FX.co ★ Medium-term forecast and an intraday recommendation on EUR/USD for August 20, 2014

The US dollar has been gaining more strength again with US housing data and building permits. The Euro was drifted to a 9-month low at the 1.3311 levels. On the downside, the pair has strong support at the 1.33-1.3295 levels; below this, 1.3250 and 1.3210 are open targets. We have been recommending the range of 1.3250-1.3210 from the 1.3650 levels. The pair lost its ground, closed below the short- and medium-term moving averages.

The monthly key resistance level moved from 1.37 to 1.3420. The bulls must close above 1.3420 on the monthly closing basis. If not, we can see the 1.32 and 1.30 levels in the medium term. Still 7 trading days are left this month. Bulls can try to close above 1.3420 at the end of the month.

A weekly close above 1.3365, turns the short-term trend positive. - Pending

A monthly close above 1.3420-1.3430 turns the corrective pull mode active. - Pending

For an intra-week outlook, the pair has support at 1.3295 (November 07, 2013 low); below this, 1.3250 (38.2 weekly fib level) and 1.3220.

Intra-week outlook on August 20-22

Key support 1.3295 1.3250 1.3220-1.3210

Key resistance 1.3363 1.3390 1.3435

Intraday- cmp 1.3315

On today's session, the pair opened above yesterday's close and held the previous day low (1.3311), made 1.3314, as of now in Asia's session. It has been making a minor support at 1.3311 for 13 hours; below this, 1.3295 will act as a major support. We recommend selling only below 1.3295 with targets at the 1.3250 and 1.3220-1.3210 levels. On the higher side, it has resistance at 1.3340, 1.3361, and 1.3365 levels. A h4 candle close above 1.3340 minor pull back will take place towards 1.3360 and 1.3365. Strong buy only above 1.3365.

Fresh sell only below 1.3295

Risky buy above 1.3340

Strong pull back above 1.3365