Market Holiday - Labour Day.

Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed investors and analysts. Above 0.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism. This is a survey of about 2,800 investors and analysts which asks respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook for the Eurozone.
 

Measures the current economic activity based on a composite of indicators that track current business conditions in Japan . The headline number is derived by comparing the number of expanding indicators to the total number of indicators used. A headline number reading of 50% means that half of the available indicators are expanding.

Included in the index are; the expansion or contraction of industrial production, capacity utilization, retail and wholesale sales, power consumption, non-scheduled work hours, the job-offer rate and operating profits.

The Index includes account inventory ratios, machinery orders, stock prices and other leading economic indicators. As the aggregate of many leading indices the Leading Economic Index provides a forecast of the future state of the domestic economy and is thought to predict activity that will occur 6-9 months after the reporting period.

The index operates on a 1-100 scale, where a value lower than 50 means that most indictors are negative and a value higher than 50 means most indicators are positive. In both cases a greater distance from the midpoint (50) means that the indicators are more strongly positive or negative.

Dollar volume of new orders, shipments, unfilled orders and inventories as reported by domestic manufacturers. Factor Orders is not a widely watched economic release. The Advance Release on Durable Goods Activity reported one week earlier tends grab more market attention, given that durable goods make up more than half of factory orders.

Factor Orders does provide a comprehensive look at the manufacturing sector. Specifically, the New Orders figure can act as a gauge of demand across industries while Shipments are indicative of supply. The Unfilled Orders and Inventory figures reconcile the balance between New Orders and Shipments; high Shipments are indicative of an excess of demand relative to supply, high Inventories signal an excess of supply over demand.

Figures are reported in billions of dollars and also in percent change from the previous month.

On a Technical Note: The New Orders figure measures the value of orders received by manufacturers for new products from both domestic and foreign sources. The total value of products shipped is calculated in Shipments while Unfilled Orders measures the value of goods backlogged for order but not yet shipped. Lastly, Inventories gauges the amount of unsold goods held by manufacturers .

The total value of machinery orders placed at major manufacturers in Japan . Machine Orders is considered the best leading indicator of business capital spending, and increases are indicative of stronger business confidence and a better forward outlook. Higher capital spending is also positive for the Japanese employment situation, as companies will generally require new employees to run new machinery. The headline figure is the seasonally-adjusted month-on-month and annualized percentage change.

The value of all outstanding loans with Japanese banks. Bank lending is important because lending increases with increased business confidence and investment. It is particularly insightful for the Japanese economy because of the weakness that has plagued the Japanese banking sector. The headline number is for total loans and discounts and is a percentage change from the previous year.

Measure of the money supply used by the Bank of Japan. The figure includes all currency in circulation plus all bank deposits. This indicator tends to track closely with the total money supply. The figure focuses mostly on individual deposit accounts rather than institutional accounts, making it a more attractive money indicator than broad liquidity measures.

The headline figure is the percentage change from the previous year.

The Japanese current account balance, called the Current Account Total, summarizes the flow of goods, services, income and transfers in and out of Japan . The Current Account is more expansive than the trade balance as it also includes transfer payments, such as foreign aid, and income flows, which are the returns on investments in foreign assets. Nonetheless, the most significant component of the Japanese current account is the trade balance figure. Japan has historically had an export oriented economy and has relied on exports as the engine for overall economic expansion. Today still, trade surpluses form the foundation of consistent Japanese current account surpluses.

The Current Account is useful as a measure of net international trade flows, which directly affect currency values. A current account surplus reflects Yen flowing into Japan and this puts pressure on Yen to appreciate. On the contrary, a current account deficit means that more Yen are leaving the country from these sources, and this exerts downward pressure on the Yen.

The headline figure is the Yen-value of the Current Account.

The difference between the total value of exports and the total value of imports. A positive figure indicates a trade surplus while a negative value represents a trade deficit. Because Japan 's economy is highly export-led, trade data can give critical insight into developments in Japan 's economy and changes into foreign exchange rates.

A surplus reflects capital flowing into Japan in exchange for Japanese exports, and a deficit means that capital is flowing out of Japan as imports are purchased in larger volumes by Japanese consumers. A trade surplus will act as an appreciating weight on the Yen, whereas a trade deficit will place downward pressure on the Yen's value.

