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1 #USDX vs GBP / USD H4 vs EUR / USD H4. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from July 17, 2019. Analysis of APLs & ZUP
Today, we will look at yesterday's options for marking #USDX vs EUR / USD H4 vs GBP / USD H4. We will correlate them...
Everything becomes clear in comparison... In this regard, we look at yesterday's options for #USDX vs EUR / USD H4 vs GBP / USD H4 and relate them to the current situation on FOREX today, and then try to determine the prospects for the development of these instruments from July 17, 2019. Minuette (H4) ____________________ US dollar Index After the breakdown of the resistance level of 96.95 (the final Schiff Line Minuette) #USDX was in the range again : - resistance...

Everything becomes clear in comparison...

In this regard, we look at yesterday's options for #USDX vs EUR / USD H4 vs GBP / USD H4 and relate them to the current situation on FOREX today, and then try to determine the prospects for the development of these instruments from July 17, 2019.

Minuette (H4)

____________________

US dollar Index

After the breakdown of the resistance level of 96.95 (the final Schiff Line Minuette) #USDX was in the range again :

- resistance level of 97.38 (lower boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operating scale fork);

- support level of 97.22 (a Median Line channel Minuette);

The direction of the breakdown of which will determine the development trend of the movement of the dollar index from July 17, 2019.

The breakdown of the resistance level of 97.38 - the development of the #USDX movement will continue in the equilibrium zone (97.38 - 97.50 - 97.70) of the Minuette operating scale with a perspective (after the breakdown of ISL61.8 Minuette - the resistance level of 97.70) to reach the final Shiff Line Minuette (97.95) and the final FSL line Minuette (98.22).

When the dollar index returns below the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (support level of 97.22), the development of the #USDX movement can be continued towards the goals - the lower boundary of the ISL38.2 (96.90) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork - local minimum 96.75 - 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (96.25 - 96.05 - 95.85).

The details of the #USDX movement from July 17, 2019 are presented in the animated graphic.

analytics5d2df0857c1c7.jpg

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Euro vs US Dollar

The 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale (support level of 1.1255) could not stop the downward movement of the single European currency, and EUR / USD was in the range formed by the levels:

- resistance level of 1.1235 (SSL start line for the Minuette operating scale);

- support level of 1.1220 (lower boundary of ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork);

Accordingly, the further development of the EUR / USD movement from July 17, 2019 will be due to the direction of the breakdown of this range.

The breakdown of the support level of 1.1220 at the lower boundary of the ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork , together with the breakdown of the support level of 1.1210, will determine the further development of the movement of EUR / USD in the channel boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line (1.1210 - 1.1195 - 1.1175) and equilibrium zone (1.1185 - 1.1165 - 1.1150) of the Minuette operational scale fork with the prospect of reaching the ultimate Schiff Line Minuette (1.1130).

On the other hand, if the EUR / USD returns above the initial SSL line (resistance level of 1.1235) of the Minuette operating scale fork, then there may be a development of the upward movement of the single European currency to the targets - the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette (1.1255) - the upper boundary of the ISL38.2 (1.1290) the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork with the prospect of reaching the lower boundary of the channel of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette (1.1340).

The details of the EUR / USD movement options from July 17, 2019 are shown in the animated graphic.

analytics5d2df15c5131c.jpg

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Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar

1/2 Median Line Minuette (support level of 1.2510) was safely broken. As a result of which, Her Majesty's currency (GBP) found itself in an equilibrium zone (1.2460 - 1.2415 - 1.2375) of the Minuette operating scale. The breakdown direction of which will determine the further development of the GBP / USD movement from July 17, 2019.

The breakdown of the lower boundary of ISL61.8 (support level of 1.2375) of the Minuette operational scale fork along with the LWL38.2 Minuette warning line (1.2385) will make it possible to continue the downward movement of GBP / USD to the control line LTL Minuette (1.2315) and the warning line LWL61. 8 Minuette (1.2287).

