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00:50 |
|
Merchandise Trade Exports
|
Apr
|
5.9% y/y |
12.2% y/y |
|
|
Reflects changes in the volume of exported goods in relation to the previous year. Higher headline figures bode well for exporters. |
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00:50 |
|
Trade Balance adjusted
|
Apr
|
-JPY621.3bln |
-JPY617.2bln |
|
|
The difference between the total value of exports and the total value of imports. A positive figure indicates a trade surplus while a negative value represents a trade deficit. Because Japan 's economy is highly export-led, trade data can give critical insight into developments in Japan 's economy and changes into foreign exchange rates.
A surplus reflects capital flowing into Japan in exchange for Japanese exports, and a deficit means that capital is flowing out of Japan as imports are purchased in larger volumes by Japanese consumers. A trade surplus will act as an appreciating weight on the Yen, whereas a trade deficit will place downward pressure on the Yen's value.
Details in the Trade Balance report itself give useful insight into changing trends regarding Japanese trade. Such developments are especially important for the country, which is an export-oriented economy that has historically experienced large trade surpluses. Any affect on this could have dramatic affect on the domestic economy.
The headline figure for trade balance is expressed in millions of Yen and usually accompanied by a year-on-year percentage change figure. |
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00:50 |
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Merchandise Trade Imports
|
Apr
|
10.5% y/y |
10.1% y/y |
|
|
Reflects changes in the volume of imported goods in comparison to the previous year. Increase in the figures has negative impact on the trade balance, but yet might be suggestive of more vivid business and consumer activity. |
|
01:00 |
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Leading Index (Conference Board)
|
Mar
|
0.0% m/m |
|
|
|
The Index includes account inventory ratios, machinery orders, stock prices and other leading economic indicators. As the aggregate of many leading indices the Leading Economic Index provides a forecast of the future state of the domestic economy and is thought to predict activity that will occur 6-9 months after the reporting period.
The index operates on a 1-100 scale, where a value lower than 50 means that most indictors are negative and a value higher than 50 means most indicators are positive. In both cases a greater distance from the midpoint (50) means that the indicators are more strongly positive or negative. |
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04:30 |
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BoJ MPC Interest Rate Announcement
|
May
|
0.10% |
0.10% |
|
|
The Bank of Japan Policy Board meets once a month for two days to discuss economic developments inside and outside of the country. The culmination of the meeting is the announcement of any adjustments to interest rates or other aspects of monetary policy.
Like any central bank, the BOJ is tasked with ensuring price stability while taking into account economic growth, employment, and recommendations from the elected government. With this goal in mind, a "Guideline for Money Market Operations" is established at each meeting. Changes in the rate have far-reaching consequences, affecting consumer loans, mortgages, bonds and the exchange rate of the Yen. The statement is the Bank of Japan's collective outlook on the economy as well as a source for clues on future monetary policy decisions. When it comes to interest rates, the future direction of rates is usually far more important than its current rate. |
|
08:30 |
|
Bank of Japan Press Conference
|
May
|
|
|
|
|
Press conference of the BoJ. |
|
9:00 |
|
Current account adjusted
|
Mar
|
-1.3bln |
3.4bln |
|
|
Summarizes the flow of goods, services, income and transfer payments in and out of the Euro-zone nations to other countries. The report gauges how the Euro-zone nations' interact with the rest of the world. Current Account is one of the three components that make up a country's Balance of Payments (Financial Account, Capital Account and Current Account). Where the other side of the Balance of Payments, Capital and Financial Accounts deal mainly with financial assets and investments, the Current Account gives a detailed breakdown of how the country interacts with rest of the global economy on a non-investment basis.
The Current Account tracks the trade balance (exports and imports for goods and services), income payments (such as interest, dividends and salaries) and unilateral transfers (aid, taxes, and one-way gifts). A positive value (current account surplus) indicates that the flow of capital from these components into the Euro-zone exceeds the capital leaving the Euro-zone. A negative value (current account deficit) means that there is a net capital outflow from the Euro-zone. Persistent Current Account deficits may lead to a depreciation of a currency, as trade, income and transfer payments usually reflect that Euros are leaving the Euro Area to make payments abroad. Conversely, underlying surpluses act as an appreciating weight on the Euro.
The Euro-zone has a historically had an export oriented economy and has relied on exports as the engine for economic expansion. To this day, trade surpluses form the foundation of Euro-zone current account surpluses.