Details in the Trade Balance report itself give useful insight into changing trends regarding Japanese trade. Such developments are especially important for the country, which is an export-oriented economy that has historically experienced large trade surpluses. Any affect on this could have dramatic affect on the domestic economy.

The headline figure for trade balance is expressed in millions of Yen and usually accompanied by a year-on-year percentage change figure.

Tracks developments in the number and value of outstanding home loans in Australia . Home Loans are a measure of activity in the housing market. The figure, also know as Owner Occupied Housing Loans, acts as a gauge for consumer confidence, since consumers usually take out large loans only when they have sufficient saving or believe they will be able to pay them back in the future.

The sales of a new home usually trigger a sequence of consumption. In addition to the high expenditure of the new home, buyers are likely to spend more money on furnishing and customizing their home. Consequently, g rowth in the housing market spurs more consumption, generating demand for goods, services and the employees to provide them. Thus a n increase in loans may forecasts growth in the economy.

The headline figure is the percentage change in the value of outstanding loans from the previous month.

Measures the number of companies that filed for bankruptcy in the last month, with liabilities of over 10 million Yen. The headline figure is the number of cases in all Japan for the last month. As an economic indicator the bankruptcies report is ambiguous. A high value can certainly indicate weakness in the Japanese economy, but the number of bankruptcies can fall even as the economy worsens. Generally a higher number of bankruptcies will be part of a larger picture of economic weakness, which can be a depreciating weight on a currency.

The Economy Watchers Survey asks business-cycle sensitive workers their thoughts on existing and future economic conditions, giving a detailed picture of economic trends in Japan . The survey is based on questionnaires from 'man on the street' sectors that are particularly vulnerable to business cycle turns. These segments of the economy include sectors such as retail, restaurant service, and taxi driving. With this combined data the Japanese Eco Watchers report serves as both a consumer confidence indicator and a leading indicator for the rest of the economy. The report is usually released less than two weeks after the reporting month, thus its statistics are usually very timely. The headline number is released where 50 represents the center midpoint line of boom/bust sentiment.

The difference between exports and imports of Euro-zone goods and services. The Trade Balance is one of the biggest components of Europe's Balance of Payment, and thus gives valuable insight into pressures on the value of the Euro.

A negative Trade Balance figure (deficit) indicates that imports are greater than imports. When exports are greater than imports, the Euro-zone experiences a trade surplus. Trade surpluses indicate that funds are coming into Europe in exchange for exported goods and services. Because such exported goods are usually purchased with Euros, trade surpluses typically indicates that currency is flowing into the Euro-zone. Such currency inflows may lead to a natural appreciation of a Euro, unless countered by similar capital outflows. At a bare minimum, surpluses will buoy the value of the currency.

There are a number of factors that work to diminish the market impact of Euro-zone Balance of Trade. The report is not very timely, released fifty days after the reporting period. In addition, developments in many of the Trade Balance's components are typically well anticipated. Lastly, since the report reflects data for a specific reporting month, any significant changes in the Trade Balance should plausibly have been already felt during that month and not during the release of data. Despite these considerations, and because of the overall significance of Trade Balance data, the release has historically been one of the more important reports out of Europe .

The headline figure for trade balance is expressed in millions of Euros, and usually accompanied by the year-on-year percentage change.

Summarizes the flow of goods, services, income and transfer payments in and out of the Euro-zone nations to other countries. The report gauges how the Euro-zone nations' interact with the rest of the world. Current Account is one of the three components that make up a country's Balance of Payments (Financial Account, Capital Account and Current Account). Where the other side of the Balance of Payments, Capital and Financial Accounts deal mainly with financial assets and investments, the Current Account gives a detailed breakdown of how the country interacts with rest of the global economy on a non-investment basis.

The Current Account tracks the trade balance (exports and imports for goods and services), income payments (such as interest, dividends and salaries) and unilateral transfers (aid, taxes, and one-way gifts). A positive value (current account surplus) indicates that the flow of capital from these components into the Euro-zone exceeds the capital leaving the Euro-zone. A negative value (current account deficit) means that there is a net capital outflow from the Euro-zone. Persistent Current Account deficits may lead to a depreciation of a currency, as trade, income and transfer payments usually reflect that Euros are leaving the Euro Area to make payments abroad. Conversely, underlying surpluses act as an appreciating weight on the Euro.

