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FX.co ★ China debt way larger than it seems

China debt way larger than it seems

China debt way larger than it seems

China is one of the largest debtors in the world. According to total social financing (TSF), the country received over $20 trillion in loans in last ten years.

However, analysts at Goldman Sachs are sure that the TSF data does not reflect the real picture. They believe that China’s debt is much larger. For example, last year new debts amounted to around 25 trillion yuan, or 36 percent of GDP, but TSF showed that China’s debt increase made up only 25 percent of GDP. "The possibility that there is such a large amount of shadow lending going on in the system that is not captured in official statistics also points to [a] regulatory gap, and underscores the lack of visibility on where potential financial stress points may lie and how a possible contagion may play out," the Goldman analysts stated. The government does not want citizens and investors to know how much the country’s economy depends on credits. The truth could trigger capital outflows, which could damage China’s banking system and national currency. It could even affect global markets.

TSF can be regarded as another Chinese statistics that hides actual figures. The People’s Bank of China seems to suppress the truth by distracting maneuvers such as nationalization of the equity, bond, and currency markets.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade
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