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1 Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - placement of trade orders (August 20)
Over the past trading day, the pound / dollar currency pair showed a low volatility of 68 points, as a result of...
Over the past trading day, the pound / dollar currency pair showed a low volatility of 68 points, as a result of having a sluggish fluctuation, but in the direction we need. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the theory of displacement of accumulation boundaries within the range of 1.2000 / 1.2150 is in the active phase, presumably working out the upper limit. Of course, it is too early to say that this shift is caused by the oversaturation of short positions, and...

Over the past trading day, the pound / dollar currency pair showed a low volatility of 68 points, as a result of having a sluggish fluctuation, but in the direction we need. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the theory of displacement of accumulation boundaries within the range of 1.2000 / 1.2150 is in the active phase, presumably working out the upper limit. Of course, it is too early to say that this shift is caused by the oversaturation of short positions, and the quote is trying to get closer to the psychological control level of 1.2000, but there are reasons for this.

As discussed in the previous review, traders continue to follow two tactics at once: work on accumulation ranges (aggressive method) and work on the breakdown of control values (conservative method). Each method has its own "highlight", and volatility, which is generally high, helps to implement these approaches in the work. Considering the trading chart in general terms (daily timeframe), we see that the 1.2150 level works on the principle of resistance, winding up the idea of how much the GBPUSD pair was not oversold. There are still more short positions, otherwise the "Correction" cycle did not keep us waiting so long. The global downward trend remains low, as well as the control point in the form of a psychological level of 1.2000 (+/- 30 p).

The news background of the past day was boring, as the economic calendar was, frankly, empty in terms of parsing Britain and the United States.

The information background was, on the contrary, more lively; Prime Minister Boris Johnson made his first public attempt to interact with Brussels regarding the revision of the agreement on the country's exit from the EU. Johnson sent a letter to the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, which refers to the revision of the "back-stop" item. According to the head of government, it is this item that stops the agreement in parliament, since the formation of tight borders between the two countries contradict the terms of the Belfast Agreement. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson insists that both sides should look for other ways to keep the border free from inspections and must commit themselves to create such mechanisms as much as possible, before the end of the transition period, that is, possibly, by the end of 2020. In turn, US President Donald Trump during a telephone conversation with Boris Johnson discussed the Brexit process and trade issues. The specifics of the conversation are missing, the only thing Mr. Trump said was that the discussion was excellent, and he was looking forward to meeting Johnson at the G7 summit in France.

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, the day is even more boring than yesterday, since there are no statistics for more than one country. Support to the market can be provided only by the information background and the upcoming minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee.

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Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the pressure from the side of short positions remains on the market and the quote has already returned to the area of 1.2080, where a periodic, mirror level of low importance was found earlier. Regarding the current fluctuation and development of the 1.2150 level, the theory of cluster boundary shift (1.2000 / 1.2150) is seen as a rather realistic scenario. Traders, in turn, steadily continue to follow the previously announced methods, where some ride on the current decline, considering the fixation of previously received profit in the values of 1.2080-1.2020. Others restrainedly wait for price fixing relative to the control points 1,2000 / 1,2200.

It is likely to assume that special attention is now focused on the coordinates of 1.2080, since it can be, though temporary, but support in the market. But in the event of its breakdown, the movement towards the psychological level of 1.2000 (+/- 30 p.) looks like a real picture of development.

Based on the above information, we derive trading recommendations:

- It is better to consider buying positions in terms of working out the mirror level of 1.2080, since the level is still of low importance. However, if you go down to the limits of 1.2020-1.2000, it can play in terms of stopping and working out the psychological significance. Wait for at least some stop before entering the market.

- Sell positions, if you already have, in terms of an aggressive approach to the value of 1.2080, partial exit with the stop loss moving to zero. The further movement is considered after fixing the price lower than 1.2075, with the prospect of a movement to 1.2020-1.2000. Conservative traders are out of the market, waiting for clear price fixation lower than 1.2000.