In the case of the breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (resistance level of 1.2460) of the Minuette operational scale, the development of Her Majesty's currency movement will continue to the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (1.2460 - 1.2500 - 1.2540) with the prospect of reaching the initial line SSL Minuette (1.2580) and the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (1.2645).

The details of the GBP / USD movement from July 17, 2019 are presented in the animated graphic.

3ywKRBDdqxrRxm-UbnQSLB655jDegGSBN6h1aWag

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The review was compiled without taking into account of the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where power ratios correspond to the weights of currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6%;

Pound sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula gives the index value to 100 on the starting date - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

Forex analysis 17 Jul 2019, 00:01 UTC+00
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2 Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on July 17
Dear colleagues. For the euro / dollar pair, after the cancellation of the ascending structure, we follow the...
The forecast for July 17: Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs: For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1283, 1.1251, 1.1233, 1.1221, 1.1195, 1.1169, 1.1137 and 1.1116. Here, the price canceled the development of the ascending structure and at the moment, we are watching the formation of the potential for the bottom of July 15. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1195. In this case,...

The forecast for July 17:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

analytics5d2e78fbc976f.png

For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1283, 1.1251, 1.1233, 1.1221, 1.1195, 1.1169, 1.1137 and 1.1116. Here, the price canceled the development of the ascending structure and at the moment, we are watching the formation of the potential for the bottom of July 15. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1195. In this case, the goal is 1.1169, wherein consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.1169 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 1.1137. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.1116. After reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1221 - 1.1233. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1251. This level is a key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle. Here, the potential target is 1.1283 .

The main trend - the formation of potential for the bottom of July 15

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1221 Take profit: 1.1232

Buy 1.1335 Take profit: 1.1250

Sell: 1.1295 Take profit: 1.1170

Sell: 1.1167 Take profit: 1.1140

analytics5d2e7916d6b40.png

For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2492, 1.2458, 1.2434, 1.2395, 1.2364 and 1.2337. Here, the price canceled the development of the ascending structure and we are following the downward trend of July 12. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2395. In this case, the target is 1.2364. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2337. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2434 - 1.2458. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2492. This level is a key support for the downward structure of July 12.

The main trend - the downward structure of July 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2435 Take profit: 1.2457

Buy: 1.2460 Take profit: 1.2492

Sell: 1.2395 Take profit: 1.2365

Sell: 1.2362 Take profit: 1.2337

analytics5d2e79539737d.png

For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9952, 0.9902, 0.9881, 0.9841, 0.9820, 0.9797 and 0.9779. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of July 9. At the moment, the price is in the correction zone. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9841. In this case, the goal is 0.9820. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow us to count on the movement to 0.9797. For the potential value for the downward trend, we consider the level of 0.9779. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the correction.

Consolidated movement is possible in the range of 0.9881 - 0.9902. We expect the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle to the level of 0.9902.

The main trend is the formation of the downward structure of July 9, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9881 Take profit: 0.9902

Buy : 0.9910 Take profit: 0.9950

Sell: 0.9840 Take profit: 0.9822

Sell: 0.9818 Take profit: 0.9797

analytics5d2e796e42f79.png

For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.99, 108.70, 108.42, 107.78, 107.58, 107.41, 106.98 and 106.68. Here, we are following the downward structure of July 10th. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 107.78. Here, the goal is 107.58, and near this level is a price consolidation. A passage at the price of the noise range 107.58 - 107.41 will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. In this case, the goal is 106.98. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 106.68. From which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 108.42 - 108.70. The breakdown of the latter value will have to form an upward structure. Here, the potential target is 108.99.

