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1 EUR/USD Preview of the week: comments by members of the Fed and the ECB, US statistics and prospects for a trade war
Author: Irina Manzenko
The tone for trading on the EUR/USD pair for this week will be set by comments by representatives of the ECB and the...
The euro/dollar bears tested the ninth figure again on Friday, but the downward impulse died away before it started. In the last hours of the trading week, many traders took profits without risking leaving open positions for the weekend. The fundamental background for the dollar is still unreliable, and the events of the last week of September can affect the pair dramatically. Not so many important macroeconomic reports are expected this trading week. The main focus of the market will...

The euro/dollar bears tested the ninth figure again on Friday, but the downward impulse died away before it started. In the last hours of the trading week, many traders took profits without risking leaving open positions for the weekend. The fundamental background for the dollar is still unreliable, and the events of the last week of September can affect the pair dramatically.

Not so many important macroeconomic reports are expected this trading week. The main focus of the market will be on the dynamics of the development of US-Chinese trade relations and on the comments of Fed and ECB officials. Geopolitics will also play a role in determining the growth or decline of anti-risk sentiment in the foreign exchange market. First of all, we are talking about the situation in the Middle East, where a military conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran is not ruled out.

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If we talk about planned events that are important for EUR/USD traders, then here, we should highlight the speeches of "top officials" of the Central Banks. For example, the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, will speak in Brussels today at 15:00 UTC. He will voice the report to the members of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament. Since the topic of the report is directly related to monetary policy, the market will show particular interest in it. Let me remind you that according to the results of the last meeting of the European regulator, the EUR/USD pair actually received support despite the easing of the monetary policy parameters. The euro was supported by two facts: first, the regulator did not meet investors' expectations. According to general forecasts, the Central Bank should have resorted to larger-scale actions (lowering the rate to -0.6% and QE in the amount of 40-50 billion); Second, traders drew attention to the split that occurred in the camp of the ECB as some members of the regulator opposed the resumption of the incentive program.

In this context, what's more interesting is not Mario Draghi's personal position on these circumstances (in the light of his resignation in late October), but his comments on the sentiments that are found among the members of the European Central Bank. If the essence of his rhetoric is reduced to a wait-and-see attitude, the euro will receive some support.

On Thursday, September 26, will be a rather informative day this week. Six members of the Fed will speak at once during the American session: Robert Kaplan, James Bullard, Richard Clarida, Mary Daley, Neil Kashkari, and Thomas Barkin. It is worth noting that the Federal Reserve also did not demonstrate a monolithic position regarding the September rate cut and further prospects of monetary policy; for example, such members of the Federal Reserve as the head of the Kansas Federal Reserve Bank Esther George and the head of the Boston Federal Reserve Eric Rosengrenopposed the interest rate cut again. In addition, ten members of the regulator said they did not see any reason for easing monetary policy by the end of this year, while seven of their colleagues still allowed this option. As for the prospects for 2020, eight members of the Committee stated the need to maintain a wait-and-see attitude, while the rest of the top Fed officials said that the regulator should back raise the rate by at least 25 points. Given such a divergence of opinions, each comment by the Fed representative (especially those with voting rights) is of interest.

If we talk about macroeconomic statistics, the most important releases for the pair will come from the United States. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index will be published tomorrow, Tuesday. In July and August, it came out at fairly high values at 135.8 and 135.1, respectively, supporting the US currency. According to experts' general forecasts, the September index will reach 134.1 points. This is a good result but still worse than summer performance. The dollar will react to this release only if it comes out much worse than the forecast values, reflecting the uncertainty of American consumers.

On Wednesday, attention should be focused on the volume of home sales in the primary US market. After a significant decline, positive dynamics are expected. But on Thursday, it will shift to the final assessment of US GDP growth for the 2nd quarter. According to forecasts, this indicator will not be revised. Otherwise, this release may cause increased volatility for the pair.

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On Friday, EUR/USD traders will be interested in the main index of personal consumption spending, which measures the core level of spending and indirectly affects the dynamics of inflation in the United States. It is believed that this indicator is monitored carefully by regulator members. According to forecasts, the index will show contradictory dynamics. In monthly terms, it will decrease to 0.1% but it will rise to 1.8% in annual terms. This release may have an impact on the dynamics of the pair only with strong fluctuations when the real numbers differ significantly from the forecast values.

The European currency will respond to the reports of PMI (today) and IFO (on Tuesday), but their impact on the pair is usually short-term.

