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1 Gold analysis for April 23, 2019
Broken neckline of the complex head and shoulders pattern is dominating the Gold's background. Watch for selling...
Gold has been trading downwards as we expected. The price tested the level of $1.268.00. Our short position on Gold from yesterday is progressing good and we expect more downside. According to the H4 time-frame, we found more acceptance below the key support cluster (purple rectangle) at the price of $1.280.00, which is sign that sellers are in big control on the Gold. The 4-month long complex head and shoulders is dominating the background that sellers are very active on the Gold. As...

Gold has been trading downwards as we expected. The price tested the level of $1.268.00. Our short position on Gold from yesterday is progressing good and we expect more downside.

analytics5cbf10881a8a2.jpg

According to the H4 time-frame, we found more acceptance below the key support cluster (purple rectangle) at the price of $1.280.00, which is sign that sellers are in big control on the Gold. The 4-month long complex head and shoulders is dominating the background that sellers are very active on the Gold. As long as the Gold is trading below the $1.315.00, we will be bearish.

Our recommendation: We are bearish from yesterday at $1.275.00 but we will add after every decent upward correction structure more selling position. Our advice is to watch for selling positions only. The downward targets are set at $1.211.30 and $1.196.50.

Forex analysis 23 Apr 2019, 12:18 UTC+00
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2 April 23, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
Significant bearish rejection was demonstrated earlier around the price level of 1.3120 Since then, Short-term...
On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380. A weekly bearish gap pushed the pair below the uptrend line (almost reaching 1.2960) before the bullish breakout above short-term bearish channel was achieved on March 11. Shortly after, the GBPUSD pair demonstrated weak bullish momentum towards 1.3200 then 1.3360 where the GBPUSD failed to achieve a higher high above the previous top achieved on February 27. Instead, the depicted recent bearish channel was...

analytics5cbf2ba92a97d.jpg

On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380.

A weekly bearish gap pushed the pair below the uptrend line (almost reaching 1.2960) before the bullish breakout above short-term bearish channel was achieved on March 11.

Shortly after, the GBPUSD pair demonstrated weak bullish momentum towards 1.3200 then 1.3360 where the GBPUSD failed to achieve a higher high above the previous top achieved on February 27.

Instead, the depicted recent bearish channel was established.

Significant bearish pressure was demonstrated towards 1.3150 - 1.3120 where the depicted uptrend line failed to provide any bullish support leading to obvious bearish breakdown.

On March 29, the price levels of 1.2980 (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel) demonstrated significant bullish rejection.

This brought the GBPUSD pair again towards the price zone of (1.3160-1.3180) where the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel as well as the backside of the depicted uptrend line came to meet the pair.

Bearish rejection was anticipated around the mentioned price levels (1.3150-1.3180). However, the GBPUSD bullish pullback failed to pursue towards the mentioned zone.

Instead, significant bearish rejection was demonstrated earlier around the price level of 1.3120.

Since then, Short-term outlook has turned into bearish towards 1.2900, 1.2850 then 1.2800 where the lower limit of the depicted channel comes to meet the GBPUSD pair.

Forex analysis 23 Apr 2019, 14:16 UTC+00
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3 Bitcoin analysis for April 23, 2019
BTC is approaching key resistance at the price of $5.700. Watch for potential reversal
From America to the United Kingdom and from Russia to Australia, cryptocurrency taxation in major bitcoin strongholds is complicated. Contradictory or non-existent laws, excessive red tape, and maddeningly vague guidelines have conspired to make the tax-paying process more arduous than it need be. Now, a number of advocates are pushing for simplified crypto tax guidelines. Fixing the taxation will be main focus in the next period for cryptos. Technical picture: According to the H4...

From America to the United Kingdom and from Russia to Australia, cryptocurrency taxation in major bitcoin strongholds is complicated. Contradictory or non-existent laws, excessive red tape, and maddeningly vague guidelines have conspired to make the tax-paying process more arduous than it need be. Now, a number of advocates are pushing for simplified crypto tax guidelines. Fixing the taxation will be main focus in the next period for cryptos.