The main trend: the formation of a downward structure of July 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.43 Take profit: 108.70

Buy : 108.72 Take profit: 108.99

Sell: 107.78 Take profit: 107.58

Sell: 107.40 Take profit: 107.00

analytics5d2e79acae893.png

For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3141, 1.3105, 1.3090, 1.3041, 1.3016, 1.3001, 1.2964 and 1.2937. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of July 9th. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3041. In this case, the first goal - 1.3016. The price pass of the noise range 1.3016 - 1.3001 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. In this case, the target is 1.2964. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2937. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

The range of 1.3090 - 1.3105 is a key support for the downward structure. Its price passage will have to form an upward structure. In this case, the potential target is 1.3141.

The main trend - the downward structure of July 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3105 Take profit: 1.3140

Buy : Take profit:

Sell: 1.3041 Take profit: 1.3016

Sell: 1.3000 Take profit: 1.2965

analytics5d2e79c779cb7.png

For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.7111, 0.7091, 0.7063, 0.7050, 0.7013, 0.6991 and 0.6969. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of July 10. Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.7050 - 0.7063. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. In this case, the target is 0.7091. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.7111. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7013 - 0.6991. The breakdown of the latter value will have to form the initial conditions for the downward cycle. Here, the goal is 0.6969.

The main trend - the ascending structure of July 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7050 Take profit: 0.7063

Buy: 0.7065 Take profit: 0.7090

Sell : 0.7011 Take profit : 0.6993

Sell: 0.6988 Take profit: 0.6972

analytics5d2e7a015cf20.png

For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 122.28, 121.89, 121.59, 121.22, 120.92 and 120.48. Here, we are following the downward structure of July 10th. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 121.22. In this case, the target is 120.92, wherein consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 120.48. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 121.59 - 121.89. The breakdown of the latter value will have to the formation of the potential for the top. Here, the goal is 122.28.

The main trend - the downward structure of July 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.59 Take profit: 121.87

Buy: 121.94 Take profit: 122.28

Sell: 121.20 Take profit: 120.94

Sell: 120.90 Take profit: 120.50

analytics5d2e7a1c5743f.png

For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 135.04, 134.70, 134.44, 134.13, 133.94, 133.56 and 133.24. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of July 9th. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 134.13 - 133.94. In this case, the goal is 133.56. We consider the level of 133.24 to be a potential value for the bottom. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 134.44 - 134.70. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 135.04. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of July 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 134.45 Take profit: 134.65

Buy: 134.72 Take profit: 135.04

Sell: 133.94 Take profit: 133.56

Sell: 133.50 Take profit: 133.25

Forex analysis 17 Jul 2019, 00:56 UTC+00
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3 GBP/USD: the chances for a "soft" Brexit are rapidly decreasing, the pound has fallen to two-year lows
Several factors are playing against the British currency at once: this is a high probability of the implementation of...
TheGBP/USD pair slipped to the lowest level since 2017 (to the level of 1.2420). Several factors are playing against the British currency at once: this is a high probability of the implementation of a "hard" Brexit, and a moderate economic growth in the country, and the fact that the monetary policy of the Bank of England can move to a more "soft" course. On the eve of the two candidates for prime minister, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, stated that even substantial...

analytics5d2e67cba14fd.jpg

TheGBP/USD pair slipped to the lowest level since 2017 (to the level of 1.2420).

Several factors are playing against the British currency at once: this is a high probability of the implementation of a "hard" Brexit, and a moderate economic growth in the country, and the fact that the monetary policy of the Bank of England can move to a more "soft" course.

On the eve of the two candidates for prime minister, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, stated that even substantial concessions on the part of the European Union on the regulation of the Irish border may not be enough to ratify the "divorce" agreement. This heightened concerns that the new British government's stance on Brexit would be more rigid, which could lead to the breakdown of the London-Brussels talks and the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU on October 31 without a deal.

According to analysts, the dynamics of the GBP/USD pair reflects the general mood of the market in relation to the pound.

In this regard, it is noteworthy that the British currency was unable to use even the positive statistics on the country's labor market today.

According to the National Statistical Office (ONS), the average salary (including premiums) increased by 3.4%, in March-May with an expected growth of 3.1%. At the same time, unemployment remained at the lowest from October-December 1974 - 3.8%.

