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1 Technical analysis for EUR/USD for January 23, 2019
We have presented the daily chart view for EUR/USD as a bigger picture view is required for medium term outlook....
Technical outlook: We have presented the daily chart view for EUR/USD as a bigger picture view is required for medium term outlook. EUR/USD dropped from 1.2550 levels through 1.1300 levels between February and August 2018 and unfolded into 5 waves as depicted here. Ideally, after a 5-wave movement towards the larger trend, one can expect a 3-wave counter trend movement which has been depicted as (A)-(B)-(C) on the chart view here. A higher probability could is that of an expanded flat,...

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Technical outlook:

We have presented the daily chart view for EUR/USD as a bigger picture view is required for medium term outlook. EUR/USD dropped from 1.2550 levels through 1.1300 levels between February and August 2018 and unfolded into 5 waves as depicted here. Ideally, after a 5-wave movement towards the larger trend, one can expect a 3-wave counter trend movement which has been depicted as (A)-(B)-(C) on the chart view here. A higher probability could is that of an expanded flat, which could reach 1.1800 levels at least. Please note that resistance is at 1.1815 levels while interim support is seen at 1.1270, followed by 1.1213 levels respectively. For the above discussed structure to remain valid, prices should stay above 1.1213 levels from here on. Also note that the fibonacci 0.618 resistance of drop between 1.2550 and 1.1300 levels is seen at 1.2042 levels, hence possibility remains for a push until those limits.

Trading plan:

Long now @ 1.1360/70, stop at 1.1213, target @ 1.1800/20

Good luck!

Forex analysis 23 Jan 2019, 03:18 UTC+00
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2 Technical analysis for Gold for January 23, 2019
Gold price has been in the uptrend since August and has managed to rise from $1,160 to nearly $1,300 where we find an...
Gold price has been in an up trend since August and has managed to rise from $1,160 to nearly $1,300 where we find an important Fibonacci retracement level. Although technically we remain in a bullish trend and this price pull back is considered corrective in nature, we should not ignore the bearish scenario. Green rectangle - next target if resistance at $1,300 breaks Red rectangle - Fibonacci resistance Gold price has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of resistance and...

Gold price has been in an up trend since August and has managed to rise from $1,160 to nearly $1,300 where we find an important Fibonacci retracement level. Although technically we remain in a bullish trend and this price pull back is considered corrective in nature, we should not ignore the bearish scenario.

analytics5c48103d970ac.png

Green rectangle - next target if resistance at $1,300 breaks

Red rectangle - Fibonacci resistance

Gold price has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of resistance and got rejected. This is a very important Fibonacci level because around this level we usually see changes in trend. So as long as price remains below the $1,300 resistance area, we remain cautious and the bearish scenario for a deeper pullback remains in play. If price breaks above resistance we should then expect price to reach $1,320. Short-term support is found at $1,270 and any break below it will be a sign of weakness. A move below $1,250-25 will increase the chances of a bigger downtrend in play targeting below $1,160.

Forex analysis 23 Jan 2019, 06:00 UTC+00
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3 Trading plan for 23/01/2019
Markets remain stable in most cases, waiting for new events. The decision of the Bank of Japan did not surprise and...
Trading plan for 23/01/2019: Markets remain stable in most cases, waiting for new events. The decision of the Bank of Japan did not surprise and passed unnoticed. The growth leader in the currency market is NZD after a better-than-forecast CPI reading. Indices in Asia were almost still, Shanghai Composite is at Tuesday's closing level. Japanese Nikkei225 loses 0.1 percent. On Wednesday, the 23rd of January, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the global investors...

Trading plan for 23/01/2019:

Markets remain stable in most cases, waiting for new events. The decision of the Bank of Japan did not surprise and passed unnoticed.

The growth leader in the currency market is NZD after a better-than-forecast CPI reading. Indices in Asia were almost still, Shanghai Composite is at Tuesday's closing level. Japanese Nikkei225 loses 0.1 percent.

On Wednesday, the 23rd of January, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the global investors might want to keep an eye on Retail Sales data from Canada, House Prices Index data from the US and Consumer Confidence data from the Eurozone. Moreover, there is a speech from BOE Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Ben Broadbent scheduled early in the morning.

USD/JPY analysis for 23/01/2019:

The main event of the night was the Bank Of Japan Interest Rate Announcement, Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes release and BoJ Press Conference.

