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1 EUR / USD: Should I be afraid of the parliamentary elections in Spain?
The euro/dollar pair has once again demonstrated a southern impulse. Now, the single currency is under pressure not...
The euro/dollar pair has once again demonstrated a southern impulse. However, yesterday's correction did not continue as the bears returned the price to the area of the 12th figure. Such price dynamics are fully justified because the single currency is now under pressure not only from the economic problems of the eurozone but also from political uncertainty in Spain. However, Spanish politicians are the only ones that make traders nervous. In France, the protests of the "yellow vests" do...

The euro/dollar pair has once again demonstrated a southern impulse. However, yesterday's correction did not continue as the bears returned the price to the area of the 12th figure. Such price dynamics are fully justified because the single currency is now under pressure not only from the economic problems of the eurozone but also from political uncertainty in Spain.

However, Spanish politicians are the only ones that make traders nervous. In France, the protests of the "yellow vests" do not subside and in Italy, the trade unions recently protested, where representatives of the association of industrialists joined them. Experts warn that such sentiments on the eve of the elections to the European Parliament, which will be held in three months, are a wake-up signal to the markets. The popularity of populist and nationalist political forces is growing in the EU countries, so the results of the general European elections may unpleasantly surprise.

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According to preliminary forecasts, there will be more groups in the European Parliament, while representatives of large factions will not be able to repeat their previous results. This is fraught with the fact that the European Parliament will be fragmented, and coalitions will be created with great difficulty. In addition, according to a number of political scientists, Eurosceptics will block many initiatives, primarily in the sphere of migration legislation.

In this context, the latest German local elections look significant, which were held last fall. The results of the plebiscite showed that electoral preferences are changing in Germany and these changes are not in favor of European integration. The main sensation of the last election was the incredible success of the ultra-right. For four years, they strengthened their positions tenfold and were able to get into parliament, reflecting the prevailing attitudes in society.

In other words, factors such as the popularization of ultra-right political forces, the intensification of anti-immigration rhetoric and the increasing role of nationalist ideas weigh on the prospects for the development of the European Union. Similar trends can be reflected in the outcome of the pan-European elections. This fact puts pressure on the single currency, especially against the background of a slowdown in the key indicators of the eurozone and softening the rhetoric of the ECB.

Yet, Spain has become the catalyst for today's price decline of EUR/USD pair. There will be extraordinary parliamentary elections again for the third time in a row over the past four years. The deputies could not find a compromise on the proposed budget, forcing the prime minister to announce early elections. Thus, on April 28, the Spaniards will not only appreciate the work of the socialist government but also change the political format of the parliament - at least, many local experts are sure of it.

It should be noted here that the events in Spain should not be viewed only in a negative context. Despite the fact that any extraordinary elections are certainly stressful for the markets, their results can positively affect the single currency. The fact is that literally the other day there was a mass protest in Madrid, which was attended by tens of thousands of local residents. They protested against the country's Social Democratic Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, who in their opinion, behaves "too liberally" in relation to the Catalan government and supporters of the separation of the region from Spain. In other words, the protesters spoke in favor of the unity of the country, expressing protest to the current government and parliament (until March 5), if pro-European political forces come to power (in particular, representatives of the Citizens Party) following the spring elections.

Despite such possible prospects, the market reacted negatively to today's events in Spain. Traders are focused on current events while long-term projections have little effect on the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair. Investors are concerned about the growing political uncertainty in the eurozone countries, as well as, the slowdown of the EU economy and vague prospects for Brexit.

In addition, the likelihood of a resumption of the trade war between the United States and China has increased again despite the ongoing negotiation process. According to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, trade negotiations will be resumed with their next round to be held next week in Washington. Representatives of the negotiating group avoid any specifics in their comments. The essence of their statements comes down to the fact that they have made some progress, although there is still a lot of work to be done. Such veiled statements alarm traders, given the fact that the "deadline" on March 1 is just around the corner.

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Thus, the single currency is still not strong enough to recover. In such circumstances, any more or less large-scale correctional growth of EUR/USD pair should be considered as an occasion to open short positions. The nearest southern target is 1.1230, which is the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily and weekly charts. If the bears consolidate below this support level, they will open the way to the level of 1,1100, which is the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands but on the monthly chart.