The employment sector in the country remains one of the few that remains stable despite the constant stress caused by Brexit.

The futures market is already expecting a 50% chance of lowering interest rates by the Bank of England in 2019 due to the risk of Great Britain's chaotic exit from the EU, as the policy outweighed stronger than expected labor market data.

This month, the pound sterling hit a two-year low against the US dollar.

Analysts polled recently by Bloomberg report that the situation may worsen next month. Moreover, this is an established trend: the fall of the pound against the dollar in August has been noted over the past five years.

"In any case, we will have enough cause for concern in August, with the arrival of the new prime minister of Great Britain, as we are approaching October 31," the currency strategists of Royal Bank of Canada believe.

"Since the British Parliament has gone on summer vacation, the deadline for the UK's withdrawal from the EU is inexorably expiring," said MUFG analyst Lee Hardman.

ING Group believes that B. Johnson will become a leader who will not succeed in concluding a new agreement with Brussels. This will increase the likelihood that Great Britain will leave without a deal.

The main message of B. Johnson during the Brexit campaign was that this event would not have a negative impact on the British economy. However, the irony is that the ex-foreign minister may become the prime minister of the country just at the moment when the national economy will fully experience all the Brexit.

News 17 Jul 2019, 00:01 UTC+00
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4 Forecast for EUR/USD for July 17, 2019
The euro accumulates strength to overcome the signal level of 1.1193 on July
EUR/USD The euro fell by 47 points under external and internal pressure on Tuesday. At first, these were pessimistic indicators of ZEW business sentiment, then there was pressure from candidates for Great Britain's prime minister, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, regarding the conditions of Brexit and resulting in a strong decline in the pound, then strong data on retail sales in the United States were released. The German ZEW business sentiment index for July fell from -21.1 to...

EUR/USD

The euro fell by 47 points under external and internal pressure on Tuesday. At first, these were pessimistic indicators of ZEW business sentiment, then there was pressure from candidates for Great Britain's prime minister, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, regarding the conditions of Brexit and resulting in a strong decline in the pound, then strong data on retail sales in the United States were released.

The German ZEW business sentiment index for July fell from -21.1 to -24.5, while in the euro zone the index deteriorated from -20.2 to -20.3. The trade balance for May showed an increase from 15.7 to 20.2, but the pound sterling had already dropped by 50 points by this time. Retail sales in the US in June showed an increase of 0.4% against expectations of 0.1%. Industrial production showed zero growth in June, with a drop in capacity utilization to 77.9% from 78.1%, which in general did not cause pessimism.

analytics5d2ea89ba3719.png

On the daily scale chart, the price went below the price channel line and the Fibonacci level is 100.0%. Here, below the lines, there may not be a long consolidation, a set of forces before going under the signal level of 1.1193, after which we expect a long-term decline towards targets 1.1155 (Fibonacci level 110.0%), 1.1116 (a low of 30 May and 25 April).

analytics5d2ea8b129f0f.png

On the four-hour chart, the price consolidated below the balance and MACD lines, while the Marlin oscillator indicates a steady decline in the trend.

Forex analysis 17 Jul 2019, 04:24 UTC+00
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5 Trading recommendations for the currency pair GBPUSD - placement of trading orders (July 17)
For the last trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed a high volatility of 125 points, as a result of...
For the last trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed a high volatility of 125 points, as a result of overcoming the minimum of the current year. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the accumulation phase, after the corrective movement, has moved to the stage of the downward trend recovery, as a result of having a breakdown of the current year minimum of 1.2433. As written in the previous review, traders, after fixing the valley positions from the...