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Indicator analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators on all the main timeframes signal a further decline, which, in principle, reflects the current market background. If the temporary support is within 1.2080, indicators in the short term can temporarily jump, it is worth considering this point in the analysis.

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Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(August 20 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article)

The volatility of the current time is 55 points, which is pretty good for this time section. It is likely to assume that in the case of maintaining a downward mood and overcoming the level of 1.2080, we can see a temporary acceleration expressed in increasing volatility.

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Key levels

Resistance zones: 1.2150 **; 1.2350 **; 1.2430; 1.2500; 1.2620; 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 * 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1.3300

Support Areas: 1,2000; 1.1700; 1.1475 **

* Periodic level

** Range Level

*** The article is built on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment

Forex analysis 20 Aug 2019, 08:27 UTC+00
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2 Forecast for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on August 20th. The EU economy continues to slide into the abyss
The EU inflation report for July gives no reason for the joy of the euro bulls. Boris Johnson is trying to negotiate...
EUR/USD – 4H. As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair returned to the correction level of 100.0% (1.1107), rebound from it and turn in favor of the US dollar. As a result, on August 20, the fall of quotations can be continued in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% (1.1025). This fall has been brewing for a long time: bears are constantly attacking the pair, and bulls cannot find reasons and grounds for buying the euro. Now, the bulls showed weakness again and could...

EUR/USD – 4H.

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair returned to the correction level of 100.0% (1.1107), rebound from it and turn in favor of the US dollar. As a result, on August 20, the fall of quotations can be continued in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% (1.1025). This fall has been brewing for a long time: bears are constantly attacking the pair, and bulls cannot find reasons and grounds for buying the euro. Now, the bulls showed weakness again and could not take the pair above the level of 1.1107. Although there is a reason for such weakness of buyers – on Monday, the consumer price index for July in the European Union was released, which fell to 1.0% y/y and -0.5% m/m. as we all remember, the ECB set the inflation target of 2.0% y/y. It is clear that with yesterday's inflation report, there is no question of either 2% or stability. It seems that shortly, the European Central Bank will have to turn on the printing press, reduce rates, which will show the weakness of their monetary policy and further dissuade traders from buying the euro. So, it turns out that the maximum of the euro now and in the current conditions is a correction, which from time to time still take place. On Tuesday, the forex market will be content with a zero fundamental background. Nothing interesting for the euro/dollar pair today is reflected in the news calendar. Tomorrow will be the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed. But it will come out late in the evening, so that during the day, again, traders will sit on a "dry ration". Closing the EUR/USD rate above the Fibo level of 100.0% will work in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% (1.1180). Without this, I do not recommend buying a pair.

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of May 23, 2019, and June 25, 2019.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair closed below the correction level of 100.0% (1.1107) and I recommend selling today with the target of 1.1025, with the stop-loss order above the level of 1.1107.

I recommend buying the EUR/USD pair with a target of 1.1180, and with a stop-loss level of 1.1107, if the closing is performed above the correction level of 100.0%.

GBP/USD – 4H.

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Boris Johnson wrote a letter to Donald Tusk with a proposal to revise the mechanism of "backstop", reflected in the current agreement on Brexit, which rejected the British Parliament three times. Johnson stressed that Brexit "No Deal" is not beneficial to anyone and invited the European Union to think again about the revision of the agreement. He also said that the current version of the agreement the Parliament will not accept, mainly because of the desire of the European Union on a tight border with the UK on the island of Ireland. After Brexit, Ireland will remain in the European Union, but Northern Ireland will leave it with the UK. However, according to the 1998 Belfast Agreement, there can be no physical boundaries. Thus, the Belfast Treaty can seriously damage the reputation of the Kingdom of Great Britain, as well as cause riots and protests on the island of Ireland. What will Donald Tusk reply to this letter? Hardly a simple agreement. The chances of new negotiations remain slim. Especially in light of the ticking countdown timer in Boris Johnson's office until October 31. Nevertheless, I want to believe that Brussels and London will still be able to agree on the Northern Ireland border and Brexit "No Deal" will be avoided. By the way, it is in the interests of Johnson himself, who fell out of favor to many political forces in Parliament because of the desire to implement Brexit at any cost. With the release of politicians from the summer holidays, the work of the Parliament will resume and we will know whether the story will develop with the issuance of a vote of confidence to the Prime Minister. If so, then another reshuffle of the prime minister is not ruled out, and in the context of Brexit, this will mean complete chaos.