There are a number of factors that often work to diminish the impact of the Current Account release on the market. The report is not very timely; released monthly at least a month after the reporting period. In addition, many of the components that lead to the final Current Account, such as production and trade figures, are known well in advance. Lastly, since the report reflects data for a specific reporting month, any significant developments in the Current Account should theoretically have been already felt during that quarter.
But just like GDP and Trade Balance, Current Account is central to forecasting long term developments in foreign exchange rates. It gives a detailed picture of how the Euro-zone's aggregate economy interacts internationally, breaking down these exchanges into separate components that can be tracked and often anticipated. Thus the weight of the Current Account has led it historically to be one of the more important reports out of the Euro-zone.
The headline figure is expressed in billions of Euros.
|
|
9:30 |
|
Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel
|
Apr
|
1.5% m/m 2.8% y/y |
-0.7% m/m 0.7% y/y |
|
|
A monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes. The retail sales index is often taken as an indicator of consumer confidence. |
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9:30 |
|
Retail Sales
|
Apr
|
1.8% m/m 3.3% y/y |
-0.7% m/m 1.0% y/y |
|
|
Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Retail Sales is a leading indicator for the economy. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures.
The headline figure is expressed as the percentage change from the same month last year. |
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9:30 |
|
Bank of England Meeting Minutes
|
May
|
0-0-9 |
0-0-9 |
|
|
The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee keeps notes from its rate decision meetings. The detailed minutes from these meetings give some of the best insight into the monetary policy decision making process and what the BOE thinks about economic developments inside and outside of the UK. Because minutes come out two weeks after the BOE meets, markets will discount some information in the report. Market participants tend to read into the overall mood the Bank of England gives during the meeting. If the BOE is cautious about the inflationary outlook for the economy (characterized as "Hawkish"), then the market has a higher likelihood of future rate increases. If the Bank is optimistic ("Dovish") it suggests to markets that inflation is in check and that future rate increases are less likely. |
|
10:00 |
|
Industrial New Orders
|
Mar
|
-1.3% m/m -6.1% y/y |
-0.1% m/m |
|
|
The value of new contracts for goods produced by the manufacturing sector. A rising level of Industrial New Orders forecasts increased production and a rising GDP. There are two headline numbers released for this report, month to month and annualized change.
Note: Although the industrial manufacturing sector contributes only a quarter of Euro-zone GDP, it accounts for most of the variations in GDP. |
|
11:00 |
|
CBI industrial order books balance
|
May
|
-8 |
-9 |
|
|
This review reflects businessmen sentiment concerning the position of the industrial sector of the economy. |
|
12:00 |
|
MBA Mortgage Applications
|
May
|
9.2% |
|
|
|
Gauges demand for mortgage application in the US . Tracking new home mortgages and refinances, MBA Mortgage Applications Survey serves at a current indicator for the US housing market. Growth in mortgages suggests a healthy housing market. Due to the multiplier effect housing has on the rest of the economy, rising activity suggests increased household income and economic expansion. The headline figure is the weekly percentage change in the MBA Mortgage Applications figure.
Among the various indices measured in the survey, the purchase index and refinancing index most accurately reflect where the housing market is headed. The purchasing index measures the change in existing home sales in all mortgage applications, while the refinance index measures the mortgage refinancing activity in all mortgage applications.
Note: Due to volatility in the sector, markets also focus on the four week moving averages. |
|
13:30 |
|
Retail Sales
|
Mar
|
-0.2% m/m |
0.4% m/m |
|
|
Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Retail Sales is a leading indicator for the economy. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures.
The headline figure is expressed as the percentage change from the same month last year. |
|
13:30 |
|
Retail Sales Ex-Auto
|
Mar
|
0.5% m/m |
0.6% m/m |
|
|
Monthly measure of sales of goods to consumers at retail outlets. The figure is a significant market mover, valuable both for its timeliness and insight into consumer demand and consumer confidence. Consumer spending is vital to the US economy, accounting for more than two-thirds of all economic activity. Given that retail sales make up a hefty one third of such spending, the Advanced Retail Sales figure acts as a measure of consumer demand before GDP is released.
The figure has its limits, though. For instance, the timely release of the report comes at the cost of volatility in the figures and significant monthly revisions. It is not unusual for the figure to come out positive one month, only to be subsequently revised as negative. Retail Sales can also be volatile due to seasonality. Additionally, the report has been criticized for excluding service sector sales and failing to adjust for inflation. Despite these drawbacks, the figure still moves the market on release, mainly because of the importance of consumer spending to the Canadian economy.