Forex analysis 15 Feb 2019, 14:38 UTC+00
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2 EUR / USD plan for the US session on February 15. Eurozone data ignored by the market
The euro remains under pressure and buyers are not in a hurry to return to the market amid weak statistics on the...
To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need: The euro remains under pressure and buyers are not in a hurry to return to the market amid weak statistics on the balance of foreign trade balance in the eurozone. The technical picture has not changed. Euro buyers still need a breakthrough and consolidation above the middle of the side channel at 1.1299, which will lead to an increase in long positions with the update of the upper limit of 1.1339, where I recommend taking profits. The...

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The euro remains under pressure and buyers are not in a hurry to return to the market amid weak statistics on the balance of foreign trade balance in the eurozone. The technical picture has not changed. Euro buyers still need a breakthrough and consolidation above the middle of the side channel at 1.1299, which will lead to an increase in long positions with the update of the upper limit of 1.1339, where I recommend taking profits. The main target will be a maximum of 1.1388. Larger growth will occur in the event that data on the US will again disappoint investors, same as yesterday. In the case of EUR / USD decline in the second half of the day, it is best to return to long positions on a false breakdown around 1.1260 or on a rebound from the new monthly minimum of 1.1215.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Bears can return to the market after the formation of a false breakdown in the area of resistance at 1.1299. In the afternoon, the main task will be a breakthrough of support at 1.1260, below which a large sale will lead to testing of 1.1215 minimum and 1.1180, where I recommend fixing profits. Vendors may get some support after strong data on the American economy but there are some doubts that the reports will be better than expected. In the case of EUR / USD growth above the resistance of 1.1299, I recommend returning in short positions on a rebound from the maximum of 1.1339.

More in the video forecast for February 15

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates the possible formation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator is low, which does not give signals to enter the market.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

Forex analysis 15 Feb 2019, 13:06 UTC+00
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3 Euro flies into the abyss
EUR / USD quotes fell to a 3-month bottom
The disappointing statistics on US retail sales for December only temporarily stopped the bears in EUR / USD. The US economy slows down to 2% in the fourth quarter, according to JP Morgan. The Fed does not begin to raise the federal funds rate in 2019, as the derivatives market shows, but the eurozone looks so gloomy that it's fit to talk about reanimation QE. Against this background, the fall of the euro to 3-month lows against the US dollar looks logical. The main thing is that sellers do...

The disappointing statistics on US retail sales for December only temporarily stopped the bears in EUR / USD. The US economy slows down to 2% in the fourth quarter, according to JP Morgan. The Fed does not begin to raise the federal funds rate in 2019, as the derivatives market shows, but the eurozone looks so gloomy that it's fit to talk about reanimation QE. Against this background, the fall of the euro to 3-month lows against the US dollar looks logical. The main thing is that sellers do not overdo it.

In the fourth quarter, German GDP almost fell into a technical recession, while European GDP grew by a modest 0.2% q / q. The problems of German industry, weak domestic and external demand are forcing the economy of the currency bloc to slow down. Many of the difficulties are most likely temporary. If the trade wars stop, then the export of the Old World will be able to rise from its knees, but who can guarantee that this will happen? That having dealt with China, Donald Trump will not take up the EU by increasing duties on European cars? But there is also Brexit and the related gap in economic ties with an important trading partner. Italy with its eurosceptics. The euro looks so weak that it is unable to resist even the deprived of the main trumps of the US dollar.

The "American" no longer expects aggressive monetary restriction and 3% GDP growth. About half of the hundreds of Reuters experts predict that the Fed has completed a cycle of tightening monetary policy, the rest believe that the central bank will raise the rate only once. Derivatives market gives only 2% probability of such an outcome. For comparison, the chances of lowering the rate are estimated at 12.5%. At the same time, statistics on the States, with the exception, perhaps, of retail sales, does not disappoint at all, and the divergence in the dynamics of economic surprise indexes creates a solid foundation for the downward trend in EUR / USD.

Dynamics of US economic indexes and eurozone surprises

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Obviously, against the background of decent data, the fall in the probability of the Fed normalization cycle continuing is entirely connected with the "pigeon" rhetoric of its representatives. In this regard, the publication of the minutes of the January meeting of the FOMC seems to be a test for the US dollar. However, the euro will have to go through the fire and copper pipes: a day later, on February 21, the statistics on business activity and the minutes of the meeting of the Governing Council will be released. I recall that during the press conference on its results, Mario Draghi spoke about the LTRO, which was the reason for the sales of the euro.

Equally important are the results of trade negotiations between the United States and China. Should the conflict escalate, capital flight to safe havens will accelerate the fall of EUR / USD. Only the presence of a breakthrough will allow the bulls to go to the counter.

Technically, bears on the main currency pair are making titanic efforts to bring quotes outside the trading range of 1.1265-1.1485. If they succeed, the risks of target realization by 127.2% on the "Butterfly" pattern will increase.