The Euro-zone has a historically had an export oriented economy and has relied on exports as the engine for economic expansion. To this day, trade surpluses form the foundation of Euro-zone current account surpluses.

There are a number of factors that often work to diminish the impact of the Current Account release on the market. The report is not very timely; released monthly at least a month after the reporting period. In addition, many of the components that lead to the final Current Account, such as production and trade figures, are known well in advance. Lastly, since the report reflects data for a specific reporting month, any significant developments in the Current Account should theoretically have been already felt during that quarter.

But just like GDP and Trade Balance, Current Account is central to forecasting long term developments in foreign exchange rates. It gives a detailed picture of how the Euro-zone's aggregate economy interacts internationally, breaking down these exchanges into separate components that can be tracked and often anticipated. Thus the weight of the Current Account has led it historically to be one of the more important reports out of the Euro-zone.

The headline figure is expressed in billions of Euros.

A country's trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payment, giving valuable insight into pressures on country's currency.

Surpluses and Deficits
A positive Trade Balance (surplus) indicates that exports are greater than imports. When imports exceed exports, the country experiences a trade deficit. Because foreign goods are usually purchased using foreign currency, trade deficits usually reflect currency leaking out of the country. Such currency outflows may lead to a natural depreciation unless countered by comparable capital inflows (inflows in the form of investments, FDI - where foreigners investing in local equity, bond or real estates markets). At a bare minimum, deficits fundamentally weigh down the value of the currency.

Ramifications of Trade Balance on Markets
There are a number of factors that work to diminish the market impact of Trade Balance upon immediate release. The report is not very timely, coming some time after the reporting period. Developments in many of the figure's components are also typically anticipated well beforehand. Lastly, since the report reflects data for a specific reporting month or quarter, any significant changes in the Trade Balance should plausibly have already been felt during that period - and not during the release of data.

However, because of the overall significance of Trade Balance data in forecasting trends in the Forex Market, the release has historically been one of the more important reports out of the any country.

A resumptive index of house prices reflecting prices for new constructions and resale real estate markets. As all indices connected with the construction industry it can be seasonally adjusted.

A measure of the manufacturing output of the energy sector, factories, and mines. Industrial production is significant as a short term indicator of the strength of UK industrial activity. Industry accounts for about a quarter of overall GDP. Because industrial production accounts for most of the volatility in GDP, foreknowledge of trends in manufacturing go a long way in forecasting UK output. High or rising Industrial Production figures suggest increased production and economic expansion, healthy for the Pound. However, uncontrolled levels of production and consumption can spark inflation. In times of inflation the Bank of England may raise interest rates to control growth.

This report is a feature of Great Britain industrial sector. The index number of industrial production is the basic component of GDP.

Measures the per volume change in output from mining, quarrying, manufacturing, energy and construction sectors in Germany . Industrial production is significant as a short term indicator of the strength of German industrial activity. High or rising Industrial Production figures suggest increased production and economic expansion, healthy for the Euro. However, uncontrolled levels of production and consumption can spark inflation.

The report is only a preliminary estimate figure that does not move the markets much. The figure is released in headlines as a monthly percent change.

Gauges demand for mortgage application in the US . Tracking new home mortgages and refinances, MBA Mortgage Applications Survey serves at a current indicator for the US housing market. Growth in mortgages suggests a healthy housing market. Due to the multiplier effect housing has on the rest of the economy, rising activity suggests increased household income and economic expansion. The headline figure is the weekly percentage change in the MBA Mortgage Applications figure.

Among the various indices measured in the survey, the purchase index and refinancing index most accurately reflect where the housing market is headed. The purchasing index measures the change in existing home sales in all mortgage applications, while the refinance index measures the mortgage refinancing activity in all mortgage applications.

Note: Due to volatility in the sector, markets also focus on the four week moving averages.

The number of new building projects authorized for construction. The figure is widely used as an indicator for developments in the housing market, since receiving a permit to build is the first step in the construction process. Thus growth in Building Permits reflects growth in the construction sector. Also, due to the high outlays needed for construction projects, an increase in Building Permits suggests corporate and consumer optimism. Additionally, because leading indicators for the housing market respond quickly to changes in the business cycle, the Building Permit figure can act as a leading indicator for the economy as a whole.