The pound/dollar is kept strictly under the correction level of 127.2% (1.2180), rebounded from it. Thus, the drop of the quotes may be resumed towards the Fibonacci level of 161.8% (1.1853). Closing the GBP/USD pair above the correction level of 127.2% will allow traders to expect some growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% (1.2437), but the chances of reaching this level are extremely small now.

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of January 3, 2019, and March 13, 2019.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair may resume the process of falling. Thus, I recommend selling the pair with the target of 1.1853, with the stop-loss order above the level of 1.2180, as the rebound from the Fibo level of 127.2% was performed.

I recommend buying the pair with the target of 1.2437 and with the stop-loss order below the level of 127.2% if the closure is performed above the level of 1.2180.

Forex analysis 20 Aug 2019, 06:15 UTC+00
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3 Forecast for GBP/USD on August 20,2019
The pound's correctional growth on August 20, despite the optimism of the indicators, may stop
GBP/USD Over the past day, the situation for the British pound has not changed, especially according to indicators. On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator is approaching the boundary with the growth territory. From this boundary, the zero line, there may be a downward turn, but there may also be a signal overcoming it with a subsequent increase in the price to the magnetic point at 1.2230, where the price channel lines and the Fibonacci level of 223.6% converge. This can happen...

GBP/USD

Over the past day, the situation for the British pound has not changed, especially according to indicators. On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator is approaching the boundary with the growth territory. From this boundary, the zero line, there may be a downward turn, but there may also be a signal overcoming it with a subsequent increase in the price to the magnetic point at 1.2230, where the price channel lines and the Fibonacci level of 223.6% converge. This can happen after the price consolidates above the Fibonacci level of 238.2% (1.2154). Today the CBI balance of production orders in the UK for the current month will be published, the forecast is -25 versus -34 in July, this could be a reason for the pound to grow.

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On the four-hour chart, the Marlin maintains indications of a rising trend; the price is reliably above the balance lines and MACD. The advantage is on the side of the rising scenario.

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On the other hand, upon reaching the Fibonacci level of 238.2%, the correction may be completed. A sign of this will be price consolidation under yesterday's low, below 1.2104. Then we expect the pound to decline in the range of 1.2032/50, formed by the Fibonacci level of 261.8% and the MACD line on H4.

Forex analysis 20 Aug 2019, 04:04 UTC+00
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4 Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 08/20/2019 and trading recommendation
A stronger than expected slowdown in inflation in Europe makes us seriously think that the European Central Bank will...
Inflation in Europe slowed down from 1.3% to 1.0%, and this is the lowest value since November 2016. But then inflation gradually but steadily grew, but the European Central Bank still did not even think about curtailing the action of the quantitative easing program. The relative stabilization of inflation in the region of 2.0% was the reason for curtailing the action of the program of quantitative easing. Now, inflation is confidently going down, and has returned to those values when the...

Inflation in Europe slowed down from 1.3% to 1.0%, and this is the lowest value since November 2016. But then inflation gradually but steadily grew, but the European Central Bank still did not even think about curtailing the action of the quantitative easing program. The relative stabilization of inflation in the region of 2.0% was the reason for curtailing the action of the program of quantitative easing. Now, inflation is confidently going down, and has returned to those values when the European Central Bank even rejected the very idea of tightening monetary policy parameters. In other words, a slowdown in inflation from 1.3% to 1.0%, suggests that the European Central Bank will not only once again postpone consideration of raising the refinancing rate in the middle of next year, but will probably seriously think about a new easing of parameters monetary policy.

