FX.co ★ USD/CAD Elliott Wave Count for April 19, 2012

USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the USD/CAD pair was trading within the sideways movement developing 4 wave (coloured blue). During the European session we could observe the price starting in a descending movement towards 0.9880. We can consider this move as wave B (coloured pink) of the bigger 4 wave, therefore during the session in New York we could observe the bullish mood in the USD/CAD pair that brought this major to the 0.9915 level (wave C), the major did not manage to hold this level and price fell back to 0.9882 (wave D). At the end of the session in New York we could observe the price touching the 0.9924 level (50EMA resistance). We can consider this move as the end of triangle in a 4 wave. Today the USD/CAD pair has started in a bearish mood and we could observe the price to return to the 0.9885 level. Presently we can observe the developing of the 5 wave of the bigger 3 wave. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 261.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (0.9923-0.9902-13); the First Take Profit at 0.9870 (200% of wave 1) and second Take Profit at 0.9857 (261.8% of wave 1). As Stop Loss the resistance point at 0.9900 can be used. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S Unemployment Claims, Existing Home Sales, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and G20 Meetings that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9863 (S2) 0.9879 (S1) 0.9889 (PP) 0.9905 (R1) 0.9921 (R2) 0.9931 (R3) 0.9947

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules today the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 0.9880 with Stop Loss at 0.9900, Take Profit 1 at 0.9870 and Take Profit 2 at 0.9857 are recommended.