FX.co ★ USD/CAD Elliott Wave Count for April 12, 2012

USD/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis
The USD/CAD pair was trading within the upward move for last few week. During the yesterday’s European session we could observe the end of 1 wave (coloured blue) at the point 1.0007, therefore during the New York session we could observe ascending toward to the 1.0050 level. We can consider this move as the end of wave 2 (coloured blue). Today during the Asian session the USD/CAD pair started developing 3 wave (coloured blue). The price is currently around the 1.0000 level, where we have strong support, but I think pair will break this level and push back to 0.9950 level today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 will retrace 161.8% of wave 1, we can define the potential targets with the Fibonacci extensions (1.0051-1.0007-1.0048); the First Take Profit at 0.9981(161.8% of wave 1) and Second Take Profit at 0.9965 (200% of wave 1). For Stop Loss we can use the 1.0020 resistance level. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the CAD Trade Balance, NHPI m/m and USD PPI m/m, Trade Balance, Unemployment Claims, Core PPI m/m, FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9988 (S2) 1.0005 (S1) 1.0016 (PP) 1.0032 (R1) 1.0049 (R2) 1.0060 (R3) 1.0076

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short position at levels 1.0000 with Stop Loss at 1.0020,Take Profit 1 at 0.9981 and Take Profit 2 at 0.9965 are recommended.