 Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on September 23? Getting ready for Wednesday session
Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair Instead of a normal correction, the EUR/USD pair continued to move down on Tuesday,...
Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair Instead of a normal correction, the EUR/USD pair continued to move down on Tuesday, September 22, and by the end of the day it reached the lower boundary of the horizontal channel at 1.1700-1.1900. The price has reached the extreme lower point of the horizontal channel, below which it will be possible to count on the resumption of the downward movement. True, it has not yet been possible to overcome this line. Thus, it is quite possible that a rebound...

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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Instead of a normal correction, the EUR/USD pair continued to move down on Tuesday, September 22, and by the end of the day it reached the lower boundary of the horizontal channel at 1.1700-1.1900. The price has reached the extreme lower point of the horizontal channel, below which it will be possible to count on the resumption of the downward movement. True, it has not yet been possible to overcome this line. Thus, it is quite possible that a rebound will follow, the euro/dollar pair will start a new round of upward movement, and therefore, the relevance of the horizontal channel will be preserved. We mentioned in our morning review that it is more convenient to consider buying the pair in the lower area of the horizontal channel. However, we have already pointed out more than once that no trend lines or channels within the 1.17-1.19 range have appeared in recent days, so any signals from the MACD are weak and unconfirmed. Today the price turned down very quickly, and the MACD indicator, due to the fact that it wasn't near the 0 mark, failed to react to the completion of the upward movement in time. We generally advise novice traders to not consider selling the currency pair today. And, as you can see, this was very difficult to implement, since both sell signals from the MACD appeared very late, again because the indicator did not have time to discharge enough and return to the zero mark. Therefore, it was extremely difficult to trade today.

The fundamental background was quite interesting on Tuesday, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made a speech in the US Congress, and the text of his speech was publicized much earlier than the speech itself. Powell attaches great importance to the coronavirus pandemic, the government's fight against it, and he connects the prospects of the American economy with its outcome. In other words, Powell believes that the US economy will not be able to fully recover without defeating the epidemic. In addition, Powell called on the US Congress to approve a new stimulus package, in other words, new cash injections into the economy, which Democrats and Republicans are still fighting over.

Powell will deliver another speech in the US Congress on Wednesday, September 23, but this time in front of a different committee. Powell speaks to Congress twice a year, so we can confidently say that both texts of his speech are the same. Thus, there is no point in expecting any new information tomorrow. Today markets have barely noticed his speech. Most likely it will be the same tomorrow. In addition, the European Union and America will release business activity indices in the manufacturing and services sectors, which may affect the movement of the euro/dollar pair only if they go below 50.0 (below this mark it is believed that a decline has begun in one area or another ). Judging by experts forecasts, no field in any country will go below 50.0.

Possible scenarios for September 23:

1) Novice traders are still not recommended to place buy positions at this time, since there isn't a single signal. Although, it is more convenient to consider buy orders from the lower area of the 1.17-1.19 horizontal channel. Especially after the pair fell by around 170 points and reached the lower channel line. Thus, at a minimum, to open buy positions for the pair, you need to wait for the price to rebound from the 1.1700 level. And even in this case, you are still advised not to forget about the Stop Loss level.

2) Selling does not seem appropriate at all at this time, since the pair has already gone down 170 points and is currently trading near the lower border of the horizontal channel. Therefore, novice traders are recommended either to wait for the price to settle below the horizontal channel and, accordingly, for a new downward trend to appear, or you can wait for quotes to return to the upper area of the channel, from where you can again trade for a fall.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (10,20,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

Forex analysis 22 Sep 2020, 21:22 UTC+00
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6 Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade GBP/USD on September 23? Getting ready for Wednesday session
Hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair Trading is about to end at this time and it is quite difficult for the GBP/USD pair....
Hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair Trading is about to end at this time and it is quite difficult for the GBP/USD pair. The MACD indicator generated two sell signals here, each of which was weak and unconfirmed. The downward trend line only appeared in the evening, and was not available during the day. Thus, the downward trend for the pound/dollar pair has been extended and, one might even say, has intensified, since now traders have a trend line at their disposal. We advised not to...

Hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair

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Trading is about to end at this time and it is quite difficult for the GBP/USD pair. The MACD indicator generated two sell signals here, each of which was weak and unconfirmed. The downward trend line only appeared in the evening, and was not available during the day. Thus, the downward trend for the pound/dollar pair has been extended and, one might even say, has intensified, since now traders have a trend line at their disposal. We advised not to trade up in the morning article, and also recommended waiting for the price to settle below 1.2774, which is the previous local low. At the moment, we can conclude that this level has been overcome, which means that the path for a long term decline is open for traders. New targets for trading will appear tomorrow, but for now the closest one is the support level of 1.2659.

The fundamental background is still the main reason why the pound's quotes are falling in September. Moreover, speeches from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey do not affect the mood at the moment. And neither did the central bank meetings last week. Traders are only fixated on events related to Brexit and the future relationship between the UK and the European Union. The pound started to fall when it was announced that two regular rounds of negotiations with Brussels regarding a free trade agreement have both ended in failure. And the pound also continued to move down when Prime Minister Boris Johnson's resonant bill was announced, this bill allows the UK government to violate its agreement with the EU on the Northern Ireland border. These two factors pull down the pair. Bailey delivered a speech today, but he only said one thing. Negative rates will not be introduced in the near future, although the Bank of England allows their use in the future. This is positive news for the pound, as we remind novice traders that any rate cut or expansion of the quantitative stimulus program is a bearish factor for the currency, the central bank of which is doing this. Therefore, one might say that Bailey even managed to please some buyers of the pound. But they could not take advantage of the given chances. Indexes of business activity in the service and manufacturing sectors will be published tomorrow in the UK and the United States, which are currently not important. You shouldn't skip them, however, they are unlikely to be followed by a serious market reaction.

Possible scenarios for September 23:

1) We still do not recommend buying the pound/dollar pair, since a strong downward trend has currently appeared. We believe that quotes will continue to decline in the near future, therefore, to be able to open long positions, you should wait until the trend changes to an upward one. That is when the price settles above the new descending trend line. This is unlikely to happen in the next few hours, so we recommend waiting at least in the morning.

2) Sell positions, from our point of view, are much more convenient now. They can be kept open until the MACD indicator reverses to the upside and then you can aim for the support level of 1.2659, if novice traders still entered the market using one of today's MACD signals. In general, as long as the downward trend line remains relevant, you are still advised to trade for a fall. It is recommended to study the possibilities of opening new sell orders tomorrow morning.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (10,20,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

Forex analysis 22 Sep 2020, 21:22 UTC+00
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7 GBP/USD. Fight in the House of Commons, tightening quarantine in Britain and strengthening the greenback
The pound continues to plunge down. After a short rise, the GBP/USD pair fell to the bottom of the 27th figure,...
The pound continues to plunge down. After a short rise, the GBP/USD pair fell to the bottom of the 27th figure, opening new price horizons for itself. The pair traded in the 1.24-1.27 range throughout July, after which it went up against the background of a weakening dollar and optimism about negotiations on the Brexit trade deal. At the moment, we are observing a mirror situation: the greenback is strengthening throughout the market, and hopes for a deal are dwindling every day, amid...

The pound continues to plunge down. After a short rise, the GBP/USD pair fell to the bottom of the 27th figure, opening new price horizons for itself. The pair traded in the 1.24-1.27 range throughout July, after which it went up against the background of a weakening dollar and optimism about negotiations on the Brexit trade deal. At the moment, we are observing a mirror situation: the greenback is strengthening throughout the market, and hopes for a deal are dwindling every day, amid consideration by the House of Commons of the resonant draft UK Internal Market Bill. The threat of a second wave of the coronavirus epidemic in Great Britain organically complements the negative fundamental picture for the pound, which is why it is forced to retreat throughout the market.

