FX.co ★ Gold wave analysis for July 23, 2014

Gold price is trading above $1,300, but I expect this important psychological support level to be broken soon. Gold price is below the Ichimoku cloud in the 4-hour chart confirming our view that $1,346 was an important top and that the trend has reversed downwards. At $1,346, I still believe we have seen the end of wave E of wave 4 and we are now at the beginning of a new downward move to $1,000.

Gold price was rejected at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and did not manage to break above the Ichimoku cloud. The Ichimoku cloud is putting pressure on the Gold price and I expect to see at least a move that will push price lower than $1,290. Support is found at $1,303 and resistance, at $1,320.

I prefer to be bearish targeting a move at least towards $1,270-60. However, my longer-term view remains much more bearish targeting $1,000 and lower. As can be seen in the chart above, the triangle wave 4 is most probably complete. Confirmation that we have started wave 5 down, will come once we break below $1,240 where wave D low is. Important resistance levels on the daily chart is the $1,346 level and the $1,360 level. Important support on the daily chart is the $1,270 level and the $1,240 price level.