BoJ has maintained the interest rate at the negative level of -0.10% as expected and the target for 10-year bond yields remained at 0.0%. BoJ cut GDP growth forecasts for the current fiscal year 2018/19 to 0.9%. from 1.4%, and slightly raised forecasts for the next two years. The inflation forecast for 2021 was also lowered.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The BoJ interest rate decision did not have too much impact on the market behavior as the price has bounced from the technical support at the level of 109.15 after the Pin Bar candlestick was made. The bulls have managed to rally towards the level of 109.80 but the last H4 candle looks like a Shooting Star, which might indicate a trend reversal. That's why, despite the fact that the trend is still bullish and the target is seen at the level of 110.18, the bears might take more control over the market once the price break through the local support at the level of 109.48. Then the technical support at 109.15 will be tested again (red arrow scenario). Otherwise, the uptrend should remain intact as the momentum is still positive and strong.

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Forex analysis 23 Jan 2019, 06:13 UTC+00
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4 Analysis of Gold for January 22, 2019
Gold failed to test the median Pitchfork trendline, which is a sign of the potential weak selling. Watch for buying...
Gold is expected to move higher towards $1,294.00 (resistance cluster) as long as the support at $1,276.00 is holding. Gold failed to test the Pitchfork median line, which is a sign that selling power decreased. Stochastic is in the oversold zone together with hidden bullish divergence, which adds more potential strength on Gold. Only a break below support at $1,276.00 will change this bullish trading idea and stop us for our bullish view. Trading recommendation: We will buy Gold on the...

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Gold is expected to move higher towards $1,294.00 (resistance cluster) as long as the support at $1,276.00 is holding. Gold failed to test the Pitchfork median line, which is a sign that selling power decreased. Stochastic is in the oversold zone together with hidden bullish divergence, which adds more potential strength on Gold. Only a break below support at $1,276.00 will change this bullish trading idea and stop us for our bullish view.

Trading recommendation: We will buy Gold on the breakout of the resistance at $1,284.00 with a target at $1,294.00 and protective stop at $1,276.00. Watch for a breakout of resistance before buying.

Forex analysis 22 Jan 2019, 12:30 UTC+00
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5 GBP/USD. January 22. Results of the day. The pound is growing again, despite the failure of the Brexit
The British pound sterling on the second trading day of the week, January 22, completed the correction, rebounding...
4-hour timeframe The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 246p - 72p - 169p - 136p - 80p. Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 140p (147p). The British pound sterling on the second trading day of the week, January 22, completed the correction, rebounding from the critical Kijun-sen line. Thus, despite the complete confusion with the whole Brexit procedure, the pound sterling continues to rise in price (!!!). Today or tomorrow, the pair can update the local high, which...

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 246p - 72p - 169p - 136p - 80p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 140p (147p).

The British pound sterling on the second trading day of the week, January 22, completed the correction, rebounding from the critical Kijun-sen line. Thus, despite the complete confusion with the whole Brexit procedure, the pound sterling continues to rise in price (!!!). Today or tomorrow, the pair can update the local high, which confirms the preservation of the uptrend. The growth of the British currency today was due to positive macroeconomic statistics from the UK. The unemployment rate fell in November to 4%, the average wage level including premiums rose by 3.4% with a lower forecast, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits exceeded the forecast only slightly. In general, there were grounds for increased demand for the pound. It remains only a mystery as to what keeps the pound from new falls in connection with all the events of the new year in the UK. Perhaps the "Shutdown" in the United States? But the euro currency does not rise in price with the same "Shutdown". It seems that in general, the growth of the pound is still a little groundless, but quite accurate and well predicted from a technical point of view. Thus, for this pair, until there are new important messages from the British Parliament, the technical factor is also the main one. MACD indicator has turned up, which signals a completion of the correction.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair resumed its upward movement. Thus, buy orders with targets at levels of 1.3024 and 1.3076 are now recommended. A turn of the MACD indicator downwards will serve as a signal to the manual reduction of longs.

Sell orders are recommended to be considered not earlier than traders overcoming the critical line and turning the MACD indicator down. Only in this case will it be possible to trade in a fall in small lots with the first goal of 1.2801.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen-red line.

Kijun-sen – blue line.

Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.

Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.

Chikou span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

Forex analysis 22 Jan 2019, 23:24 UTC+00
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6 Theresa May failed to inspire the British currency
British Prime Minister Theresa may could not inspire traders yesterday: the presented "plan B" was more like a...
British Prime Minister Theresa may could not inspire traders yesterday: the presented "plan B" was more like a declaration of intent than a strategy for further action. By and large, the prime minister again tried to convince the deputies of the absence of any alternative to the agreement reached. At the same time, at the time of yesterday's evening, the deal itself remained in the same form – May only voiced a few principles that will guide the revision of the agreement. The market clearly...