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So it is not surprising that the single European currency is under pressure. especially if you remember that the text of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be published tomorrow. Considering the fact that the decision to raise the refinancing rate was not unanimous, there is practically no doubt that the text of the minutes will contain almost unambiguous indications that one should not expect another reduction in the refinancing rate from the Federal Reserve. Against this background, growing fears that the European Central Bank will soften its monetary policy will obviously continue to put pressure on the single European currency. It is these thoughts that will prevail in the market today. Although the movement will not be strong, as investors still prefer to wait for the publication of the text of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting

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The EUR/USD pair, forming a pullback after the inertial move, reached a periodic level of 1.1100, where it felt resistance and as a fact the recovery process took place. Considering everything that is happening in general terms, we see that the current pullback, after all, could serve as a regrouping of trading forces in terms of restoring the inertial course and as a fact of the main downward trend.

It is likely to suggest that the quote focuses on the local low of 1.1066, the coordinates in this case is the reference for the inertial motion's recovery. It is worth considering that there is a characteristic alertness and a temporary fluctuation of 1.1070/1.1110, and should not be excluded from possible development. The most acceptable tactics are considered in terms of the breakdown of key values of 1.1066/1.1120.

Specifying all of the above in trading signals:

• We consider long positions in terms of a corrective move, where in case the price consolidates higher than 1.1120, you can consider the move to 1.1150.

• We consider short positions in the plan as a continuation of the inertial move, where in case the price consolidates below the local low of 1.1066, we will have a path to the psychological level of 1.1000 (+/- 30 points).

As we can see, trading recommendations are considered from the same angle, due to a slight change in quotations in the past day.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that indicators are prone to further decline at all the main time intervals. It is worth considering such a moment that in the event of a deceleration within the current fluctuation, indicators for shorter periods can be misleading with variable signals.

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Forex analysis 20 Aug 2019, 06:47 UTC+00
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5 Forecast for EUR/USD on August 20, 2019
The euro continues to consolidate on August 20 in anticipation of the Jackson Hole symposium
EUR/USD The eurozone balance of payments for June published yesterday showed a decrease from 30.3 billion euros to 18.4 billion against expectations of an increase to 32.2 billion euros. The final CPI score for July was lowered from 1.1% y/y to 1.0% y/y. The euro fell 11 points, once again finding support at the Fibonacci level of 123.6% (1.1074). On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator maintains a rising direction, the growth potential as part of the...

EUR/USD

The eurozone balance of payments for June published yesterday showed a decrease from 30.3 billion euros to 18.4 billion against expectations of an increase to 32.2 billion euros. The final CPI score for July was lowered from 1.1% y/y to 1.0% y/y. The euro fell 11 points, once again finding support at the Fibonacci level of 123.6% (1.1074).

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On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator maintains a rising direction, the growth potential as part of the consolidation is preserved ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium.

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On the four-hour chart, the oscillator line approached the boundary with the growth zone. This zero line is an independent resistance for the indicator, especially in a calm market. In the consolidation range, the price can make a false puncture of yesterday's high, thus, the correction will be 1.1066-1.1120.

Forex analysis 20 Aug 2019, 04:04 UTC+00
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6 Analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for August 20. For 1 year, inflation in the European Union slowed down from 2.3% to 1.0%.
In September, the ECB may announce a reduction in the rate. The euro, in turn, may update the minimums due to...
EUR / USD Monday, August 19, ended for the EUR / USD pair with a decrease of another 15 basis points, while Tuesday begins with a new fall. The only remarkable event of the past day was the report on inflation in the Eurozone for July. As you might guess, based on the title of the article, the consumer price index fell to 1.0% per annum, and on a monthly basis, it completely lost 0.5%. The euro immediately began a new decline, and the expected wave b at this rate will soon transform into...