Let's start with the political battles within the walls of the British Parliament, where a scandalous bill is being considered for the second week, which, in fact, crosses out some of the provisions of the Brexit deal. Prime Minister Boris Johnson continues to insist that this law will ensure the integrity of the UK internal market after the end of the transition. However, according to European and many British politicians, this legislative initiative violates the norms of international law. Just today, the German Minister for European Affairs Michael Roth made a rather harsh statement, saying that the Brits should "stop playing games in negotiations with Brussels."

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But despite the powerful political confrontation, the resonant bill passed the first reading - 340 deputies of the Lower House of Parliament voted for it. A second vote is expected this week. During the discussion of the amendments, Johnson agreed to the amendments, according to which the "last word" in the issue of changing the Brexit deal will remain with the House of Commons, and not with the government. On the one hand, this is a compromise, but on the other hand, it does not change anything in the context of relations with Brussels. As the former British Prime Minister Theresa May noted, "a violation of international obligations will still remain a violation of international obligations, regardless of whether it is allowed by the prime minister or Parliament." A similar position is voiced by EU representatives, threatening to withdraw from the negotiation process to conclude a deal if the law is still adopted.

The pound was afloat for some time due to the notorious position of the House of Lords. Most peers do not support Conservative initiatives, especially anti-European ones. But at the end of last week, representatives of the British government recalled the existence of the Salisbury Convention, according to which members of the House of Lords should "without delay pass bills aimed at implementing the election program of the winning party or coalition." According to Johnson, his legislative initiative falls within the scope of this convention. In addition, take note that the Upper House of the British Parliament is not an appellate instance that can overturn or block certain bills. Peers can express their opinions in the form of amendments, which can later be rejected by members of the Lower House.

In other words, GBP/USD buyers have lost an important advantage of a fundamental nature that kept the pair at the borders of the 30th figure. If the second vote is in favor of the controversial bill, the pound will accelerate its decline.

In addition, details of tightening quarantine restrictions in the UK have become known today. Ahead of which, Johnson has ruled out a second nationwide lockdown, but investors were not pleased with the latest measures either. In particular, now all pubs, bars, restaurants and other similar establishments must close no later than 22:00. The list of places where it is necessary to wear masks will also be expanded, and compliance with the rules will be stricter - even the military will be involved in helping the police. It is obvious that the tightening of quarantine will negatively affect the recovery process of the economy. First of all, the labor market will suffer, consumer activity will decrease, and the service sector, which has just begun to show signs of life, will be under attack.

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To be fair, the GBP/USD pair is decreasing not only due to the weakening of the pound, but also due to the general strengthening of the dollar. The greenback is in high demand amid a surge in anti-risk sentiment - a loud scandal with FinCEN, as well as coronavirus anti-records make investors nervous. In addition, US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin just announced that the White House is working with Congress representatives on the next program to help the economy. This rhetoric provided additional support for the greenback.

All this suggests that the downward dynamics will continue for the GBP/USD pair. At the moment, bears are testing the lower border of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart, which corresponds to the 1.2730 level. If sellers overcome this support level (which I personally have no doubt about), then they will open their way to the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator - to the 1.2630 level. Short positions are a priority both in the short and (even more so) in the medium term.

Forex analysis 22 Sep 2020, 21:22 UTC+00
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8 September 22, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
Conservative traders are advised to wait for bullish pullback towards 1.3130-1.3150 (the backside of the broken...
Intermediate-term technical outlook for the GBP/USD pair has remained bullish since bullish persistence was achieved above 1.2780 (Depicted Key-Level) on the H4 Charts. On the other hand, the GBPUSD pair looked overbought after such a quick bullish movement while approaching the price level of 1.3475. That's why, short-term bearish reversal was expected especially after bearish persistence was achieved below the key-level level of 1.3300. A quick bearish decline took place towards...

analytics5f6a13f60b86d.jpg

Intermediate-term technical outlook for the GBP/USD pair has remained bullish since bullish persistence was achieved above 1.2780 (Depicted Key-Level) on the H4 Charts.

