FX.co ★ Hot forecast for EUR/USD on April 11, 2024

Everyone was expecting US inflation to rise, but no one could have imagined that consumer prices would accelerate to 3.5%. After all, inflation was forecasted to rise from 3.2% to 3.4%. Therefore, it is not surprising that the dollar surged. Moreover, there are speculations that the Federal Reserve might even raise the rate in the summer. Such reasoning is not without merit, considering that inflation has picked up for the second consecutive month, and faster than expected. However, for the most part, market participants lean towards the idea that interest rates will start to be lowered in the fall. Although it seems that these expectations will be revised soon.

For now, the market has slightly pulled back, which is quite logical. Nevertheless, the dollar will likely rise in the end. Today, the main event is the European Central Bank meeting, and its results could support the dollar. Most likely, the ECB will finally specify when it will begin to lower rates. After all, inflation in Europe is not just slowing down but is also approaching the target level of 2.0%. So, the ECB is dealing with a different situation compared to the Federal Reserve.

EUR/USD plunged by more than 100 pips in just a few hours. As a result, the quotes approached the previous week's local low.

On the 4-hour chart, the RSI reached the oversold zone, which suggests that the instrument may be due for a price correction.

On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs have changed direction.

Outlook

Speculative sentiment still prevails in the market despite clear signs of the euro's oversold condition. In this situation, the outcome of the ECB meeting will play an important role, potentially triggering a new wave of speculation.

In terms of complex indicator analysis, indicators point to the downward cycle in the short-term and intraday periods.