In general, the tone of the bidding will be set by the comments of representatives of the ECB and the Fed and macroeconomic reports. The dynamics of the development of the trade war will serve as a backdrop to the above fundamental factors. Particularly on Friday, it became known that the US authorities introduced a temporary exemption from duties for more than 400 goods that are imported from China. This is another sign of a de-escalation of the trade conflict. If this week the parties take the next steps in this direction, the dollar will receive significant support. Indeed, in this case, the probability of a further reduction in the Fed interest rate will significantly decrease.

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair needs to leave the range of 1.0950 - 1.1100, which are the lower and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator, respectively. Only in this case will it be possible to talk either about the continuation of the downward trend or about the signs of its fracture. In fact, the pair has been trading in the indicated price range as part of a wide-range flat since the beginning of September.

Forex analysis 23 Sep 2019, 06:10 UTC+00
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2 Trading recommendations for the GBP/USD currency pair on September 23: placement of trade orders
Author: Gven Podolsky
The Pound/Dollar currency pair showed high volatility of 121 points by the end of the last trading week. As a result,...
The Pound/Dollar currency pair showed high volatility of 121 points by the end of the last trading week. As a result, the quote returned to the limits of the previously formed accumulation. From a technical point of view, we can see that a recent surge has led the quotation to around 1.2580, which reflects the local peak of the correctional course on July 12th. Hence, the pound inflated on nothing and began to lose its position. In fact, it returned to the quotation of the framework in...

The Pound/Dollar currency pair showed high volatility of 121 points by the end of the last trading week. As a result, the quote returned to the limits of the previously formed accumulation.

From a technical point of view, we can see that a recent surge has led the quotation to around 1.2580, which reflects the local peak of the correctional course on July 12th. Hence, the pound inflated on nothing and began to lose its position. In fact, it returned to the quotation of the framework in the recent accumulation at 1.2430/1.2500.

As discussed in the previous review, traders have already managed to earn on the initial price spike in the period of September 19-20, where partial and full fixation of transactions was made in the area of 1.2550-2580 with the stop-loss moving to breakeven. it was possible to go into profit even taking into account the fact that the quote eventually returned back.

Considering the trading chart in general terms (the daily period), we see that the oblong correction is steadily maintained in the market. Relatively speaking, the range of 1.2500 (1.2500/1.2550) plays a variable resistance, restraining the unjustified inflation of the pound.

Last Friday's news background did not have any intact statistics for Britain and the United States. Thereby, all the interaction of the quote went through the information background along with the emotional component of the market. So what was in the margins of the information flow? A meeting between the two chief negotiators of Brexit, represented by British Minister Stephen Barclay and the EU representative Michel Barnier. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss a document previously submitted by the British authorities concerning the terms of the exit, but as we can see from the results, the talks were fruitless. The two sides agreed to continue the talks, according to the statement of the European Commission. In principle, we already expected this outcome when we heard the news that London had provided Brussels with unofficial documents with ideas on Brexit as if they were behind. European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker, for his part, said on Sunday (September 22) that Britain's tough exit from the EU would create a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland.

As we can see, the play on the words of the representatives of the European Union leads to the spontaneous growth of the British currency, while at the same time the pound returns to its starting points while touching the real problems of Britain. At the same time, while touching the real problems Britain pound, the pound returns to its starting points. Statements of the EU about readiness to consider any proposals for "backstop" ending on the word "consider", and it is unlikely to go further.

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Today, in terms of the economic calendar, preliminary data for the United States, particularly the index of business activity in the service sector, grew from 50.7 to 51.5, whereas the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector should remain unchanged. Actual statistics may support the US currency.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quote is trying to storm the lower border of savings of 1.2430/1.2500 that is already trying to break it. There are assumptions that reflect the EURUSD currency pair in this situation, where at the current moment there was a sharp drain of the euro against the background of bad PMI data in Europe. In turn, speculators monitor the behavior of quotes relative to the lower border of 1.2430 since there are prerequisites for the emergence of short positions.

It is likely that there are prerequisites for the descent to 1.2400-1.2350 amid recovery and clear price fixation lower than 1.2430. A counter judgment reflects the opposite picture, where the bearish interest is waning and the quotation continues to chatter again within 1.2430/1.2500.