On the other hand, the GBPUSD pair looked overbought after such a quick bullish movement while approaching the price level of 1.3475.

That's why, short-term bearish reversal was expected especially after bearish persistence was achieved below the key-level level of 1.3300.

A quick bearish decline took place towards 1.2900 then 1.2825 where some bullish recovery was recently expressed.

The price zone of 1.3130-1.3150 (the backside of the broken trend) remains an Intraday Key-Zone to offer bearish pressure if retested again.

The GBPUSD pair is showing lack of sufficient bullish momentum to pursue above the price level of 1.3000.

That's why, bearish persistence below 1.3000 enabled further bearish decline initially towards 1.2800 where another episode of bullish recovery may be executed.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders are advised to wait for bullish pullback towards 1.3130-1.3150 (the backside of the broken trend) for a valid SELL Entry.

Initial T/p level is to be located around 1.3050 and 1.2900 if sufficient bearish pressure is maintained.

On the other hand, bullish persistence above 1.3200 invalidates this trading scenario.

Forex analysis 22 Sep 2020, 15:11 UTC+00
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9 Evening review- 2 for EURUSD from 22.09
EURUSD, daily. So, it seems that the euro has broken down (but this is inaccurate). How about targets down? The move...
EURUSD, daily. So, it seems that the euro has broken down (but this is inaccurate). How about targets down? The move looks corrective to the previous strong rally. The fall might stop near the 100-day moving average - or else at 1.1460 If the fall continues, we take everything or part of the positions at 1.1460. In the event of a reversal to the upside, buy from 1.1875.

analytics5f6a730179ba7.jpg

EURUSD, daily.

So, it seems that the euro has broken down (but this is inaccurate).

How about targets down?

The move looks corrective to the previous strong rally.

The fall might stop near the 100-day moving average - or else at 1.1460

If the fall continues, we take everything or part of the positions at 1.1460.

In the event of a reversal to the upside, buy from 1.1875.

Forex analysis 22 Sep 2020, 21:24 UTC+00
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10 September 22, 2020 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
The price zone around 1.1975-1.2000 ( upper limit of the technical channel ) stood as a strong SUPPLY-Zone to offer...
The EURUSD pair has failed to maintain enough bearish momentum below 1.1150 (consolidation range lower zone) to enhance further bearish decline. Instead, bullish breakout above 1.1380-1.1400 has lead to a quick bullish spike directly towards 1.1700 which failed to offer sufficient bearish pressure. Bullish persistence above 1.1700-1.1760 favored further bullish advancement towards 1.1975 where some considerable bearish rejection has been demonstrated. The price zone around...

analytics5f6a0dec9d0bf.jpg

The EURUSD pair has failed to maintain enough bearish momentum below 1.1150 (consolidation range lower zone) to enhance further bearish decline.

Instead, bullish breakout above 1.1380-1.1400 has lead to a quick bullish spike directly towards 1.1700 which failed to offer sufficient bearish pressure.

Bullish persistence above 1.1700-1.1760 favored further bullish advancement towards 1.1975 where some considerable bearish rejection has been demonstrated.

The price zone around 1.1975-1.2000 ( upper limit of the technical channel ) stood as a strong SUPPLY-Zone to offer bearish reversal.

Conservative traders should be considering the recent bearish closure below 1.1700 - 1.1750 as this indicates lack of bullish momentum and enhances further bearish decline initially towards 1.1645 and 1.1600.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders should consider the current bearish persistence below 1.1750 as an indicator for lack of bearish momentum for a valid SELL Entry.

T/P levels to be located around 1.1645, 1.1600 and 1.1500 while S/L to be placed above 1.1800 to minimize the associated risk.

Forex analysis 22 Sep 2020, 15:02 UTC+00
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