Forex analysis

Forex analysis
The Forex analysis section contains experts’ reviews of financial markets, daily online forecasts of currencies dynamics, and analysis of financial markets for a week ahead. Over two dozens of Russian and Western currency strategists share their forecasts for tomorrow and offer their advice on trading. A stream of fresh quality analytical materials on MT5 is one of essential instruments of successful trading.
Ahsan Aslam
3 May 2016, 04:53 UTC+00
NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish bias. The pair remains on the upside within its bullish channel. The nearest support at 0.6930 maintains strong buying pressure on the prices. Besides, the relative strength index is heading upward and stays above its neutrality area at 50. To sum up, as long as 0.6930 holds on the downside, look for further advance to 0.7025 and 0.7055 in extension.
Ahsan Aslam
3 May 2016, 04:31 UTC+00
GBP/JPY is still under pressure. The pair stays below its key resistance at 157.15 and remains under pressure. Meanwhile, the relative strength index is negatively oriented. As long as 157.15 is not broken up, the first target to the downside is set at 154. A break below this level would open the way to further weakness toward 153.15.
Sebastian Seliga
3 May 2016, 03:37 UTC+00
In his recent remarks on Monday at the Milken Institute Global Conference, John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, reiterated his view that the US economy is ready for higher interest rates. In his opinion, the gradual return to more normal interest rate levels over the next couple of years would make more sense as that would be a sign of strength for the global economy. Moreover, he added that the biggest systemic financial risk is the possibility that "broad sets of assets are going to see big movements downward" as interest rates rise. Nevertheless, he insisted on the fact, that the Fed has made an amazing progress in the recent years, and they are prepared for the ongoing global headwinds. In conclusion, the hawkish tone of Williams' speech might shed some light on the Fed's possible further policy towards interest rates hike, but please remember that he is known for being the leader of the Fed's hawks camp for years now.
Sebastian Seliga
3 May 2016, 03:19 UTC+00
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut its interest rates by 0.25% to 1.75% for the first time in 12 months this morning. In its announcement, the RBA said: "Inflation has been quite low for some time and recent data was unexpectedly low. While the quarterly data contain some temporary factors, these results, together with ongoing very subdued growth in labour costs and very low cost pressures elsewhere in the world, point to a lower outlook for inflation than previously forecast".
Sebastian Seliga
3 May 2016, 03:05 UTC+00
Not much has changed in this pair since yesterday: the market is still trading above the intraday support and there is still a possibility that the ending diagonal pattern is forming right now in this market. It will act as a final wave of the whole corrective structure in wave Z. To confirm this scenario, the market must make one more sub-wave to the downside and then strongly rebound to the upside, targeting the first the intraday resistance at the level of 1.2587 and then the level of 1.2756. Otherwise the corrective wave progression will evolve into a more complex and time-consuming pattern.
Sebastian Seliga
3 May 2016, 03:02 UTC+00
The weekly pivot at the level of 122.97 has proven to be a tough nut to crack so far as the price has been rejected two times already. Nevertheless, from the Elliott wave perspective the outlook is still the same: two counts are possible here. The main count indicates an (a)(b)(c) irregular flat corrective cycle with the (c) leg yet to unfold. The (b) leg of this cycle is currently completed with the bottom at the level of 121.68. The alternative count, however, indicates that the top for the big wave B is already in place at the level of 126.45 and since then the impulsive structure in big wave C started to develop to the downside. Wave 1 of this cycle is completed, and now the market should develop an internal corrective cycle to the upside, targeting the levels of 122.97 and if broken, 124.30. Please notice that the growing bullish divergence between the price and momentum oscillator supports both views at the time of writing.
Torben Melsted
3 May 2016, 01:35 UTC+00
The rally of the 1.6196 low is not yet convincing in any way, but as long as this low is able to protect the downside, we will let the bullish outlook have the benefit of doubt and look for more upside pressure towards 1.6592 and higher towards 1.6874. In the short term, we must allow for a minor set-back to 1.6314 before a new test of the minor resistance at 1.6465 is expected and above here calls for a test of 1.6592 and higher. Only an unexpected break below 1.6196 will invalidate the bullish outlook and call for a move closer to 1.6100.
Torben Melsted
3 May 2016, 01:27 UTC+00
The extremely erratic decline from 141.06 could have bottomed at 121.66, but if this is the case, then a break above minor resistance at 122.95 should be seen soon and, more importantly, a break above resistance at 124.04 will confirm the low for a new rally back to 126.47. That said, we have to be aware of the possibility of more downside pressure to below 121.66 for a move closer to 117.99 as long as minor resistance at 122.95 is able to protect the upside.
Harsh Japee
2 May 2016, 23:51 UTC+00
The EUR/JPY pair rallied through 122.90 levels yesterday before pulling back lower. As it was discussed yesterday, the pair should extend its retracement towards 123.30 levels at least.
Arief Makmur
2 May 2016, 23:48 UTC+00
EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.
Arief Makmur
2 May 2016, 23:48 UTC+00
There is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.
Harsh Japee
2 May 2016, 23:39 UTC+00
The GBP/CHF pair is seen to be trading lower at 1.3995 levels at the moment, looking to resume its rally towards 1.4300 levels before producing a meaningful retracement lower. The wave structure indicated that GBP/CHF might have just resumed its rally.
Harsh Japee
2 May 2016, 23:26 UTC+00
Silver is trading at $17.60/70 levels for now after hitting fresh highs at $18.00 levels yesterday. The metal might have formed a meaningful top around $18.00 levels or would push through $18.40/50 levels before reversing lower.
Harsh Japee
2 May 2016, 23:10 UTC+00
Gold is seen to be trading at $1,292.00 levels at the moment, after hitting fresh highs at $1,303.00/04.00 levels yesterday. The yellow metal is expected to face resistance at $1,295.00/96.00 levels.
Azeez Mustapha
2 May 2016, 21:27 UTC+00
The USD/CHF went downwards on Monday, in solidarity with the bearish signal that started last week. As it was forecasted, the price has gone below the resistance level at 0.9600, targeting the support level at 0.9500; which would be broken to the downside very soon. The bias on the market is bearish.
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