Technical picture:

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According to the H4 time-frame, as we mentioned yesterday, the potential for bull move and re-test of upper channel diagonal was in the play and that exactly happened. Since the BTC is trading near the critical resistance at $5.700, our advice is to watch for potential reversal and confirmation of reversal. To confirm reversal, you want to see series of lower lows and lower highs. For now, buyers are in control and the next upward station is set at $5.700. In case of reversal, watch for supports at $5.327, $5.191 and $4.650.

Forex analysis 23 Apr 2019, 12:36 UTC+00
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4 What is the dollar waiting for this week? The market is betting on growth
The current "dovish" tone of regulators supports risky assets, and this support will continue until major central...
On Tuesday, the dollar returned to growth against a basket of major currencies, the Canadian dollar continues to receive support from rising oil prices after the US decision to tighten restrictions on exports of Iranian oil from next month. The data showed that home sales in the secondary housing market in the US declined in March more than expected due to limited supply, and data on new home sales will be published later. Of course, they can give some guidance on the state of the US...

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On Tuesday, the dollar returned to growth against a basket of major currencies, the Canadian dollar continues to receive support from rising oil prices after the US decision to tighten restrictions on exports of Iranian oil from next month. The data showed that home sales in the secondary housing market in the US declined in March more than expected due to limited supply, and data on new home sales will be published later. Of course, they can give some guidance on the state of the US economy, but a clearer picture should appear on Friday after the publication of the GDP report.

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Investors should expect an increase in volatility in the coming days, when traders will return to work after the holidays and if US GDP will grow. This week may be convincing evidence that a reversal towards the "dovish policy" from leading central banks, and in particular from the Fed, was enough to change the dynamics of global growth. As for the dollar, there is currently no reason for a serious fall. The recent strengthening of the yen against the dollar will be temporary, and as long as central banks around the world refrain from normalizing politics by raising interest rates, the dollar will feel more than confident. The current "dovish" tone of the regulators supports risky assets, and this support will continue until major Central banks take action to normalize monetary policy.

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News 23 Apr 2019, 11:10 UTC+00
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5 USD/CHF. The franc drops to multi-year lows
Today, the US dollar is showing steady growth across the market amid favorable corporate reporting for the first...
Today, the US dollar is showing steady growth across the market amid favorable corporate reporting for the first quarter of this year. Such dynamics is reflected in all dollar pairs, but among them we can separately distinguish the USD/CHF. The weakness of the franc has been celebrated for more than a month. In early April, the greenback overcame the level of parity against the Swiss currency for the first time since January 2017. Today, the pair has updated a two-year high, jumping to the...

Today, the US dollar is showing steady growth across the market amid favorable corporate reporting for the first quarter of this year. Such dynamics is reflected in all dollar pairs, but among them we can separately distinguish the USD/CHF.

The weakness of the franc has been celebrated for more than a month. In early April, the greenback overcame the level of parity against the Swiss currency for the first time since January 2017. Today, the pair has updated a two-year high, jumping to the level of 1.0227. Such dynamics is caused not only by the revaluation of the US currency - the "chief" also becomes cheaper for its own reasons, which can be clearly seen from the dynamics of the EUR/CHF cross pair.

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As you know, the Swiss regulator often looks back on its European counterparts - the economic interrelation forces one to consider (or at least take into account) their maneuvers. For example, after easing the monetary policy of the ECB, the SNB decided to introduce a negative rate, subsequently reducing the list of so-called "beneficiaries."

Now, when the European regulator actually announced its intention to start the reverse process (having completed QE and talking about the possibility of raising the rate next year), a similar reaction was expected from the SNB. But today the chairman of the central bank of Switzerland empathically and categorically rejected this opportunity. Thomas Jordan said that such a decision was dictated primarily by low inflation, which still cannot reach even the one percent mark. So, according to the latest data, the consumer price index in March rose to 0.7% in annual terms and to 0.5% on a monthly basis. The structure of the indicator suggests that a slight growth in inflation is due to the increase in prices for international tours and air travel. However, despite the positive dynamics, the rate of inflation growth looks extremely weak. For example, from May to October last year, the CPI fluctuated in the range of 1% -1.2% (y/y). Then the index began to gradually decline, and in January it reached a low of 0.6%. Therefore, an increase in the indicator to 0.7% cannot be considered a positive trend, since inflation is too far from its target level.

