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Trading plan for the EURUSD May 21, 2018
Last week the downward medium-term movement of the pair resumed after a short set of a new position and the unloading...
Last week the downward medium-term movement of the pair resumed after a short set of a new position and the unloading of some of the old selling. This makes it possible to look at the depreciation at the same angle as two weeks ago.Banking ranges.To analyze the situation, consider the movement in the last three weeks. The first thing that catches your eye is the increase in the rate of two weeks ago, which fits into the Fed's interest rate of 1.75%. The resumption of the depreciation...

Last week the downward medium-term movement of the pair resumed after a short set of a new position and the unloading of some of the old selling. This makes it possible to look at the depreciation at the same angle as two weeks ago.

Banking ranges.

To analyze the situation, consider the movement in the last three weeks. The first thing that catches your eye is the increase in the rate of two weeks ago, which fits into the Fed's interest rate of 1.75%. The resumption of the depreciation indicates continuing operations that do not prevent the weakening of the European currency. The deadline of the previous medium and the movement relative to it indicate a medium-term downward priority. The purpose of the decline can be set at an interest rate range of 1.75% (1.1648).

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The main trading decisions should be aimed at finding selling of the trading instrument as close as possible to the ECB's compilation area. The purpose of the fall is the level of the Fed's interest rate 1.1648. Selling will have a favorable risk-to-profit ratio, and since the downward movement remains a medium-term momentum, the probability of it working out will be 70%.

The formation of an alternative growth model will require the absorption of the last fall of the pair from the previous environment. The rate should be fixed above the zone of bank compilation, which will allow considering the cancellation of the descending model. Buying will still be corrective, but they can already be considered as an alternative, on an intraday-intraday level. The position of the new compilation of the ECB will be important, which will happen on Wednesday.

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Forex analysis 21 May 2018, 04:24 UTC+00
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Trading plan for the GBPUSD on May 21, 2018
The current month is the formation of a medium-term accumulation zone with a change in the resistance zone in the...
The current month is the formation of a medium-term accumulation zone with a change in the resistance zone in the direction of the depreciation rate. The second half of last week indicates the continuation of the flat movement. The closest target of the fall is the Bank of England rate range 0.5% (1.3420), the test of which will determine the further priority. In order to stay in the flat range, the pair needs to stay above the specified support level. If the closing of US sessions will occur...

The current month is the formation of a medium-term accumulation zone with a change in the resistance zone in the direction of the depreciation rate. The second half of last week indicates the continuation of the flat movement. The closest target of the fall is the Bank of England rate range 0.5% (1.3420), the test of which will determine the further priority. In order to stay in the flat range, the pair needs to stay above the specified support level. If the closing of US sessions will occur below the rate level, the medium-term momentum will continue, and the CB compilation zone will remain a strong resistance.

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According to this downward dynamics, it is clear that the priority transactions continue to be selling, while the rate is trading below the defining resistance zone. In order for the reversal pattern to take shape and the purchases to come to the front, it will be necessary to finish one of the US sessions on Monday or Tuesday above the compilation zone of the Bank of England. This will allow to consider work within the framework of an informed medium-term flat, where the first target will be the maximum of last week, and further growth will depend on the price reaction to this extremum. Purchases above the compilation zone are not profitable, as there will not be a profitable risk-to-profit ratio. For this reason, it remains favorable to wait for prices for the selling of the trading instrument and to monitor the reaction of prices to banking ranges.

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Forex analysis 21 May 2018, 04:25 UTC+00
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Trading plan AUD / USD pair 05/21/18
The movement of the pair in the current month indicates the formation of a medium-term accumulation zone. This can be...
The movement of the pair in the current month indicates the formation of a medium-term accumulation zone. This can be determined by the location of the compilation zones of the Central Bank. Last week, the growth rate reached the level of 1.5% (0.7550), which led to its decline. Last week, the movement was once again rising from the compilation zone of the bank, which indicates a possible growth target with the rate level of 1.5% (0.7589). Reaching this level will require fixing purchases and...

