logo

FX.co ★ Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Sep 30, 2014

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Sep 30, 2014

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Sep 30, 2014

Fundamental Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate after hitting a six-year high at 109.75 on Monday. USD/JPY is undermined by the unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid diminished investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 7.61% to 15.98, S&P 500 slipped 0.25% overnight to close at 1,977.8) as pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong added to concerns over global economic outlook, while caution prevail ahead of the European Central bank's interest rate decision Thursday and U.S. nonfarm payrolls data Friday. USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.479% versus% 2.535 late Friday), surprise 1.0% on-month drop in U.S. pending home sales index to 104.7 in August (versus forecast for no change); Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY is downside limited by ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and demand from Japan importers and positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit four-year-high 85.798 Monday, last at 85.601) on relative out performance of the U.S. economy versus other major economies and stronger-than-expected rise in Dallas Fed Business Activity Index to 10.8 in September from 7.1 in August (versus forecast 9.0), as-expected 0.5% on-month increase in U.S. August consumer spending and 0.3% rise in personal income.

Technical comment:
Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought zone.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 110. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 110.30. The pivot point stands at 109.30. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 109.05 and the second target at 108.80.

Resistance levels:
110
110.30
110.45

Support levels:
109.05
108.80
108.50

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade
Go to the articles list Open trading account