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Mourad El Keddani
10 Feb 2016, 09:36 UTC+00
The NZD/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.6613. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 0.6613, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.6613, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend.
Mourad El Keddani
10 Feb 2016, 09:10 UTC+00
Yesterday, the USD/CHF pair dropped sharply from the level of 0.9908 towards 0.9694. Now, the price is set at 0.9737. On the H4 chart, the resistance of USD/CHF pair is seen at the level of 0.9795 and 0.9826. It should be noted that volatility is very high for that the USD/CHF pair is still moving between 0.9694 and 0.9795 in coming hours. Moreover, the price spot of 0.9795/0.9826 remains a significant resistance zone.
10 Feb 2016, 08:39 UTC+00
The USD/JPY pair is under pressure now. Overnight, the US stocks closed slightly lower after a choppy session. Energy shares declined and oil prices plunged again, while materials and health-care shares were the best performers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.1% to 16014, the S&P 500 also slipped 0.1% to 1852, while the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.4% to 4268.
10 Feb 2016, 08:32 UTC+00
USD/CHF is expected to hit the target at 0.9690. The pair accelerated to the downside yesterday and reached a low of 0.9691 (last seen in October). Though it managed to initiate a rebound from the low, the rebound has lost momentum and the first downside target at 0.9690 is in sight again. Below this level, the next support would be found at 0.9620. Intraday technical indicators (20-, 50-period moving average, the relative strength index) point to a continued bearish bias.
10 Feb 2016, 08:25 UTC+00
NZD/USD pair keeps on trading with a bullish bias. The pair stands above its key support at 0.66 and remains on the upside. Meanwhile, the 20-period moving average stays above the 50-period one, and the relative strength index lacks downward momentum. Further upside is therefore expected with the next horizontal resistance and overlap at 0.6685. A breakout above this level would call for further advance towards 0.6720 in extension.
10 Feb 2016, 08:13 UTC+00
GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish bias as the key resistance is seen at 167.35. The pair stays below its key resistance and remains under pressure. The 20-period moving average remains below the 50-period one, while the relative strength index lacks upward momentum. A first target to the downside is therefore seen at 164.55. A breakout below this level would open the way to further weakness toward 164.
10 Feb 2016, 07:33 UTC+00
Following the disappointing Christmas period for the UK retailers the new year kicked off with a strong start. The UK retail spending growth hit the highest level in four month in January according to British Retail Consortium. It rose 3.3% last month compared with the reporting period a year ago, up from a 1.0% gain in December.
10 Feb 2016, 07:11 UTC+00
The FED Chair Janet Yellen will testify in front of House Financial Services Committee today at 03:00pm GMT. The financial market participants will be very sensitive to any remarks given by her regarding the short-term interest rate expectations. After recent negative NFP figure it will be interesting to know how this years events have altered the central banks expectations. According to CME Group FED Fund Futures, the markets are now pricing out a 79% of chance that the rate will be still 0.5% at December 2016, which means the probability of a rate hike in 2016 dramatically dropped since the last FED meeting. In conclusion: please keep an eye on today's Yellen testimony as it might play an important role in interest rate expectations.
10 Feb 2016, 06:47 UTC+00
The US dollar index hit new lows yesterday. Now it is trading inside a downward sloping channel. A trend is bearish as long as the price is below 97.50.
10 Feb 2016, 06:44 UTC+00
Gold price is making a consolidation near highs between $1,185 and $1,200. This trading range once broken will provide at least a short-term trend pushing the price to at least $1,215 or $1,160.
10 Feb 2016, 05:39 UTC+00
From Elliott wave point of view, there is a clear impulsive structure to the upside, developed as five-wave pattern. The level of 1.3784 had been tested from the upside and now it is expected to act as intraday support. This counter-trend corrective movement looks completed now as well and the next level to keep an eye on is technical resistance at 1.4102 just below the weekly pivot resistance at 1.4125. Any sustained breakout above the level of 1.3978 will be the first clue supporting our bullish bias.
10 Feb 2016, 05:35 UTC+00
The GBP/CHF pair dropped lower as discussed and expected yesterday, and it has reached a low of 1.4000. The pair is now trading around the level of 1.4080.
10 Feb 2016, 05:32 UTC+00
The intraday resistance level was violated yesterday, but the market wasn't strong enough to follow the breakout. Moreover, the three-wave corrective cycle labeled as abc purple looks completed now and the market might be ready for rally. Nevertheless, it is worth to mention, that this corrective cycle might still get a little more complex and time-consuming. The first clue of the market trend resuming will be a breakout above the level of 130.25 towards the golden trend-line resistance.
10 Feb 2016, 05:09 UTC+00
Gold produced a pin bar candlestick pattern in the daily chart yesterday. The metal is trading around the levels of $1,190.00/91.00.
10 Feb 2016, 05:03 UTC+00
The USD/CHF pair is in a strong trend. Since January 29, 2016, it has come down by 550 pips. From the high reached on Monday, February 8, 2016, it has lost 260 pips. The perceived weakness in the USD coupled with the ongoing strength in the CHF (as evident on CHF pairs) is responsible for the strong bearish trend. The support level at 0.9700 has already been tested and it will be tested again. It could even be breached to the downside.