The headline inflation gauge for Australia. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Aussie Dollar, where each Dollar buys fewer goods and services. In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that is typically bought by a metropolitan Australian households. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Australian Dollars to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.
Unlike most other countries, Australia publishes CPI quarterly instead of monthly, increasing the market impact of the report upon release. The headline number is released as the percentage change from the previous quarter or year.
Event: RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Period: 1 quarter Previous Reading: 0.5% q/q; 1.6% y/y Forecast: 0.5% q/q; 1.8% y/y Actual Reading: 0.5% q/q; 1.9% y/y
Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the most volatile 30% of items. hide
Event: RBA Weighted Median Period: 1 quarter Previous Reading: 0.4% q/q; 1.4% y/y Forecast: 0.5% q/q; 1.8% y/y Actual Reading: 0.4% q/q; 1.7% y/y
It helps expose the underlying inflation trend through component weighting and anomaly exclusion. The indicator compares the prices growth to the same quarter a yer ago. hide
Event: All Industries Activity Period: Feb Previous Reading: -0.4% m/m Forecast: 0.8% m/m Actual Reading: 0.7% m/m
Evaluates the monthly change in overall production by all sectors of the Japanese economy. The index comprises a variety of industries: service, manufacturing, construction and public sectors are included. The index closely follows Japanese GDP and overall growth figures, providing insight into current levels of Japanese economic expansion. The All Industry Activity Index is posted monthly as a percentage change from the previous month's figure.
Event: UBS Consumption Indicator Period: Mar Previous Reading: 1.45 Forecast: Actual Reading: 1.50
Index for consumer spending in Switzerland. The Consumption Indicator moves with changes in real consumer spending and can be used as a gauge of the strength of domestic demand. A rising indicator value reflects rising consumer spending, which generally leads to economic growth and potentially augur inflationary pressures to come.
The UBS Consumption Indicator is calculated using five specific indicators of spending and expressed in the form of an index. These indicators are: new car sales, business trends in retail, overnight hotel stays by Swiss nationals in Switzerland, the consumer sentiment index and credit card transactions.
The headline is the index value for the month. Because the index value is always positive, markets compare the current index value to the short and long-term average values in order to gauge Switzerland 's economic health. In the long term the average has been approximately 1.5, but may change with time.
Event: Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) Period: Apr Previous Reading: 29.6 Forecast: Actual Reading: 22.2
A leading indicator of economic health, based on expectations of institutional investors and analysts. Level above zero reflects the prevalence of optimism, below - pessimism. Exceeding the previous level or the prognosis is favorable for the currency converter. hide
Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Retail Sales is a leading indicator for the economy. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures.
The headline figure is expressed as the percentage change from the same month last year.
The actual inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and distillate, such as jet fuel, as reported on a weekly basis. The numbers are watched closely by the energy markets, and if the results differ greatly from the expected inventory levels, the market can react strongly. The inventory data can be skewed by holidays and seasonal factors. Weekly data can be unreliable and should be viewed as a part of longer-term trends, so a four-week moving average may be more useful.
Event: GfK Consumer Climate Period: May Previous Reading: 9.8 Forecast: 9.9 Actual Reading:
The German group GfK uses this report to show the results of their survey on business consumer confidence in order to gauge the health of the German economy. It is a leading indicator of economic strength.
Event: Trade Balance Period: Mar Previous Reading: 3.11bln Forecast: 3.01bln Actual Reading:
A country's trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payment, giving valuable insight into pressures on country's currency.
Surpluses and Deficits
A positive Trade Balance (surplus) indicates that exports are greater than imports. When imports exceed exports, the country experiences a trade deficit. Because foreign goods are usually purchased using foreign currency, trade deficits usually reflect currency leaking out of the country. Such currency outflows may lead to a natural depreciation unless countered by comparable capital inflows (inflows in the form of investments, FDI - where foreigners investing in local equity, bond or real estates markets). At a bare minimum, deficits fundamentally weigh down the value of the currency.
Ramifications of Trade Balance on Markets
There are a number of factors that work to diminish the market impact of Trade Balance upon immediate release. The report is not very timely, coming some time after the reporting period. Developments in many of the figure's components are also typically anticipated well beforehand. Lastly, since the report reflects data for a specific reporting month or quarter, any significant changes in the Trade Balance should plausibly have already been felt during that period - and not during the release of data.
However, because of the overall significance of Trade Balance data in forecasting trends in the Forex Market, the release has historically been one of the most important reports out of the any country.
Event: BOJ Press Conference Period: Apr Previous Reading: Forecast: Actual Reading:
It's among the primary methods the BOJ uses to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. It covers the factors that affected the most recent interest rate decision, the overall economic outlook, inflation, and clues regarding future monetary policy. hide
Event: Consumer Price Index Flash Period: Apr Previous Reading: 2.3% y/y Forecast: 2.5% y/y Actual Reading:
The Consumer Price Index's (CPI) Flash Estimate measures the inflation rate incurred by consumers when purchasing goods and services. It typically carries a significant impact as traders depend on this information for a glimpse into inflationary pressures and its impact on the nation's currency.
The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.
Note: The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems.
An accurate early indicator of monthly retail sales in the U.K. CBI realized sales was first introduced in 1983 by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) and is based on the CBI's Distributive Trades Survey (DTS), which covers 20,000 outlets of firms responsible for a large component of the of retail sector.
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