FX.co ★ Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 21, 2015

Fundamental overview:
EUR/USD is expected to trade in lower range. It is undermined by the expectations for full-scale quantitative easing measures from the European Central Bank at its meeting Thursday and lower-than-expected Germany December PPI of -1.7% on-year (versus forecast -1.4%), broadly firmer dollar undertone and fears of Greece exit from the eurozone if the anti-austerity left-wing Syriza party wins the snap elections Sunday and renege on the country's reform program and euro sales on soft EUR/GBP cross. But the EUR sentiment is soothed by the stronger-than-expected rise in Germany ZEW indicator of economic sentiment to 48.4 in January from December's 34.9 (versus forecast 40.3). EUR/USD losses are also tempered by the euro demand on buoyant EUR/JPY cross amid subdued risk aversion and the weak yen sentiment.

Technical comment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics stay suppressed at oversold levels, five- and 15-day moving averages are declining.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 1.1515. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 1.1450. The pivot point stands at 1.1665. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 1.1720 and the second target at 1.1795.

Resistance levels:
1.1720
1.1795
1.1845
Support levels:
1.1515
1.1450
1.1415