The Retail Sales figure is calculated as the total receipts of retail sales in nominal dollars based on a sample of stores throughout the month - returns, taxes and finance charges are excluded. It appears in the headlines as the annualize percentage change from the previous month.
Advance Retail Sales Less Autos
The Retail Sales figure is also reported excluding automobile sales. Given their high cost, auto sales contribute significantly to retails sales, comprising nearly a quarter of the figure. As a result, changes in automobile sales can produce high fluctuations in the retails sales report. Vehicle sales are prone to seasonal changes, thereby easily distorting retail sales trends. To provide a more accurate picture of retail sales the auto component is removed and followed more closely. |
|
13:30 |
|
Leading Indicators
|
Apr
|
0.4% m/m |
0.3% m/m |
|
|
A composite index designed to forecast developments in the Canadian economy. Movements in the ten indicators that comprise Leading Indicators are known to precede larger developments in the rest of the economy. Growth in the index suggests a healthy and growing economy. Indicators include stock market indices, the money supply, a number of durable goods indicators, the average workweek in the manufacturing sector, the real money supply, the US leading index, and business and personal services employment. Technical Note : The headline value is the percentage change in the composite index from the previous month. The index is smoothed out by averaging the data of the most recent 5 months. The index is not weighted, and is compared to an initial 1992 base year value of 100. Each point above 100 represents a 1% increase from the 1992 values. For example, if the index is at 105, it means that the index is 5% higher than what it was in 1992. |
|
15:00 |
|
House Price Index
|
Mar
|
0.3% m/m |
0.4% m/m |
|
|
A resumptive index of house prices reflecting prices for new constructions and resale real estate markets. As all indices connected with the construction industry it can be seasonally adjusted. |
|
15:00 |
|
New Home Sales
|
Apr
|
328K -7.1% m/m |
335K 2.1% m/m |
|
|
Sales of newly constructed residences in the United States. The figure is a timely gauge of housing market conditions counting home sales when initial housing contracts are signed. Because New Home Sales usually trigger a sequence of consumption, they have significant market impact upon release. In addition to the high expenditure of the new home, buyers are likely to spend more money on furnishing customizing and financing their home. Consequently, growth in the housing market spurs more consumption, generating demand for goods, services and the employees who provide them.
Generally the housing market is tracked by a number of reports that mark different stages of the construction and home sale process. The first stage is Building Permits, which precede Housing Starts, which lead to Construction Spending, MBA Mortgage Applications and, finally, New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales. As the headline housing figure, New Home Sales are believed to control for some of the volatility of other data. For instance, Building Permits and Housing Starts are considered more indicative of business confidence and production rather than consumer spending. And while Existing Home Sales figures are more indicative of consumer expenditures, they are lagging indicators with less predictive value. New Home Sales numbers are considered confirmatory of housing trends and still predictive of consumer spending.
New Home Sales is also a good indicator of economic turning points due to its sensitivity to consumer income. Buying a house is always a major expenditure, typically only undertaken when consumers have sufficient savings or are optimistic about future earnings. Historically, when economic conditions slow, New Home Sales are one of the first indicators to reflect the change. By the same token, New Home Sales undergo substantial growth when the economy has emerged from recession and wages have begun to pick up.
The report headline is the total amount of properties sold.
|
|
23:45 |
|
Trade Balance
|
Apr
|
134M |
400M |
|
|
A country's trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payment, giving valuable insight into pressures on country's currency.
Surpluses and Deficits
A positive Trade Balance (surplus) indicates that exports are greater than imports. When imports exceed exports, the country experiences a trade deficit. Because foreign goods are usually purchased using foreign currency, trade deficits usually reflect currency leaking out of the country. Such currency outflows may lead to a natural depreciation unless countered by comparable capital inflows (inflows in the form of investments, FDI - where foreigners investing in local equity, bond or real estates markets). At a bare minimum, deficits fundamentally weigh down the value of the currency.
Ramifications of Trade Balance on Markets
There are a number of factors that work to diminish the market impact of Trade Balance upon immediate release. The report is not very timely, coming some time after the reporting period. Developments in many of the figure's components are also typically anticipated well beforehand. Lastly, since the report reflects data for a specific reporting month or quarter, any significant changes in the Trade Balance should plausibly have already been felt during that period - and not during the release of data.
However, because of the overall significance of Trade Balance data in forecasting trends in the Forex Market, the release has historically been one of the most important reports out of the any country. |