EUR / USD

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Monday, August 19, ended for the EUR / USD pair with a decrease of another 15 basis points, while Tuesday begins with a new fall. The only remarkable event of the past day was the report on inflation in the Eurozone for July. As you might guess, based on the title of the article, the consumer price index fell to 1.0% per annum, and on a monthly basis, it completely lost 0.5%. The euro immediately began a new decline, and the expected wave b at this rate will soon transform into an impulse wave of a bearish trend. The whole wave pattern literally suffers from a news background that has not changed for the euro-dollar pair over a long period of time. The prospects for the euro currency can be said, if economic reports repeatedly get worse and worse over again. The global recession negatively affects the economy of the European Union that America does not feel particularly strong pressure from this factor, although it also has a trade war with China. Thus, the wave pattern still involves the construction of an upward wave with targets located above 1.1250, but a successful attempt to break the minimum of August 1 will lead to a new decrease in the Euro currency.

Purchase goals:

1.1264 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1.1322 - 76.4% Fibonacci

Sales goals:

1.1027 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The euro-dollar pair continues to build the upward trend section. Given the proximity to the minimum of wave c, now is a good time to buy an instrument in the calculation of building a wave c with targets located above the level of 1.1250. I recommend placing restrictive orders under the minimum of August 1, as the news background is the main factor that speaks in favor of continuing to decline the quotes of the instrument.

GBP / USD

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On August 19, the pair GBP / USD fell by 25 basis points, but overall, it continues to move away from previously reached minimums. Currently, the fifth wave e is still considered to be completed; however, the news background still allows one to complicate the downward trend section. A new complication can be determined by a successful attempt to break through the minimum of August 12. It can be said that both pairs, the euro-dollar and the pound-dollar, are now being kept from a new decline only due to previous minimums. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, made a new attempt to revise the current Brexit agreement by sending a letter to the President of the European Council Donald Tusk, in which he expressed his thoughts on the regime of "back-stop mode" on the Irish border. Although Tusk's answer is still unknown, but to be honest, few people believe that negotiations that have reached an impasse can be reanimated. It is because of this that the pound still does not receive any support from the news background, since there is no hope for an orderly Brexit.

Sales goals:

1.2056 - 323.6% Fibonacci

1.1830 - 423.6% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.2334 - 200.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The downward trend section may become even more complicated. Despite the fact that the wave e looks complete, it can take an even more complex form. Thus, by breaking through the minimum of August 12, I recommend considering the sale of the pair with targets near the level of 1.1830, which corresponds to 423.6% Fibonacci. There are certain chances for the pound to grow. The main thing is that the news background does not interfere with the difficult recovery of the UK currency.

Forex analysis 20 Aug 2019, 07:44 UTC+00
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7 Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs on August 20
Dear colleagues. For the euro / dollar pair, the price is in the correction zone from the downward structure on...
Forecast for August 20: Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1: For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1124, 1.1102, 1.1073, 1.1062, 1.1032 and 1.1011. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of August 13. Short-term movement to the bottom is expected in the range of 1.1073 - 1.1062. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 1.1032. Price consolidation is near this...

Forecast for August 20:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1124, 1.1102, 1.1073, 1.1062, 1.1032 and 1.1011. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of August 13. Short-term movement to the bottom is expected in the range of 1.1073 - 1.1062. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 1.1032. Price consolidation is near this level and hence the likelihood of a correction. For the potential value for the downward trend, we consider the level of 1.1032.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.1088 - 1.1102. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 1.1124. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of August 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1088 Take profit: 1.1100

Buy 1.1105 Take profit: 1.1122

Sell: 1.1060 Take profit: 1.1035

Sell: 1.1030 Take profit: 1.1011

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2245, 1.2224, 1.2191, 1.2169, 1.2135, 1.2117 and 1.2081. Here, we follow the development of the ascending cycle of August 12. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2169 - 1.2191. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. In this case, the target is 1.2224. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2245. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.2135 - 1.2117. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 1.2081. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of July 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2170 Take profit: 1.2190

