FX.co ★ Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 01, 2014

Fundamental Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a six-year high 109.86 on Tuesday. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit four-year-high 86.218 Tuesday, last at 85.93 versus 85.62 early Tuesday) on relatively hawkish Federal Reserve's monetary policy and outperformance of the U.S. economy versus other major economies. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japanese importers, higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.495% versus 2.479% late Monday) and weak yen sentiment on surprise 1.5% on-month drop in Japan's August industrial production (versus forecast +0.3%) and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD sentiment is dented by the bigger-than-expected drop in Conference Board U.S. consumer confidence index to 86.0 in September from a revised 93.4 in August (versu forecast 92.8), worse-than-expected drop in U.S. ISM-Chicago PMI to 60.5 in September from 64.3 in August (versus forecast 62.0). USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japanese export sales and diminished investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 2.07% to 16.31, S&P 500 slipped 0.28% overnight to close at 1,972.29) amid caution ahead of the European Central bank's interest rate decision Thursday and U.S. non-farm payrolls data Friday, while pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong (crowds expected to increase Wednesday as two-day holiday starts) and lower final HSBC China September manufacturing PMI of 50.2 versus preliminary reading of 50.5 added to concerns over global economic outlook.

Technical comment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at the overbought zone, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 110.30. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 110.55. The pivot point stands at 109.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 109.20 and the second target at 108.80.

Resistance levels:
110.30
110.55
110.85

Support levels:
109.20
108.80
108.50