For the last trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed a high volatility of 125 points, as a result of overcoming the minimum of the current year. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the accumulation phase, after the corrective movement, has moved to the stage of the downward trend recovery, as a result of having a breakdown of the current year minimum of 1.2433. As written in the previous review, traders, after fixing the valley positions from the corrective movement, took a waiting position, analyzing a clear price fixation lower than 1.2500, where the primary bay was made in short positions. The tactic was quite successful. The first impulse made it possible to earn on the one-year low of 1.2433. The second bay in short positions was considered after fixing the price lower than 1.2430. Considering the trading chart in general terms (daily timeframe), we see that the clock basis (Impulse --- Correction) led us to the "Impulse" phase, thereby resuming the global downward trend. As I have repeatedly written in my reviews, the British currency is under great pressure and the update of the minimums of 2019 - 2018 --- 2017 ---- 2016 is not far off, but everything in due time, thereby working consistently and earning on this course.

The information and news background of the past day had statistics on Britain, where, as expected, the unemployment rate remained at the same, 3.8%, while the average wage, excluding and including the premium, rose to 3.6% and 3, 4% inclusive. The data in general in the UK was not bad, but it was not there, the pound flew back home, closing its eyes to all the positive statistics. What is the matter? Of course, in our favorite divorce process UK & EU. Once again, everyone remembered Brexit, and this time, there were several loud statements from both England and Brussels. Proud English knights in the person of former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson and current Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt say that the EU must make concessions to the agreement. European Commission officials are preparing for the fact that discussions on Brexit will become more hostile under the new British government. More specifically, the EU is preparing for the prospect that Boris Johnson will become the Prime Minister, whom the European Union considers to be an unpopular populist. All of the above leads to the fact that no agreement has been found. Everyone will take their position and we will see an unsuccessful exit of Britain from the EU - Hard Brexit.

No wonder we have several months in a row we heard persistent emissions from the media regarding the outflow of investments from Britain. The clouds over the English currency are condensing more and more densely.

Finally, statistics from the United States, was published yesterday. Retail sales data came out better than expected, accelerating from 2.9% to 3.4% with a forecast of 3.0%. Against the background, the dollar continued its rapid growth.

analytics5d2ed38cc4891.jpg

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on inflation in Britain, where it is expected to remain unchanged at 2.0%. In the afternoon, data will be released on the construction sector of the United States, where, in principle, also unchanged. Particular attention is paid to the information background, in the case of a regular release, criticism, or simply statements regarding Brexit.

United States 12:30 UTC+00 - Number of building permits issued (June): Prev. 1.299M ---> Forecast 1,300M

United States 12:30 UTC+00 - The volume of construction of new homes (June): Prev. 1.269M ---> Forecast of 1.261M

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quote is fixed below the low of the current year, forming a platform for the regrouping of trading forces. Stagnation - a pullback against the background of overheating short positions, of course, is considered by traders, in terms of fluctuations 1.2390 / 1.2440. It is worth considering such a moment that it will not be an inertial move against the background of yesterday's breakdown of key value. This is already a question. As I wrote earlier, traders have already gone into short positions and are just considering the current points in terms of further refills.

analytics5d2ed3a3c5e47.png

Based on the available information, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's specify them:

- Positions to buy are considered in the case of an obvious technical correction, probably in the case of price fixing higher than 1.2440.

- Many have already positions for sale, and the current refilling will be considered if the inertial move continues.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing the different sectors of timeframes (TF), we see that the indicators in the short, intraday and medium term, retain a downward interest against the backdrop of the discharge of the British currency.

analytics5d2edfaa453ad.png

Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.

(July 17 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 38 points. It is likely to assume that in case of continuation of the inertial course, volatility may continue to grow. Otherwise, a stagnation.

analytics5d2edfc11654b.png

Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.2430; 1.2500; 1.2620; 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 *; 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1,3300.