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Based on the above information, we derive trading recommendations:

-If the price fixes higher than 1.2500, buy positions are considered with the prospect of a move to 1.2575. In the case of descent, we are looking for points of support, possibly around 1.2350.

- Sell positions should be analyzed with respect to current points and quotation behavior. It is possible to enter the incomplete trading volume, subsequently topped up. Do not forget about the restrictive stop loss.

- Sell positions should be analyzed with respect to current points and quotation behavior. It is possible to enter the incomplete trading volume, subsequently top-up. Do not forget about the restrictive stop-loss.

Indicator analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators' indicators in the short-term and intraday periods signal a downward interest due to the current recovery. The medium-term outlook holds upward interest due to an oblong correction.

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Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(September 23 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article)

The volatility of the current time is 68 points, which is already a lot for this time section. If the accumulation nevertheless falls and the quotation manages to go into the recovery phase, then the volatility can significantly increase, exceeding the average daily indicator.

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Key levels

Resistance zones: 1.2500 **; 1.2620; 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) **.

Support areas: 1.2350 **; 1.2150 **; 1,2000 ***; 1.1700; 1.1475 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

*** The article is built on the principle of conducting a transaction with daily adjustment

Forex analysis 23 Sep 2019, 13:45 UTC+00
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3 Euro and pound prepare for strong movements
Author: Kuvat Raharjo
On Monday morning, the markets show mixed movements. There is no uniform dynamics and the uncertainty factor is...
On Monday morning, the markets show mixed movements. There is no uniform dynamics and the uncertainty factor is growing again. The level of geopolitical risks has grown as the United States has announced new sanctions against Iran, which for some reason are associated with the recent re-enactment of the attack on Saudi Arabia. Consequently, oil and gold are growing. Oil growth is beneficial to the US oil shale industry; without this growth, the industry confidently rolled into...

On Monday morning, the markets show mixed movements. There is no uniform dynamics and the uncertainty factor is growing again.

The level of geopolitical risks has grown as the United States has announced new sanctions against Iran, which for some reason are associated with the recent re-enactment of the attack on Saudi Arabia. Consequently, oil and gold are growing. Oil growth is beneficial to the US oil shale industry; without this growth, the industry confidently rolled into bankruptcy.

Stock indices do not have single dynamics. The Indian Nifty50 is gaining more than 3%, while Shanghai is losing more than a percent amid another wave of rising trade concerns. If the negotiations that were initially held on September 19-20 were regarded as constructive, then by Friday evening, it became clear that the Chinese delegation had completed the visit ahead of schedule and refused to visit farms in the states of Nebraska and Montana, which the markets regarded as a likely failure in the negotiations.

The Fed is preparing to take some decisions to provide markets with liquidity since the recent deficit has caused a strong increase in repo rates. Also, a drop in GDP growth is expected.

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The dollar looks weak in the current conditions. Most leading banks are reviewing their long-term models and expect the Fed to prepare to announce a new expansion of the balance sheet under one pretext or another.

EUR / USD pair

Today, PMI data will be published in Germany and in the eurozone as a whole. Forecasts are weak and no growth is expected for any indicator. As long as the service sectors look more or less confident, there is no recession. However, if a negative trend emerges, the market's response may be strong toward a euro decline.

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair has no direction. The euro continues to trade range-bound but the likelihood of a break down has increased.

GBP / USD pair

The main thing that was understood from the results of the meeting of the Bank of England was the confirmation that the uncertainty with Brexit could reduce demand and inflation, which would ultimately lead to lower rates. Until the Brexit situation is resolved, the Bank of England remains locked in a narrow range of possibilities. All that remains is to maintain a cheerful tone and wait for clarity to come.

Meanwhile, there is a simple indicator that shows what the Bank of England is doing in the face of a slowing economy. As soon as the PMI starts to go down, the BoE loosens the policy as it was anyway before. Moreover, if there were uncertainty with Brexit, then the Bank of England would have already reduced the rate; perhaps more than once.

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Currently, the GDP forecasts for the third quarter, suggest an increase of 0.2%. This is slightly, but still above zero. That is, the recession is still somewhere on the horizon. The forced recognition that uncertainty increases the likelihood of a decrease in demand, especially in the context of a global slowdown, has offset recent data on average wage growth rates of 4%. This was the highest growth rate in 11 years. The reason for this skepticism is that the Bank of England expects a slowdown in the labor market, and there are reports from some leading indicators that indicate this.

