Event: BOJ Outlook Report Period: Apr Previous Reading: Forecast: Actual Reading:
It provides valuable insight into the bank's view of economic conditions and inflation - the key factors that will shape the future of monetary policy. hide
Event: Annual Rise in Monetary Base Period: Apr Previous Reading: JPY80T Forecast: JPY80T Actual Reading: JPY80T
To achieve its 2% inflation target, the Bank of Japan purchases different securities activey. The aim is to expand the monetary base by 80 trillion yen a year. This figure may be adjusted during the BoJ meeting. Increase in this indicator reflects a more agrresive base expansion and may weigh on the yen. hide
Event: GfK Consumer Climate Period: May Previous Reading: 9.8 Forecast: 9.9 Actual Reading: 10.2
The German group GfK uses this report to show the results of their survey on business consumer confidence in order to gauge the health of the German economy. It is a leading indicator of economic strength.
Event: Trade Balance Period: Mar Previous Reading: 3.12bln Forecast: 3.01bln Actual Reading: 3.10bln
A country's trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payment, giving valuable insight into pressures on country's currency.
Surpluses and Deficits
A positive Trade Balance (surplus) indicates that exports are greater than imports. When imports exceed exports, the country experiences a trade deficit. Because foreign goods are usually purchased using foreign currency, trade deficits usually reflect currency leaking out of the country. Such currency outflows may lead to a natural depreciation unless countered by comparable capital inflows (inflows in the form of investments, FDI - where foreigners investing in local equity, bond or real estates markets). At a bare minimum, deficits fundamentally weigh down the value of the currency.
Ramifications of Trade Balance on Markets
There are a number of factors that work to diminish the market impact of Trade Balance upon immediate release. The report is not very timely, coming some time after the reporting period. Developments in many of the figure's components are also typically anticipated well beforehand. Lastly, since the report reflects data for a specific reporting month or quarter, any significant changes in the Trade Balance should plausibly have already been felt during that period - and not during the release of data.
However, because of the overall significance of Trade Balance data in forecasting trends in the Forex Market, the release has historically been one of the most important reports out of the any country.
Event: BOJ Press Conference Period: Apr Previous Reading: Forecast: Actual Reading:
It's among the primary methods the BOJ uses to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. It covers the factors that affected the most recent interest rate decision, the overall economic outlook, inflation, and clues regarding future monetary policy. hide
Event: Consumer Price Index Flash Period: Apr Previous Reading: 2.3% y/y Forecast: 2.5% y/y Actual Reading: 2.6% y/y
The Consumer Price Index's (CPI) Flash Estimate measures the inflation rate incurred by consumers when purchasing goods and services. It typically carries a significant impact as traders depend on this information for a glimpse into inflationary pressures and its impact on the nation's currency.
The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.
Note: The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems.
An accurate early indicator of monthly retail sales in the U.K. CBI realized sales was first introduced in 1983 by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) and is based on the CBI's Distributive Trades Survey (DTS), which covers 20,000 outlets of firms responsible for a large component of the of retail sector.
Event: Asset Purchase Target Period: Apr Previous Reading: 80В Forecast: 60В Actual Reading: 60В
The expanded asset purchase programme (APP) includes all purchase programmes under which private sector securities and public sector securities are purchased to address the risks of a too prolonged period of low inflation. hide
A mechanism that central banks use when lending funds to primary dealers. Lending facilities provide financial institutions with access to funds in order to satisfy reserve requirements using the overnight lending market. Lending facilities are also used to increase liquidity over longer periods such as by using term auction facilities.
Financial institutions can place surplus funds in the European Central Bank-administered Marginal Lending Facility to be loaned to institutions requiring overnight loans to meet temporary cash shortages. The Deposit Rate is the interest paid to depositors when they place funds with their respective national Central Bank within the Eurosystem.
Event: ECB Interest Rate Decision Period: Apr Previous Reading: 0.00% Forecast: 0.00% Actual Reading: 0.00%
ECB Interest Rate Decision is announced by the European Central Bank. Usually if the ECB is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the EUR. Likewise, if the ECB has a dovish view on the European economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish. hide
Event: Prelim Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised Period: Apr Previous Reading: 0.1% m/m; 1.5% y/y Forecast: -0.1% m/m; 1.9% y/y Actual Reading: 0.0% m/m; 2.0% y/y
In addition to the Consumer Price Index for Germany (CPI) and the Retail Prices Index, the Federal Statistical Office has calculated for European purposes a Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for Germany since 1997. For the HICP, time series from January 1995 are available. The HICP is used to measure inflation in the context of international, mostly inner-European comparisons. Its calculation, which relies on harmonised concepts, methods and procedures, reflects the development of prices in the individual states based on national consumption patterns. The HICP serves, among other things, to measure the convergence criterion of "price stability" as a basis for judging whether a Member State can participate in European economic and monetary union.
The HICP is calculated for the Member States of the European Union (EU), Norway, Iceland and Switzerland. It is used to form aggregates for the euro zone (Monetary Union Index of Consumer Prices - MUICP), for the EU (European Index of Consumer Prices - EICP), and for the European Economic Area (European Economic Area Index of Consumer Prices - EEAICP). The European Central Bank makes use of the MUICP in the context of its monetary policy to judge price stability within the euro zone. hide
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