The movement of the pair in the current month indicates the formation of a medium-term accumulation zone. This can be determined by the location of the compilation zones of the Central Bank. Last week, the growth rate reached the level of 1.5% (0.7550), which led to its decline. Last week, the movement was once again rising from the compilation zone of the bank, which indicates a possible growth target with the rate level of 1.5% (0.7589). Reaching this level will require fixing purchases and finding a pattern for sale. The ascending model will remain the priority until the course trades above the compilation zone of the Bank of Australia.

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When making purchases, it is necessary to take into account the risk-to-profit ratio, since it will not be profitable at the last week's high. This suggests the need to find more favorable prices for the purchase of the instrument. Reduction to the compilation zone of the bank will give an opportunity to buy at the most favorable prices. To disrupt the upstream structure, one of the important trading sessions (Asian and American) requires closing down of the compilation zone. This will allow us to consider a new top-down priority in the future. It is important to note that It is important to note that next Wednesday, there will be regular operations on the open market, which will allow us to determine the new compilation zone of the Bank of Australia and can shift the support level higher.

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On current marks, it is necessary to track the formation of the pattern, since it can enable and sell to the compilation area and buy to the interest rate level. Within the intraday movement, both ranges give a good risk-to-profit ratio, so it can be ignored.

Forex analysis 21 May 2018, 08:04 UTC+00
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Growth prospects for the dollar remain strong
The US dollar was in demand again last week, supported by the resumption of growth in yields of government bonds of...
The US dollar was in demand again last week, supported by the resumption of growth in yields of government bonds of the US Treasury.The dollar continues to receive significant support. Its index, reflecting the dynamics of the basket of major currencies, resumed growth last week after a period of uncertainty, which was the year before, reaching 93.58 points. In fact, we can say that the dollar rally in the foreign exchange market continues, which began exactly a month ago.As for the causes of...

The US dollar was in demand again last week, supported by the resumption of growth in yields of government bonds of the US Treasury.

The dollar continues to receive significant support. Its index, reflecting the dynamics of the basket of major currencies, resumed growth last week after a period of uncertainty, which was the year before, reaching 93.58 points. In fact, we can say that the dollar rally in the foreign exchange market continues, which began exactly a month ago.

As for the causes of this phenomenon, it lies on the surface. The first and most important is that the Fed continues the process of hiking interest rates, the second reason is the growth of profitability against the background of raising the cost of borrowing. And the third is not a merit of the dollar, it is a clear weakness of almost all major currencies which are likely to remain under pressure for some more time due to the fact that central banks whose currencies are traded on the Big Forex against the dollar most likely will not speed up the process of hiking interest rates or stopping incentive measures, as in the case of Japanese Central Bank.

Last week, the markets had to again recall the fragility of hopes that liquidity conditions would remain at low levels as before. The increase in the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note above the key level of 3.0% and consolidation above it is a strong signal, in fact it suggests burying the financial conditions that ruled the markets in the last ten years. Such dynamics of events that occurs in the United States suggests that the financial world, as well as world markets are on the threshold of significant changes that are sure to have an impact.

But back to the events of Friday, which once again confirmed our assumption that the world's central banks will not hurry to follow in the footsteps of the American regulator. On the one hand, this is due to the slowdown in economic growth, as in the UK, on the other, the slowdown in inflation in the Eurozone, Japan and Canada.

On Friday, the published data of the consumer price index (CPI) of Canada in annual terms showed a decline in growth to 2.2% from 2.3%, the monthly value of the indicator, however, managed to maintain an increase of 0.3%, but the basic retail sales index fell by 0.2%, while its growth was expected to be 0.5% in March against zero.

Assessing the published figures, we can say with a great deal of confidence that the Bank of Canada can suspend its desire to continue to hike interest rates, which in fact led to the weakening of the Canadian currency on the last day of the week.

And considering, at least, the short-term prospects of the currency market, I noticed that the probability of continued growth of the dollar remains extremely high.