In case the Brexit situation does not get permission, the forecast of BoE said that"... the exchange rate will fall, CPI inflation will increase, and GDP will slow ..." Accordingly, the extension of the period of uncertainty until the end of January means a downward reversal for the pound. While the GBPUSD is trying to hold on to the upward momentum, it seems that Johnson is still losing and all hope is now for the goodwill of the EU negotiators. In the meantime, we need to proceed from the fact that the pound will go down if the EU does not take steps towards it.

The key support for the short-term is 1.2435 and its fall will increase the chances of a downward correction. Technically, the pound still maintains an upward trend. Therefore, growth attempts due to rumors of a softening EU position will continue to push the pound up to a recent high of 1.2582. This is currently the only factor holding the pound up the channel.

Forex analysis 23 Sep 2019, 08:03 UTC+00
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4 Review of EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs on 09/23/2019: Confused who has a recession
Author: Mark Bom
In the absence of macroeconomic statistics, geopolitical factors made the single European currency pretty nervous,...
When the macroeconomic calendar is empty, politicians resort to help traders. This is exactly what happened on Friday. Instead of boring statistics, investors were invited to contemplate the next adventures of Saudi Arabia and the United States in search of evidence of Iran's guilt in attacking the Sheikhs oil fields. And although they have not yet achieved success in this extremely difficult and dangerous event, they have already threatened the Islamic Republic with new heavenly...

When the macroeconomic calendar is empty, politicians resort to help traders. This is exactly what happened on Friday. Instead of boring statistics, investors were invited to contemplate the next adventures of Saudi Arabia and the United States in search of evidence of Iran's guilt in attacking the Sheikhs oil fields. And although they have not yet achieved success in this extremely difficult and dangerous event, they have already threatened the Islamic Republic with new heavenly punishments. Apparently, the fact is that they can't find any evidence of the involvement of the Persians in such a daring attack. It got to the point that the Pentagon outlined several targets for targeted attacks on Iran from resentment. Although few doubted that things will not go beyond words and threats, it is obvious that the result of all these movements will be the tightening of sanctions against the Islamic Republic. Well, this will inevitably lead to financial losses of European oil companies that are actively working in Iran. Moreover, the case may even turn into a local shortage of black gold in the Old World. Hence, it is not surprising that the single European currency was a little feverish and was thrown from side to side after the next statements by representatives of the United States.

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Today, geopolitics and the appointment of the guilty have already faded into the background since preliminary data on business activity indexes in Europe have been published, from which the hairs on my head stand on end. Hence, the index of business activity in the service sector collapsed to 52.0, instead of declining from 53.5 to 53.3 as expected. But things are even worse with the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, which fell from 47.0 to 45.6, although it was supposed to grow to 47.3. Looking at it, one gets the feeling that everyone who is screaming about the recession in the United States does not trite know where the Old World is on the globe since the economic downturn threatens Europe. A decrease in both business activity indices led to a reduction in the composite index from 51.9 to 50.4.

Composite business activity index in Europe:

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But this is not the end of today's adventures, all the fun is just beginning. The fact is that preliminary data on business activity indices are published in the United States, and forecasts for them are much better than in Europe. Hence, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector should remain unchanged at around 50.3 points. This seriously casts doubt on the cries of the inevitable recession in the United States. Rather, it will begin in Europe and alarmists just heard the word recession from someone but did not listen to where exactly. In addition, the index of business activity in the services sector may increase from 50.7 to 51.5, which ultimately will give an increase in the composite index of business activity from 50.7 to 51.2.

Composite business activity index in the United States:

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It turns out that not only European statistics but also American ones will put pressure on the single European currency. Therefore, there is a high probability of its decline as much as 1.0925.

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The pound is pressed not only by weak data on business activity indexes in Europe but also by expectations on similar data in the United States. The situation is exacerbated by the bankruptcy of one of the largest British travel companies and the need to urgently take out thousands of subjects Her Majesty from various resorts, which will cost not a small amount of money. So, the pound may well finish the day at 1.2350.

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Forex analysis 23 Sep 2019, 11:02 UTC+00
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5 Analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for September 23. Eurocurrency hopes linked to weak economic reports from America
Author: Chin Zhao
The news background continues to support the dollar. Only pound sterling is on the wave of optimism for Brexit holds...
EUR / USD Friday, September 20, ended for the EUR / USD pair in a decline of 20 basis points. The instrument fell to the level of 23.6% Fibonacci and made an unsuccessful attempt to break through. Thus, since the previous minimum was not broken, good chances remain for constructing the alleged wave 3 or C and the composition of the upward trend section, originating on September 12. There is still the possibility that this section will transform into wave 4 with the subsequent...

