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00:00 |
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MBA Mortgage Applications
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May
|
9.2% |
|
|
|
Gauges demand for mortgage application in the US . Tracking new home mortgages and refinances, MBA Mortgage Applications Survey serves at a current indicator for the US housing market. Growth in mortgages suggests a healthy housing market. Due to the multiplier effect housing has on the rest of the economy, rising activity suggests increased household income and economic expansion. The headline figure is the weekly percentage change in the MBA Mortgage Applications figure.
Among the various indices measured in the survey, the purchase index and refinancing index most accurately reflect where the housing market is headed. The purchasing index measures the change in existing home sales in all mortgage applications, while the refinance index measures the mortgage refinancing activity in all mortgage applications.
Note: Due to volatility in the sector, markets also focus on the four week moving averages. |
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01:30 |
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Retail Sales
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Mar
|
-0.2% m/m |
0.4% m/m |
|
|
Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Retail Sales is a leading indicator for the economy. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures.
The headline figure is expressed as the percentage change from the same month last year. |
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01:30 |
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Retail Sales Ex-Auto
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Mar
|
0.5% m/m |
0.6% m/m |
|
|
Monthly measure of sales of goods to consumers at retail outlets. The figure is a significant market mover, valuable both for its timeliness and insight into consumer demand and consumer confidence. Consumer spending is vital to the US economy, accounting for more than two-thirds of all economic activity. Given that retail sales make up a hefty one third of such spending, the Advanced Retail Sales figure acts as a measure of consumer demand before GDP is released.
The figure has its limits, though. For instance, the timely release of the report comes at the cost of volatility in the figures and significant monthly revisions. It is not unusual for the figure to come out positive one month, only to be subsequently revised as negative. Retail Sales can also be volatile due to seasonality. Additionally, the report has been criticized for excluding service sector sales and failing to adjust for inflation. Despite these drawbacks, the figure still moves the market on release, mainly because of the importance of consumer spending to the Canadian economy.
The Retail Sales figure is calculated as the total receipts of retail sales in nominal dollars based on a sample of stores throughout the month - returns, taxes and finance charges are excluded. It appears in the headlines as the annualize percentage change from the previous month.
Advance Retail Sales Less Autos
The Retail Sales figure is also reported excluding automobile sales. Given their high cost, auto sales contribute significantly to retails sales, comprising nearly a quarter of the figure. As a result, changes in automobile sales can produce high fluctuations in the retails sales report. Vehicle sales are prone to seasonal changes, thereby easily distorting retail sales trends. To provide a more accurate picture of retail sales the auto component is removed and followed more closely. |
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01:30 |
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Leading Indicators
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Apr
|
0.4% m/m |
0.3% m/m |
|
|
A composite index designed to forecast developments in the Canadian economy. Movements in the ten indicators that comprise Leading Indicators are known to precede larger developments in the rest of the economy. Growth in the index suggests a healthy and growing economy. Indicators include stock market indices, the money supply, a number of durable goods indicators, the average workweek in the manufacturing sector, the real money supply, the US leading index, and business and personal services employment. Technical Note : The headline value is the percentage change in the composite index from the previous month. The index is smoothed out by averaging the data of the most recent 5 months. The index is not weighted, and is compared to an initial 1992 base year value of 100. Each point above 100 represents a 1% increase from the 1992 values. For example, if the index is at 105, it means that the index is 5% higher than what it was in 1992. |
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03:00 |
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House Price Index
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Mar
|
0.3% m/m |
0.4% m/m |
|
|
A resumptive index of house prices reflecting prices for new constructions and resale real estate markets. As all indices connected with the construction industry it can be seasonally adjusted. |
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03:00 |
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New Home Sales
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Apr
|
328K -7.1% m/m |
335K 2.1% m/m |
|
|
Sales of newly constructed residences in the United States. The figure is a timely gauge of housing market conditions counting home sales when initial housing contracts are signed. Because New Home Sales usually trigger a sequence of consumption, they have significant market impact upon release. In addition to the high expenditure of the new home, buyers are likely to spend more money on furnishing customizing and financing their home. Consequently, growth in the housing market spurs more consumption, generating demand for goods, services and the employees who provide them.
