Forex Analysis
Ahsan Aslam
27 Mar 2015, 18:14 UTC+00
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with buoyant tone after hitting a five-week low of 118.33 on Thursday. It is underpinned by the improved dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 97.33 versus 96.92 early Thursday) and higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 1.996% versus 1.920% late Wednesday) after a fewer-than-expected naumber of 282,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended on March 21 (versus forecast 290,000), a stronger-than-expected rise in Markit flash U.S. composite PMI to 58.5 in March from 57.2 in February (versus forecast 57.0), while Fed's Lockhart said that the strong U.S. economy meant that summer Fed meetings are "in play" for possible rate increases, and Fed's Bullard said that interest rates should be raises as soon as the risks for holding them near zero for too long remained significant.
Ahsan Aslam
27 Mar 2015, 18:05 UTC+00
USD/CHF is expected to consolidate in higher range after hitting one-month low 0.9484 on Thursday. It is underpinned by the comment from SNB's Fritz Zurbrugg that Switzerland is facing difficult times, a short period of deflation following January's unwinding of the EUR/CJF currency peg, improved dollar sentiment, Swissie sales on cross trades versus major currencies, negative Swiss interest rates, and threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the positions adjustment ahead of weekend.
Ahsan Aslam
27 Mar 2015, 17:52 UTC+00
NZD/USD is expected to trade with bearish bias. It is undermined by the improved dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 97.33 versus 96.92 early Thursday), higher US Treasury yields (10-year at 1.996% versus 1.920% late Wednesday), fewer-than-expected 282,000 US jobless claims in the week ended 21 March (versus forecast 290,000), and a stronger-than-expected rise in Markit flash US composite PMI (58.5 in March from 57.2 in February versus the forecast of 57.0). Besides, Fed's Lockhart said that stronger US economy means that summer Fed's meetings are "in play" for possible rate hike. Fed's Bullard said the interest rates should be raised soon as there are risks of holding them near zero for too long. The kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid subdued investors' appetite for risk. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the firmer commodity prices and positions adjustment ahead of weekend.
Ahsan Aslam
27 Mar 2015, 17:44 UTC+00
GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the diminished investors' appetite for risk, weaker EUR/USD undertone, and export sales of Japan. But EUR/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan importers and positions adjustment ahead of weekend.
Felipe Erazo
27 Mar 2015, 16:43 UTC+00
The daily chart shows us a decisive formation of the USDX's future trend. As we stated in the last article, the support level at 96.60 could produce a strong rebound on this instrument and eventually, the USDX could resume the bullish bias and also, to perform rallies towards the resistance zone around 98.01.
Felipe Erazo
27 Mar 2015, 16:42 UTC+00
The GBP/USD pair has been trapped in the low range that we mentioned in the latest article. The daily chart is still showing a strong bearish structure, as the 200 SMA is still pointing to the downside. Remember that the GBP/USD pair is forming a lower low pattern.
Petar Jacimoviс
27 Mar 2015, 16:29 UTC+00
Be careful when selling EUR/NZD at this stage since we can observe possible re-testing of our downward channel (4h time frame). Anyway, we still need to break channel on the daily time frame. EUR/NZD found support around the level of 1.4280.
Mohamed Samy
27 Mar 2015, 15:58 UTC+00
Last week, GBP/USD bulls successfully defended the recent bottom at 1.4700. Evident bullish rejection was expressed around 1.4630 resulting in the formation of a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern. Persistence above 1.4980-1.5000 (neck-line) is likely to extend the pattern's projection target at 1.5200. Otherwise, the GBP/USD pair remains in the long-term downtrend as depicted on both the daily and weekly charts.
Mohamed Samy
27 Mar 2015, 15:53 UTC+00
Successive lower highs were established within the wedge-pattern. However, the market expressed a bullish breakout above 1.2550-1.2600 shortly after. Earlier this week, the market failed to persist above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) resulting in the formation of a double-top pattern that waits for confirmation (Daily closure below 1.2350). The nearest support level to meet the USD/CAD pair is located around 1.2350 (lower limit of the confirmed wedge pattern) and 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level that provided significant support for successive weeks on the daily chart).
Michael Becker
27 Mar 2015, 15:36 UTC+00
Recently, the market has failed to trade above the price level of 1.4970 so far (multiple tops are being expressed around 1.4970-1.5000). Conservative traders should note that the GBP/USD pair remains trapped between 1.4700 and 1.4970 until a breakout occurs in either direction (transient consolidation range should be expected). However, a bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.5080-1.5100 (recent supply zone) may be watched for a quick intraday sell entry. Stop loss should be located above 1.5150.
Michael Becker
27 Mar 2015, 15:33 UTC+00
As anticipated, after such a long bearish rally (which started off 1.1300) bullish rejection existed around 1.0570 (MONTHLY DEMAND level). Since then, the EUR/USD pair has been uptrending towards 1.1140. Daily persistence above the price zone of 1.0850-1.0860 (recent DEMAND zone) enhances the probability of a quick corrective movement towards 1.1100 where a long-term sell position can be offered.
Harsh Japee
27 Mar 2015, 14:21 UTC+00
Technical analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/JPY for March 27, 2015. The EUR/JPY pair dropped to the level of 129.00. Fibonacci support is expected here.
Harsh Japee
27 Mar 2015, 14:09 UTC+00
Technical analysis and trading recommendations for GBP/CHF for March 27, 2015. The GBP/CHF pair seems to have found support at 1.4200. A pullback is expected.
Petar Jacimoviс
27 Mar 2015, 14:03 UTC+00
Be carfeful when buying gold around the level of $1,200.00 since we can observe rejection from our Fibonacci retracement 38.2%. We may see correaction and potential testing the level of $1,190.00.
Harsh Japee
27 Mar 2015, 13:37 UTC+00
Technical analysis and trading recommendations for Silver for March 27, 2015. Silver pushed through the level $17.41 yesterday before pulling back.
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