FX.co ★ Frexit to follow?

A presidential election in any advanced country sends ripples across financial markets. Indeed, the latest US election showed that an underdog could win favor with the majority. Unexpected outcome could be game-changing for any stocks, currencies, and a global political landscape. In an effort to attract more voters, powerful nominees compete in bald statements. Donald Trump is famous for his eccentric public comments.

The ongoing presidential race in France is no exception. Leader of the far-right National Front Marine Le Pen has been already termed the local Trump. She has vowed to lead the country out of the eurozone if she wins. One of the pillars in her program is reintroduction of the French franc. From her viewpoint, the new franc will be worth the same as the euro and it will be also pegged to the basket of major currencies. According to the tricky scenario of Le Pen, the forex rate of the new currency is likely to drop immediately against any currency used by Germany. As a result, the weaker franc will help French exporters, in particular car manufacturers, to gain advantage over trade competitors. Interestingly, she is expressing contradictory views on the exit from the euro area throughout the campaign. Marine Le Pen has recently brought up the issue of leaving the common currency. Political experts say she is just trying to woo voters by exploiting the popular anti-euro stance. The progressive French electorate tends to support such ideas. Polls revealed last month that Le Pen would win the first round in April but is likely to lose in the second round in May. "Monday she’s out of the euro, Tuesday she’s not, Wednesday she pegs, Thursday she fluctuates,” Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis Securities, said with indignation. “It’s nonsense and it will never be implemented. We have to stop taking her economic pretensions seriously.”