The forecast for today:

The EUR/USD pair remains in a short-term downtrend. It is trading above 1.1735 on the wave of falling expectations that the ECB will radically change its monetary rate, as well as a high probability that the yield of US government bonds will continue to grow supporting the dollar. Against this background, the pair may fall to 1.1660 after a decline below the mark of 1.1735.

The GBP/USD pair broke out of the prolonged period of consolidation, falling below the mark of 1.3470, which opens the way for it to fall to 1.3300.

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Forex analysis 21 May 2018, 04:49 UTC+00
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Bitcoin analysis for May 21, 2018
Successful rejection of the upper diagonal of the channel. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities...
The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading dupwards.The price tested the level of $8.553. On May 19, a group of Bitcoin Cash (BCH) miners met after the Coingeek Conference in Hong Kong to discuss a new proposal which would fund BCH development and professional programmers who worked on the protocol. The funding would stem from a portion of the miners block reward, and attendees discussed donating between 1-5 percent of rewards to fund developers. Technical picture on Bitcoin looks neutral to...

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading dupwards.The price tested the level of $8.553. On May 19, a group of Bitcoin Cash (BCH) miners met after the Coingeek Conference in Hong Kong to discuss a new proposal which would fund BCH development and professional programmers who worked on the protocol. The funding would stem from a portion of the miners block reward, and attendees discussed donating between 1-5 percent of rewards to fund developers. Technical picture on Bitcoin looks neutral to bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found that the price rejected from the upper diagonal of the channel, which is a sign that buying at this stage looks risky. I also found possible bearish flag in creation, which is a sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of the bearis flag to confirm further downward price and potential re-test of $8.355 (lower diagonal).

Support/Resistance

$8.522 – Intraday resistance

$8.398– Intraday support

$8.355 – Objective target 1

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Forex analysis 21 May 2018, 06:44 UTC+00
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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for May 21, 2018
The price zone (1.1850-1.1750) once offered significant bullish rejection and a short-term bullish pullback for...
Daily OutlookThe EUR/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 1.2200 and 1.2500 until bearish breakout occured recently.Significant signs of bearish reversal were manifested around the price levels of 1.2400.This was manifested in the bearish engulfing daily candlestick of April 20.The short-term outlook turns to become bearish as long as the EUR/USD pair keeps trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range remains broken.Bearish...

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Daily Outlook

The EUR/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 1.2200 and 1.2500 until bearish breakout occured recently.

Significant signs of bearish reversal were manifested around the price levels of 1.2400.This was manifested in the bearish engulfing daily candlestick of April 20.

The short-term outlook turns to become bearish as long as the EUR/USD pair keeps trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range remains broken.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.2200 allowed further bearish decline towards the price levels of 1.1990 and 1.1880.

As mentioned, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) once offered significant bullish rejection and a short-term bullish pullback for intraday traders.

However, a recent descending high was established around the price level of 1.1990 as the EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. This enhances the bearish scenario of the market.

If bearish momentum dominates, bearish persistence below 1.1700-1.1750 (zone of previous daily lows) will be needed to enhance further bearish decline towards 1.1400 (the previously mentioned monthly key-level).

Forex analysis 21 May 2018, 09:17 UTC+00
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Trading plan for the European session on May 21 for the EUR/USD
Рассматривать покупки евро сегодня лучше всего после возврата и закрепления на уровне сопротивления 1.1742, что...
To open long positions on EURUSD it is required:To consider buying the euro today is best after the return and consolidation at 1.1742 resistance level, which will lead to an upward correction to the area 1.1786 and 1.1820, where it is recommended fixing the profit. In the case of a further decline in the euro, it is recommended to open long positions in the formation of a false breakout in the support area 1.1710 or on a rebound from 1.1683.To open short positions on EURUSD it is...

To open long positions on EURUSD it is required:

To consider buying the euro today is best after the return and consolidation at 1.1742 resistance level, which will lead to an upward correction to the area 1.1786 and 1.1820, where it is recommended fixing the profit. In the case of a further decline in the euro, it is recommended to open long positions in the formation of a false breakout in the support area 1.1710 or on a rebound from 1.1683.

