FX.co ★ Reuters trims crude outlook for 2016

International agencies have cut their forecasts for global crude prices. While some experts were anticipating a collapse of the world economy with oil prices below 80 dollars a barrel and a sharp surge in black gold prices alongside bright future, other experts were much more realistic.

According to a Reuters poll, pundits expected Brent crude to average 42.5 dollars a barrel in 2016, down by 10 dollars from the previous month’s survey. Official data showed that oil prices already hit this mark in January. Other economists foresee a deeper fall to 31.25 dollars a barrel in oil prices. Analysts at Standard Chartered give the most pessimistic outlook projecting a plunge to as low as 10 dollars this year.

So the outlook for crude looks more like a sad horoscope now. According to the median forecast, North Sea Brent crude will be trading at 34.4 dollars in Q1. WTI will be worth 41 dollars a barrel on average in 2016, 8 dollars down from the December outlook.

The Bank of Russia has to revise its budget plan because the current situation would drag crude prices much lower than it was predicted at the end of 2015.