FX.co ★ Technical analysis of gold for April 16, 2014

Gold tumbled after the US inflation data had beaten estimates and the Federal Reserve said it would continue its plans to taper monthly monetary stimulus. This action tends to drive up interest rates, making the U.S. Dollar a more favorable investment. On the other hand, the geopolitical issues like Ukraine tensions make traders look at safe haven assets like gold. That is why gold is holding its ground and looking for support levels to shoot upside.

Review-

Gold has been in a downtrend from $1,390 levels. In yesterday's trading session, it was beaten very badly, but it looks like purely technical. If we go through yesterday's trading pattern of the yellow metal, it was badly beaten by fundamental news and the fall taken by technical hands. If we go through the below mathematical strategy, the metal exactly did what it had to.

The formula goes like this:

Low - high = swing points

$1,300.60-$1,330.70=30.10

swing points - break down level (yesterday key level 1,318)

30.10-$1,317.70= $1,287.60

Yesterday's low was $1,287, and gold closed above the $1,300 level. Due to Ukraine tensions, traders are watching for Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen's speech about monetary policy and the U.S. economy, slated for today at the Economic Club of New York. The geopolitical tensions support gold to recover from the lower levels. As long as gold closes above $1,300 (200SMA), don't hold short positions on a positional basis.

Technical view-

Traders can enter fresh long positions above $1,304 with sl $1,300 on a closing basis. Bulls are back on track completely only above the April 14 high at $1,330 levels. On the up side, the metal will face resistance at $1,309, $1,317 (50SMA), $1,326 (200EMA), and $1,330.0. After a day close above $1,327, bulls will completely take control and the metal will submit itself to the bulls up to $1,342 and $1,359 levels.

On the down side, if the metal is unable to close above the $1,330 levels, we need to reanalyze the daily charts. In this scenario the metal will have an open target for $1,215 with intermediate support and pullbacks. The near support levels exist at $1,285.4 and $1,277.40. Risky traders can buy on dip until the metal breaks the $1,277 levels. The next major fall will happen below $1,277 for $1,261, $1,251 and $1,236.5 levels.

Intraday-

The metal is trading above the $1,300 mark. In Asia's trading session the metal is trading at $1,302 levels. It is facing resistance at $1,304 levels (38.2 fib level). Fresh intraday up move will take place above $1,304 for $1,306.50, $1,310.75, and $1,317 in intraday trading and BTST. In yesterday's trading session we recommended selling below $1,318 for intraday and STBT, it worked well. Traders can buy at cmp or even dipper with sl 1,300 on a closing basis. Risky traders, buy on dip at yesterday lows with sl $1,277 on closing basis.

The support exist at $1,299, $1,293 and $1,285.

Recommendations: Intraday + BTST.

Safe traders-

buy above $1,304 for targets $1,306.50, $1,310.75 and $1,317

buy on dip is the best strategy for intraday + btst

Positional trades-

Buy on dip with sl $1,277 on cb- targets will be updated later

Sell below $1,277 for $1,261, $1,251 and $1,236.5 levels.