FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on March 28, 2024

EUR/USD

Yesterday, the balance indicator line prevented the euro from falling further on the daily chart. This morning, the price is trying to break through this support once again. Overall, the price is facing a strong and wide range, which prevents the bears from attacking - 1.0788-1.0808 - from MA144 to the balance line. Overcoming such an obstacle opens up the possibility of the pair falling to 1.0632 - the October 2023 low.

On the 4-hour chart, the balance indicator line also prevented the price from rising. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator turned down from the zero line this morning. If today's US GDP data doesn't turn out to be a disappointment, the dollar has a good chance of rising by the end of the day.

At this stage of the overvalued US stock market, there is another reason for its correlation with the national currency, which we have been mentioning more and more lately - if the S&P 500 starts to fall under its own weight, which could even be triggered by weak GDP data, the euro could also fall as a result of market participants moving away from risk.

The euro may stop falling if the price overcomes the MACD line around the 1.0855 mark, after which there is a risk that it could further rise towards the target level of 1.0905.