FX.co ★ USDJPY: Rebound (Oct 03, 2013)

OvervieW:
USD/JPY is consolidating with bullishness after hitting a five-week low of 97.15 Wednesday. it is undermined by negative dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit an eight-month low of 79.781 overnight; last at 79.90 versus 80.18 early Wednesday) after U.S. ADP report showed the private sector added 166,000 jobs in September, below 178,000 forecast, while the August job-growth figure was revised down to 159,000 from 176,000; Fed's Rosengren said the Fed should reduce the pace of its bond purchases very slowly, perhaps over several years, as data suggest the economy is "treading water," and a disruption in the collection of reliable government statistics due to the shutdown could further delay tapering. USD/JPY also weighed by lower U.S. Treasury yields, Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by demand from Japan importers; improving risk appetite after President Obama invited Congressional leaders to the White House to discuss the government shutdown and the looming deadline to raise the debt ceiling, and mounting signs of collaboration in Congress after some Republicans in the House of Representatives have become amenable to passing a "clean" spending bill with no strings attached. Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, although the latter is in oversold territory; 5- and 15-day moving averages are declining.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 98.1 and the second target at 98.55. In alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points short positions are recommended with the first target at 97. The breach of this target will move the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 96.7. The pivot point stands at 97.2.

Resistance levels:
98.1
98.55
98.75

Support levels:
97
96.7
96.25