EUR / USD, the daily chart

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Forex analysis 15 Feb 2019, 13:58 UTC+00
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4 Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 15, 2019
The NZD/USD pair breached resistance which had turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705
Overview: The NZD/USD pair breached resistance which had turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705 this week. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio, which is expected to act as major support today. The RSI is considered to be overbought, because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Besides, note that the pivot point is seen at the point of 0.6882. This suggests that the pair will...

analytics5c66997f60649.png

Overview:

The NZD/USD pair breached resistance which had turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705 this week. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio, which is expected to act as major support today. The RSI is considered to be overbought, because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Besides, note that the pivot point is seen at the point of 0.6882. This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.6882 and further to the level of 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. However, if there is a breakout at the support level of 0.6705, this scenario may become invalidated.

Forex analysis 15 Feb 2019, 09:51 UTC+00
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5 Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for February 15, 2019
For the bullish side to regain dominance, bullish breakout above 1.2920 (38.2% Fibonacci) should be re-established...
On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located. Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 28 when the GBP/USD pair was almost approaching the supply level of 1.3240. That's when the current bearish pullback was initiated around slightly lower price levels near 1.3215 (around the depicted supply levels in RED). ...

analytics5c66ac5bb47a8.png

On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 28 when the GBP/USD pair was almost approaching the supply level of 1.3240.

That's when the current bearish pullback was initiated around slightly lower price levels near 1.3215 (around the depicted supply levels in RED).

This was followed by a bearish engulfing daily candlestick on January 29. Thus, the GBP/USD pair lost its bullish persistence above 1.3155 as a result.

However, lack of bullish demand was recently being demonstrated on the recent few daily candlesticks.

Hence, the short-term scenario turned bearish towards 1.2820-1.2800 where (50% Fibonacci level) as well as a previous prominent top are located (Highlighted in BLUE) where price action should be watched cautiously.

For the bullish side to regain dominance, bullish breakout above 1.2920 (38.2% Fibonacci) should be re-established early (Low probability).

On the other hand, bearish breakdown below 1.2770 enhances further bearish decline towards the price zone of 1.2690-1.2700 where significant bullish demand will probably be demonstrated.

Forex analysis 15 Feb 2019, 11:20 UTC+00
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6 February 15, 2019: The EUR/USD pair cannot hold within its daily movement channel.
Intraday traders can look for a counter-trend BUY entry around the current price levels (1.1285) (lower limit of the...
Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency within the depicted bearish Channel (In RED). On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated. Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish...

analytics5c66a9deebe67.png

Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency within the depicted bearish Channel (In RED).

On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430 few times so far.

The EUR/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum since January 31 when a bearish engulfing candlestick was demonstrated around 1.1514 where another descending high was established then.

On February 5, a bearish daily candlestick closure below 1.1420 terminated the recent bullish recovery.

This allowed the current bearish movement to occur towards 1.1300-1.1270 where the lower limit of the depicted DAILY channel comes to meet the pair.

The EUR/USD pair is failing to hold within its daily channel with early signs of bullish weakness being manifested on the chart.

On the other hand, a bearish flag pattern may be confirmed if bearish persistence below 1.1250 is achieved on the daily-chart basis. Pattern target is projected towards 1.1000.

Trade Recommendations:

Intraday traders can look for a counter-trend BUY entry around the current price levels (1.1285) (lower limit of the depicted movement channel).

TIGHT Stop Loss to be located below 1.1240 while T/P level to be located around 1.1350 and 1.1420.

Forex analysis 15 Feb 2019, 11:03 UTC+00
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7 Brexit divided Wall Street into two camps: Goldman is waiting for a deal while JPMorgan is not
The divergence of views of the two most influential banks on Wall Street shows how diligent investors in reading the...
As the Brexit crisis deepens, the two giants of Wall Street have completely different views on the final result. Goldman Sachs sees a 50 percent probability of a ratified deal while JP Morgan talks about the postponement. If British Prime Minister Theresa May cannot agree on a Brexit deal with Parliament, she will have to decide whether to put Brexit on hold or plunge the world's fifth largest economy into chaos. Goldman Sachs with a probability of 50 percent believes that May deal...

As the Brexit crisis deepens, the two giants of Wall Street have completely different views on the final result. Goldman Sachs sees a 50 percent probability of a ratified deal while JP Morgan talks about the postponement. If British Prime Minister Theresa May cannot agree on a Brexit deal with Parliament, she will have to decide whether to put Brexit on hold or plunge the world's fifth largest economy into chaos.