To open short positions on EURUSD it is required:

While the trade is below 1.1742, the pressure on the euro will continue, and the main target of the sellers to date will be large support levels in the area of 1.1710 and 1.1683, where it is recommended fixing profits. In the event of a EUR/USD returning to 1.1742 in the morning, return to selling is best on a rebound from resistance at 1.1786.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
Forex analysis 21 May 2018, 05:39 UTC+00
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Technical analysis of Gold for May 21, 2018
Gold price is breaking down below the recent $1,285-$1,295 consolidation. Gold price could see $1,270-75, but the...
Gold price is breaking down below the recent $1,285-$1,295 consolidation. Gold price could see $1,270-75, but the bearish divergence signs continue to warn us that the next big move will be to the upside. I'm a buyer of Gold at the current or lower levels.Blue lines - bullish divergence warningGreen lines - target levelsYellow line - medium-term resistanceRed line - short-term resistanceShort-term resistance is at $1,292. I expect Gold price to soon break above it and move towards our first...

Gold price is breaking down below the recent $1,285-$1,295 consolidation. Gold price could see $1,270-75, but the bearish divergence signs continue to warn us that the next big move will be to the upside. I'm a buyer of Gold at the current or lower levels.

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Blue lines - bullish divergence warning

Green lines - target levels

Yellow line - medium-term resistance

Red line - short-term resistance

Short-term resistance is at $1,292. I expect Gold price to soon break above it and move towards our first targets of $1,302-$1,304. Next important resistance is at $1,310-13 where I can see the next big trend test. With a break above this level, the price will move towards the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A weekly close above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement will open the way for a bigger move towards $1,425. Gold is at its final stages of the move from the $1,365 level.

Forex analysis 21 May 2018, 04:34 UTC+00
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Trading plan for 21/05/2018
Bank Holiday Monday today, New Zealand data big miss
The most influential event on the balance of power on the currency market at the beginning of the week is a suspension in a trade dispute between China and the US. In the result, the global investors can observe weakening of the yen, increases in equity and futures markets on indices as well as strong increases in commodity prices, including agricultural products with soy at the forefront.This week's macro calendar does not contain many important publications, which should support the...

The most influential event on the balance of power on the currency market at the beginning of the week is a suspension in a trade dispute between China and the US. In the result, the global investors can observe weakening of the yen, increases in equity and futures markets on indices as well as strong increases in commodity prices, including agricultural products with soy at the forefront.

This week's macro calendar does not contain many important publications, which should support the maintenance of the current trends. The minutes from the FOMC meeting will confirm the bank's optimism and readiness for another interest rate increase already in June. PMIs from Euroland will be analyzed in terms of signals of a rebound in the weak first quarter. The pound may respond to inflation and retail sales data from the United Kingdom.

On Monday, May 21, the event calendar is not full of the important data releases, but overnight, the Retail Sales from New Zealand, Rightmove House Prices from the UK, and Trade Balance data from Japan were published. Later during the day, there are some speeches scheduled form the FOMC members: Raphael Bostic, Patrick Harker, and Neel Kashkari.

NZD/USD analysis for 21/05/2018:

The Retail Sales data from New Zealand was very disappointing as they were released at the level of 0.1% while the market participants expected 1.0 % after the last month's increase of 1.4%. Unfortunately, this kind of data fits with other signs that the New Zealand economy is slowing and will have a significant impact on the downside risk to the nearest gross domestic product forecast. Moreover, the global investors should expect that household spending growth will remain modest over the coming year as the housing market cools in response to the government policy changes. In this economic situation, the interest rate hike by RBNZ will be postponed again and it can make NZD weaker in the mid-term across the board.

Let's now take a look at the NZD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. NZD was pushed lower immediately on the data release and sold a little further down. The technical resistance at the level of 0.6946 still hasn't been violated and the momentum stays below its fifty level as well. The continuation of drops is very likely and the next technical support is seen at the level of 0.6815.

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Forex analysis 21 May 2018, 04:51 UTC+00
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