Buy: 1.2195 Take profit: 1.2224

Sell: 1.2135 Take profit: 1.2118

Sell: 1.2115 Take profit: 1.2081

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9949, 0.9923, 0.9883, 0.9854, 0.9816, 0.9768, 0.9745 and 0.9714. Here, we follow the ascending structure of August 13. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9816. In this case, the target is 0.9854. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.9854 - 0.9883. The breakdown of the level of 0.9883 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.9923. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.9949. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9768 - 0.9745. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9714. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle of August 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9816 Take profit: 0.9854

Buy : 0.9856 Take profit: 0.9881

Sell: 0.9768 Take profit: 0.9747

Sell: 0.9743 Take profit: 0.9715

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.62, 108.14, 107.45, 106.91, 106.35, 105.94, 105.64 and 105.01. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure from August 12. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 106.91. In this case, the target is 107.45, wherein consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 107.45 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 108.14. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 108.62. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

The range of 105.94 - 105.64 is a key support for the top. Its passage at the price will lead to the development of a downward movement. In this case, the target is 105.01.

The main trend: building potential for the top of August 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 106.91 Take profit: 107.43

Buy : 107.47 Take profit: 108.14

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 105.62 Take profit: 105.04

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3445, 1.3422, 1.3385, 1.3361, 1.3329, 1.3288, 1.3265, 1.3240 and 1.3194. Here, we are following the development of the local ascendant structure of August 9. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3330. In this case, the target is 1.3361. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3361 - 1.3385. The breakdown of the level of 1.3385 will allow us to count on movement towards a potential target - 1.3422. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation in the range of 1.3422 - 1.3444, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

A short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3288 - 1.3265. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3240. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of August 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3330 Take profit: 1.3360

Buy : 1.3387 Take profit: 1.3422

Sell: 1.3288 Take profit: 1.3266

Sell: 1.3264 Take profit: 1.3240

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6967, 0.6922, 0.6902, 0.6869, 0.6843, 0.6803, 0.6762, 0.6733 and 0.6675. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of August 7, and the price has formed a small potential for the top of August 14. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6803. In this case, the first target is 0.6843. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.6843 - 0.6869. The breakdown of the level of 0.6870 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.6902. Consolidation is in the corridor 0.6902 - 0.6922. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6967. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

We expect a consolidated movement in the range of 0.6762 - 0.6733. The breakdown of the level of 0.6733 will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 0.6675.

The main trend is the ascending structure of August 7, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6805 Take profit: 0.6840

Buy: 0.6844 Take profit: 0.6867

Sell : Take profit :

Sell: 0.6730 Take profit: 0.6680

analytics5d5b53dece93e.png

For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 119.40, 118.65, 118.22, 117.58, 117.16 and 116.54. Here, we are following the development of local potential for the bottom of August 13. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 117.58 - 117.16. The breakdown of the latter value will allow us to expect movement to a potential target - 116.54. Consolidation is near this level.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 118.22 - 118.65. The breakdown of the last value will have the formation of an ascending structure for the top. Here, the first goal is 119.40.

The main trend is the formation of a local descending structure of August 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 118.22 Take profit: 118.62

Buy: 118.70 Take profit: 119.40

Sell: 117.56 Take profit: 117.18

Sell: 117.14 Take profit: 116.55

analytics5d5b53fd32ac9.png

For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 132.17, 131.23, 130.57, 129.66, 127.94, 127.33, 126.48 and 125.57. Here, we follow the development of the ascending structure of August 12. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 129.00 - 129.66. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 130.57. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 130.57 - 131.23. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 132.17. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 127.94 - 127.33. The breakdown of the latter value will favor the development of a downward structure. Here, the first goal is 126.48. For the potential value, we consider the level of 125.57.

