FX.co ★ Gold wave analysis for October 2, 2015

The gold price has made a new lower low today early at the European session, but it still holds above $1,100. The price has extended much more than I initially expected, but the wave count is still valid. Moreover, the price remains inside the big triangle pattern so a bounce towards at least $1,140 is still in play.

Black lines - bearish channel

The gold price is testing the lower triangle boundary. The price has broken below the Ichimoku cloud and it is a bearish sign. A bounce from current levels is very possible and we could reach the Ichimoku cloud and test it from below. It gives a short-term target of $1,140. Confirmation of a bullish reversal will come once the price breaks above the black downward sloping channel at $1,114.

The weekly tenkan-sen support at $1,120 was broken. The price is testing the lower triangle boundary. Support is critical here and combined with the announcement of the NFP numbers today. We could expect volatility to rise and this candle to close above the tenkan-sen. Bulls are still alive and bears need to be cautious as we remain inside the triangle.