EUR / USD

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Friday, September 20, ended for the EUR / USD pair in a decline of 20 basis points. The instrument fell to the level of 23.6% Fibonacci and made an unsuccessful attempt to break through. Thus, since the previous minimum was not broken, good chances remain for constructing the alleged wave 3 or C and the composition of the upward trend section, originating on September 12. There is still the possibility that this section will transform into wave 4 with the subsequent continuation of the construction of the downward trend section within wave 5. On the other hand, the news background for the euro-dollar pair was neutral on Friday. However, the markets found reasons to sell the pair.

Fundamental component:

Monday should be a more interesting day for the foreign exchange market compared to Friday. Today, the news background will be strong enough. First, there will be indicators of business activity in the services and production of Germany.

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German business activity indicators have been catastrophically low for a long time, and there is no hope that the situation will change in the coming months. A value of 43.5 and a forecast of 44.0 confirms this.

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In the services sector, the situation is much better. Indicators confidently hold above 50 and it is precisely due to them that the composite index of business activity is also kept above this level.

A little later, the index of business activity in the European Union is released.

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Business activity in the manufacturing sector is also bad. The previous value is 47.0, while the forecast is 47.3.

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In the service sector in Germany, everything is better. Fears that indicators will fall below 50 are now groundless.

In the afternoon, we have the same index of business activity in America.

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In industry, business activity risks falling below 50 is already this month or next.

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In the service sector, the situation is the same. In September or October, indicators may begin to indicate recessions in both areas.

I draw the attention of traders that these figures for September are not final, however, it will already be possible to judge by them what to expect from business activity by the end of the month. The euro-dollar pair still needs weak news from America to build a three-wave upward structure.

Purchase goals:

1.1128 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1.1175 - 76.4% Fibonacci

Sales goals:

1.0927 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The euro-dollar pair allegedly completed the construction of a bearish wave 3 or C, as well as wave 2 or b as part of a new trend section, which originates on September 12. If this is true, then the pair is still expected to increase quotes. I recommend buying a pair with targets near the calculated levels of 1.1128 and 1.1175, calculated on the construction of wave 3 or C, not forgetting protective orders below the minimum of wave 2 or b.

GBP / USD

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On September 20, the pair GBP / USD lost 50 basis points, but remains within the framework of the construction of the alleged wave c. There was no news background on Friday, however, the "Briton" still has an "eternal" news background in the form of Brexit. By the way, there is no new data on this topic. The Supreme Court of Great Britain continues to consider the case of illegal suspension of parliament by Boris Johnson. Thus, everyone is waiting for a court decision, which can be issued today or tomorrow. Will the deputies returned to their work earlier, before October 14? It will depend on this decision. If so, then we have the right to expect new parliamentary battles against Boris Johnson and his desire to withdraw the country from the European Union by October 31 at any cost.

Fundamental component:

On Monday, September 23, the UK news calendar is empty. Thus, we are hoping to receive news from the Supreme Court of Great Britain or from the government of Boris Johnson. One of the latest messages on the subject of Brexit was a speech by Jean-Claude Juncker, in which he stated that even in the case of a hard Brexit, the border between Northern Ireland, which leaves the EU along with Britain, and Ireland, which also remains part of the European Union, will appear. Accordingly, one of the main desires of the British government to prevent the appearance of a border between these countries will not be realized anyway, which nullifies the whole meaning of hard Brexit. Now, it is the turn for comments on this issue from the Prime Minister of Great Britain.

Sales goals:

1.2016 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.2602 - 76.4% Fibonacci

1.2784 - 100.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The upward trend section continues its construction. Thus, quotes are now expected to increase with targets located near the calculated levels of 1.2602 and 1.2784, which corresponds to 76.4% and 100.0% Fibonacci. Wave c can still complete its construction in the near future, however, a successful attempt to break through the 61.8% Fibonacci level indicates that the market is ready for a new increase in the instrument.