Generally the housing market is tracked by a number of reports that mark different stages of the construction and home sale process. The first stage is Building Permits, which precede Housing Starts, which lead to Construction Spending, MBA Mortgage Applications and, finally, New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales. As the headline housing figure, New Home Sales are believed to control for some of the volatility of other data. For instance, Building Permits and Housing Starts are considered more indicative of business confidence and production rather than consumer spending. And while Existing Home Sales figures are more indicative of consumer expenditures, they are lagging indicators with less predictive value. New Home Sales numbers are considered confirmatory of housing trends and still predictive of consumer spending.
New Home Sales is also a good indicator of economic turning points due to its sensitivity to consumer income. Buying a house is always a major expenditure, typically only undertaken when consumers have sufficient savings or are optimistic about future earnings. Historically, when economic conditions slow, New Home Sales are one of the first indicators to reflect the change. By the same token, New Home Sales undergo substantial growth when the economy has emerged from recession and wages have begun to pick up.
The report headline is the total amount of properties sold.
|
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11:45 |
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Trade Balance
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Apr
|
134M |
400M |
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|
A country's trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payment, giving valuable insight into pressures on country's currency.
Surpluses and Deficits
A positive Trade Balance (surplus) indicates that exports are greater than imports. When imports exceed exports, the country experiences a trade deficit. Because foreign goods are usually purchased using foreign currency, trade deficits usually reflect currency leaking out of the country. Such currency outflows may lead to a natural depreciation unless countered by comparable capital inflows (inflows in the form of investments, FDI - where foreigners investing in local equity, bond or real estates markets). At a bare minimum, deficits fundamentally weigh down the value of the currency.
Ramifications of Trade Balance on Markets
There are a number of factors that work to diminish the market impact of Trade Balance upon immediate release. The report is not very timely, coming some time after the reporting period. Developments in many of the figure's components are also typically anticipated well beforehand. Lastly, since the report reflects data for a specific reporting month or quarter, any significant changes in the Trade Balance should plausibly have already been felt during that period - and not during the release of data.
However, because of the overall significance of Trade Balance data in forecasting trends in the Forex Market, the release has historically been one of the most important reports out of the any country. |
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15:30 |
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PMI Manufacturing (HSBC)
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May
|
49.3 |
|
|
|
A monthly guage of manufacturing activity and future outlook. The CIPS PMI is comparable to the US ISM survey, similarly based on the opinions of executives in manufacturing companies. Purchasing managers are tasked with gauging future demand, and adjusting orders for materials accordingly. The PMI summarizes the opinions of these executives to give a picture of the future of the manufacturing sector. A higher PMI indicates that materials purchases are increasing and that the economic outlook is positive. Alternately, a lower PMI means orders for materials are down and the future outlook is less favorable. By nature, the figure is very sensitive to the business cycle and tends to match growth or decline in the economy as a whole.
The PMI is presented as an index with a value between 1-100. |
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18:00 |
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Bank of Japan monthly economic report
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May
|
|
|
|
|
The Bank of Japan announces its economic decisions in monthly report. |
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19:00 |
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GDP
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1 quarter
|
0.5% q/q 1.7% y/y |
0.5% q/q 1.7% y/y |
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An indicator for broad overall growth in Germany. Robust German GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity, and therefore a high demand for currency. Economic expansion also raises concerns about inflationary pressure, which generally prompts monetary authorities to increase interest rates. This means that positive GDP readings are generally bullish for a given currency, while negative readings are bearish.
Due to the untimeliness of this report and because data on GDP components are available beforehand, the actual GDP figure is usually well anticipated. But given its overall significance GDP has the tendency to move the market upon release, acting to confirm or upset economic expectations. Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of activity that is generally associated with a healthy economy. However economic expansion also raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead to monetary policy tightening.
The headline figure for German GDP is an annualized percentage growth rate.