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In addition, there is still a negative gap between actual and potential production, while the Swiss franc remains "significantly overvalued." In other words, Jordan hinted rather transparently that in the foreseeable future the Swiss regulator is not going to follow the path of the ECB, nor, especially, the path of the Fed. Moreover, during his speech, the head of the SNB allowed further softening of the parameters of monetary policy. Firstly, we are talking about intervention in the foreign exchange market (to be applied with almost a 100% probability), , and secondly, about reducing the interest rate further into the negative area: Jordan did not rule out this option today. Indeed, according to the SNB representative, besides the problems voiced above, there are a few more. In particular, it is the low profitability of companies and the associated "caution in hiring new employees." Thus, the regulator conducts a causal relationship between the expensive franc, the profitability of enterprises, unemployment and consumer activity, which ultimately affects the dynamics of inflation. The similar rhetoric of the head of the SNB puts a lot of pressure on the franc. In addition, the demand for Swiss currency declined due to the risk-taking against the background of positive statistics from China and progress in trade negotiations between Beijing and Washington. Such a fundamental picture pushes the pair to new price highs - especially against the background of the growth of the US currency. In this context, Friday will play a special role for the USD/CHF pair. First, the United States will publish data on the growth of the American economy. In the 4th quarter of 2018, the GDP index reached 2.2% - and according to the forecasts of most experts, in the first quarter of this year the US economy will show a similar result. If the real figures do not coincide with the forecast, then the dollar will fall into the zone of price turbulence - especially if the result is higher than expected. In such a case, the rhetoric of Fed members may again become tougher. In addition, the head of the SNB, Thomas Jordan, will again speak on Friday - he will give a speech at the general meeting of shareholders of the central bank. If he confirms the intention to reduce the interest rate, the franc will receive another informational reason for further devaluation.

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From a technical point of view, the situation is as follows. The pair on all "higher" timeframes (from H4 and above) is on the top line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which indicates the priority of an upward direction. On these timeframes, the Ichimoku indicator has formed a bullish "Parade of lines" signal. The strongest resistance level is at 1.0250 - this is the top line of the Bollinger Bands on the monthly chart. If the pair consolidates above it, then the probability of growth to multi-year high of 1.0350 will increase in many ways.

Forex analysis 23 Apr 2019, 21:50 UTC+00
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6 Brent got dope from Iran
Quotes of the North Sea grade of oil soared to the highest marks since the beginning of November
To say that the news about the fact that Washington completed the grace period for buyers of Iranian oil has disturbed the financial markets - not to say anything. The counterparties of Tehran seriously counted on its prolongation, perhaps with some reduction in quotas but a total ban drove the "bears" on Brent and WTI into a stupor. Black gold jumped almost to the semi-annual maxim amid fears of supply disruptions and growing global demand. Confidence of Donald Trump that the United States,...

To say that the news about the fact that Washington completed the grace period for buyers of Iranian oil has disturbed the financial markets - not to say anything. The counterparties of Tehran seriously counted on its prolongation, perhaps with some reduction in quotas but a total ban drove the "bears" on Brent and WTI into a stupor. Black gold jumped almost to the semi-annual maxim amid fears of supply disruptions and growing global demand. Confidence of Donald Trump that the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates will be able to close the gap will keep the steadily upward movement of oil.

Before the imposition of sanctions last year, Iran was the fourth OPEC producer with a production volume of 4 million b/d. According to estimates by consulting company FGE Energy, the figure fell to 2.5 million b/s and exports to 1-1.3 million b/d to date. However, there is an opinion on the market taking into account illegal shipments, their total volume abroad is about 1.9 million b/s. The lion's part falls on China, Turkey, India, Japan, and South Korea. The first two states have already expressed dissatisfaction with the abolition of the grace period. Washington warned buyers about sanctions against them in case of refusal to reduce the export of Iranian oil to zero. In this situation, everything depends on Tehran, which must abandon its nuclear program.

