FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on March 29, 2024

EUR/USD

Yesterday was a good day for the dollar: the final estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter was revised upwards from 3.2% y/y to 3.4% y/y, while the UK GDP contracted by 0.3%, and retail sales in Germany decreased by 1.9%. Today, markets in Europe, the US, and Canada are closed for a holiday, which will contribute to the lackluster price action. From a technical perspective, this allows the price to consolidate below the level of 1.0796 on the daily chart, even if the pair ends the day with gains, it wouldn't even exceed 7 pips. In fact, the target of 1.0724 is already open. The second target is 1.0632.

An alternative scenario will unfold if the price consolidates above 1.0796 next week. In this case, the current price dip below the level will be considered a false move, and the pair will be on track to rise to 1.0905. The Marlin oscillator does not yet suggest a possible upward reversal.

On the 4-hour chart, the price has already consolidated below the level of 1.0796. The Marlin oscillator is declining in the downtrend territory. The price still hasn't managed to rise above the balance indicator line. The downtrend remains intact.

Despite the holiday, Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak about monetary policy in San Francisco.