Technically, Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way:
GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)
where
C = private consumption
I = private investment
G = government expenditure
EX = exports of goods and services
IM = imports of goods and services
Technical note : GDP is the total market value of goods and services produced in Germany within a given period after deducting the cost of goods and services used up in the process of production. Therefore, GDP excludes intermediate goods and services and considers final aggregates only. |
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19:00 |
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Trade Balance
|
Apr
|
1.69bln |
1.95bln |
|
|
A country's trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payment, giving valuable insight into pressures on country's currency.
Surpluses and Deficits
A positive Trade Balance (surplus) indicates that exports are greater than imports. When imports exceed exports, the country experiences a trade deficit. Because foreign goods are usually purchased using foreign currency, trade deficits usually reflect currency leaking out of the country. Such currency outflows may lead to a natural depreciation unless countered by comparable capital inflows (inflows in the form of investments, FDI - where foreigners investing in local equity, bond or real estates markets). At a bare minimum, deficits fundamentally weigh down the value of the currency.
Ramifications of Trade Balance on Markets
There are a number of factors that work to diminish the market impact of Trade Balance upon immediate release. The report is not very timely, coming some time after the reporting period. Developments in many of the figure's components are also typically anticipated well beforehand. Lastly, since the report reflects data for a specific reporting month or quarter, any significant changes in the Trade Balance should plausibly have already been felt during that period - and not during the release of data.
However, because of the overall significance of Trade Balance data in forecasting trends in the Forex Market, the release has historically been one of the most important reports out of the any country. |
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20:00 |
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PMI Manufacturing
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May
|
46.9 |
47.1 |
|
|
A monthly guage of manufacturing activity and future outlook. The CIPS PMI is comparable to the US ISM survey, similarly based on the opinions of executives in manufacturing companies. Purchasing managers are tasked with gauging future demand, and adjusting orders for materials accordingly. The PMI summarizes the opinions of these executives to give a picture of the future of the manufacturing sector. A higher PMI indicates that materials purchases are increasing and that the economic outlook is positive. Alternately, a lower PMI means orders for materials are down and the future outlook is less favorable. By nature, the figure is very sensitive to the business cycle and tends to match growth or decline in the economy as a whole.
The PMI is presented as an index with a value between 1-100. |
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20:00 |
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PMI Services
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May
|
45.2 |
45.8 |
|
|
Gauge for the overall performance of the country's service sector. The Services PMI interviews executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. Because the performance of the country's service sector is extremely consistent over time, services does not impact final GDP figures as much as the more volatile figure on the manufacturing sector. For this reason Services PMI usually causes little market movement. The survey results are quantified and presented as an index on a 1-100 scale. The headline figure is the percentage change in the index. |
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20:30 |
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PMI Services
|
May
|
52.2 |
51.9 |
|
|
Gauge for the overall performance of the German service sector. The Services PMI interviews German executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. Because the performance of the German service sector is extremely consistent over time, services does not impact final GDP figures as much as the more volatile figure on the manufacturing sector. For this reason Services PMI usually causes little market movement. The survey results are quantified and presented as an index on a 1-100 scale. The headline figure is the percentage change in the index. |
|
20:30 |
|
PMI Manufacturing
|
May
|
46.2 |
47.1 |
|
|
Gauge for overall performance of the German manufacturing sector. Through asking executives about sales and employment outlook, the survey strives to provide useful information about the business climate that can lead to developments in employment, output and consumption. The PMI survey results are the result of interviews with business executives. Manufacturing is an important sector in Germany , which is why changes in Manufacturing PMI can provide a good indicator to the overall economic condition in Germany as well as Euro-zone. However, despite the timeliness of the report, Manufacturing PMI is not a big market mover.