Iranian oil exports

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According to Goldman Sachs, the take-off of Brent and WTI quotes is associated with a surprise effect, while the emergency reserve capacity of Saudi Arabia, OEA and Russia is estimated to be at 2 million b/s and can increase to 2.5 million b/ s in 2020. This is more than required to close the gap, which will arise as a result of the reduction of Iranian exports around 1 million b/s. The bank predicts that the North Sea variety will stabilize in the range of $70-75 per barrel in the near future.

The decision of Donald Trump really looks like a surprise because he was already taking a tough stance on Iran in 2018. However, it softened due to the negative consequences for the US economy of rising prices for black gold. Will the White House master back down from his plans this time too? This would have been a catastrophe for the "bulls" in Brent and WTI, which increased the long positions in oil and oil products by 564 million barrels in equivalent for 14 weeks in a row, which is one of the longest rally figures for the entire history of accounting.

Therefore, it is quite possible that Trump hopes to bring differences to the ranks of OPEC and other producing countries. Russia is already faced with a choice, whether to lose its market share or withdraw from the contract to reduce production. Further price increases will increase the risk of terminating the agreement, which will be a strong argument for selling oil.

A technically confident breakthrough of resistance at $72.75 per barrel (61.8% of the CD wave) as part of the transformation of the Shark pattern at 5-0 increased the risks of continuing the northern rally of the North Sea variety to $78.95. The level of $72.75 becomes important to support while Brent quotes are above it, the bulls control the market situation.

Brent daily chart

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Forex analysis 23 Apr 2019, 12:00 UTC+00
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7 EUR./USD analysis for April 23, 2019
Broken larger upward channel in the background plus the bearish flag pattern most recently. Watch for selling...
EUR/USD has been trading downwards as we expected. The price tested the level of 1.1210. Our short position on EUR/USD from yesterday is progressing good and we expect more downside. According to the H4 time-frame, we found the successful breakout of the bearish flag pattern, which is sign of the professional re-selling. Key support is seen at the price of 1.1183 and you should watch to at least scale half of the position there. In case the EUR/USD breaks the level of 1.1183, watch for...

EUR/USD has been trading downwards as we expected. The price tested the level of 1.1210. Our short position on EUR/USD from yesterday is progressing good and we expect more downside.

analytics5cbf12267526c.jpg

According to the H4 time-frame, we found the successful breakout of the bearish flag pattern, which is sign of the professional re-selling. Key support is seen at the price of 1.1183 and you should watch to at least scale half of the position there. In case the EUR/USD breaks the level of 1.1183, watch for potential test of 1.1065 (Fibonacci expansion 100%).

Our recommendation: We are bearish from 1.1230 with targets at 1.1183 and 1.1065. Protective stop is palced at 1.1280.

Forex analysis 23 Apr 2019, 12:25 UTC+00
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8 April 23 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
Conservative traders should be waiting for a bullish pullback towards the newly-established supply zone around 1.1235...
On January 10th, the market initiated the depicted bearish channel around 1.1570. Since then, the EURUSD pair has been moving within the depicted channel with slight bearish tendency. On March 7th, recent bearish movement was demonstrated towards 1.1175 (channel's lower limit) where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated. On March 18, a significant bullish attempt was executed above 1.1380 (the upper limit of the Highlighted-channel) demonstrating a false/temporary bullish...

analytics5cbf2f85506ff.jpg

On January 10th, the market initiated the depicted bearish channel around 1.1570.

Since then, the EURUSD pair has been moving within the depicted channel with slight bearish tendency.

On March 7th, recent bearish movement was demonstrated towards 1.1175 (channel's lower limit) where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated.

On March 18, a significant bullish attempt was executed above 1.1380 (the upper limit of the Highlighted-channel) demonstrating a false/temporary bullish breakout.

On March 22, significant bearish pressure was demonstrated towards 1.1280 then 1.1220.

Few weeks ago, a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated around 1.1200. This enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1300-1.1315 (supply zone) where recent bearish rejection was being demonstrated.

