FX.co ★ Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 31, 2014

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to trade in higher range. Liquidity was thin in Asia as financial markets in many countries in the region were shut for holiday. USD/JPY is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 81.07 versus 80.55 early Thursday) as advance estimate of fourth-quarter U.S. GDP matched forecasts with growth of 3.2% which reflects the Federal Reserve's confidence over the U.S. economy as it continue to scaled back its bond-buying stimulus program. USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. treasury yields, reduced safe-haven appeal of yen since global risk sentiment improves (S&P rose 1.13% overnight) as emerging-market currencies are stabilizing. The Turkish lira, South African rand and Russian ruble were bounced back from earlier lows on Thursday, demand from the Japan importers and investment trusts and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But dollar sentiment is dented by bigger-than-expected 8.7% fall in U.S. December pending home sales index (versus minus 0.8% forecast). USD/JPY gains are also tempered by Japan exporter sales and positions adjustment before weekend.

Technical сomment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is turning bullish at oversold zone.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.75 and the second target at 103.05. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.8. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.55. The pivot point is at 102.

Resistance levels:
102.75
103.05
103.55

Support levels:
101.8
101.55
101.25