The main trend is building potential for the top of August 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 129.67 Take profit: 130.55

Buy: 130.60 Take profit: 131.20

Sell: 127.30 Take profit: 126.50

Sell: 126.44 Take profit: 125.60

Forex analysis 20 Aug 2019, 02:01 UTC+00
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8 Overview of GBP/USD on August 20th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". Boris Johnson offered Donald Tusk to reconsider the terms of the deal on Brexit
This proposal looks like another attempt to show the public the desire to solve the problem situation with the...
4-hour timeframe Technical data: The upper linear regression channel: direction – down. The lower linear regression channel: direction – down. The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways. CCI: 64.6215 Boris Johnson in his first month as Prime Minister of Great Britain walks on a thin blade. With great fanfare and a wide margin, a victory was won overall rivals in the party, and then a month passed. The pound fell to historic lows, the British population began to prepare for Brexit,...

4-hour timeframe

analytics5d5b80a80c70a.png

Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: 64.6215

Boris Johnson in his first month as Prime Minister of Great Britain walks on a thin blade. With great fanfare and a wide margin, a victory was won overall rivals in the party, and then a month passed. The pound fell to historic lows, the British population began to prepare for Brexit, as for the Third World War, stocking up on food, medicines and other essentials, while a conspiracy is brewing in the British Parliament against Boris Johnson, who is led by Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn. The only reason for the conspiracy – to prevent "hard" Brexit. It turns out that the "hard" scenario of the "divorce" with the EU will shock most of the politicians, as it may drive the country into a hopeless crisis for many years, and also lead to the holding of referendums on independence in Northern Ireland and Scotland, the majority of which supports the option to "stay in the European Union." And the outcome of the referendum, no one can predict. The main complaint against Boris Johnson is that he does not try too hard to negotiate a new "deal" with the European Union. Theresa May went to Brussels for talks with EU leaders almost every two weeks. Johnson did not meet with Tusk, Juncker and the company during the month of the country's reign, however, he repeatedly suggested revising the terms of the "deal" in words. The European Union, of course, refused every time, since it did not receive any reasonable proposal. More precisely, he simply "did not receive any proposal." There are only Johnson's statements to the media, which create the appearance of a desperate desire to start new negotiations with the EU, to remove from the text of the agreement the paragraph on "backstop" and divorce amicably. However, what Britain would do in this case was not clear. Yesterday, Boris Johnson said that "he is confident that the European Union will change its mind and compromise in the end" and sent a letter to Donald Tusk, the head of the European Council, with a proposal to revise the terms of Brexit. In particular, Britain may waive the condition that Northern Ireland will remain part of the EU Customs Union during the transition period, but Johnson wants no rigid borders between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Most likely, Johnson's new attack will end, like all previous ones, with Brussels' refusal of any negotiations. That's the situation in the British Kingdom for a little more than 2 months before the next date X – October 31.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2115

S2 – 1.2085

S3 – 1.2054

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2146

R2 – 1.2177

R3 – 1.2207

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair formally continues its upward movement, very weak. Thus, you can consider buying pound with the target of 1.2177 and 1.2207, but with minimum lots. It will be possible to sell the pound sterling after fixing the pair below the moving average, which will return the initiative to the bears in the market.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Haiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Forex analysis 20 Aug 2019, 05:30 UTC+00
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9 EUR and GBP: The good news for the pound is over. Data on the eurozone clearly indicate lower interest rates by the ECB
Good news for the pound is over. Data on the eurozone clearly indicate lower interest rates by the ECB
Yesterday, the euro fell against the US dollar after weak reports on the eurozone economy, whose current account surplus has once again declined. The British pound also began to gradually decline in the pair with the dollar. Many traders and investors do not yet believe that the future meetings of the British Prime Minister with representatives of the EU on the topic of Brexit will bring success. According to the European Central Bank, the current account surplus of the eurozone...

Yesterday, the euro fell against the US dollar after weak reports on the eurozone economy, whose current account surplus has once again declined. The British pound also began to gradually decline in the pair with the dollar. Many traders and investors do not yet believe that the future meetings of the British Prime Minister with representatives of the EU on the topic of Brexit will bring success.