The survey results are quantified into index where 0 represents long term manufacturing business conditions. The headline figure is expressed in percentage change. |
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21:00 |
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PMI Manufacturing
|
May
|
45.9 |
46.1 |
|
|
The Euro-zone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) assesses business conditions in the manufacturing sector. Because the manufacturing sector represents nearly a quarter of total Euro-zone GDP, the Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI is both a significant and timely indicator of business conditions and the general health of the economy. Results are quantified in an index in which values above 50 indicate an expected increase of business conditions and values below 50 signal an expected deterioration. |
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21:00 |
|
Composite PMI
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May
|
46.7 |
46.6 |
|
|
Indicator shows business confidence in the private segment of Eurozone Economy. |
|
21:00 |
|
PMI Services
|
May
|
46.9 |
47.0 |
|
|
Gauge for the overall performance of the German service sector. The Services PMI interviews German executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. Because the performance of the German service sector is extremely consistent over time, services does not impact final GDP figures as much as the more volatile figure on the manufacturing sector. For this reason Services PMI usually causes little market movement. The survey results are quantified and presented as an index on a 1-100 scale. The headline figure is the percentage change in the index. |
|
21:00 |
|
Ifo Business Climate Index
|
May
|
109.9 |
109.5 |
|
|
The Ifo Business Climate Index is a closely followed leading indicator for economic activity in Germany prepared by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research in Munich. It is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses of firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as "good", "satisfactorily" or "poor" and their business expectations for the next six months as "more favourable", "unchanged" or "more unfavourable". The replies are weighted according to the importance of the industry and aggregated. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference of the percentages of the responses "good" and "poor", the balance value of the expectations is the difference of the percentages of the responses "more favourable" and "more unfavourable". The business climate is a mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. |
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21:00 |
|
Ifo Current Assessment
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May
|
117.5 |
117.1 |
|
|
One of the country's key business sentiment surveys (Ifo - Information and Forschung Survey). The survey is conducted monthly, querying German firms on the current German business climate as well as their expectations for the next six months. As the largest economy in the Eurozone, Germany is responsible for approximately a quarter of the total Eurozone GDP.
Consequently, the German Ifo is a significant economic health indicator for the Eurozone as a whole. Positive readings bode well for the economy, suggesting increased consumer spending and economic growth. Conversely, low Ifo readings may be indicative of economic slowdown.
The index uses 100 as a centerline between positive and negative outlooks; the further the value is from 100 the stronger the sentiment. The survey presents two equally weighted sub-indices: Current Assessment and Business Expectations.
Ifo Current Assessment
Measures current German business conditions, without considering future expectations. |
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21:00 |
|
IFO - Expectations
|
May
|
102.7 |
102.0 |
|
|
One of the country's key business sentiment surveys (Ifo - Information and Forschung Survey). The survey is conducted monthly, querying German firms on the current German business climate as well as their expectations for the next six months. As the largest economy in the Eurozone, Germany is responsible for approximately a quarter of the total Eurozone GDP. Consequently, the German Ifo is a significant economic health indicator for the Eurozone as a whole. Positive readings bode well for the economy, suggesting increased consumer spending and economic growth. Conversely, low Ifo readings may be indicative of economic slowdown.
The index uses 100 as a centerline between positive and negative outlooks; the further the value is from 100 the stronger the sentiment. The survey presents two equally weighted sub-indices: Current Assessment and Business Expectations.
Ifo Expectations
Based on firms' expectations for the next six months, where firms rate the future outlook as better, same, or worse. |
|
21:30 |
|
Mortgage Approvals
|
Apr
|
31.9K |
32.3K |
|
|
Number of new mortgages approved for home purchase by BBA-represented banks during the previous month. The BBA represents major banks that make up around 60% of total UK mortgage lending.
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|
21:30 |
|
GDP revised
|
1 quarter
|
-0.2%q/q 0.0% y/y |
-0.2%q/q 0.0% y/y |
|
|
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the value of goods and services produced with in a country. GDP is the most comprehensive overall measure of economic output and provides key insight as to the driving forces of the economy.
Due to the untimeliness of this report and because data on GDP components are available beforehand, the actual GDP figure is usually well anticipated. But given its overall significance GDP has the tendency to move the market upon release, acting to confirm or upset economic expectations. Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of activity that is generally associated with a healthy economy. However economic expansion also raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead to monetary policy tightening.
Technically, Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way:
GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)
where
C = private consumption
I = private investment
G = government expenditure
EX = exports of goods and services
IM = imports of goods and services
The figure is commonly reported in headlines as an annualized percentage, based on quarterly data.
On a technical note: The GDP can be reported in either real or nominal terms, real GDP being adjusted for inflation. |