Forex analysis 23 Sep 2019, 08:15 UTC+00
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6 Trading strategy for GBP/USD on September 23rd. Britain is increasingly overwhelmed by the political crisis
Author: Samir Klishi
There is a split in the Labor camp. The party is in crisis as well as the Conservative party, which still holds the...
GBP/USD – 4H. The British pound performed consolidation above the correction level of 38.2% (1.2501), but as it turned out later, the breakdown was false, and traders could not hold the British pound above this level on Friday, September 20. The pound/dollar pair closed at the Fibo level of 38.2% and reversed in favor of the US currency. An upward channel is also formed, which shows the trend of the last days. Already today, the pound can leave this channel through its lower line,...

GBP/USD – 4H.

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The British pound performed consolidation above the correction level of 38.2% (1.2501), but as it turned out later, the breakdown was false, and traders could not hold the British pound above this level on Friday, September 20. The pound/dollar pair closed at the Fibo level of 38.2% and reversed in favor of the US currency. An upward channel is also formed, which shows the trend of the last days. Already today, the pound can leave this channel through its lower line, which will mean the desire of traders to move to sales.

The crisis of a political nature is increasingly engulfing the UK. This is the conclusion that can be drawn from recent events. A week ago, the leader of the Labor Party and the opposition of Boris Johnson, Jeremy Corbyn, looked like a man capable of stopping Brexit "No Deal" and enjoying the support of most parliamentarians. Boris Johnson did not enjoy 100% support even within his party. But as it turned out, everything was not as smooth as it should be in the Labor camp. We can say with confidence that Brexit introduced a split not only in the political sphere of the United Kingdom but also in each party. Andrew Fisher, the closest adviser to Jeremy Corbyn, resigned on Saturday, September 21. This is due to the position of Corbyn on Brexit, or rather the lack thereof. Fisher accused Corbyn of "lack of competence, professionalism, and human decency." These are beautiful words that do not clarify the essence of Fisher's displeasure with the leader of the Labor Party. More precisely: Jeremy Corbyn, who has led the party since before Brexit, does not have a clear position on this issue. That is, Corbyn has repeatedly stated that the situation requires a second referendum. However, as it turned out, a certain part of the party does not like this formulation. Deputies want to clearly understand and realize in what direction their party is moving, what Brexit they want to achieve. Corbyn does not give such a position, believing that it is the people who must once again decide the fate of the state.

Thus, the fact is obvious: in both main parties of the country, there is a split. Many conservatives do not support the position of their leader Johnson, and 20 members of the party had to leave its ranks. The Labor Party is displeased with the absence of Corbyn's position. This is another bad news for the UK. In the period when the deputies must unite to finally decide how to implement Brexit, in practice, it turns out that more parties and individual deputies profess different political views, and the majority opinion does not need the same opinion. It turns out that the parliament unanimously blocks the deal by Teresa May, Johnson's Brexit "No Deal", but cannot propose an alternative (by majority vote). Brexit runs the risk of drag on for years to come.

What to expect from the pound/dollar currency pair today?

The pound/dollar currency pair has completed the closing under the level of 38.2% (1.2501). Thus, today I expect a close under the upward channel and a further fall in the direction of the correction level of 23.6% (1.2293). The pound is at risk of falling back although deputies managed to push the Brexit "No Deal" a bit.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of March 13, 2019, and September 3, 2019.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:

I recommend buying the pair with the target of 1.2668 and a stop-loss under the level of 1.2501 if a new close is performed above the Fibo level of 38.2%.

I recommend selling the pair with a target of 1.2308 after closing after the upward channel, with the stop-loss order above the Fibo level of 38.2%.

Forex analysis 23 Sep 2019, 08:44 UTC+00
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7 Forecast for EUR/USD on September 23, 2019
Author: Laurie Bailey
The euro is expected to further decline on September
EUR/USD On Friday, the euro closed the day with a decline of 24 points, overcoming a number of technical support, which strengthened the bearish sentiment of the market. On the daily chart, the price at the top of the Friday candlestick reversed from the balance indicator line (red), at the bottom it did not reach the target Fibonacci level of 138.2% (1.0987). The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is balancing on the border with the territory of the "bears". On the...

EUR/USD

On Friday, the euro closed the day with a decline of 24 points, overcoming a number of technical support, which strengthened the bearish sentiment of the market. On the daily chart, the price at the top of the Friday candlestick reversed from the balance indicator line (red), at the bottom it did not reach the target Fibonacci level of 138.2% (1.0987). The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is balancing on the border with the territory of the "bears".

