FX.co ★ Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 30, 2015

Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate in a higher range as markets await the US 4Q flash GDP (forecast +3.2%) and the US 4Q employment cost index (forecast +0.6%)at 13:30 GMT . USD/JPY is underpinned by the reduced safe haven appeal of the yen amid improved global risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 8.22% to 18.76; S&P 500 closed up 0.95% at 2,021.25 overnight) and the bullish dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 94.68 versus 94.62 early Thursday) on fewer than expected U.S. jobless claims 265,000 for the week ended on January 24 - it turned out to be at the lowest level since April 2000 (versus forecast 300,000). USD/JPY is also supported by the higher US Treasury yields (10-year at 1.764% versus 1.728% late Wednesday), demand from Japan's importers and the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD sentiment are dented by the surprise 3.7% drop in the US pending home sales index to 100.7 in December (versus forecast +0.6%). USD/JPY gains are also tempered by the Japanese exports and positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, stochastics is neutral, five and 15-day moving averages are meandering sideways.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 117.55. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 17.20. The pivot point stands at 118.45. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 118.75 and the second target at 119.

Resistance levels:
118.75
119
119.35
Support levels:
17.55
17.20
116.80