Support areas: 1.2350 **; 1.2100 **; 1.2000.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

*** The article is based on the principle of conducting a transaction with daily adjustment

Forex analysis 17 Jul 2019, 08:15 UTC+00
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6 Burning forecast 07/17/2019 EURUSD and trading recommendation
The euro under pressure
EURUSD rate dropped significantly from Monday to Tuesday. The reasons are the strengthening of the dollar on strong economic data, and a significant drop in the pound on reports of a high probability of Britain's withdrawal from the EU without an agreement. Today at 18:00 London time there will be a report from the Fed "Beige Book" - this can determine the movement of the market. We are waiting for the euro out of range. EURUSD: In terms of technical analysis, you can sell...

analytics5d2ebb977fb3a.jpg

EURUSD rate dropped significantly from Monday to Tuesday. The reasons are the strengthening of the dollar on strong economic data, and a significant drop in the pound on reports of a high probability of Britain's withdrawal from the EU without an agreement.

Today at 18:00 London time there will be a report from the Fed "Beige Book" - this can determine the movement of the market.

We are waiting for the euro out of range.

EURUSD: In terms of technical analysis, you can sell from 1.1190,

You can buy from 1.1290

Forex analysis 17 Jul 2019, 06:05 UTC+00
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7 Forecast for GBP/USD on July 17, 2019
The pound sterling is approaching the first goal of the bears at 1.2296
GBP/USD The pound sterling fell by 110 points yesterday due to the tightening of the rhetoric of both candidates for the post of British prime minister, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, regarding the conditions of Brexit, namely along the rigid border with Ireland, which could later lead to Brexit without a transitional deal. Also elected to the post of head of the European Commission, Ursula der Layen mentioned the harsh conditions for the UK, although she allowed the possibility of...

GBP/USD

The pound sterling fell by 110 points yesterday due to the tightening of the rhetoric of both candidates for the post of British prime minister, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, regarding the conditions of Brexit, namely along the rigid border with Ireland, which could later lead to Brexit without a transitional deal. Also elected to the post of head of the European Commission, Ursula der Layen mentioned the harsh conditions for the UK, although she allowed the possibility of another postponement of it's date.

Inflation figures for June will be released today in the UK. Forecasts for them are more negative than positive. The base CPI could increase from 1.8% y/y to 1.7% y/y, but the overall CPI is projected to remain unchanged at 2.0% y/y and the producer price index significantly pulls down the overall situation - the forecast is -1.0 % y/y versus 0.0% y/y in May. The price index for residential real estate could drop from 1.4% y/y to 1.2% y/y.

analytics5d2ea6eb6d942.png

The price is in a downward trend on the daily chart and there are no obstacles to reaching the target level of 1.2296, which is the support for the embedded line of the price channel.

analytics5d2ea7008584b.png

On the four-hour chart, the price is securely consolidated below the balance line and the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator is slightly bent up, but this is a sign of a small discharge of the indicator before it decreases further.

Forex analysis 17 Jul 2019, 04:25 UTC+00
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8 Powell reaffirms the position of the Fed: EUR is neutral on Wednesday, the GBP is facing a strong fall
Once again, Donald Trump reminded the markets that the US is ready to increase tariffs by another $325 billion in...
Once again, Donald Trump reminded the markets that the US is ready to increase tariffs by another $325 billion in Chinese imports, which negatively affected investor sentiment. The S&P 500 closed the day below the record at 3004.04. At the same time, the Asian markets also traded in the red zone on Wednesday morning while ignoring the news of Iran's readiness for negotiations, which led to a strong decline in oil prices. Markets are preparing for the FOMC meeting on July 31 and pay...

Once again, Donald Trump reminded the markets that the US is ready to increase tariffs by another $325 billion in Chinese imports, which negatively affected investor sentiment. The S&P 500 closed the day below the record at 3004.04. At the same time, the Asian markets also traded in the red zone on Wednesday morning while ignoring the news of Iran's readiness for negotiations, which led to a strong decline in oil prices.

Markets are preparing for the FOMC meeting on July 31 and pay attention primarily to the comments of Fed officials, not to macroeconomic data. Yesterday, Jerome Powell confirmed the main points of his speech to Congress, saying that the Fed is closely monitoring the risks of a slowdown in the US and is ready to act to support the expansion. In a similar vein, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Evans, and the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, were interpreted by the markets as a willingness to reduce the rate on July 31.

