FX.co ★ Technical analysis and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for March 25, 2015

FRANCE:

France's flash manufacturing PMI rose to a 2-month high of 48.2 (47.6 in February), Flash services activity index fell to a 2-month low of 52.8 (53.4 in February).

GERMANY:

Germany's flash manufacturing PMI hit a 8-month high of 52.4 (51.1 in February). Flash services activity index climbed to a 6-month high of 55.3 (54.7 in February).

EUROZONE:

Eurozone's flash manufacturing PMI is at 51.9 (51.0 in February). That is a 10-month high.

Eurozone's flash services PMI (2) is at 54.3 (53.7 in February). That is a 46-month high.

The euro was pushed above 1.10. This may be the initial sign that the eurozone's economy is gaining momentum.

Upcoming data

Today, traders eye German Ifo business climate. From November 2014 onwards, the index printed an uptick. In February, the data were weaker than expected. Now, we expect an uptick again.

Technical view:

The euro extended its pullback story yesterday, but bulls gave up at the end of the US session. Finally, the currency erased its intraday gains and closed with losses. Now, the euro is getting stronger. The main reason behind the sharp pullback is the US dollar's weakness after the FOMC meeting. The pair managed to hold 20Dsma at yesterday's session. Today, at the early Asian session, the euro is trading lower against the greenback. The USD is rebounding against the euro and pair is trading below 1.1000. The intraday trend is turning to bearish based on hourly moving averages. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.0953 and support is likely to be found at 1.0890. We recommend fresh selling below 1.0880 with targets at 1.0770, 1.0750, and 1.0690. An intraday week view still recommends buying with sl 1.0770. This rests on a purely technical view. However, I think the pair is likely to close above 1.1045 and bears will try to regain control. Hopefully, bulls' honeymoon is over. A daily close below 1.0770 shows that bulls are losing grip.

Bulls must try to close above 1.1045.

Bears must try to close below 1.0768.

The above levels on a closing basis can change the current picture. Until then, 250 pips trading range will play a role.

Weekly support is seen at 1.0768 and 1.0700. Bulls will have an upper hand until the pair closes above 1.0768, but limited upside.

Trade: selling below 1.0880.

Key technical levels of the euro against USD/JPY/CAD/GBP, and AUD

EUR/USD. Weekly mode favors buying with sl 1.0768. Intraday view favors bears.

EUR/JPY. Weekly mode favors buying with sl 129.67. Intraday view favors bears.

EUR/CAD. Weekly mode favors buying with sl 1.3600 with a likely target at 1.3800. Double top formation is at 1.3746.

EUR/GBP. Weekly mode favors buying with sl 0.7250 with a likely target at 0.7430 (buying above 0.7305 was advised on Monday).

EUR/AUD. Fresh selling below 1.3820.

The above analysis is based on the h4 chart. We will re-analyze if the weekly trend changes. The euro has been trading like a mirror image against USD & JPY.