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On the four-hour chart, the price was consolidated with the indicator lines of the balance and MACD, Marlin in the declining trend zone. Now we expect the euro to consolidate below the target level of 1.0987 and further decline to the support level of 1.0926 on September 3 and 12.

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The upper target of 1.1115 - the resistance of the MACD line on the daily scale chart can be reached after a preliminary price exit above the Fibonacci level of 123.6% (1.1072).

Forex analysis 23 Sep 2019, 03:39 UTC+00
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8 Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for September 23
Author: Daichi Takahashi
Dear colleagues. For the pair euro / dollar, the price is close to the cancellation of the ascending structure of...
Forecast for September 23: Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1: For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1227, 1.1188, 1.1135, 1.1114, 1.1079, 1.1019, 1.0987 and 1.0932. Here, the price is close to the cancellation of the ascending structure of September 12, which requires a breakdown of the level of 1.0987. In this case, the first potential target is 1.0932. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown...

Forecast for September 23:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

analytics5d8809d4de654.png

For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1227, 1.1188, 1.1135, 1.1114, 1.1079, 1.1019, 1.0987 and 1.0932. Here, the price is close to the cancellation of the ascending structure of September 12, which requires a breakdown of the level of 1.0987. In this case, the first potential target is 1.0932. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1080. In this case, the first goal is 1.1114. The passage at the price of the noise range 1.1114 - 1.1135 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 1.1188. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1227. Upon reaching this value, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of September 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1080 Take profit: 1.1114

Buy 1.1135 Take profit: 1.1188

Sell: 1.1019 Take profit: 1.0990

Sell: 1.0985 Take profit: 1.0935

analytics5d8809f22a79f.png

For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2738, 1.2673, 1.2622, 1.2549, 1.2460, 1.2403, 1.2338 and 1.2281. Here, we continue to monitor the local ascendant structure from September 12. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2549. In this case, the target is 1.2622. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.2622 - 1.2673. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2738. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

We expect consolidated movement in the range of 1.2460 - 1.2403. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2338. This level is a key support for the top. Its passage at the price will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the first goal is 1.2281.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of September 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2550 Take profit: 1.2620

Buy: 1.2674 Take profit: 1.2736

Sell: 1.2401 Take profit: 1.2340

Sell: 1.2336 Take profit: 1.2282

analytics5d880a0be3877.png

For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9983, 0.9962, 0.9941, 0.9927, 0.9893, 0.9868, 0.9835, 0.9813 and 0.9783. Here, we expect the development of the downward structure of September 19. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9893. In this case, the target is 0.9868. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.9868 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 0.9835, Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.9835 - 0.9813. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9783. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback in correction.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9927 - 0.9941. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 0.9962. This level is a key support for the descending structure of September 19.

The main trend is the formation of the downward potential of September 19.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9927 Take profit: 0.9940

Buy : 0.9942 Take profit: 0.9960

Sell: 0.9893 Take profit: 0.9870

Sell: 0.9866 Take profit: 0.9835

analytics5d880a25379e9.png

For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.21, 107.95, 107.77, 107.50, 107.25, 107.06 and 106.82. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of September 19. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 107.50. In this case, the target is 107.25. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 107.25 - 107.06. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 106.82. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range 107.77 - 107.95. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 108.21. This level is the key support for the downward structure from September 19.

Main trend: descending structure of September 19.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.77 Take profit: 107.93

Buy : 107.97 Take profit: 108.20

Sell: 107.50 Take profit: 107.27

Sell: 107.23 Take profit: 107.08

analytics5d880a41a32ae.png

For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3379, 1.3343, 1.3326, 1.3297, 1.3260, 1.3235, 1.3198 and 1.3172. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the ascending structure of September 10. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3297. Here, the target is 1.3326. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3326 - 1.3343. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3379. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement and consolidation are possible in the range of 1.3260 - 1.3235. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3198. This level is a key support for the top. Its breakdown will have the downward structure. In this case, the potential goal is 1.3172.