EUR/USD pair

The ZEW business activity indicator continued to decline this month. In Germany, the decline from -21.1p to -24.5 exceeded forecasts for the eurozone and as a whole, the minimum decline from -20.2p to 020.3p. Nevertheless, this does not cancel the development of negative trends.

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The main pessimism is associated with the continuing reduction of new orders in the German industry. Moreover, there are no signs that growing uncertainty can be overcome in the foreseeable future.

The ECB is preparing a new QE program, which should deter the strengthening of the euro. However, the Fed is also considering actions to change the liquidity policy following the latest FOMC protocols. The termination of the quantitative tightening will lead to the fact that excess liquidity in the United States stops reducing, while the Treasury will reduce its current account with the Fed, which will add liquidity in the banking sector. All these actions will in one way or another contribute to the weakening of the dollar and the EUR/USD rate will rise if the ECB does not take special measures to limit this growth.

The ECB meeting will take place on July 25 and until that time, the market will guess which trend will prevail that increases the uncertainty.

Today, Eurostat will present data on consumer inflation in June and forecasts are neutral. The euro has no direction and will most likely spend the day in a range whose lower limit is at the minimum of the week 1.1201 and the upper at 1.1233/38. A possible overrun is unlikely to be sustainable.

GBP/USD pair

The pound slowed down after the publication of a report on the state of the labor market over the past 3 months. Unemployment remained at 3.8%, which corresponds to the minimum since 1974 but wage growth rose from 3.6% premiums, excluding 3.4%. Both indicators exceeded forecasts, which eventually allowed the pound to stop the decline.

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Two more important releases are expected before the end of the week, particularly the report on consumer inflation on Wednesday and data on retail sales on Thursday. Both reports will somehow clarify the picture of both consumer activity and inflation expectations. From this side, the pressure on the pound is likely to decrease and political uncertainty will remain the main negative factors.

It is expected that the new head of the Conservative Party and as a result, the Cabinet of Ministers will be the famous Euro-skeptic Boris Johnson. There are growing chances for a tough Brexit scenario, for a further fall in investments and a decrease in corporate income, which will lead to a reduction in tax collection and will force the Bank of England to look for ways to mitigate monetary policy.

Growing uncertainty significantly reduces the likelihood of a pound rising in the next two weeks, before the FOMC meeting. Corrective recovery is possible to the resistance of 1.2438, but the development of the downward movement is more likely after breaking through the important support of 1.2424. The pound can find the closest support in the 1.2270/90 zone and the long-term target moves to the level 1.18.

Forex analysis 17 Jul 2019, 06:51 UTC+00
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9 Overview of GBP/USD on July 17. The forecast for the "Regression Channels". The UK is racing full speed to the "hard" Brexit
Yesterday, the British currency had grounds for growth, but what is the use of them if traders do not want to invest...
4-hour timeframe Technical data: The upper linear regression channel: direction – down. The lower linear regression channel: direction – down. The moving average (20; smoothed) – down. CCI: -152.8607 Today in the UK, the consumer price index for June will be published, however, judging by yesterday's market reaction to reports on wages, macroeconomic information from Britain is not particularly interested in traders. Markets are waiting for the completion of the election of...

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -152.8607

Today in the UK, the consumer price index for June will be published, however, judging by yesterday's market reaction to reports on wages, macroeconomic information from Britain is not particularly interested in traders. Markets are waiting for the completion of the election of the Prime Minister, the completion of Brexit, or at least some clarity on it. Thus, we believe that even if inflation accelerates today, it will not help the British currency very much. An upward correction to the moving average is possible, but it is still quite difficult for the bulls to count on something more. Meanwhile, the EU has once again disowned any new negotiations with the UK under the terms of the Brexit agreement. TThe EU placed particular emphasis on London's attempt to exclude from the agreement a point on "backstop", which will allow Northern Ireland to remain in the EU Customs Union after Brexit. The European Union said that the exclusion of this paragraph from the agreement is equivalent to the cancellation of the entire agreement. Thus, we once again draw attention to the fact that both UK Prime Minister candidates, Johnson and Hunt, can promise a lot of different things, but how many of them will be fulfilled? However, this is a normal situation for elections, when promises are maximum, and their implementation is possible. The most important conclusion from this is the approaching "hard" Brexit, traders feel it and continue to get rid of the pound sterling.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2390

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2421

R2 – 1.2451

R3 – 1.2482

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP/USD resumed its downward trend. Thus, it is again recommended to sell pound sterling with the closest target of 1.2390, after which all Murray levels are recalculated.