Short-term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.1280 (61.8% Fibonacci) followed by further bearish decline towards 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci).

For Intraday traders, the price zone around 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci) stood as a temporary demand area which paused the ongoing bearish momentum for a while before bearish breakdown could be executed today.

Conservative traders should be waiting for a bullish pullback towards the newly-established supply zone around 1.1235 for a valid SELL entry.

Moreover, bearish persistence below 1.1235 enhances further bearish decline towards 1.1170 then 1.1115.

Trade recommendations :

A valid SELL entry can be taken around 1.1235 when a bullish pullback occurs.

TP levels to be located around 1.1170 and 1.1115. SL should be placed above 1.1260.

Forex analysis 23 Apr 2019, 14:33 UTC+00
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9 Is best over for eurozone?
Pundits of economics are nostalgic about the booming years in the eurozone the recent past. However, the robust...
Pundits of economics are nostalgic about the booming years in the eurozone in the recent past. However, the robust economic growth was followed by a protracted slowdown. Some pessimistic analysts even discovered signs of a looming crisis. One thing is obvious: the most advanced economies in the eurozone will not be able to perform at full steam as they did in 2017. The question is still open when the eurozone will revive its steady GDP rates. “I am not surprised...

Pundits of economics are nostalgic about the booming years in the eurozone in the recent past. However, the robust economic growth was followed by a protracted slowdown. Some pessimistic analysts even discovered signs of a looming crisis.

One thing is obvious: the most advanced economies in the eurozone will not be able to perform at full steam as they did in 2017. The question is still open when the eurozone will revive its steady GDP rates. “I am not surprised that growth is coming down because in 2017 the growth rate in the euro area was almost twice the potential growth rate, that could not continue very long,” Chief Executive Officer of the European Financial Stability Facility Klaus Regling told in an interview to CNBC. “The output gap — the amount by which the actual output of an economy falls short of its potential output — is now closed,” he added. He expected such developments. “The IMF revised down the growth figure for the euro area to 1.3%. There was some temporary effect, particularly in Germany in the second half of the last year which has a negative overhang in 2019,” the head of the bailout fund noted.

"We will not see in the next two, three years the growth rates of 2017. It's quite OK to say that the best is over, but it doesn't mean that there is a crisis," the expert commented on lackluster fundamentals in the eurozone.   

Forex Humor 23 Apr 2019, 13:43 UTC+00
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10 Is best over for eurozone?
Pundits of economics are nostalgic about the booming years in the eurozone the recent past. However, the robust...
Pundits of economics are nostalgic about the booming years in the eurozone in the recent past. However, the robust economic growth was followed by a protracted slowdown. Some pessimistic analysts even discovered signs of a looming crisis. One thing is obvious: the most advanced economies in the eurozone will not be able to perform at full steam as they did in 2017. The question is still open when the eurozone will revive its steady GDP rates. “I am not surprised...

Pundits of economics are nostalgic about the booming years in the eurozone in the recent past. However, the robust economic growth was followed by a protracted slowdown. Some pessimistic analysts even discovered signs of a looming crisis.

One thing is obvious: the most advanced economies in the eurozone will not be able to perform at full steam as they did in 2017. The question is still open when the eurozone will revive its steady GDP rates. “I am not surprised that growth is coming down because in 2017 the growth rate in the euro area was almost twice the potential growth rate, that could not continue very long,” Chief Executive Officer of the European Financial Stability Facility Klaus Regling told in an interview to CNBC. “The output gap — the amount by which the actual output of an economy falls short of its potential output — is now closed,” he added. He expected such developments. “The IMF revised down the growth figure for the euro area to 1.3%. There was some temporary effect, particularly in Germany in the second half of the last year which has a negative overhang in 2019,” the head of the bailout fund noted.

"We will not see in the next two, three years the growth rates of 2017. It's quite OK to say that the best is over, but it doesn't mean that there is a crisis," the expert commented on lackluster fundamentals in the eurozone.


Forex Humor 23 Apr 2019, 13:45 UTC+00
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