British Prime Minister Theresa may could not inspire traders yesterday: the presented "plan B" was more like a declaration of intent than a strategy for further action. By and large, the prime minister again tried to convince the deputies of the absence of any alternative to the agreement reached. At the same time, at the time of yesterday's evening, the deal itself remained in the same form – May only voiced a few principles that will guide the revision of the agreement. The market clearly expected more productive ideas from the British prime minister, so the pound showed modest growth, "satisfied" with the fact that May did not say anything about the possibility of his resignation and early elections.

But in general, the situation with Brexit remains in limbo. According to some experts, yesterday's speech of the British prime minister says that the European Union categorically refused to revise the key terms of the agreement. Representatives of Brussels said this before, and judging by the rhetoric of May, she could not persuade Europeans to meet her halfway. Let me remind you that earlier in the British press there were rumors that the deputies would approve the deal, but on one condition – if the European Union makes a number of changes to the text of the agreement. Anticipating the reaction of Brussels, May did not voice this option. Similarly, she did not talk about another scenario, which involved the conclusion of a bilateral agreement between Britain and Ireland. Dublin was directly opposed to the idea, and May also seemed unable to persuade her Irish colleagues to accept the proposal.

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Instead of concrete proposals, the prime minister announced only declaratory of the principles which it intends to guide the revision of the deal. First, she said that those EU citizens who work in Britain will be guaranteed "all the necessary rights" – that is, their conditions of stay in the country will not deteriorate. This is a kind of "curtsey" in the direction of Labour, as they lobbied for this issue for quite a long time. Secondly, May promised this week to once again work on the beckstop issue – this time together with the Democratic Unionist Party.

In other words, Theresa May tried to "smooth things over" by promising constructive cooperation with both Labour and representatives of the DUP. The only question is how Brussels will react to their agreed propositions. The key problem here is the backstop.

By and large, the deputies of the British Parliament are concerned about two issues. The first is the absence of any clear time frame for the duration of the backstop mechanism, despite the fact that without the approval of the European Union it is impossible to suspend this regime (according to the current version of the draft deal). The second problem is that part of Britain, in fact, will be forced to obey EU regulations. Both London and Brussels recognize that it will be difficult to resolve this tangle of contradictions.

In particular, the representatives of Poland yesterday proposed to designate a "deadline", that is, to limit the duration of the mechanism to specific time dates (approximately – two or three years). However, Brussels was skeptical of this proposal. According to the chief negotiator of the EU Michel Barnier, the EU is not ready to provide London with such guarantees, and even more so with specific deadlines. The most that the British have to count on is the conclusion of an additional declaration, where the conditions for cooperation between Britain and the EU after Brexit will be indicated. It is unlikely that Theresa May will agree to such a generalized and non-binding document - after all, it will most likely be rejected by the House of Commons.

Thus, Brexit's question hasn't really moved off the ground, despite the reduced likelihood of a "hard" scenario. Although May categorically does not accept the idea of postponing the country's exit from the EU, recent events suggest that no one needs a chaotic Brexit: neither Brussels nor the Parliament nor the government. This fact keeps the pound afloat, although further currency growth is questionable.

For example, today, bulls of the GBP/USD tried to develop success against the background of a strong enough statistics on the growth of the British labor market. The unemployment rate returned again to 4 percent, with a simultaneous increase in wages (to 3.4 per cent). The latest figure has been consistently growing since June last year, supporting "hawkish" rumors about the prospects of monetary policy of the Bank of England. But, despite this fact, the pound was able to go to the 29th figure for only a short period of time. Within two hours after the release, the downward impulse was exhausted, and traders again focused on the prospects of the "divorce process".

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Summarizing the above, it should be noted that now the main political struggle will unfold around the issue of backstop. The pound will react accordingly: if the European Union is ready to compromise, the British will not only gain a foothold in the 29th figure, but will also test the annual highs. Otherwise, the GBP/USD pair will turn down to the first support level of 1.2770 (the average Bollinger Bands line on the daily chart).

Forex analysis 22 Jan 2019, 23:32 UTC+00
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7 Technical analysis for EUR/USD for January 23, 2019
EUR/USD reached very close to our 1.1320 target. This target was given once 1.14 failed to hold. Price now seems to...
EUR/USD reached very close to our 1.1320 target. This target was given once 1.14 failed to hold. Price now seems to be turning upwards. In the weekly chart we see price respecting the weekly trend line support and this is a bullish sign. Red rectangle - major resistance Black line - major support trend line EUR/USD continues to make higher lows since November. Major resistance is at 1.1470-1.15. A beak above it will open the way for a move towards 1.17 at least. Support is critical at...