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Goldman Sachs with a probability of 50 percent believes that May deal will be ratified. Additionally, lawmakers will ultimately block the exit without a deal, if necessary. The probability of exit without a deal is 15 percent and the total cancellation of Brexit is about 35 percent. "There is a majority in the House of Commons who wants to avoid Brexit" without a deal ", but there is no majority in the House of Commons ready to support the second referendum, at least at this stage," noted Goldman.

JPMorgan believes that May will seek to extend the deadline for approval until March 29. "We still believe that it is likely for the Prime Minister, instead of allowing unsuccessful voting and subsequent ministerial resignations, will try to act proactively and will seek to extend the deadlines," the company noted. The divergence of views of the two most influential banks on Wall Street shows how diligent investors in reading the maze of charts on the eve of Brexit, which is the most significant political and economic movement of the United Kingdom since the Second World War. Recall that most large banks incorrectly predicted the results of the 2016 referendum.

News 15 Feb 2019, 13:06 UTC+00
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8 GBP / USD plan for the American session on February 15. Pound regained a number of positions after good retail sales
Pound regained a number of positions after good retail sales data, which turned out to be better than economists'...
To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need: Pound regained a number of positions after good retail sales data, which turned out to be better than economists' forecasts. However, the technical picture remained unchanged. At the moment, bulls need to return to the resistance of 1.2826 and only a higher fixation will lead to a larger upward correction in the area of 1.2880 and 1.2944, where I recommend to fix profits. With the scenario of GBP/USD decline in the second half of the...

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Pound regained a number of positions after good retail sales data, which turned out to be better than economists' forecasts. However, the technical picture remained unchanged. At the moment, bulls need to return to the resistance of 1.2826 and only a higher fixation will lead to a larger upward correction in the area of 1.2880 and 1.2944, where I recommend to fix profits. With the scenario of GBP/USD decline in the second half of the day, you can look at long positions at a low of this week around 1.2769 or buy a pound immediately for a rebound from a new low of 1.2723.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

While the trade is conducted below 1.2826, the pressure on the pound will continue and the main purpose of the bears will be to break the week low of 1.2769. We can expect sellers to return to the market on levels lower than this, which will lead to an update of the area 1.2723 and 1.2672, where I recommend fixing profits. In the case of good news from Theresa May and Brexit regarding the timing of the postponement of the UK exit from the EU, the demand for the pound may return. In this scenario, you can sell on a rebound from a maximum of 1.2880 or 1.2944.

More in the video forecast for February 15

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates the possible formation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator is low, which does not give signals to enter the market.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

Forex analysis 15 Feb 2019, 13:08 UTC+00
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9 Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 15, 2019
The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.0003. Today, the first support level is currently seen...
Overview: The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.0003. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 1.0003, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9982, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between...

analytics5c669807a2ec1.png

Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.0003. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 1.0003, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9982, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 1.0003 and 1.0067. So, the support stands at 1.0003, while daily resistance is found at 1.0067. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0003. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.0003 with the first target at the level of 1.0067; and continue towards 1.0103 and 1.0140. However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0030 today, the market will decline further to 0.9908.

Forex analysis 15 Feb 2019, 09:45 UTC+00
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10 BITCOIN Analysis for February 15, 2019
Bitcoin is trading above $3,600, making correctional moves for a few days. Though the bias is still bullish despite a...
Bitcoin is currently trading above $3,600 with the view of a further climb. The price is breaking above the trend line resistance. The price is currently being contained by the Kumo Cloud resistance and held by the dynamic levels like 20 EMA, Tenkan, and Kijun line as support. According to the MACD, the price has not formed any strong Bullish Divergence evidence yet. However, being above $3,500-600 indicates that the bulls are ready to push the price higher in the coming days. As the price...

Bitcoin is currently trading above $3,600 with the view of a further climb. The price is breaking above the trend line resistance. The price is currently being contained by the Kumo Cloud resistance and held by the dynamic levels like 20 EMA, Tenkan, and Kijun line as support. According to the MACD, the price has not formed any strong Bullish Divergence evidence yet. However, being above $3,500-600 indicates that the bulls are ready to push the price higher in the coming days. As the price breaks above $3,650 with an intraday candle or bar, further bullish pressure is expected to continue in the coming days with a target at $3,750 and later towards $4,000.

SUPPORT: 3,000, 3,500, 3,600

RESISTANCE: 3,750, 4,000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Forex analysis 15 Feb 2019, 08:41 UTC+00
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