The headline is the seasonally adjusted percentage change in Building Permits from the previous month.

A monthly measure of the change in purchases by corporate executives. One hundred and seventy-five managers distributed among different regions and sectors are asked: "Are your purchases higher, the same, or lower than the previous month" A headline value above 50 indicates an increase in purchases from the previous month and a value below 50 indicates a decrease.

The PMI can be used to measure business optimism and forecast economic growth. Business firms increase purchases and spending in response to growing demand for their goods and services, a high PMI suggests overall expectation for an expanding economy. Furthermore, if businesses are optimistic of future economic conditions they will increase spending now in order to prepare for future demand in their goods and services.

Note : The Institute of Supply Management publishes a similar index known as the "Reports on Business" for the United States . Unlike the Canadian PMI, the Reports on Businesses uses mid-month data, adjusts for seasonality, and asks a combination of five questions. As a result, the Canadian PMI tends to have larger month to month movements than the U.S. version.

Report on current economic conditions in each of the 12 Federal Reserve districts covering the entire US. Regional Banks in the Federal Reserve System gather anecdotal information based on surveys of executives, economist and market participants. The Beige Book summarizes this data into a relatively short document, giving a picture of economic trends and challenges faced by different parts of the nation.

In addition to providing useful information on the economy, the report is also a window into how FOMC members may vote at the next interest rate policy meeting. Because each report is based on anecdotal information as much as statistics, it is subjective and may reflect opinions of district governors. As the only comprehensive report made available to the public, the Beige Book provides a rare opportunity for markets to better understand the Federal Reserve and its views on the economy.

Measures the outstanding debt held by consumers. Consumer Credit levels coincide with the economy, rising during economic expansion and dropping during a recession. Growth in Consumer Credit means that consumers have higher spending ability, which can fuel economic growth. However, too much Consumer Debt can result in an economic slowdown in the long term if consumers become overburdened with debt, then either reducing consumption or passing debt on to the financers after bankruptcy. The headline value is the outstanding debt held by consumers.

The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.

Note: The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems.

Consumer confidence is a measure of popular sentiment concerning the Japanese economy. The figure is derived from a survey that asks thousands of Japanese consumers about personal expenditure patterns and inflationary expectations. In general, rising consumer confidence precedes increased consumer spending, which drives both economic growth and inflation. Even though the Japanese economy is heavily driven by its export sector, domestic consumer confidence is an important gauge of overall economic activity and future inflationary pressures.

A headline figure above 50 shows positive consumer sentiment, while a number below 50 shows negative consumer sentiment; the greater the distance, the stronger the sentiment.

The amount of international reserves reflects the external - economic turnover and capital flows during earlier periods.

The European Central Bank releases the monthly bulletin.

A gauge of Britain's trade with countries outside of Europe. The headline figure, expressed in billions of Pounds, is the value of exports to Non European Union countries minus the value of imports from those countries. A positive value represents a trade surplus while a negative value amounts to a trade deficit. The value of Great Britain's non-EU trade is about 30% less than that of its intra-EU trade, and the distinction between EU and non-EU figures can help investors anticipate which currency pairs will be most affected by changes in the UK trade balance.

A country's trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payment, giving valuable insight into pressures on country's currency.

Reflects the rate of growth in housing construction. Housing Starts act as an indicator measuring the strength of Canada's construction sector and housing market. Economists also use the figure as a leading indicator for the economy as a whole due to Housing Starts' sensitivity to changes in the business cycle. Housing Starts slow at the onset of a recession and quickly grow at the beginning of an economic boom; consequently, a high Housing Starts figure forecasts strong economic growth.

The headline figure is the percentage change in new home starts.

A component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that measures changes in prices for new homes. Higher housing prices suggest stronger consumer demand and growth in the housing market. At the same time, higher housing prices that accompany economic expansion often lead to inflationary pressures. The headline number is the percentage change in the index.

Note: The New Housing Price Index takes into account the quality and features of the new homes sold. For example, if selling prices for new homes are unchanged, but the features and quality of housing have increased (e.g. added swimming pool and better construction materials), then the price for new homes is considered to have fallen.