It will be possible to buy the pound/dollar pair with the goals of 1.2543 and 1.2573 not earlier than the price consolidation back above the moving average line, but with the minimum lots.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Forex analysis 17 Jul 2019, 05:21 UTC+00
Relevance Relevance: up to 18.07.19 - 05:00 UTC+00
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10 Gold puts on currency wars
Foreign exchange intervention will force investors to increase the share of precious metals in portfolios
Strong statistics on retail sales and the resistance of industrial production to external shocks have somewhat cooled the fervor of the bulls over gold. The USD index rose to weekly highs as investors understand that the US economy looks better than its competitors. If the Fed mitigates monetary policy, other central banks in the world will do the same. Moreover, the response to US foreign exchange interventions will be similar actions by other countries. Since the beginning of the...

Strong statistics on retail sales and the resistance of industrial production to external shocks have somewhat cooled the fervor of the bulls over gold. The USD index rose to weekly highs as investors understand that the US economy looks better than its competitors. If the Fed mitigates monetary policy, other central banks in the world will do the same. Moreover, the response to US foreign exchange interventions will be similar actions by other countries.

Since the beginning of the year, the precious metal has added about 10% due to the escalation of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing and the Fed's intention to lower the federal funds rate in response to the slowing global economy. Despite strong data on retail sales and industrial production, the derivatives market still gives out a 27% chance of a 50 bp drop in interest rates at the July FOMC meeting. Jerome Powell, in a speech to bankers in Paris, said that much had changed since the global economic crisis. Central banks operate under protectionism and political pressure and must take into account feedbacks: just as the States influence the global economy, it also influences the American economy.

Indeed, investors believe in the monetary expansion of the Fed in similar actions of other central banks. Regulators from Australia and New Zealand are already lowering rates, queueing for the ECB and the Bank of England. As a result, the global debt market returns will continue to be at historically low levels, which is a bullish factor for XAU/USD.

Dynamics of central bank rates

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According to Deutsche Bank, if the States unleash a currency war and use currency interventions while other countries will respond similarly, then a better investment than gold will be difficult to find. Donald Trump's dissatisfaction with the allegedly competitive devaluation of the euro and the yuan has long been known but it's hard to assume that the pressure on the US dollar will be coordinated as in 2011, when several countries were selling a fairly strong yen. Thus, it is not worthwhile to exclude reciprocal currency interventions from the central banks-competitors of the Fed. The weakening of the main monetary units, coupled with the historically low rates of the global debt market, creates a favorable environment for the purchase of precious metals in the medium and long-term investment horizon.

The disappointing corporate reporting of American issuers can provide him with short-term support. Currently, the S&P 500 is growing due to expectations of a loosening of the Fed's monetary policy and low borrowing costs. Nevertheless, the slowdown in the US GDP and weak corporate results can trigger a wave of correction of stock indices and increase the demand for safe-haven assets. Bloomberg analysts predict a recession of profits with a decline over two quarters in a row, which has not happened since 2016.

Technically, the breakthrough of supports by $1,398 (23.6% of the CD wave of the maternal pattern AB = CD) and $1,393 per ounce (the lower boundary of the triangle) will increase the risks of gold recoil in the direction of $1,372 and $ 1,352. To resume the rally, it requires a confident test of the June highs.

Gold daily chart

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Forex analysis 17 Jul 2019, 12:07 UTC+00
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