According to the European Central Bank, the current account surplus of the eurozone balance of payments in June this year fell to 18 billion euros from 30 billion euros in May. The total positive balance for the 12 months to June this year amounted to 318 billion euros. This is about 2.7% of the eurozone GDP. It is worth noting that last year, over the same period, the total surplus amounted to 391 billion euros. US trade duties and protectionist policies are affecting such indicators, where the situation will only worsen in the future. Let me remind you that the current account of the balance of payments is a general indicator of the international financial situation of the country.

Yesterday's data on consumer price inflation in the eurozone further strengthened traders' confidence that the European Central Bank will go to adjust interest rates in the autumn of this year, which will further weaken the position of the European currency. According to data, in July this year, inflation in the eurozone remains far from the target level set by the ECB. The report states that in July, compared with the same period last year, consumer prices rose by only 1%, while the first estimate showed an increase of 1.1%. Let me remind you that the annual inflation target is just below 2%. The decline was due to falling prices for industrial goods and energy.

analytics5d5bd048f1634.png

Another criticism of US President Donald Trump against Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was ignored by market participants. The US President has already made it a rule to criticize the Fed's work on the eve of the next expected speech of the head of the Central Bank. In his Twitter, Trump noted that the US economy is very strong, despite the lack of vision of the head of the Fed, but interest rates should be reduced by at least 1.0% in a fairly short period. The US President also noted that he expects a return to the quantitative easing program, which the European Central Bank can now resort to.

Yesterday, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Eric Rosengren also spoke, who expressed a different point of view on the current situation. Unlike the US President, Rosengren said that the state of the economy is still very good and the Fed should not soften policy too much in the absence of serious problems, as the lowering of rates has a price. However, he also pointed out that the committee should be aware of the risks to financial stability and pursue its policies regardless of the political situation.

As for the current technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it seems that the sellers of the euro hurried yesterday to fix profits after the release of weak reports, but the situation remains on the side of the bears. The next goal will be to update the lows of the previous week with the test of support levels of 1.1060 and 1.1030. If the bulls attempt to build an upward correction in the pair, it is best to consider short positions in the trading instrument from the upper border of the side channel of 1.1120. A larger resistance level is the area of 1.1160.

The British pound "digested" the next rumors about the possibility of a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Boris Johnson and after a small upward correction again headed for a decline. Also, the further direction of the pound will be influenced by the result of meetings of Prime Minister Boris Johnson with EU leaders, which are scheduled for this week. A good result should not be expected, so any negative news for the pound will once again strengthen the bearish trend.

From a technical point of view, the support breakthrough in the area of 1.2090 will increase the pressure on GBPUSD, which will open a real prospect for the return of the trading instrument to the area of lows 1.2040 and 1.1980. Also, a breakout of 1.2090 support will lead to a breakthrough of the lower limit of the current upward channel, which is a bad signal for buyers.

Forex analysis 20 Aug 2019, 08:06 UTC+00
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10 Indicator analysis. Daily review on August 20, 2019 for the GBP / USD currency pair
On Tuesday, the pair will continue to move upward, but after lunch. Before lunch, there will be a downward movement...
On Tuesday, the pair will continue to move upward, but after lunch. Before lunch, there will be a downward movement with the target of the lower fractal - 1.2104. On Monday, moving up, the price was not able to break through the 13th average EMA - 1.2143 and rolled back down. Strong calendar news is not expected on Tuesday. Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Tuesday, the price will continue to move up, with the first target at 1.2215 - a pullback level of 14.6% (yellow dashed line). ...

On Tuesday, the pair will continue to move upward, but after lunch. Before lunch, there will be a downward movement with the target of the lower fractal - 1.2104. On Monday, moving up, the price was not able to break through the 13th average EMA - 1.2143 and rolled back down. Strong calendar news is not expected on Tuesday.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, the price will continue to move up, with the first target at 1.2215 - a pullback level of 14.6% (yellow dashed line).

analytics5d5b968344ade.png

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, the price will continue to move up.

The scenario of the lower movement is unlikely, but we will consider it. When moving down, the first lower target of 1.2037 is the support line (red bold line).

Forex analysis 20 Aug 2019, 07:00 UTC+00
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