EUR/USD reached very close to our 1.1320 target. This target was given once 1.14 failed to hold. Price now seems to be turning upwards. In the weekly chart we see price respecting the weekly trend line support and this is a bullish sign.

analytics5c4811714d068.png

Red rectangle - major resistance

Black line - major support trend line

EUR/USD continues to make higher lows since November. Major resistance is at 1.1470-1.15. A beak above it will open the way for a move towards 1.17 at least. Support is critical at 1.13 and if price breaks below it I expect to eventually see a move towards 1.10-1.11. I continue to favor the bullish scenario as long as we trade above 1.13. Risk reward favors bulls now.

Forex analysis 23 Jan 2019, 06:04 UTC+00
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8 GBP/USD: plan for the European session on January 23. No news on Brexit
GBP/USD: plan for the European session on January 23. No news on Brexit
To open long positions on GBP/USD you need: The pound continues to show a slight increase against the background of statements by the British Prime Minister Theresa May on the changes in Brexit, but there is no support from the major players yet. While trading is above support at 1.2944, the demand for the pound will remain, which will lead to an update of the monthly high around 1.3006, where I recommend taking profits. Any positive news on Brexit could lead to a more dramatic...

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

The pound continues to show a slight increase against the background of statements by the British Prime Minister Theresa May on the changes in Brexit, but there is no support from the major players yet. While trading is above support at 1.2944, the demand for the pound will remain, which will lead to an update of the monthly high around 1.3006, where I recommend taking profits. Any positive news on Brexit could lead to a more dramatic strengthening of GBPUSD, with the update levels 1.3064 and 1.3127. In the event of a decrease under the support area of 1.2944, it is best to look closely at long positions around 1.2894 and at a rebound from 1.2833.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

The update of yesterday's highs with confirmation of the divergence on the MACD indicator will be a direct signal to the opening of short positions in the British pound. However, the main task for the bears will be to return to the support level of 1.2944, which will lead to the formation of a downward trend and the sale of GBP/USD in the area of lows 1.2894 and 1.2833, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of good news on Brexit and the breakdown of the high of 1.3006, I recommend to consider short positions in GBP/USD only after updating the levels of 1.3064 and 1.3127.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted slightly above the 30-day and 50-day moving, but in the current environment it does not mean the continuation of the upward trend in the pound.

Bollinger bands

In case of a decrease in the pound in the first half of the day, the intermediate support will be the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.2900.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
Forex analysis 23 Jan 2019, 07:09 UTC+00
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9 Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for January 23, 2019
GBP/JPY dipped to a low of 140.63 before moving higher again as expected. We are looking for upside acceleration...
GBP/JPY dipped to a low of 140.63 before moving higher again as expected. We are looking for upside acceleration towards the 145.17 and likely even closer to 147.71 as the next hurdles on the way towards 151.90 in wave iii. Support is now seen at 141.35 with key support at 140.63, which should be able to protect the downside for the acceleration higher. R3: 143.81 R2: 142.71 R1: 142.29 Pivot: 141.35 S1: 141.05 S2: 140.63 S3: 140.25 Trading recommendation: We are long GBP from...

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GBP/JPY dipped to a low of 140.63 before moving higher again as expected. We are looking for upside acceleration towards the 145.17 and likely even closer to 147.71 as the next hurdles on the way towards 151.90 in wave iii.

Support is now seen at 141.35 with key support at 140.63, which should be able to protect the downside for the acceleration higher.

R3: 143.81

R2: 142.71

R1: 142.29

Pivot: 141.35

S1: 141.05

S2: 140.63

S3: 140.25

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 140.90 and we will move our stop higher to 140.50.

Forex analysis 23 Jan 2019, 04:54 UTC+00
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10 Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 23, 2019
As long as resistance at 124.93 is able to cap the upside a more complex correction in wave ii remains possible for a...
As long as resistance at 124.93 is able to cap the upside a more complex correction in wave ii remains possible for a second decline to 122.70. If, however resistance at 124.93 gives away the alternate count comes into play. Under this count wave ii completed already with the dip to 123.40 and wave iii higher to 132.12 developing already. R3: 126.38 R2: 125.81 R1: 125.19 Pivot: 124.93 S1: 124.55 S2: 124.10 S3: 123.72 Trading recommendation: We will buy EUR at 123.00 or upon a...

analytics5c47ffc6a5c88.png

As long as resistance at 124.93 is able to cap the upside a more complex correction in wave ii remains possible for a second decline to 122.70.

If, however resistance at 124.93 gives away the alternate count comes into play. Under this count wave ii completed already with the dip to 123.40 and wave iii higher to 132.12 developing already.

R3: 126.38

R2: 125.81

R1: 125.19

Pivot: 124.93

S1: 124.55

S2: 124.10

S3: 123.72

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 123.00 or upon a break above resistance at 124.93

Forex analysis 23 Jan 2019, 04:49 UTC+00
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