The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes.
 

A country's trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payment, giving valuable insight into pressures on country's currency.

A country's trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payment, giving valuable insight into pressures on country's currency.

The Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index measures prices for goods purchased by Japanese corporations. As prices for input materials and the overall cost of manufacturing change, companies adjust retail prices accordingly. The CGPI comprehensively tracks these supply-side price pressures and increases in the index often precede upward movement in the CPI. If an increase in the CGPI is followed by a rise in the CPI, concerns about inflation may prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. The headline numbers are the percentage change in the index month or month and annually.

Note : The index's base year is the year 2000 and the base value is 100. Thus, an index value of 105 signifies a 5% increase in prices since the year 2000. The data report also contains individual indexes for each commodity category used in the Wholesale Price Index.

The monetary base is the volume of money in the economy consists of the currency (banknotes and coins) in circulation and the commercial banks reserves in the Central Bank.

Measures the level of production of French industries. French Industrial Production tracks relative changes in the production of goods, excluding energy and food, whether they are sold domestically or abroad. The headline figure is the percentage change in the index from the previous quarter or year.

Industrial Production is highly sensitive to the business cycle, and so can forecast changes in employment, earnings, and personal income. Consequently, Industrial Production is considered a reliable leading indicator of the overall health of the French economy.

Measures the volume change of output of the manufacturing and energy sector. The industrial sector contributes to only a quarter of the Euro-zone GDP. However, most variations in GDP come from the industrial sector, whereas other sectors that contribute far more to national output historically have been very consistent regardless of economic cycles. That is why tracking industrial production is very important for forecasting GDP changes.

Note: The Industrial Production figure can be adjusted for the number of working days in the given time period and/or seasonally to account for weather related changes in production.

A monthly survey that measures change in input prices as incurred by UK manufacturers. Input prices include the cost of materials used plus operation costs of running the business. The index can be used as a measure of inflation, given that higher input costs will likely be passed on from producers to consumers in the form of higher retail prices. Th e figure is also calculated as Core Input PPI, which excludes volatile inputs such as food and energy that may distort the data. As such, the core figure is a more appropriate measure of inflation.

The headline is the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (Input) from the previous quarter and previous year.

A monthly survey that measures the price changes of goods produced by UK manufacturers. The figure is also known as "Factory Gate Price" because it usually matches the price of goods when they first leave the factory. Increased prices in manufacturing typically lead to higher retail prices for consumers. However, it is also likely that higher output prices are caused by manufacturers charging a higher premium due to higher demand for their goods. Consequently, market trends in consumption should be considered with Output PPI to avoid data misinterpretation.

There is also a Core Output PPI, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy. The Core PPI is generally a better measure of inflation because it excludes those items whose short-term price fluctuations can distort inflationary data.

The headline is the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (Output) from the previous quarter and previous year.

A comprehensive measure of an overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP is a significant report, serving as one of the primary indicators of a country's overall economic health.

Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency. At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may prompt monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Thus positive GDP readings are generally bullish for the currency, while negative readings are generally bearish.

Most production reports that lead to GDP are released before the official GDP number. Therefore, actual GDP figures usually confirm expectations. However, an unexpected release can move markets due to the significance of the figure.

Technically, Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way:

GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)

where
C = private consumption
I = private investment
G = government expenditure
EX = exports of goods and services
IM = imports of goods and services

The headline figures for GDP are the percentage growth rate from the previous quarter and the annualized percentage change in GDP. Prices used are benchmarked to 1997 prices.

The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.

Note: The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems.

The stock of unsold goods held by wholesalers. Wholesalers act as intermediaries between manufacturers or importers, and retailers. Wholesalers sell directly to retailers, who strive to act in accordance (ideally) with consumer demand. Consequently, high Wholesale Inventories indicate that unsold goods are piling up, suggesting that retailers are facing lagging consumer demand and unwilling to purchase goods. Conversely, declining Wholesale Inventories suggest retailers are buying more goods to meet strong or rising demand. Because Wholesale Inventories reflect the demand retailers have for their manufacturers' wares, the report offers an early indication of the potential strength of consumer spending.

Wholesale Inventories are reported in headlines as a percent change from the previous month.