The main trend is the rising structure of September 10, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3299 Take profit: 1.3226

Buy : 1.3344 Take profit: 1.3378

Sell: 1.3260 Take profit: 1.3237

Sell: 1.3233 Take profit: 1.3200

analytics5d880a5d1bb74.png

For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6822, 0.6797, 0.6782, 0.6745, 0.6732, 0.6705 and 0.6683. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of September 13. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 0.6745 - 0.6732. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 0.6705. Price consolidation is near this value. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6683. Upon reaching which, we expect a departure in the correction.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6782 - 0.6797. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the potential target is 0.6822. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of September 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6782 Take profit: 0.6795

Buy: 0.6800 Take profit: 0.6822

Sell : 0.6745 Take profit : 0.6734

Sell: 0.6730 Take profit: 0.6707

analytics5d880a80a9bd8.png

For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 119.41, 119.02, 118.74, 118.28, 118.01, 117.73, 117.51 and 117.10. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of September 18. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 118.28 - 118.01. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the level of 117.73. Price consolidation is in the range of 117.73 - 117.51 . For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 117.10. From this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range 118.74 - 119.02. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth movement. Here, the goal is 119.41. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure of September 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 118.75 Take profit: 119.00

Buy: 119.04 Take profit: 119.40

Sell: 118.28 Take profit: 118.03

Sell: 118.00 Take profit: 117.74

analytics5d880aa4466e6.png

For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 137.21, 136.13, 135.37, 134.10, 133.39 and 132.23. Here, we are following the local ascendant structure of September 12. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 135.37 - 136.13. The breakdown of the last value will lead to movement to a potential target - 137.21, when this level is reached, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range 134.10 - 133.39. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 132.23. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of September 3, the local ascending structure of September 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 135.38 Take profit: 136.10

Buy: 136.15 Take profit: 137.20

Sell: 134.10 Take profit: 133.42

Sell: 133.35 Take profit: 132.30

Forex analysis 23 Sep 2019, 00:01 UTC+00
Relevance Relevance: up to 24.09.19 - 00:00 UTC+00
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9 Forecast for GBP/USD on September 23, 2019
Author: Laurie Bailey
The pound is gaining strength before it further declines on September
GBP/USD On Friday, the pound made a second attempt to go above the resistance at the Fibonacci level of 161.8% (1.2544, the first attempt was on Thursday), but pulled back and it closed the day with a black candle at 44 points. A divergence has formed on the Marlin oscillator. After receiving a signal from smaller TFs, a further decrease in the price is likely below the signal level of 1.2381 and a decrease to the Fibonacci level of 223.6% at the price of 1.2228. On a smaller...

GBP/USD

On Friday, the pound made a second attempt to go above the resistance at the Fibonacci level of 161.8% (1.2544, the first attempt was on Thursday), but pulled back and it closed the day with a black candle at 44 points. A divergence has formed on the Marlin oscillator. After receiving a signal from smaller TFs, a further decrease in the price is likely below the signal level of 1.2381 and a decrease to the Fibonacci level of 223.6% at the price of 1.2228.

analytics5d884065a5168.png

On a smaller four-hour chart, the price is held by the red balance indicator line. Departure of the price under the MACD line (1.2442) will create a reserve for an attack on 1.2381, after which we wait for the development of events according to a declining scenario. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator moved into the zone of negative values.

analytics5d88407aa4a2b.png

Forex analysis 23 Sep 2019, 03:39 UTC+00
Relevance Relevance: up to 25.09.19 - 03:00 UTC+00
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10 Technical analysis for the GBP/USD currency pair for the week from September 23 to 28, 2019
Author: Stefan Doll
Last week, the pair failed to overcome the level 21 of the average EMA – 1.2493 (black thin line). Most likely, an...
Trend analysis. This week, the price will move up with the first target of 1.2668 – resistance line (blue bold line). In the case of achievement – rolling work down. Fig. 1 (weekly chart). Complex analysis: - Indicator analysis – up; - Fibonacci levels – up; - Volumes – up; - Candle analysis – up; - Trend analysis – up; - Bollinger bands – up; - Monthly chart – up. The conclusion of the complex analysis is an upward movement. The overall result of calculating the...

Trend analysis.

This week, the price will move up with the first target of 1.2668 – resistance line (blue bold line). In the case of achievement – rolling work down.

analytics5d886af98ceeb.png

Fig. 1 (weekly chart).

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis – up;

- Fibonacci levels – up;

- Volumes – up;

- Candle analysis – up;

- Trend analysis – up;

- Bollinger bands – up;

- Monthly chart – up.

The conclusion of the complex analysis is an upward movement.

The overall result of calculating the candle of the GBP/USD currency pair according to the weekly chart: the price of the week is likely to have an upward trend with the presence of the first lower shadow of the weekly white candlestick (Monday – down) and the absence of the second upper shadow (Friday – up).

Forex analysis 23 Sep 2019, 07:10 UTC+00
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