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Mourad El Keddani
1 Sep 2015, 14:31 UTC+00
The USD/CHF pair will set strong resistance at the level of 0.9734 and support at 0.9592 today. Besides, the daily pivot point has been already set at the price of 0.9603. So, the last bullish wave began from the daily pivot point at the level of 0.9603 on the first day of September 2015. Additionally, the price is still moving above the key level (0.9570) since last week. Therefore, the USD/CHF pair will get an upside momentum. It is rather convincing and the structure of ascension does not look corrective. Bullish opportunity is above the 0.9590/0.9603 level. Consequently, it will be a good sign to buy above 0.9590/0.9603 with the first target of 0.9682.
1 Sep 2015, 12:21 UTC+00
The US Dollar Index is reversing lower as we expected from the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. The index is going to test the cloud support at 94.90-94.70. If this support is broken, we should expect a test of the recent lows at 93.
1 Sep 2015, 12:16 UTC+00
Gold prices bounce above short-term support and has most probably started its next upward move towards $1,170 or even higher. Bulls remain in control as long as prices are above $1,125. The short-term trend is bullish.
1 Sep 2015, 11:51 UTC+00
Overnight disappointing data from Asia (Chinese PMI lower than expected at 49.7 v s. 49.8) was not surprising, so the overall investor sentiment is still very negative in regard to the future of the global recovery. The Chinese PMI fell to the lowest levels in three years. The next PMI data for today will be released in the EU countries just before 10:00 GMT (Germany, France, Spain, and total for the EU), and PMI Manufacturing news release from the UK is scheduled at 10:30 GMT as well. Please notice those are revised figures, so traders should not expect a sharp market reaction unless a revision is very significant.
1 Sep 2015, 11:37 UTC+00
Yesterday's market rumor about big shortage in US crude oil inventories were the main reason behind an upward rally of crude up to the level of 49.50. Moreover, there is another rumor that the OPEC meeting could result in production cuts in order to keep crude prices rising.
1 Sep 2015, 10:37 UTC+00
The market is trading inside of a narrow range below the weekly pivot at the level of 136.50. The upside scenario is still possible, but first the weekly pivot and the intraday resistance at the level of 136.60 must be clearly violated in an impulsive fashion. Only then, wave (b) blue might hit the projected target at the level of 137.59. Otherwise, the market will continue to consolidate inside the bearish zone.
1 Sep 2015, 10:31 UTC+00
An anticipated wave c purple to the upside did not materialize so far, and the market was too weak to breakout above the recent swing high. The count has been adjusted accordingly, showing the prospects of a top for wave X brown or the larger cycle top for wave 5 purple of wave B purple. Please notice, that the top confirmation comes with further decline and breakout below the level of 1.3000.
1 Sep 2015, 07:49 UTC+00
Amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.
1 Sep 2015, 07:48 UTC+00
There is a strong probability taht USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during the day.
1 Sep 2015, 07:47 UTC+00
We are caught between a bullish and bearish scenario. We have shown the possible bearish count over the last couple of days and would like to recap on the bullish count as it is still alive. The failure of a breakout below support at 1.7103 has kept the bullish scenario alive. If this count proves correct, a new rally to the zone above 1.9023 should be seen.
1 Sep 2015, 07:35 UTC+00
There are still no changes in the view - We expect an upside breakout through the minor resistance at 136.62 confirming a continuation higher towards 139.02 and 141.06. A break below support at 135.23 could take place, but we think the downside potential should be limited. Only a break below the important support level of 133.27 will indicate a much more complex correction unfolding from a high of 141.06.
1 Sep 2015, 04:51 UTC+00
The cable traded lower on Monday, testing the accumulation territory at 1.5350 again. That accumulation territory was also tested last week without breaking it to the downside. Bears need to break it to the downside in order to continue the bearish trend; otherwise, there would be a considerable rally.
1 Sep 2015, 00:48 UTC+00
On the daily chart, the USDX remains above the support level of 95.83 and is looking for a way to perform a rally towards the next resistance around the level of 96.64. Currently, our view is still sideways, but the USDX could perform a pullback towards the support level of 95.26.
1 Sep 2015, 00:47 UTC+00
GBP/USD is still trading lower looking for an opportunity to break the support level of 1.5329, where it could rebound and resume the overall bullish trend. However, our view is still bearish, because that zone could be broken to the downside.
31 Aug 2015, 19:46 UTC+00
A valid sell entry with a low risk/reward ratio was suggested around the levels of 1.5780-1.5800. It is already running in profits now. The nearest support levels to meet the GBP/USD pair are located at 1.5355 (already reached) then 1.5250 (waiting to be achieved). Note that persistence below the zone of 1.5450 (lower limit of the broken consolidation range) and 1.5350 (Recent Weekly Bottom) is essential to push the GBP/USD pair towards lower bearish targets at 1.5350 and 1.5245.