FX.co ★ Elliott Wave analysis of AUD/USD for January 31, 2014

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
The AUD/USD pair continued moving downwards yesterday, so our primary count is still valid and we are still going with an idea that wave .c (coloured black) of the bigger wave iii (coloured blue) is developing at the moment. In the 1-hour chart, we can see that the AUD/USD pair has missed our invalidation point by few pips, and now the descending move from the 0.8826 level looks like FLAT pattern. Traders who are already short should remain short against the 0.8826 level and swing traders should wait next week to get a clear signal that the wave iii is over before opening long positions at the 0.8595 level. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave C should retrace 100% of wave A, we can define the potential targets by measuring wave A with take profit at 0.8595 (100% of wave A).

Alternate count: While price holds above the 0.8657 level, our alternate count is still valid, and we are looking at the wave i (couloured blue) as completed at 0.8658, pullback that started from 0.8709 as the part of the ii wave. 0.9090 area.

Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.8645, (S2) 0.8677, (S1) 0.8735, (PP) 0.8767, (R1) 0.8825, (R2) 0.8857, (R3) 0.8915.

Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliot Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movements. That is why short position at level of 0.8700 with stop loss at 0.8750 take profit at 0.8595 are recommended.